Always a tough call. The third leg of the TC is usually the one that gets them. Trainers like to throw in fresh specialty horses to the mix, which makes it more difficult. If American Pharoah came out of the Derby fit, he has a good chance of winning the Preakness. But the Derby wasn't a walk in the park for him. One more race like that and I'm betting that he won't have enough left for the Belmont..
I love this horse and I had him in the derby but I think the Preakness will present a great betting opportunity to bet against him when his odds are at there worst. A few reasons why, this the deepest 3rd old class in a long time. There's a good chance his main rivals arent going to skip this years preakness making it a much tougher race for him to win and lastly Espinoza whipped the shit out of him in the derby 32times that race took alot out of him. He is gonna go off at 3-5 or 4-5 im all set with that. There is gonna be tons of better value in other good quality horses in that race if they decide to run. If he beats me at 3-5 so be it.
But the Derby wasn't a walk in the park for him.
He toyed with those horses.....How many horse`s from the Derby will challenge him in the Preakness?....1 Firing Line?
He destroyed that field.....PERIOD!
| 1 | American Pharoah | --- |
| 2 | Firing Line | 1 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 3 |
| 4 | Frosted | 3¼ |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | 6½ |
| 6 | Materiality | 7¾ |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 8¾ |
| 8 | Mubtaahij | 9 ¼ |
| 9 | Itsaknockout | 10½ |
| 10 | Carpe Diem | 11 |
| 11 | Frammento | 12 |
| 12 | Bolo | 12¾ |
| 13 | Mr. Z | 15½ |
| 14 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | 15½ |
| 15 | Far Right | 15¾ |
| 16 | War Story | 19¼ |
| 17 | Tencendur | 35 |
| 18 | Upstart | 60½ |
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Does anybody know why International Star was scratched from the Derby? If his trainer brings him back for the Belmont, I think with his running style he's got the best chance of winning the Belmont. Plus he'll be a fresh horse. Baffert also has an interesting decision to make with his other horse Dortmund. This horse is a real threat to AP. Especially at the shorter distance, or if they let him get out there by himself without a rabbit. Being a speed horse, I left Dortmund off the back end of my trifecta's because I thought he would either finish first or not finish. But he hung in there much better than I thought he would.
This might be the smallest Preakness field in years......The Preakness will be a cake walk.
The Belmont will have fresh newcomers.......That I always the test.
The Belmont will have fresh newcomers.......That I always the test.
All 3 broke perfect and were 1,2,3 the entire race so all 3 had perfect trips. Dortmund just couldn't get the distance because he didn't go that fast but still tired. He might be better at the shorter Preakness distance. AP and Firing Line are pretty equal horses at this stage with only the slightest of edge to AP since he won the Derby.
If the field I posted above does run( I got the info off DRF so I considered it pretty accurate) it should a very good race. The interesting horse for me will be Materiality, who got a poor break in the Derby and stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses at the start and was 12 lengths back at first call. However, he worked his way thru to finish 6th, just 7 lengths back and had one of the faster closing times for final 1/4. If he gets a good break in Preakness and is in the battle up front also, it could make things interesting.
For AP to win the Triple Crown, I think he will need to be a great horse. Only time will tell if he is.
If the field I posted above does run( I got the info off DRF so I considered it pretty accurate) it should a very good race. The interesting horse for me will be Materiality, who got a poor break in the Derby and stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses at the start and was 12 lengths back at first call. However, he worked his way thru to finish 6th, just 7 lengths back and had one of the faster closing times for final 1/4. If he gets a good break in Preakness and is in the battle up front also, it could make things interesting.
For AP to win the Triple Crown, I think he will need to be a great horse. Only time will tell if he is.
