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| Last 30 Days | 33 | 46 | 0.00 | -9.80 |
| Season to Date | 54 | 63 | 0.00 | +3.15 |
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Listed pitchers must go
All plays are for 2 units
Atlanta+120 over MIAMI
Shelby Miller displayed underwhelming skills in 2014, but he's off to a tremendous start in his first season with the Braves and he's showing no signs of regression. In 45 innings over seven starts, Miller has aBB/K split of 15/39. Those 39 K's come with the support of afirst-pitch strike rate of 63% and a swing and miss rate of 12%.Miller's groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 49%/20%/32% is also outstanding. Miller comes into this start with a WHIP of 0.93 and a skills supported ERA of 1.60. Obviously he will not be able to maintain that low of an ERA but ever since he's been under the tutelage of a new pitching coach in Atlanta, Miller has been thriving. Blessed with 94 MPH heat, Miller had understandably been a four-seam heavy pitcher for the entirety of his professional career but he was not getting the desired results. Miller subsequently moved to a two-seamer/sinker approach and recorded a 2.92 ERA in the second half of last year. Even though his 4.20 xERA was still not very impressive, it was better than his first half mark of 4.77. Much of his improved production was backed by a big decrease in his line drive rate, from 21.6% in the first half to 15.1% in the second half,along with a big decrease in his walk rate. So far this year, the two-seamer has been Miller’s most utilized pitch. From last winter to this year Miller also added a cut-fastball, which has been his best pitch in terms of PITCHf/x pitch values. The change in approach has turned Miller from a fly-ball heavy pitcher to having a more ground-ball oriented arsenal. With his new arsenal in place, Miller has struck out 25 batters over his last three starts covering 23 innings. He has pitched at least seven full innings in three straight games and brings an oppBA of .171 into this start. Six weeks is a small sample size when compared to Miller's very average results over the past two years. The end result is a very undervalued Shelby Miller because the market isn't buying his improvements just yet. We look under the hood and say keep buying this stock because Miller's improvements across the board are completely legit.
Henderson Alvarez comes off the DL to make his third start of the year after some struggles in his first two starts. Some suggest that Alvarez is headed for TJS very soon. Alvarez pushed his control to elite levels in 2014, but a flat strikeout rate means he continues to rely on his defenders to record outs. That's a formula that can work, at least tothe level of his 2013-14 xERA's but his 5% swing and miss rate strongly suggests that he'll continue to walk that tightrope. In 12 innings, Alvarez has struck out five batters. That's not far off his career K's/9 mark. Last year, Alvarez allowed 198 hits in 187 innings. This year, he's allowed 13 hits in 12 innings. Henderson is one of those pitchers that puts the ball in play and hopes for the best. He's either going to get lucky when balls are hit right at people or he's not. Alvarez's elite groundball rate and elite control would be a welcomed edition on any team in the majors. He eatsinnings and he'll keep his team in the game almost every time. But he's not elite, not even close because he does not miss bats. Thatmakes him a far better option as a pooch than as the chalk,especially against a starter that is much better than he is.
HOUSTON-1½ +142 over Toronto
Mark Buehrle is the perfect pitcher to attack when facing a team like the Astros. Houston owns the worst team batting average in the league and they strike out more than any other team as well but none of that figures to come into play here. You see, Mark Buehrle would have trouble striking out Tommy Lasorda. In 39 innings this year, Buehrle has struck out a measly 18 batters. His swing and miss rate is a puny5% and his fastball tops off at 82.9 MPH. Buehrle's 28% line-drive rate is one of the worst rates in the game. He comes into this start with a 5.54 overall ERA and a 6.33 ERA over his last five starts.This guy is batting practice out there and if he does well it's only because of luck and a high strand percentage. Buehrle's WHIP of 1.69(1.78 in his last five starts) tells the story of a pitcher that is constantly in jam after jam after jam. That does not bode well at this park against this home-run hitting team. Furthermore, the Blue Jays have dropped four in a row and six of their past seven. The Jays have been tagged for 20 runs in the first three games of this series and 26 runs over their four-game game losing streak. This is a beat up bullpen that figures to be called upon early once again.
Collin McHugh climbed from the scrap heap in 2014 to become a front-line MLB starter by season's end. Which begs the next logical question: is McHugh a one-year-wonder, or can he repeat? His skills say he can repeat or come damn close to doing so. McHugh has outstanding control(9 BB in 44 innings) to go along with a nice K rate of 7.4 K's/9. We may even see an uptick in his strikeouts because his first-pitch strike rate and swing and miss rates of 12%/63% are both elite. McHugh's groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 50%/19%/31% has also remained steady and consistent since the beginning of last season.Collin McHugh hasn't experienced much regression from 2014 after seven starts. He's unlikely to sustain the impact he made in 2014,but there's no reason to sell him just yet. Besides, this one is all about fading Mark Buehrle, who is more likely to allow 10 hits and seven runs in five innings than he is of anything else.
SanFrancisco +104 over CINCINNATI
Chris Heston has found a home in the San Fran rotation, at least for now.Over his first seven starts he has a 2.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and his base skills have been very solid: 7.6 K's/9, 1.2 BB/9, 54% groundball rate. Heston just keeps getting better with each passing start. His confidence is high too, knowing that he can get outs at this level.This Reds' lineup is not the least bit intimidating so while this park is unforgiving, Heston's skills should play out pretty good and much better than the imposter he'll be facing.
The Giants are loving this park. In a tough match-up on Thursday againstJohnny Cueto, the Giants scored three runs and lost the opener 4-3.However, they responded on Friday and Saturday by scoring 10 and 11runs respectively and winning easily in the process. We like theirchances of keeping it going today againstAnthonyDeSclafani. Things did not go smoothly for DeSclafani in 2014 when heposted a 6.27 ERA in 33 innings for the Marlins. Jose Fernandez'sinjury helped him beat more highly-touted prospects to the bigs andhe's been able to stick around by sporting a shiny 2.79 ERA throughhis first seven starts. However, we’re not buying it for a second.DeSclafani's issues are beginning to pile up so a major regression isforthcoming. DeSclafani has a weak groundball/line-drive/fly-ballprofile of 39%/22%/39% over his past five starts. In his last starthis GB/LD/FB split was 32%/37%/37%. DeSclafani’s 18/32 BB/K splitover 42 innings is troublesome also. The K’s are fine but the walksare not. The wide gap between DeSclafani’s ERA (2.50) and xERA(4.70) shows how much he has benefited from a lucky 24% hit rate andunsustainable 81% strand rate. Overall,DeSclafani’s skill set isnot even average. Another major weakness is that he has not yetaddressed his trouble against left-handed batters (.839 opponent OPSand 6 HR in 134 plate appearances in the majors; .809 opponent OPSand 2 HR in 113 plate appearances at Triple-A New Orleans). Pitchingat Great American Ballpark (+52% LHB HR; +33% RHB HR) can in no waybe beneficial either. What we see are major bumps in the road aheadfor DeSclafani and a likely demotion back to the minors at some pointbecause he simply has too many unresolved issues. This is not a 2.79ERA guy so pay a lot more attention to his xERA of 4.70 and use thatas your guide and sell immediately.
