Is 2015 the Toughest Season to Predict?

BigdaddyQH · May 17, 2015

I don't know about you guys,but to me, 2015 is the toughest season to predict in many a year. Trying to pick Conference Champions is as hard for me, as last year was easy. Here is what I have so far.

Big 10: Starting here because this is the one conference that I am confident about. Ohio State should easily win this conference. Michigan State is the only team I see challenging OSU, and that game is in Columbus.

ACC: Now starts the hard part. In the ACC, Florida State and Clemson seem to be favored, but do not sell Georgia Tech short. We know that Florida State was not as good as their record showed last season, and they lose a lot of their offense and some solid defensive starters as well. Clemson returns QB Watson, but loses most of their starting defense. They also play a brutal schedule. Georgia Tech is a very good sleeper play if HC Johnson can get the needed defensive play from 8 returning starters. Their schedule is not easy either.

Big 12: It appears that Baylor and TCU will decide the conference again, but watch out for Oklahoma State. They play TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma at home in November. Again, the lack of a competitive non-con schedule and the lack of a CC game may cost the eventual winner of the Big 12 Conference a playoff spot. Last year the top two got snubbed fr Ohio State, who went on to win it all. The committee will not be in a big hurry to change things this season.

Pac 12: Oregon will win the North, but how many games will they lose. A game at Michigan State certainly does not help, and back to back games at Stanford and home to USC are not easy either. The CC game will be brutal no matter who they play. The reason is simple. The Pac 12 South may be the toughest division in College Football. The only team not in the running is Colorado.

SEC: The usual suspects abound, but show no sign of being the obvious favorite. The West, much like the Pac 12 South, has many challengers. The East has finally shown signs of waking up. The crossover games may decide the divisional races in each division. Alabama, Auburn and Georgia all play each other this season.

Bottom Line: Other than the Big 10, it is not a stretch predicting that one or more conference champions will have two losses. This year's competition is the bet that I have seen in a long time. Your comments are welcome.

cloverleaf · May 17, 2015

BD, none are easy when Vegas throws in the point spread.

I agree there should be some good battles within the top-5 conferences.

"Oregon will win the North", think I might rephrase that to "Oregon will be a contender to win the North."

Conan · May 17, 2015

I see where you are going with Oregon in the North Clover, however their only real competition will be Stanford. I still see the Cardinal in rebuilding mode, not so much because their offense will continue to sputter, I don't see that happening at all. If you have any doubts about that, all one needs to do is look at how they closed out 2014. Hogan seemed to find his mojo and his offense took over in games in a way you are used to seeing from them. But I still see a weakness there, that would be the Cardinal defense. I think they lost something like 8 starters at the start of this season. Hogan and his interesting set of RB's and a few quality receivers that will need to blow it all out often to be safe from losing 3-4 games again.

As far as Oregon is concerned, I can't think of a single year in the last decade when their offense wasn't dominant, rather it was their defense that has had holes. A superior opponent with a very good offense (like Rich Rodriguez has) is a prime candidate to overturn Oregon's apple cart. We've seen all this before. It should be said that if they lose TOO much at QB with Mariota leaving the team, their rushing game will carry them nicely. When has it not? As big Daddy's favorite Oregon home boy I can tell you that my greatest wish is to see Don Pellum, Helfrich's DC stand on Aliotti's shoulders and take Oregon's defense to the next level... and by that I mean specifically some new and better blood on the Duck DL. I'm not sure that USC is ready and able to take the conference championship away from Oregon. USC's biggest weakness is not on the field, but in the head office in their football program. I'm just not not too sure that UCLA, Utah or the Zonas have enough going for them top keep up with Oregon' scoring machine, (other than perhaps the Wildcats) especially if Pellum's defense makes itself known. Both of the Zonas, Utah and USC are set at QB with some national credentials. Pellum has his work cut out for himself.

GoSooners · May 17, 2015

cloverleaf said:
BD, none are easy when Vegas throws in the point spread.

I agree there should be some good battles within the top-5 conferences.

"Oregon will win the North", think I might rephrase that to "Oregon will be a contender to win the North."

Oregon will be pretty damn good this year. I think they could be even more dangerous because they'll have an even stronger run based attack, which is always the first thing I look for. With the losses on defense I think UO could have a little more trouble against the pass. But just looking at the players they have back, and the ones they get back from injury/suspension, their front 7 should be pretty good. Especially their DL which will have Buckner returning plus a 5 star player Kaumutule. But if they have a more run based attack like I'm thinking they will, we could actually see more sustained drives out of the Ducks. After losing a Heisman winner at QB I think it would be in their best interest to go this route.

GoSooners · May 17, 2015

GoSooners said:
Oregon will be pretty damn good this year. I think they could be even more dangerous because they'll have an even stronger run based attack, which is always the first thing I look for. With the losses on defense I think UO could have a little more trouble against the pass. But just looking at the players they have back, and the ones they get back from injury/suspension, their front 7 should be pretty good. Especially their DL which will have Buckner returning plus a 5 star player Kaumutule. But if they have a more run based attack like I'm thinking they will, we could actually see more sustained drives out of the Ducks. After losing a Heisman winner at QB I think it would be in their best interest to go this route.

Something else I like about Oregon this year is they'll be working off #9 and #16 ranked classes 2011/2012. They were #26 and #22 in 2013/2014. Based on their 5 year recruiting cycle, this is their most talented team.

cloverleaf · May 17, 2015

Two excellent post by two men that know a hell of a lot more than I do about the Pac-conference. I seldom ever bet Pac teams. Still, along with a couple of friends who are helping me research teams during the off season....we are not ready to anoint Oregon the winner of anything. The Ducks had the best QB in the country last year in our opinion....he's gone and will be missed.

Don't tell me about the QB transfer...hell, I'm not sure he can beat out the next guy in line...who had a damn good spring.

Now the question is not whether Oregon will be good because they will...question is how good?

Conan · May 17, 2015

cloverleaf said:
Two excellent post by two men that know a hell of a lot more than I do about the Pac-conference. I seldom ever bet Pac teams. Still, along with a couple of friends who are helping me research teams during the off season....we are not ready to anoint Oregon the winner of anything. The Ducks had the best QB in the country last year in our opinion....he's gone and will be missed.

Don't tell me about the QB transfer...hell, I'm not sure he can beat out the next guy in line...who had a damn good spring.

Now the question is not whether Oregon will be good because they will...question is how good?

I think people are too distracted by Mariota leaving. It's not quite the case where the next QB era will be SO much less than what they are losing. These guys know how to do a check down and hit their targets. Both of them. That has always seemed to work out in the past. Even Jeremiah Masoli got them within a game of making the big time. Remember him? I can... BARELY.

There is one ingredient left for the Ducks to work up the same way they move the ball....

cloverleaf · May 17, 2015

Lordy Conan....DEFENSE?....hope the Pac Conference Gods will show you some mercy. Especially the Duck Gods!

DEFENSE?????????

Conan · May 17, 2015

cloverleaf said:
Lordy Conan....DEFENSE?....hope the Pac Conference Gods will show you some mercy. Especially the Duck Gods!

DEFENSE?????????

I do see your point Clover.
With 46 points between you and your opponent, who cares?

Least of all Pellum himself?

cloverleaf · May 17, 2015

Here's the rub my friend.

If a Pac team is good enough to make the big show...they better have some defense!

I've made a lot of spending money betting defense in big games...win more than I lose.

CoachCB · May 18, 2015

With no obvious dominant SEC team, it is hard. If Bama didn't have questions at QB, it would be very safe to predict them....but until they put a reliable QB on the field it will be tough to pick an SEC team.

It's hard to go against Ohio State. I still believe they should not have been in the playoffs last year, as the B12 got screwed. Meyer built Ohio State to compete in 2015 and I firmly believed he'd win it all in 2015, but he did it a year early. I still think this years OSU team is the team to beat (I know that's easy to say w/ them atop every poll, but it is what it is). Meyer is legit and I can't stand the guy!

BigdaddyQH · May 18, 2015

CoachCB said:
With no obvious dominant SEC team, it is hard. If Bama didn't have questions at QB, it would be very safe to predict them....but until they put a reliable QB on the field it will be tough to pick an SEC team.

It's hard to go against Ohio State. I still believe they should not have been in the playoffs last year, as the B12 got screwed. Meyer built Ohio State to compete in 2015 and I firmly believed he'd win it all in 2015, but he did it a year early. I still think this years OSU team is the team to beat (I know that's easy to say w/ them atop every poll, but it is what it is). Meyer is legit and I can't stand the guy!

How can you say that Ohio State did not deserve to be in the playoffs last year. They won it all. The Big 12 impressed very few. Baylor took a major dump in their Bowl Game and Baylor was the Big 12 Champ. This season we shall see what we shall see, but IMO, if the Big 12 does not have a team with less losses than four other teams from the four other conferences, they will once again be left out in the cold. This is the NCAA's way of telling them to get a CC game.

CoachCB · May 18, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
How can you say that Ohio State did not deserve to be in the playoffs last year. They won it all. The Big 12 impressed very few. Baylor took a major dump in their Bowl Game and Baylor was the Big 12 Champ. This season we shall see what we shall see, but IMO, if the Big 12 does not have a team with less losses than four other teams from the four other conferences, they will once again be left out in the cold. This is the NCAA's way of telling them to get a CC game.

How? They got BLOWN OUT by a 6-6 football team from the shittiest Power 5 conference. There. Nothing else needs to be said.

They won it all, sure. But you have to get in the dance to win it all. They didn't deserve it. The B12 teams beat themselves. I don't care about the "no conference championship game" situation.

It doesn't matter what happened AFTER the selection was made. Ohio State was eliminated when they got BLOW OUT (did I mention AT HOME) by a shitty 6-6 football team?

They shouldn't have been there. And if you don't see that you don't understand how college football works; EVERY GAME MATTERS!

RunLeeRun · May 18, 2015

I don't know how anybody could watch them dismantle Miss St and say they shouldn't have had a crack at it. It's a shame we don't know which criteria the playoff committee uses week to week. It seemed like "the eye test" was good enough for TCU one week, then they just decided it was no longer the case for them. If anybody failed the eyeball test if was FSU. It seemed like every win they had was a single score. But they, as did Ohio St, won their respective title games and had better SOS (and a better historical name) than TCU, so I guess that trumps? Another of the "factors" when there are like teams is to look at common opponents. TCU pounded Minnesota by 23. Ohio State won by 7. TCU pounded Oklahoma St by 34. Florida St won by 6. However, the they can't take point difference into consideration....yet the eyeball test OSU 59 Wisconsin 0 can't be directly disassociated from point differential. Either way, somebody would have had a raw deal. I said it before they selected the 4 teams, FSU was the team that didn't deserve to go. Undefeated is no longer the end-all be-all that it was under the old poll system, as shouldn't carry over be from the previous season.

GoSooners · May 18, 2015

RunLeeRun said:
I don't know how anybody could watch them dismantle Miss St and say they shouldn't have had a crack at it. It's a shame we don't know which criteria the playoff committee uses week to week. It seemed like "the eye test" was good enough for TCU one week, then they just decided it was no longer the case for them. If anybody failed the eyeball test if was FSU. It seemed like every win they had was a single score. But they, as did Ohio St, won their respective title games and had better SOS (and a better historical name) than TCU, so I guess that trumps? Another of the "factors" when there are like teams is to look at common opponents. TCU pounded Minnesota by 23. Ohio State won by 7. TCU pounded Oklahoma St by 34. Florida St won by 6. However, the they can't take point difference into consideration....yet the eyeball test OSU 59 Wisconsin 0 can't be directly disassociated from point differential. Either way, somebody would have had a raw deal. I said it before they selected the 4 teams, FSU was the team that didn't deserve to go. Undefeated is no longer the end-all be-all that it was under the old poll system, as shouldn't carry over be from the previous season.

I think the playoffs and determining who gets in and who gets left out of the Final Four is probably the single most interesting subject in college football today. I'm getting ready to write an article about it for my website that involves this and how to 'try' to handicap NC futures with this new format. I think we all know that there is much more going on here than just who qualifies and who doesn't. There are obviously some politics involved in this process just like there was when we had the BCS..

Just look back at the BCS process of who made it in and we see a pattern. Have you ever noticed the SEC's paltry showing in the first half of the BCS era? Silve gave an interview last year where he said after being left out of the title game, they decided to skew the college football championship in the SEC's favor. He said they coordinated that effort to make the MNC game by making the selection process more 'human' (diminished the unbiased computer process). It obviously worked since they made something like 7 or 8 straight showings after that.

I'm not taking anything away from the SEC, but there is no way they would have had that run if it wasn't for (1) a biased southeastern media and promotional campaign to get the SEC in the title game, and (2) the fact that they only had to play a single game against a usually inferior opponent, usually in their own backyard, or at worst a neutral location. Now the rules are changing again. And they are less in the SEC's favor. In a 'normal' year last year, under the old system Bama probably would have won another national championship, and Ohio State and Oregon would have been left out of the picture. It would have been a Bama/FSU matchup. So now we have a new system with a new order of politics to deal with. Yes, there are certain criteria these teams will have to meet to get in the Final Four. But if they continue on this route with just the 4 team playoff, watch how this criteria changes from year to year. I guarantee you there will be a lot of lobbying done. And it will be from all sides this time.

REDEYE · May 18, 2015

CoachCB said:
With no obvious dominant SEC team, it is hard. If Bama didn't have questions at QB, it would be very safe to predict them....but until they put a reliable QB on the field it will be tough to pick an SEC team.

It's hard to go against Ohio State. I still believe they should not have been in the playoffs last year, as the B12 got screwed. Meyer built Ohio State to compete in 2015 and I firmly believed he'd win it all in 2015, but he did it a year early. I still think this years OSU team is the team to beat (I know that's easy to say w/ them atop every poll, but it is what it is). Meyer is legit and I can't stand the guy!

Ohio St proved they were the best team out there..for me what they did in the postseason more then outweighs a game in the early part of the season..think they are the team to beat too..like the -150 to make the playoffs.

CoachCB · May 18, 2015

RED EYE said:
Ohio St proved they were the best team out there..for me what they did in the postseason more then outweighs a game in the early part of the season..think they are the team to beat too..like the -150 to make the playoffs.

RE, that is NOT THE POINT!

It's easy to sit here AFTER THE FACT and say that. Real easy.

The point is, they did not deserve to get in. They got blown out, at home, by a shitty 6-6 team. That eliminated them. Period. It doesn't matter what they did AFTER they got in. In college football it DOES matter what happens in September.

As I said, the B12 teams lost to each other. They didn't get BLOWN OUT by shitty 6-6 teams from other conferences.

As pointed out by Lee, Ohio State simply got in by name recognition and passing the "eye test" (by blowing out Wisconsin). What did TCU do that Ohio State should have jumped them? Nothing. The fact Ohio State got BLOWN OUT....AT HOME...by SHITTY 6-6 football team should have eliminated them from the conversation.

It's like a 9-6 NFL Wildcard team barely making it into the playoffs and then going on a run to win the Super Bowl. The difference is, the NFL allows 12 teams in the playoff....only 4 get in for CFB. Ohio State was eliminated in September....or so we thought.

REDEYE · May 18, 2015

CoachCB said:
RE, that is NOT THE POINT!

It's easy to sit here AFTER THE FACT and say that. Real easy.

The point is, they did not deserve to get in. They got blown out, at home, by a shitty 6-6 team. That eliminated them. Period. It doesn't matter what they did AFTER they got in. In college football it DOES matter what happens in September.

As I said, the B12 teams lost to each other. They didn't get BLOWN OUT by shitty 6-6 teams from other conferences.

As pointed out by Lee, Ohio State simply got in by name recognition and passing the "eye test" (by blowing out Wisconsin). What did TCU do that Ohio State should have jumped them? Nothing. The fact Ohio State got BLOWN OUT....AT HOME...by SHITTY 6-6 football team should have eliminated them from the conversation.

It's like a 9-6 NFL Wildcard team barely making it into the playoffs and then going on a run to win the Super Bowl. The difference is, the NFL allows 12 teams in the playoff....only 4 get in for CFB. Ohio State was eliminated in September....or so we thought.

I do understand your point and it's a good one..I'm just saying that when it's all said and done they were the best team..maybe they shouldn't have got in..I was sitting on Baylor at 50/1 that morning just to get in..was hoping they would get in by some chance..agree with name recognition being a factor also

BigdaddyQH · May 19, 2015

Coach, this is how it is done. The Big 12 will NEVER get a team into the playoffs unless their Champion has less losses than the champions of the other power 5 conferences. That is written in stone. There will be no more Big 12 Bull S**t and trying to back in with very weak schedules and no CC game. Now once the Big 12 plays a CC game, that restriction comes off, but until then, the ONLY way for the Big 12 to get a representative into the playoffs is to have that team lose less games than anyone else in the other Power 5 Conferences. Let's face it. The Big 12 is certainly nowhere as strong as the Pac 12 and SEC, and has now fallen behind the Big 10. You keep talking about TCU, but TCU was NOT the Big 12 Champion last year. Baylor was, and Baylor lost their Bowl Game. Ohio State is the deserving Champion. They defeated two teams who were much better than anything the Big 12 had to offer. I told everyone last year that this is the way things will work, and after the success of the playoffs last year, there is no way that this will change this season. Now if the Big 12 Champ has one loss and say the ACC Champ has two losses, then the Big 12 Champ gets in, but that is the ONLY way.

RunLeeRun · May 19, 2015

If those names are Texas or Oklahoma, instead of a Baylor or a TCU, it doesn't have to be a better record. Like record + name recognition can trumph. If it's a lesser name, then yes the record may have to be better.

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