| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +7.34 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 42 | 0.00 | +6.04 |
| Season to Date | 57 | 63 | 0.00 | +10.49 |
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Listed Pitchers must go
2 unit play.
Arizona+115 over MIAMI
Alot of bettors are likely going to apply the “first game with a newmanager” angle here but there isn't a manager on the planet that can make Dan Haren any better. Haren's exquisite control remains intact (8 BB in 41 innings) but it's all downhill from there. Haren's swinging strike rate (6%) is wavering badly. His combo of fly-balls and hr/f demonstrate that he pays dearly for his mistakes. Haren's declining velocity and advancing age say things only get tougher from here. Dan Haren has been taken yard eight times already in 41.1 innings. His fastball tops off at 85.9 MPH and he has an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 31%/48%. Haren's cutter is his most frequently used pitch, and batters have had a great deal of success against it the past few seasons. In 2014, he got just a 9% swinging strike rate on the pitch. In the previous six years, it had been at 14 percent or above. This year, it's even lower at 7%. Haren toyed with the idea of retiring once he was traded to the East Coast, but the Marlins gave him 11 million reasons not to. His recent xERA history, along with the decline in both his velocity and swinging strike rate, show that he carries plenty of risk. Haren's surface stats (4-2 – 3.70 ERA) looks somewhat appealing but a look under the hood shows that he's one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game.
Rubby De La Rosa is 26-years-old. He went 4-8 with a 4.43 in 102 innings for the Red Sox last year. He wowed in his debut but petered out as the season wore on, which was not surprising given his workload increase after returning from 2011 Tommy John surgery. De La Rosa'sraw tools (velocity, groundball tilt) are there. His 4.50 ERA to date is the direct result of four starts at that bandbox in Colorado. His xERA of 3.49 is identical to Zach Greinke's xERA. De La Rosa has a BB/K split of 12/42 in 44 innings. He has an elite 12% swing and miss rate to go along with 95 MPH heat. De La Rosa has learned how to translate his excellent raw stuff into swings-and-misses for the first time in his career. The long ball has been an issue, as he has allowed seven HR in seven starts. Pitching at Marlins Park should favour him with the ballparkdepressing the long ball (-38% LHB HR, -22% RHB HR). Rubby De La Rosais a hidden jewel that offers up a ton more value as a dog than DanHaren does as the chalk. Invest.
SCOUTING REPORT:
Lance McCullers (RHP – HOU)
The Astros need a starter today (Monday, May 18), and they have called up this 21-year-old to perform in that role. McCullers is having the best season of his career thus far after an inconsistent,walk-riddled campaign in 2014. He’s always had premium arm strengthand two plus pitches in his 91-97 mph fastball and curveball. Bothmiss bats regularly and can be used in any count. His fastball exhibits explosive late life down in the zone while his curveball shows great shape and velocity. McCullers has been very difficult tohit in 2015 because of his fastball/curveball combination, and he’s shown drastic improvement in his walk rate. There still are concerns, however, as he throws across his body and often has no idea where his pitches are going to end up, although he repeats his mechanics well. McCullers has strikeout capabilities but only when he knows where it's going. Regardless, when he’s on his game, he can dominate asmuch as any pitcher in the minors. When he’s not throwing strikes,he’s rather ordinary. Thing is, this is a Double-A pitcher making his first career start. He figures to be amped up and the result could be walk after walk so he cannot be recommended. McCullers could either gravitate towards the top of the rotation or be moved to a late-innings reliever where his two plus pitches would give him a chance to thrive. He has a career 3.79 ERA, 4.5 BB/9 and10.7 K's/9. He's worth watching but he's a pass today spotting a tag.
2015STATS: Corpus Christi (AA) – 6 g, 4 gs, 3-1, 0.62 ERA, 29 IP, 3.4 BB/9,13.3K's/9,1 HR, .146 oppBA
