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Minnesota +137 over PITTSBURGH
Mike Pelfrey was whacked in his last start in Detroit, where he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning after surrendering 10 hits and four earned runs. The Twins were pounded 13-1 but this isn’t the Tigers. Pelfrey now faces a Pirates team that has dropped five of six and 11 of their past 17 games. Pelfrey is 3-1 with a nifty 3.23 ERA in his first seven starts. He’s relying more on a split-fingered fastball (16% of pitches) and a sinker (47%) than in the past. Pelfrey does have some issues, most notably a low strikeout total of just 17 in 39 innings but there are enough positives to back him. Pelfrey’s groundball rate of 56% is among the best in the business. His line drive rate of 18% is also elite. What we’re seeing is an increase in his velocity as well, as he’s averaging 92.4 on the radar gun, up from 90.2 a year ago. We’re not suggesting for a second that this is a re-born Mike Pelfrey that has suddenly turned a mediocre career into something special. What we are suggesting is that he and the Twins are a very decent option taking back a tag because the Twins are winning consistently, they’re hitting well and they’ve won six of Pelfrey’s eight starts.

By contrast, the Pirates have lost three of Jeff Locke’s last four starts by scores of 6-2, 7-1 and 11-10. Both of Locke’s wins this year came against Milwaukee on April 10 and eight days later on April 18. On April 18th, the Brewers were 2-10. In 21 starts last year, Locke went 7-6 for the Pirates with a 3.91 ERA over 131 innings. A March oblique injury pinged him early and mediocrity afterwards led to an up-and-down season. His dominant start % improved as his groundball % solidified but Locke’s flaky control and sub-par strikeout rate give little hope of any improvements. This year, Locke’s 56% first-pitch strike rate is low and his WHIP of 1.77 over his last five starts (1.45 overall) is hugely troublesome. Locke is either in a jam or wiggling out of one in several innings of every start. He’s simply not good enough to be priced in this range against a Twinkies team that is crushing southpaws right now. In fact, Minnesota is 11-5 overall against lefties with a .290 batting average. That’s after facing David Price (twice), Chris Sale (twice), Scott Kazmir, James Paxton and Francisco Liriano last night. Locke isn’t close to being in the same class as those others. Nice overlay here.
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SCOUTING REPORTS:

Williams Perez (RHP - ATL)

On May 7th, the Braves decided to shuffle their bullpen a bit, optioning Michael Kohn to AAA-Gwinnett and calling up 23-year-old Williams Perez for his major league debut. Perez will now make his first MLB start after throwing two innings of relief. Perez was signed as an international free agent prior to the 2009 season and has steadily climbed through the Braves organization. He has worked almost exclusively as a starter over his six-year career so he is muc more comfortable in this role. Perez does not overpower hitters, but he works in the strike zone and creates lots of groundball outs. Perez throws a low 90s mph fastball and an above-average curveball and change-up. The curve is his swing-and-miss pitch while the change-up serves as an effective neutralizer against lefties. His career propelled forward when he gained velocity on his fastball during the 2013 season while maintaining his plus command. He has the stuff and makeup to stick around so we’ll monitor him and perhaps get behind him at a later date. Over 504 career innings, Perez owns a 3.32 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP.
2015 STATS: Gwinnett (AAA) – 27 IP, 1.33 ERA, 3 BB’s/9, 7 K’s/9, 1 HR, .272 oppBA.

Phil Klein (RHP – TEX)
Phil Klein is a big guy (6-7, 260 pounds) who until last year wasn’t thought of much beyond what his draft position in 2011 (30th round) would suggest. All that changed with a breakout season, as he simply dominated across two levels before earning a promotion to the bigs. Klein works with a 92-95 fastball that looks 2-3 MPH faster and is difficult to pick up due to his towering physique. The ball explodes on hitters from a steep angle and he also works with a solid-average slider at 82-84 and mixes in a cutter from time to time. Klein is effective against both right and left-handed bats, he keeps the ball in the park (7 HR in 201.2 minor-league innings), and has the potential to eventually pitch in high-leverage situations if he can refine his control. Due to injuries, he’ll start today, but will likely slide back to middle relief once Tanner Scheppers and Shawn Tolleson return, though he has the ability to run away with the role. This dude can pitch and it’s not his first taste at this level.
Klein’s minor league career line: 121 g, 16-3, 1.87 ERA, 201.2 IP, 4.7 BB’s/9, 11.3K’s/9, 7 HR, .188 oppBA, 1.18 WHIP.

STATS: 2014 Texas (AL) — 17 g, 1-2, 2.84 ERA, 19.0 IP, 4.7 BB’s/9, 10.9 K’s/9, 3 HR, .164 oppBA, 1.10 WHIP
2014 Round Rock (AAA) — 9 g, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 18.1 IP, 0 HR, BB’s/9, 13.7 K’s/9, 0 HR, .119 oppBA, 0.70 WHIP
2014 Frisco (AA) — 24 g, 3-0, 0.81 ERA, 33.1 IP, 3.8 BB’s/9, 11.3 K’s/9, 0 HR, .139 oppBA, 0.87 WHIP
 
Joined
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Weaver goes 7 innings allowing only 4 hits (3 in 1 inning) and gets the win. Solid outing from the master of deception! That's 3 great starts in the row now for him. Maybe he regresses next time out?
 
Joined
Mar 2, 2007
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No RP. I don't like the Jays against experienced, off-speed pitchers.

I saw those 3 hits the Jays got to get the 3 runs, they were crushed! Weaver was getting killed, and these were no name players in Collabello, Carrera and Valencia. Back to back to back balls crushed, 85 mph, 69 mph and 87 mph if I recall correctly. I thought the Jays would feast on him but I guess you were right, off speed junk from him fools them? Only 4 total hits from the Jays.
 

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