| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.80 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 42 | 0.00 | +3.32 |
| Season to Date | 59 | 66 | 0.00 | +9.59 |
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Listed pitchers must go
Both plays are for 2 units
Arizona +130 over MIAMI (SIA)
12:10 PM EST. New Marlins Manager Dan Hennings is already pulling his hair out. First, the hiring of Jennings is rather shocking considering he has no coaching/managing experience whatsoever. On Tuesday, Jennings declined to bring in a righty to face A.J. Pollock, who then proceeded to hit the go-ahead homer off of Jennings’ lefty. The new manager is now 0-3 and we’re not even sure he has the respect of the players. Regardless, the Marlins are swinging at everything and hitting nothing. They’ve scored five runs in three games against the D-Backs. Overall, the Fish has scored three runs or fewer in nine of their past 10 games. They are hitting a puny .214 over their last 10, which is last in the majors. Now they’ll face a pitcher they’ve never seen in Archie Bradley. After five starts, the league is hitting .182 off of Bradley. Coming into the year, Bradley was the D-Backs top pitching prospect and one of the highest rated prospects in the game. He has plus-plus velocity and a wicked curve. In five starts, Bradley’s line drive rate of 8% is the lowest in the majors and that’s after pitching three of his five games at that line-drive haven called Chase Field. Bradley has filthy stiff but the risk in his inability to consistently throw strikes. That would concern us a lot more if he wasn’t facing a team that is pressing at the dish. Right now the Marlins are going up to bat and they’re seeing BB gun pellets.
By contrast, there are nothing but concerns regarding Mat Latos. The decrease in his K-rate is very troubling considering the significant drop in swinging strikes from 11% two years ago to a run-of-the-mill 8% this season. Perhaps even more concerning is that his velocity fell 2½ MPH to 90.5 mph. Throw in some additional free passes, which is never a good thing, especially when combined with a shrinking swing and miss rate. After boasting a groundball % of 43-46% over the previous four seasons, Latos allowed far more fly-balls in 2014 and now six weeks into the 2015 season. Latos’ groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 40%/27%/37% is now on a three-year decline. Lastos underwent offseason stem cell surgery on his right elbow hoping to regrow tissue and cartilage. According to reports, he is now healthy, but his velocity remains lower than ever. While that’s certainly subject to change given we’re just nearing the end of May, it’s not exactly an encouraging sign and neither are his numbers so far. Mat Latos comes into this start with a disturbing 1.58 WHIP, a poor 5.54 ERA, 14 walks and an oppBA of .300 over 37 innings. This isn’t the same guy he used to be and now he’s pitching for a team in big trouble. Serious overlay here.
St. Louis +105 over N.Y. METS (SIA)
1:10 PM EST. Jacob deGrom went 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA in 140 innings for the Mets last season. He was a major surprise, but it came with strong skills support, particularly in his torrid 2nd half. deGrom didn't show such lofty strikeout numbers in the minors but his swinging strike rate of 11% says it’s legit. He even closed the year with 12 straight dominating starts. This year, deGrom’s skills are pretty much the same. He has a BB/K split of 13/43 in 48 innings and a 10/26 split over his last 28 frames over five starts. However, his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 41%/27%/33% over his last five starts is trending in the wrong direction. In his second time around, hitters have studied him more and his skills are starting to show some regression. Furthermore, current Cardinals have hit .400 off him in a small sample size (12 hits in 30 AB’s) but it’s still there.
Jamie Garcia comes off the DL to make his first start of the season and because of that, he’s undervalued. Last season, Garcia was limited to 7 games started, as shoulder issues led to a late start and an early end to the season. It's a small sample, but his skills remained intact or better, with strikeouts, swinging strikes and fastball velocity all at career highs. Garcia’s skills history shows what he's capable of. Garcia was able to reach 90 pitches in his May 15 rehab start at AA-Springfield and hold AA-Northwest Arkansas to two earned runs in six innings with six K’s and no walks. Perhaps more importantly is that the Cardinals have scored 19 times in the first two games of this series while the depleted Mets have scored two runs. That’s 19-2 in favor of the visitor. When a team is going that well against a team that is not, often the starting pitchers have far less influence on the outcome. Hot vs cold, plus a tag gets the call.
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Evening games will be posted in a different thread later on.
