3 Sunday w/analysis

Listed pitchers must go
All plays are 2 units, with exception of Marlins, which is to WIN 2 units

POSTED at 10:45 AM EST.

Chicago -1½ +133 over ARIZONA (Pinny)
There’s an old cliché that says, “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time”. These old clichés have been around for a long time because they’re true and it applies to Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson is coming off a six inning, four-hit, two run, semi-gem in Miami but we’re not buying it for a second, as Marlins Park is a huge pitcher’s park and the Marlins were a sinking ship when Hellickson faced them. Now Hellickson will get back to who he really is when he faces these Cubs at Chase Field. Hellickson is 0-2 at home this season with a 7.45 ERA. In 19 home frames, he has been tagged for 28 hits and has walked 10 batters. Hellickson has a home WHIP of 1.96 to go along with an oppBA of .329. Hellickson was outpitching his skills for years before his arthroscopic elbow surgery last season. Hellickson’s declining velocity, disaster starts history and the inability to induce groundballs sets a very low ceiling for this stiff that we are going to continue to attack.

Jason Hammel has been logging nothing but quality innings since April 22 and now he’ll face an Arizona nine he has fared well against in the past (.563 OPS/.229 BAA). In 25 road innings this season, Hammel has an elite BB/K split of 3/27. This Arizona offense throws a ton of righty at-bats against RHPs, which is a boon for Hammel who thus far has held RHBs to a .541 OPS and BA against of .200 in 2015. Every skill of Hammel’s is trending in the right direction. His velocity is higher than it’s ever been. He has an overall BB/K split of 6/49 in 53 innings, a 0.92 ERA, a first pitch strike rate of 64% and a swinging strike rate of 12%. One of the real keys here is that Hammel was reunited with Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio. Prior to his trade to Oakland, Hammel posted a 2.98 ERA and the best strikeout and walk rates of his career on the North Side. Upon going to the Athletics, things changed. Hammel lost those gains, and suddenly became very homer prone again. He wisely re-upped with the Cubs so he could work with Bosio again to recreate the magic. Hammel is once again embracing his wicked slider by throwing it over 33% of the time this year, while enticing the opposition to swing 29% of the time the slider is outside of the strike zone and 63% of the time when it’s in the strike zone. They rarely hit it. Hammel has never looked better and his metrics support that. This is pocket aces versus 10/deuce off-suit. We’ll take our chances.

Cincinnati +170 over CLEVELAND (SIA)
We like Cleveland’s overall team and the direction it is headed and we also like the potential and arm of Trevor Bauer (doesn’t everybody?). However, we’re not quite convinced that Bauer is ready to be priced in this range. Bauer’s stock is high. He’s getting a lot of hype because of the 51 K’s he has in 49 innings. Bauer is also coming off back-to-back gems in which he had almost identical lines of 7.1 IP, 4 hits and 1 earned run allowed in those back-to-back-starts against the Cardinals and White Sox. Dude is garnering attention and rightfully so but it’s not as rosy as it seems. At home, Bauer has a 5.34 ERA compared to an ERA of 0.44 on the road. The reason for the big discrepancy can be found in Bauer’s groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/42%, which does not play we’ll at Progressive Field. There are more concerns as well. Bauer’s weak 52% first pitch strike rate over his last six starts is a huge warning sign that says more walks are forthcoming. He’s already walked 10 batters over his last 26 innings. While his upside warrants an investment, his short-term outlook isn't especially glowing. He still isn't able to throw strikes at a consistent clip (58% strike% vs. MLB average of 64%). There's a blowup or two coming, so don’t buy into the hype just yet.

Raisel Iglesias has appeared in four games this year with his first two appearances coming as a starter and the last two coming out of the pen. Iglesias has been a starter his entire career so we put absolutely zero weight on his two rough appearances out of the pen and will focus entirely on his two outings as a starter. In his MLB debut on April 12, Iglesias went five full against the Cardinals and allowed five hits and three runs. A month later on May 13, Iglesias went 8 full against the Braves and allowed just two hits and one run. Looking under the hood, there are plenty of good signs for Iglesias. His first pitch strike rate of 64% and 11% swing and miss rate says his 11 K’s in 16 frames is legit and will likely see an uptick. His 17% line-drive rate says batters are not making hard contact against him. Iglesias has not been taken yard and while it’s only 16 innings, 15 of those innings occurred at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. This kid has the arsenal to be successful and is definitely worth a bet at this price. For more info on Iglesias, see our MLB call-ups section dated May 13.

MIAMI -101 over Baltimore (Pinny)
What happens when a team snaps an ugly streak and lifts a huge weight off their shoulders? They usually go on a run, especially a team with as much talent as the Marlins have. Miami is 17-27 and have fewer wins than the Phillies, which is pretty sweet because it allows us to buy the Marlins at a cheap price. That win last night for the Marlins was big. It was a walk off victory in the 13th inning. Miami dodged several bullets in the first five innings but their bullpen absolutely dominated the Orioles after that. The Fish were a single away from winning it late on several occasions and finally came though on a Martin Prado single with two on and two out in the 13th. Miami’s leadoff hitter, Dee Gordon leads the majors with a .379 BA. Giancarlo Stanton is a true power hitter that continues to produce with 40 RBI’s. They also have a couple of .300 hitters and a couple of .278 hitters and that doesn’t even include Christian Yelich, who is batting just .181. Yelich is too good to be batting that low so watch for ascension. The point is that these Fish are not a bad team; they’re an undervalued team that can be bet with more confidence here after last night’s win.

We like the Marlins chances getting to Miguel Gonzalez more than we like Baltimore’s chances of getting to Tom Koehler. Miguel Gonzalez is a right-handed version of Wei-Yin Chen. That’s not a good thing, as they’re both fly-ball pitchers who struggle with the home run, and they are roughly a top 60-to-70 pitcher when throwing 170+ innings in a season. Chen may have a higher strikeout rate, but their career swinging-strike rates are almost identical: 8.6% for Chen and 8.3% for Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a non-interesting pitcher whose gap between ERA/xERA shows just how fortunate he is (thank you, strand rate) most of the time. As a fly ball pitcher lacking swing-and-miss stuff, he needs luck on his side and that can be a good gamble when taking back a price. When spotting one, it is not.

Tom Koehler sparkles at home. In four home starts thus far, Koehler has yet to allow more than two runs in any of them. In four home starts over 28 innings, Koehler has allowed just 22 hits and five earned runs. That’s an oppBA of .220 to go along with an ERA of 1.61. Four starts is a small sample size but Koehler produced similar results in 2014 in 15 starts at home. Last year at Marlins Park, Koehler allowed just 79 hits in 96 frames for an oppBA of .226 to go along with an ERA of 3.00. Furthermore, current Orioles have just two hits against him in 16 AB’s for a BA of .125. Wrong side favored.

Good luck!