How to bet Sunday night's Rangers-Yankees matchup
MLB Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
<video1 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">What a difference three weeks can make.</video1>The last time the New York Yankees were on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball -- just 21 days ago -- they were completing a sweep of the Boston Red Sox and taking a three-game lead in the American League East.
The Bronx Bombers host the Texas Rangers on Sunday night in the nationally televised prime-time showcase, but they've lost five straight games (including the first two games of this series with a 10-9 setback Friday night and an embarrassing 15-4 rout Saturday afternoon) and nine of their past 10 games. They have fallen a game and a half behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the division lead, and if the season were to end today, they wouldn't even be a wild-card team.
The Rangers, who had the AL's worst record (9-16, .360 win percentage) three weeks ago, are 11-7 since then and on a four-game winning streak. Despite still being below .500 at 20-23, they're just 4.5 games out of the wild-card race. They're looking to sweep the Yankees today.
Speaking of hot, our MLB Vegas experts have swept both the side and total in each of the past two Sunday Night Baseball games. This week we'll start with Joe Peta looking at the side and then Erin Rynning (filling in for Andrew Lange) and Dave Tuley agreeing on the over/under.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Westgate lines: New York minus-127/Texas plus-117
Over/under 9 (under minus-120)
PickCenter: 60 percent picked Texas
Joe Peta: The Yankees are reeling and the Rangers are surging; such short-term swings in fortune are common in baseball because, as Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver famously said, "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher." For the Yankees, it's good news that their starting pitcher Sunday night is left-handed. While he's nobody's definition of a "stopper," Chris Capuano is a southpaw, and the Rangers' lineup is stacked with left-handed hitters and has been far more adept at hitting right-handed pitching this season, yesterday's bludgeoning of CC Sabathia notwithstanding. On the other hand, the Yankees field a lineup designed to make life miserable for right-handed pitchers, especially in the Bronx, which doesn't bode well for Texas starter Yovani Gallardo and his declining strikeout rate and tendency to give up home runs.
Given those lefty-righty advantages, even following the significant loss of Jacoby Ellsbury, I still have the Yankees as the more potent lineup. That assessment may be debatable, but this one is not: The Yankees possess a vastly superior bullpen.
If two teams are perfectly even, the break-even price for the home team would be minus-118, which means oddsmakers see the Yankees facing a mediocre right-handed pitcher as just mildly better than the Rangers facing a league-average left-handed pitcher. I'm sure Sunday night's line reflects a little bit of what's happened in the past 10 games for each team, but outside of accounting for the Ellsbury injury, I'll look to take advantage of any value that provides. At minus-128 or thereabouts, the Yankees grade out as a very solid play.
ESPN Chalk pick: Yankees minus-127
Erin Rynning: The Yankees will turn to Capuano, their stopper, after serving up two days of batting-practice pitches to the Rangers and allowing 25 runs. Yes, that's a strong hint of sarcasm, as the 36-year-old left-hander has little left in the tank. His debut start for the Yankees lasted just three innings (he allowed four runs to the Royals). He generally tried to work just off the plate, a clear sign there's little trust in his 88 mph fastball and eroding stuff. Unfortunately, pitching deep into the night will be a lot to ask of the crafty veteran, which will put more heat on their already-overworked bullpen.
Meanwhile, Gallardo will climb the hill with a mediocre 4.26 ERA. His strikeout rate continues to dwindle along with his repertoire; he's fanning just 6.0 batters per nine innings this season, continuing a K/9 decline from 9.0 in 2012 to 7.17 in 2013 to 6.83 in 2014. Both teams should be able to plate their fair share of runs, and while another 19 runs on Sunday night will be a stretch, just half of that figure will get us an OVER.
ESPN Chalk pick: over 9 runs (even money)
Dave Tuley: I've been the designated over/under handicapper in this space for the Sunday Night Baseball games, and have hit my last three to improve to 4-1 on the season. My colleague Erin Rynning is kinda stealing my thunder by picking the over, but at least we agree on the right side of the total in this matchup.
The Rangers have been feasting on Yankees pitching the past two days, and it's asking a lot of Capuano to quiet their bats. Meanwhile, Gallardo could be what helps the Yankees' offense get back on track, though it's not like they've been shut down the past two games, with 13 combined runs scored. Instead of cheering for a side, we'll just cheer for offense like we did three weeks ago, when the Yankees won 8-5 to cash the over and start our current streak.
ESPN Chalk pick: over 9 runs (even money)
MLB Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
<video1 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">What a difference three weeks can make.</video1>The last time the New York Yankees were on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball -- just 21 days ago -- they were completing a sweep of the Boston Red Sox and taking a three-game lead in the American League East.
The Bronx Bombers host the Texas Rangers on Sunday night in the nationally televised prime-time showcase, but they've lost five straight games (including the first two games of this series with a 10-9 setback Friday night and an embarrassing 15-4 rout Saturday afternoon) and nine of their past 10 games. They have fallen a game and a half behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the division lead, and if the season were to end today, they wouldn't even be a wild-card team.
The Rangers, who had the AL's worst record (9-16, .360 win percentage) three weeks ago, are 11-7 since then and on a four-game winning streak. Despite still being below .500 at 20-23, they're just 4.5 games out of the wild-card race. They're looking to sweep the Yankees today.
Speaking of hot, our MLB Vegas experts have swept both the side and total in each of the past two Sunday Night Baseball games. This week we'll start with Joe Peta looking at the side and then Erin Rynning (filling in for Andrew Lange) and Dave Tuley agreeing on the over/under.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Over/under 9 (under minus-120)
PickCenter: 60 percent picked Texas
Joe Peta: The Yankees are reeling and the Rangers are surging; such short-term swings in fortune are common in baseball because, as Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver famously said, "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher." For the Yankees, it's good news that their starting pitcher Sunday night is left-handed. While he's nobody's definition of a "stopper," Chris Capuano is a southpaw, and the Rangers' lineup is stacked with left-handed hitters and has been far more adept at hitting right-handed pitching this season, yesterday's bludgeoning of CC Sabathia notwithstanding. On the other hand, the Yankees field a lineup designed to make life miserable for right-handed pitchers, especially in the Bronx, which doesn't bode well for Texas starter Yovani Gallardo and his declining strikeout rate and tendency to give up home runs.
Given those lefty-righty advantages, even following the significant loss of Jacoby Ellsbury, I still have the Yankees as the more potent lineup. That assessment may be debatable, but this one is not: The Yankees possess a vastly superior bullpen.
If two teams are perfectly even, the break-even price for the home team would be minus-118, which means oddsmakers see the Yankees facing a mediocre right-handed pitcher as just mildly better than the Rangers facing a league-average left-handed pitcher. I'm sure Sunday night's line reflects a little bit of what's happened in the past 10 games for each team, but outside of accounting for the Ellsbury injury, I'll look to take advantage of any value that provides. At minus-128 or thereabouts, the Yankees grade out as a very solid play.
ESPN Chalk pick: Yankees minus-127
Erin Rynning: The Yankees will turn to Capuano, their stopper, after serving up two days of batting-practice pitches to the Rangers and allowing 25 runs. Yes, that's a strong hint of sarcasm, as the 36-year-old left-hander has little left in the tank. His debut start for the Yankees lasted just three innings (he allowed four runs to the Royals). He generally tried to work just off the plate, a clear sign there's little trust in his 88 mph fastball and eroding stuff. Unfortunately, pitching deep into the night will be a lot to ask of the crafty veteran, which will put more heat on their already-overworked bullpen.
Meanwhile, Gallardo will climb the hill with a mediocre 4.26 ERA. His strikeout rate continues to dwindle along with his repertoire; he's fanning just 6.0 batters per nine innings this season, continuing a K/9 decline from 9.0 in 2012 to 7.17 in 2013 to 6.83 in 2014. Both teams should be able to plate their fair share of runs, and while another 19 runs on Sunday night will be a stretch, just half of that figure will get us an OVER.
ESPN Chalk pick: over 9 runs (even money)
Dave Tuley: I've been the designated over/under handicapper in this space for the Sunday Night Baseball games, and have hit my last three to improve to 4-1 on the season. My colleague Erin Rynning is kinda stealing my thunder by picking the over, but at least we agree on the right side of the total in this matchup.
The Rangers have been feasting on Yankees pitching the past two days, and it's asking a lot of Capuano to quiet their bats. Meanwhile, Gallardo could be what helps the Yankees' offense get back on track, though it's not like they've been shut down the past two games, with 13 combined runs scored. Instead of cheering for a side, we'll just cheer for offense like we did three weeks ago, when the Yankees won 8-5 to cash the over and start our current streak.
ESPN Chalk pick: over 9 runs (even money)
