4 Tuesday w/analysis

Listed pitchers must go
All plays are 2 units with exception of Cubbies, who are 2.16 units to win 2

Colorado +115 over CINCINNATI
The Reds are struggling mightily while the Rockies are started to heat up again after a strong start to the year followed by a rather lengthy funk. On the surface, Michael Lorenzen (1-1, 3.79 ERA) has better numbers than Jorge De La Rosa (1-2, 6.51 ERA) but under the surface, De La Rosa has a huge advantage. Lorenzen has appeared in just five games this year with three of those coming as a starter. This kid has potential. He was a closer in college (and a centerfielder) until the Reds stretched him out last season in the minors. He pitched well, relying mostly on his mid-90’s fastball. In 160 career minor league innings, Lorenzen posted a 3.08 ERA. However, he has not been able to carry that success to this level yet. Not even close. In 16 innings over three starts and three innings over two relief appearances, Lorenzen has a BB/K split of 10/11. He’s also been tagged for 22 hits. That’s 32 base-runners in 19 innings for a WHIP of 1.68. Sorry, but that does not add up to an ERA of 3.79. Lorenzen has been extremely fortunate with an unsustainable 90% strand rate. At Great American Ballpark, Lorenzen has made just two appearances (1 start, 1 relief) covering seven innings and has been whacked to the tune of 11 hits and six earned runs. In his last two appearances in relief covering three innings, Lorenzen did not strike out a single batter. Lorenzen’s batted ball split of 38% groundballs, 30% line-drives and 32% fly-balls is extremely shaky too. His worst number, however, is his 5.72 xERA, which is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA.

After posting a 3.49 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery in 2013, Jorge de la Rosa did not have the repeat performance he'd hoped for in 2014. Still, he went 11-7 for the Rockies last year with an ERA of 4.10. Not great but not bad when you consider the park he pitched half his games at. This year, De La Rosa has made huge strides and it’s about to show up in is surface stats. De La Rosa’s strikeout rate has rebounded to the same level of his pre-TJ days. In 28 innings he has 31 K’s and that comes with full support of his elite 13% swing and miss rate. De La Rosa is also doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 52%/24% groundball/fly-ball split. Luck, or lack thereof, has been the driving factor behind de la Rosa's 6.51 ERA. His strand rate of 58% is 32% lower than Lorenzen’s strand rate. De La Rosa’s 3.73 xERA is almost three runs lower than his actual ERA and we guarantee that barring something unforeseen, De La Rosa’s actual ERA is in for a big-time correction to the good. This is one game in which anything can happen but put De La Rosa high on your radar because his xERA has him as one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. We’ll look to take advantage of market perception here.

N.Y. METS -1½ +120 over Philadelphia
Jacob deGrom is coming off a career start where he struck out 11 and allowed only one hit in eight shutout innings. He will look to repeat that performance against the Phillies, who have the worst offense in the entire league, averaging only 3.2 runs per game. Back on April 13, deGrom threw 6.1 shutout innings against the Phillies in his only start versus them this season. Five of deGrom’s six home starts this season have resulted in dominant starts while in 16 career starts at home, he is 10-4 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. deGrom has soaring skills right across the board. His groundball rate is up to 51% over his last five starts, which is up from 44% from his first four starts. His BB/K split of 8/35 over his last 31 innings shows an uptick in strikeouts and his first pitch strike rate of 64% is also trending in the right direction. deGrom is the straight goods.

Jerome Williams has been brutal on the road this season, where all four of his starts have resulted in disasters. In those four starts, he is 0-3 with a 8.38 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in 19.1 IP. He was hit hard by the Mets back on April 15, where he took the 6-1 loss after surrendering 10 hits and five runs in five frames. Williams’ 5.57 xERA in five May starts shows just how bad his recent form has been. The Phillies have lost four of his last five starts overall with the opposition scoring 27 times over that span. One has to like the Mets chances of scoring some runs while the same cannot be said about the Phillies.

San Francisco -1½ +125 over MILWAUKEE
Madison Bumgarner keeps pushing the envelope even further as his swing and miss rate continues its steady ascent. His control has returned to elite territory, and his first pitch strike gains suggest they will stick. Four straight years of dominance and 200+ innings makes him elite. You can have Kershaw, Felix and others, as we'll gladly take Bumgarner against anyone.

The Brewers have lost Matt Garza’s last two games by scores of 14-1 and 10-1. That was in Atlanta and in New York at Citi Field, two pitchers parks. Garza has allowed eight home runs over his last 40 innings. He’s also allowed 55 hits and issued 24 walks over his 52 frames thus far. His skills so far this season have not even been rotation-worthy. Stay away from Garza and don't be surprised if it's revealed that he has been dealing with an arm issue. Now he’ll face a Giants team that is putting up some pretty sick numbers. Look at yesterday’s box score between the Brewers and Giants and pay special attention to San Fran’s hitters. On the far right of the box score it shows each individual players season to date batting average. We’ll save you the time. Nori Aoki is hitting 312, Joe Panik is hitting .293, Angel Pagan is hitting .306, Hunter Pence is hitting .342, Brandon Belt is hitting .302, Brandon Crawford is hitting .298, Matt Duffy is hitting .302 and Buster Posey is hitting .310. That’s the eight batters that Garza will face. The lowest batting average is Joe Panik’s .293 mark. Six of the eight regulars are batting over .300 and that’s after playing half their games at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. The Giants have scored 63 runs over their past six road games. The numbers say that Matt Garza isn’t going to slow them down.

CHICAGO -108 over Washington
We mentioned in mid-April that Jordan Zimmerman is a pitcher we’re likely going to be fading because his skills are showing a significant drop-off. We haven’t followed through with that fade because the matchups against him were not favorable but this one is. The Nats have won Zimmerman’s last five starts. Over that span, Zimmerman is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA. However, he’s faced the Braves twice, the Padres at Petco and the Yanks and Marlins both at Nationals Park. Jordan Zimmermann has been one of the most reliable starters in the National League over the past four seasons but his numbers are a little off so far this year. Zimmermann bumped up his strikeouts in 2014 and the gains were supported by his swinging strike rate. However, he's given it all back and then some so far this year, as he's not getting many swings and misses. Zimmerman has just 36 K’s in 54 innings with a low swing and miss rate of 6%. His fastball velocity has been very consistent over the last several years, but that has fallen off early in 2015. If he doesn't recapture that extra zip, his K-rate will fall well short of expectations. Zimmerman’s strand rate of 80% over his last five starts is the reason his ERA was so low. His xERA of 4.01 says regression is on the way. His 41%/24%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is also trending the wrong way. Zimmerman has had it quite easy recently but things get a little tougher here against this potentially explosive lineup.

Kyle Hendricks has posted a below average 4.14 ERA after eight starts but his underlying skills suggest he carries much more reason for optimism. He's one of just nine starters in the league that average over 7 K’s per nine with a groundball rate of 52% or more. Hendricks has elite control and while he has just one victory in eight starts, he also has just one loss in those eight starts, meaning he’s giving his team a chance to win every time he steps on the hill. Hendricks is a pitcher that went 7-2 for the Cubbies last year with a 2.46 ERA over 80 frames. His command and HR avoidance are both strong. Hendricks is just 25-years-old. His skills are showing growth with every passing month over his brief career. He certainly carries some value and with the Nats never having faced him before, he could be a sneaky, solid play here.
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Scouting:

Jose Urena (RHP- MIA)
Originally signed for $52,000, Jose Urena capped his 2013 season with a solid second half as a starter at high Class A Jupiter. He teamed with lefty Justin Nicolino in 2014 to give Double-A Jacksonville a pair of aces in the Suns' Southern League championship season, ranking second in the league to Nicolino in wins (13) and WHIP (1.14) while also ranking second in strikeouts (121). Urena's fastball/changeup combination is reminiscent of ex-Marlins reliever Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez). His plus fastball can sit at 94-95 mph, bumping 96, while his plus changeup is firm in the upper 80s with run and sink. Though his delivery is on the funky side, Urena repeats it and generally doesn't have issues controlling the strike zone, though below-average command makes him more hittable than his stuff suggests. Once Urena started trusting his stuff, he was able to get over a slow start in 2014 (6.66 ERA in April). His breaking ball, a hard slider, remains below-average but has its moments and it remains the biggest obstacle to him missing more bats. The Marlins will have to decide whether Urena is a starter or a reliever. He has expressed a desire to keep starting, and the Marlins for the time appear willing to accommodate him, aware that patience now could yield a bigger payoff later. The 6'3", 195-pound, right-handed Urena has two plus pitches in his 97-mph fastball and a solid changeup. He is working on developing his breaking ball and it shows potential, leaving open the possibility of a good starter in the majors. Urena shows excellent control with decent strikeout rates, and has never had excessive home run rates. He is definitely a building block for the Marlins. In four seasons in the minors the 25-year-old has a K-rate of 7.6 K’s/9 2.3 BB/9 and a hr/9 of 0.6 in 485 IP.
2014 STATS: Jacksonville (AA) – 26g, 25gs, 13-8, 3.33 ERA, 162.0 IP, 1.6 BB/9, 6.7 K’s/9, .255 oppBA

GL Today

looks like a pitching change in the Col/Cin game Rusin listed as starter for Colorado

colorado said:

looks like a pitching change in the Col/Cin game Rusin listed as starter for Colorado

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That's official colorado. That'll be a no bet.