[h=1]Mel Kiper's too-early 2016 Big Board[/h]Mel Kiper Jr., Football analyst
ESPN INSIDER
There are hundreds (thousands?) of hours of work to be done on the 2016 NFL draft class, but as is custom, I have a first look about 355 days early. The usual question I get before you read this one: How was last year's offering? Actually, not terrible, at least at the top of the board. About 52 weeks ago, I had Jameis Winston at No. 1; Marcus Mariota at No. 4; Leonard Williams at No. 5; Amari Cooper at No. 6; Brandon Scherff at No. 7; Dante Fowler Jr. at No. 8; andAndrus Peat at No. 9. A couple of top-10 guys who fell dramatically were No. 3Randy Gregory (off-field issues) and No. 2 Cedric Ogbuehi (knee injury), but both of those weren't about football.
As for this class? My initial thought is it looks more unpredictable, just because there's SO much sorting to be done with the quarterbacks. It's just a really unsettled group at this stage. But that's part of the fun.
A couple of parameters: This includes all players who could be eligible for the 2016 NFL draft based on time spent in college, which means juniors and redshirt sophomores qualify. I'm not going to provide a lot of scouting notes at this point, with most of the evaluation work on this class still to come. Note that in two weeks, I'll release early rankings across every position group, about 200 players in total.
An asterisk denotes a junior for the 2015 season; two asterisks denote a redshirt sophomore.
1. *Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
John Bosa was the No. 3-ranked defensive end in my 1987 draft guide coming out of Boston College and eventually went No. 17 overall to Miami. I'd put No. 17 overall on the low end of any projections for his son. Joey has size (6-foot-6, 275 pounds), versatility that will fit any scheme and the ability to go around blockers or right through them. He has piled up 34.5 tackles for loss in two seasons, and that's without a developmental redshirt season.
2. *Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss Rebels
He will be coming back from a fibula fracture suffered in the Peach Bowl, but Tunsil is still just a true junior with two sparkling seasons of play against top competition, all following a highly celebrated prep career. A nimble but powerful left tackle prospect, he has all the traits you look for at that spot.
3. *Jalen Ramsey, S, Florida State Seminoles
A does-it-all secondary talent who has already started 28 college games heading into his junior season, Ramsey would have been the top safety taken in the 2015 draft had he been allowed to enter. He has length, range and exceptional instincts to make plays all over the field.
4. *Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss Rebels
The top name in the incredible Ole Miss recruiting Class of 2013, Nkemdiche moved inside after starting his Rebels career on the edge. He has exceptional movement skills for a player his size (6-4, 280 pounds). And although I want to see more production from him, he has been thrown into the mix early, all while making position adjustments, and has the potential to break out in 2015 as he gets comfortable.
5. *Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida Gators
What Hargreaves lacks in size, he makes up for in instincts and effortless fluidity in moving with receivers. He's not that small, really, at 5-11 and about 195 pounds, and I think he would have been the top CB taken in the 2015 draft, if available. And this isn't just projection; he has played in 24 games and already has picked off six passes before his junior season.
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6. *A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide
A sturdy interior defender at more than 320 pounds, Robinson was an immediate impact player at Alabama, notching 5.5 sacks as a freshman. Though he can eat up blocks on the inside, he's actually in the backfield a lot, because he's got strength and impressive athletic ability for a man his size. To be an instant-impact player at Bama is usually a good sign, and Robinson should continue to get better.
7. *Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss Rebels
At 6-2 and nearly 230 pounds, Treadwell, has size, speed and tremendous hands. He was unquestionably the best WR on the team as a true freshman, even with Donte Moncrief still around. And while his season was cut short in 2014 due to an ugly injury, Treadwell should be 100 percent in the fall. If he stays that way, he's got the potential to be a first-rounder next spring.
8. *Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Born in Nigeria, Ogbah moved to Texas with his family and came up playing high school football in Houston. A raw talent who needed a redshirt season, he broke though in 2014 with 17.5 tackles for loss, often showing exceptional quickness for a player standing 6-4 and carrying a lean 275 pounds. If the growth curve continues with this kid, watch out.
9. *Jared Goff, QB, California Golden Bears
The system at Cal is going to produce numbers, but Goff's 35 touchdown passes against seven interceptions are good anywhere. The big sell here is a big-time arm. Goff can drill the ball down the field and into tight windows with ease, and he has strong movement skills and anticipation for a player with good length who seems to see the whole field. Goff's totals are going to be significant, so the question of whether the skills translate quickly will be the key question.
10. *Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
There was some talk that Stanley should have jumped into the 2015 draft, but I think he was wise to return to South Bend. The pedigree and upside thus far beats the consistency, and another year should have him in great draft position. He already has 13 starts at right tackle as a freshman, followed by 13 at left tackle as a sophomore, so he'll marry plenty of experience to prototypical length and movement skills.
11. *Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State Nittany Lions
After a freshman season that showed tons of promise and also matched the considerable hype, Hackenberg struggled mightily as a true sophomore behind a bad offensive line -- and through what could not have been an easy coaching transition, as outgoing coach Bill O'Brien has a superb reputation among quarterbacks. There is no question 2015 will be a scrutinized season for a kid with obvious NFL tools.
12. *Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State Spartans
Once a walk-on for Mark Dantonio, Conklin is now one of the most steady, complete offensive tackle prospects in college football. At 6-6 and more than 320 pounds, he moves well (he was a good former high school basketball player) and is most impressive in his consistency -- he just doesn't give up sacks. Conklin could be a great draft story, if he maintains his form in 2015.
13. *Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech Hokies
It goes beyond pedigree with Fuller. He has three older brothers who all went to VT and all landed in the NFL, and Kendall might be the best of the bunch. He has great instincts in coverage, plays physical and was an All-American in 2014, even though he wasn't at 100 percent. With 25 starts already under his belt, he'll have a ton of experience by the time 2015 is over.
14. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State Buckeyes
Moving well with a 6-8 frame, Decker was a building-block piece for an offensive line that came together in dominant fashion late in the 2014 season and into the playoffs. He has played both tackle positions and will be the top prospect on what should be one of the best lines in the country in 2015.
15. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State Spartans
It's more about tools than polish at this point, but Cook has a quick release with enough zip down the field and shows well-above-average mobility for a player his size (6-4, 220). On the downside, he often doesn't have his feet set when he throws, and the accuracy suffers. I think Cook made a good call to come back, because there's a lot to like but plenty to work on.
16. *Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Lee was truly shot out of a cannon as an NFL prospect in 2014, starting with big plays in the opener against Navy, and his rise continued right into the drubbing of Oregon in the national championship game. He has outstanding burst to the ball when he diagnoses. And he won't just chase plays sideline to sideline; he can beat ball carriers (and pass-catchers) to the spot in the backfield.
17. D'haquille "Duke" Williams, WR, Auburn Tigers
A dominant junior college player, Williams shined in his first season with the Tigers. At 6-2 and more than 220 pounds, he's a physical pass-catcher who will go through contact to get the ball. He shows an ability to jump over defenders; he takes the catch point higher. If there's a question mark here, it is whether the speed will match the physical talent.
18. *Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
An instant-impact talent in South Bend, Smith started all 13 games as a true freshman, then had a stellar sophomore campaign during which he picked up 112 tackles, including nine tackles for loss. Smith can be moved around, has good length and can flat-out fly for a linebacker, with sub-4.5 speed. He'll be a household name with a healthy 2015.
19. *Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon got the draft love, but no college running back got the final laugh like Elliot, who reached peak form in running over, around and through Oregon in the title tilt. Elliot is a nimble runner with outstanding vision and good change-of-direction quickness, but he's also quietly about 225 pounds and will drop his shoulder on defenders. Hopefully the Buckeyes keep his odometer down when they can and he'll have a healthy junior season.
20. *Tony Conner, S, Ole Miss Rebels
Yet another high school star who became an immediate impact in Oxford, Conner has the range of a safety but will come downhill like a linebacker. And at 217 pounds, he is comfortable near the line of scrimmage, even in the backfield; he did tie for the team lead with nine tackles for loss. He's one reason the 2016 safety class already looks better than the 2015 group.
21. *Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA Bruins
An athletic, instinctive, rangy linebacker, Jack can cover and make plays in the backfield. There was a lot of hype about the two-way player status, but the ability really is there. It's hard to question the football instincts when he was an offensive AND defensive freshman of the year in the conference at the same time. This will be a big year for Jack, who no longer has Eric Kendricks around; he'll need to lead this Bruins defense.
22. Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor Bears
A shredded athlete with big-time length at nearly 6-8, Oakman has great quickness and in some ways the look of an NBA small forward who packed on 40 pounds of muscle. He can win with quickness but has good strength and can use it when he doesn't let blockers use his height against him and dislodge him by getting into his body and taking away all his leverage. If he continues to build on 2014, he could have a monster season.
23. DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon Ducks
Arik Armstead was the name you heard about all spring, but if you watch the Oregon tape, Buckner is the guy who is making the big plays for the defense. He picked up 12.5 TFL and should build on his sack totals in 2015. At 6-7 and 290 pounds, he has an impressive frame and could be a fit in almost any kind of system with another year of polish.
24. *Su'a Cravens, S, USC Trojans
The Kam Chancellor of college football, Cravens brings a 225-pound frame to the safety position that allows him to drop into coverage or look dominant near the line of scrimmage and into the backfield. Check out the 17 tackles for loss. He has played in 26 games in his first two seasons and could have a special junior season.
25. *Cardale Jones, Ohio State Buckeyes
As a "stock," this is as volatile as it gets. Jones has some great physical tools and a dream stretch of games to build on. But he's also not a guarantee to be a starter in 2015, and not starting would change everything, because those three games then become less of a dream stretch and more of "just three games." In a nutshell (no pun intended, Buckeyes), Jones needs polish, which means reps. So he belongs here if he wins the job. If not, we need to back off a bit on the draft expectations.
[h=2]A dozen more considered (not in any order):[/h]
Vonn Bell, S, Ohio St.
An active safety, was second on the Buckeyes in tackles last season with 92.
Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska
A disruptive interior presence, he notched 10.5 TFL in 2014.
Spencer Drango, OT, Baylor
Has the length and quick feet to deal with speed off the edge.
Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan St.
A known pass-rushing commodity, he has 26.5 TFL in the past two seasons.
Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
A physically imposing linebacker who can move well, Ragland was easily Bama's top LB in 2014.
Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Yet another A&M tackle who will have played both LT and RT when he enters the draft process.
Max Tuerk, C, USC
A versatile talent, he already has started 33 games and has done so at every position. Dominant at center.
Scooby Wright III, OLB, Arizona
If it's about production, you won't do better than Wright, who led the nation with 29.0 TFL in 2014.
Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn
At 100 percent he's a force off the edge. SEC passers will have to know where he is in 2015.
Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
Was an immediate freshman starter in Baton Rouge, and built on that in 2014. The pipeline continues.
Eric Striker, OLB, Oklahoma
He's too quick for even some of the best tackles, but size questions will linger given that he has played at about 220 pounds.
Cody Kessler, QB, USC
Quietly rivaled Marcus Mariota for the best passing season in the Pac-12 in 2014, and maybe the best nationally.
ESPN INSIDER
There are hundreds (thousands?) of hours of work to be done on the 2016 NFL draft class, but as is custom, I have a first look about 355 days early. The usual question I get before you read this one: How was last year's offering? Actually, not terrible, at least at the top of the board. About 52 weeks ago, I had Jameis Winston at No. 1; Marcus Mariota at No. 4; Leonard Williams at No. 5; Amari Cooper at No. 6; Brandon Scherff at No. 7; Dante Fowler Jr. at No. 8; andAndrus Peat at No. 9. A couple of top-10 guys who fell dramatically were No. 3Randy Gregory (off-field issues) and No. 2 Cedric Ogbuehi (knee injury), but both of those weren't about football.
As for this class? My initial thought is it looks more unpredictable, just because there's SO much sorting to be done with the quarterbacks. It's just a really unsettled group at this stage. But that's part of the fun.
A couple of parameters: This includes all players who could be eligible for the 2016 NFL draft based on time spent in college, which means juniors and redshirt sophomores qualify. I'm not going to provide a lot of scouting notes at this point, with most of the evaluation work on this class still to come. Note that in two weeks, I'll release early rankings across every position group, about 200 players in total.
An asterisk denotes a junior for the 2015 season; two asterisks denote a redshirt sophomore.
John Bosa was the No. 3-ranked defensive end in my 1987 draft guide coming out of Boston College and eventually went No. 17 overall to Miami. I'd put No. 17 overall on the low end of any projections for his son. Joey has size (6-foot-6, 275 pounds), versatility that will fit any scheme and the ability to go around blockers or right through them. He has piled up 34.5 tackles for loss in two seasons, and that's without a developmental redshirt season.
He will be coming back from a fibula fracture suffered in the Peach Bowl, but Tunsil is still just a true junior with two sparkling seasons of play against top competition, all following a highly celebrated prep career. A nimble but powerful left tackle prospect, he has all the traits you look for at that spot.
A does-it-all secondary talent who has already started 28 college games heading into his junior season, Ramsey would have been the top safety taken in the 2015 draft had he been allowed to enter. He has length, range and exceptional instincts to make plays all over the field.
The top name in the incredible Ole Miss recruiting Class of 2013, Nkemdiche moved inside after starting his Rebels career on the edge. He has exceptional movement skills for a player his size (6-4, 280 pounds). And although I want to see more production from him, he has been thrown into the mix early, all while making position adjustments, and has the potential to break out in 2015 as he gets comfortable.
What Hargreaves lacks in size, he makes up for in instincts and effortless fluidity in moving with receivers. He's not that small, really, at 5-11 and about 195 pounds, and I think he would have been the top CB taken in the 2015 draft, if available. And this isn't just projection; he has played in 24 games and already has picked off six passes before his junior season.
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A sturdy interior defender at more than 320 pounds, Robinson was an immediate impact player at Alabama, notching 5.5 sacks as a freshman. Though he can eat up blocks on the inside, he's actually in the backfield a lot, because he's got strength and impressive athletic ability for a man his size. To be an instant-impact player at Bama is usually a good sign, and Robinson should continue to get better.
At 6-2 and nearly 230 pounds, Treadwell, has size, speed and tremendous hands. He was unquestionably the best WR on the team as a true freshman, even with Donte Moncrief still around. And while his season was cut short in 2014 due to an ugly injury, Treadwell should be 100 percent in the fall. If he stays that way, he's got the potential to be a first-rounder next spring.
Born in Nigeria, Ogbah moved to Texas with his family and came up playing high school football in Houston. A raw talent who needed a redshirt season, he broke though in 2014 with 17.5 tackles for loss, often showing exceptional quickness for a player standing 6-4 and carrying a lean 275 pounds. If the growth curve continues with this kid, watch out.
The system at Cal is going to produce numbers, but Goff's 35 touchdown passes against seven interceptions are good anywhere. The big sell here is a big-time arm. Goff can drill the ball down the field and into tight windows with ease, and he has strong movement skills and anticipation for a player with good length who seems to see the whole field. Goff's totals are going to be significant, so the question of whether the skills translate quickly will be the key question.
There was some talk that Stanley should have jumped into the 2015 draft, but I think he was wise to return to South Bend. The pedigree and upside thus far beats the consistency, and another year should have him in great draft position. He already has 13 starts at right tackle as a freshman, followed by 13 at left tackle as a sophomore, so he'll marry plenty of experience to prototypical length and movement skills.
11. *Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State Nittany Lions
After a freshman season that showed tons of promise and also matched the considerable hype, Hackenberg struggled mightily as a true sophomore behind a bad offensive line -- and through what could not have been an easy coaching transition, as outgoing coach Bill O'Brien has a superb reputation among quarterbacks. There is no question 2015 will be a scrutinized season for a kid with obvious NFL tools.
12. *Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State Spartans
Once a walk-on for Mark Dantonio, Conklin is now one of the most steady, complete offensive tackle prospects in college football. At 6-6 and more than 320 pounds, he moves well (he was a good former high school basketball player) and is most impressive in his consistency -- he just doesn't give up sacks. Conklin could be a great draft story, if he maintains his form in 2015.
13. *Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech Hokies
It goes beyond pedigree with Fuller. He has three older brothers who all went to VT and all landed in the NFL, and Kendall might be the best of the bunch. He has great instincts in coverage, plays physical and was an All-American in 2014, even though he wasn't at 100 percent. With 25 starts already under his belt, he'll have a ton of experience by the time 2015 is over.
14. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State Buckeyes
Moving well with a 6-8 frame, Decker was a building-block piece for an offensive line that came together in dominant fashion late in the 2014 season and into the playoffs. He has played both tackle positions and will be the top prospect on what should be one of the best lines in the country in 2015.
15. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State Spartans
It's more about tools than polish at this point, but Cook has a quick release with enough zip down the field and shows well-above-average mobility for a player his size (6-4, 220). On the downside, he often doesn't have his feet set when he throws, and the accuracy suffers. I think Cook made a good call to come back, because there's a lot to like but plenty to work on.
16. *Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Lee was truly shot out of a cannon as an NFL prospect in 2014, starting with big plays in the opener against Navy, and his rise continued right into the drubbing of Oregon in the national championship game. He has outstanding burst to the ball when he diagnoses. And he won't just chase plays sideline to sideline; he can beat ball carriers (and pass-catchers) to the spot in the backfield.
17. D'haquille "Duke" Williams, WR, Auburn Tigers
A dominant junior college player, Williams shined in his first season with the Tigers. At 6-2 and more than 220 pounds, he's a physical pass-catcher who will go through contact to get the ball. He shows an ability to jump over defenders; he takes the catch point higher. If there's a question mark here, it is whether the speed will match the physical talent.
18. *Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
An instant-impact talent in South Bend, Smith started all 13 games as a true freshman, then had a stellar sophomore campaign during which he picked up 112 tackles, including nine tackles for loss. Smith can be moved around, has good length and can flat-out fly for a linebacker, with sub-4.5 speed. He'll be a household name with a healthy 2015.
19. *Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon got the draft love, but no college running back got the final laugh like Elliot, who reached peak form in running over, around and through Oregon in the title tilt. Elliot is a nimble runner with outstanding vision and good change-of-direction quickness, but he's also quietly about 225 pounds and will drop his shoulder on defenders. Hopefully the Buckeyes keep his odometer down when they can and he'll have a healthy junior season.
20. *Tony Conner, S, Ole Miss Rebels
Yet another high school star who became an immediate impact in Oxford, Conner has the range of a safety but will come downhill like a linebacker. And at 217 pounds, he is comfortable near the line of scrimmage, even in the backfield; he did tie for the team lead with nine tackles for loss. He's one reason the 2016 safety class already looks better than the 2015 group.
21. *Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA Bruins
An athletic, instinctive, rangy linebacker, Jack can cover and make plays in the backfield. There was a lot of hype about the two-way player status, but the ability really is there. It's hard to question the football instincts when he was an offensive AND defensive freshman of the year in the conference at the same time. This will be a big year for Jack, who no longer has Eric Kendricks around; he'll need to lead this Bruins defense.
22. Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor Bears
A shredded athlete with big-time length at nearly 6-8, Oakman has great quickness and in some ways the look of an NBA small forward who packed on 40 pounds of muscle. He can win with quickness but has good strength and can use it when he doesn't let blockers use his height against him and dislodge him by getting into his body and taking away all his leverage. If he continues to build on 2014, he could have a monster season.
23. DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon Ducks
Arik Armstead was the name you heard about all spring, but if you watch the Oregon tape, Buckner is the guy who is making the big plays for the defense. He picked up 12.5 TFL and should build on his sack totals in 2015. At 6-7 and 290 pounds, he has an impressive frame and could be a fit in almost any kind of system with another year of polish.
24. *Su'a Cravens, S, USC Trojans
The Kam Chancellor of college football, Cravens brings a 225-pound frame to the safety position that allows him to drop into coverage or look dominant near the line of scrimmage and into the backfield. Check out the 17 tackles for loss. He has played in 26 games in his first two seasons and could have a special junior season.
25. *Cardale Jones, Ohio State Buckeyes
As a "stock," this is as volatile as it gets. Jones has some great physical tools and a dream stretch of games to build on. But he's also not a guarantee to be a starter in 2015, and not starting would change everything, because those three games then become less of a dream stretch and more of "just three games." In a nutshell (no pun intended, Buckeyes), Jones needs polish, which means reps. So he belongs here if he wins the job. If not, we need to back off a bit on the draft expectations.
[h=2]A dozen more considered (not in any order):[/h]
Vonn Bell, S, Ohio St.
An active safety, was second on the Buckeyes in tackles last season with 92.
Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska
A disruptive interior presence, he notched 10.5 TFL in 2014.
Spencer Drango, OT, Baylor
Has the length and quick feet to deal with speed off the edge.
Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan St.
A known pass-rushing commodity, he has 26.5 TFL in the past two seasons.
Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
A physically imposing linebacker who can move well, Ragland was easily Bama's top LB in 2014.
Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Yet another A&M tackle who will have played both LT and RT when he enters the draft process.
Max Tuerk, C, USC
A versatile talent, he already has started 33 games and has done so at every position. Dominant at center.
Scooby Wright III, OLB, Arizona
If it's about production, you won't do better than Wright, who led the nation with 29.0 TFL in 2014.
Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn
At 100 percent he's a force off the edge. SEC passers will have to know where he is in 2015.
Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
Was an immediate freshman starter in Baton Rouge, and built on that in 2014. The pipeline continues.
Eric Striker, OLB, Oklahoma
He's too quick for even some of the best tackles, but size questions will linger given that he has played at about 220 pounds.
Cody Kessler, QB, USC
Quietly rivaled Marcus Mariota for the best passing season in the Pac-12 in 2014, and maybe the best nationally.
