| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.60 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 45 | 0.00 | +2.64 |
| Season to Date | 67 | 78 | 0.00 | +5.07 |
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Listed pitchers must go
Two plays are 2 units. Wash is 2.16 units to win 2.
TORONTO -1½ +171 over Chicago
12:35 PM EST. It’s very nice that the South Side went off for nine runs yesterday but that was against knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and his 75 MPH fastball when his knuckler wasn’t knuckling. The other problem is that the Jays scored 10 times. Throw out that game and the South Side scored three runs or less in eight straight games. Throw out last night’s game and the White Sox have it .198 over their last 12 games and now they’ll face an under the radar pitcher in Marco Estrada. Current White Sox have six hits in 34 AB’s versus Estrada. That’s a BA of .176. Estrada started the year in the Jays pen but he’s a starter at heart and has deserved a much better fate recently. The Jays have lost all four of Estrada’s starts but it’s not because he pitched poorly. In fact, Estrada has struck out 13 batters over his last 12 innings covering his past two starts. Those K’s come with full support in his 13% swing and miss rate. Estrada’s groundball rate is trending large in the right direction and so, too, is his low 17% line-drive rate. The Jays are heating up and we have to believe we’ll see a little extra motivation from them here in an attempt to get Estrada his first win as a starter in a Blue Jays uniform. Besides, this is Estrada’s easiest assignment to date.
The White Sox have dropped four in a row and six of seven. Their collective state of mind now comes into question after blowing a 9-7 lead in the bottom of the ninth last night. In 2014 Jeff Samardzija emerged as a legitimate ace, and he’s been priced like one on several occasions this season. The market still likes this guy but we have our doubts. Samardzija traded jerseys three times over the past year and is struggling in his current landing spot in the South Side. We're seeing a few troublesome nuggets too. The Ks haven't been as prevalent as in years past. His fastball velocity is currently its lowest in four years (93 mph), and he's inducing fewer swinging strikes. He hasn't maintained his groundball approach (just 36%) thus far, while line-drive % says hitters are really squaring him up. The biggest concern, however, is how badly moving from pitcher-friendly O.Co Coliseum to U.S. Cellular Field (+13% LHB HR) will hurt him, given his tendency to give up the long ball. Pitching at Rogers Center in a day game with the roof open is a recipe for the long ball for a fly-ball pitcher like Samardzija. Samardzija’s road ERA is 5.73. He’s been worse in day games than he has in night games. He’ll have some value down the road because he’s still very serviceable but the true value in this game is on the Jays and Marco Estrada.
Washington -108 over CHICAGO
Max Scherzer owns a 2.85 xERA and 8.6 K’s/9 over his last five starts. Overall, Scherzer has a BB/K split of 9/72 in 64.2 innings. Scherzer is posting the best skills of his career in his first season in the NL with the key being him throwing more strikes. His 71% first pitch strike % is at an elite level and has never been better, and his 15% swing and miss rate is better than ever too. The Cubs are below-league-average against right-handers, and they own a .665 OPS against this particular right-hander. Chicago has also scuffled at home, producing a .689 OPS. Not often are we going to get Scherzer spotting less than a dime but when we do, it’s usually going to come with great value because his win expectation is so high. That applies here.
Jon Lester is doing just fine on the North Side with 4-2 record after nine starts with a 3.56 ERA. That ERA is right in line with his xERA of 3.50. However, Lester’s xERA over his last four starts is 4.10. His first pitch strike rate over that span was just 57% and his swing and miss rate was just 8%. Furthermore, Lester posted an unsustainable 94% strand rate over his last five starts, which is the real reason behind his 1.85 ERA during that stretch. Don’t believe it for a second. Lester is decent for sure but he’s not THIS good. Combine Lester’s lucky strand rate with his declining strikes/swing and misses and throw in a below average WHIP of 1.31 and what you have is some blowups on the horizon. The market sees this matchup as being fairly even but we don’t see it that way at all.
Texas +150 over CLEVELAND
12:05 PM EST. Hopefully we’re not too late to jump on this bandwagon. The Rangers are playing outstanding ball and have a swagger about them that was missing all of last year. Winning can do that to a team. The Rangers have reeled off seven in a row and have a great chance to extend that with Colby Lewis on the hill. You wouldn't guess it from his 5.18 ERA, but Colby Lewis wasn't all bad in 2014, especially in the second half, where he posted some decent skills while drastically improving his control. Now over a year removed from the hip surgery that torpedoed his 2013, Lewis is coming on big time. Over his last 33 innings, Lewis has a BB/K split of 9/29. Expect his walks to decrease, as he’s only walked 14 this entire year. His first pitch strike rate of 68% supports fewer walks in the future. From his 1.12 WHIP to his 3.49 ERA to his low 17% line-drive rate, Lewis is a great proposition at this price pitching for a team that is seeing beach balls at the dish. The Rangers have scored 44 runs over their past five games.
Carlos Carrasco is a strikeout pitcher with a ton of upside. He already has 58 K’s in 49 innings but he’s struggled at home, where he is just 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA. That number is coming down for sure but it may have to wait for another day because Rangers’ batters do not strike out often. In fact, Texas ranks 9th with the fewest strikeouts in MLB but they are just seven K’s from ranking third. At Progressive Field this season, Carrasco has allowed 22 hits in 20 innings for an oppBA of .289. When Carrasco faced the Rangers earlier this year in Arlington, he was tagged for five earned runs. This isn’t a no-confidence vote for Carrasco. He can pitch and his numbers will reflect it by the end of the year. However, Carrasco is still fine tuning his talent and is not ready to be priced in this range just yet against the hottest hitting team in the majors. Price and current form of the Rangers is the driving force behind this play.
