3 Thursday w/analysis

Cleveland is 2.5 units to win 2. Boston is 2.04 units to win 2. Tigers are for 2 units.
Listed pitchers must go.

Detroit +128 over L.A. ANGELS
We’re definitely interested in fading the Angels when they’re priced in this range because their offense is so anemic. L.A. ranks last in the AL in several offensive categories, which includes team BA (.233) and on base percentage (.289). Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia is using several different lineups in a desperate attempt to play anyone who shows an offensive pulse. Now this struggling offense will face a pitcher they’ve never seen in Buck Farmer. Farmer will slide into the injured Kyle Lobstein’s rotation spot for at least one start and probably more. A fifth-round pick out of Georgia Tech in ’13, Farmer ascended quickly to the majors by striking out more than a batter per inning with above-average control. The results weren’t as favorable during his nine innings with Detroit (11.57 ERA) last year, but he has bounced back nicely, showing even more advanced control during some excellent starts for Toledo. Farmer repeats his mechanics well and can locate each of his three pitches (fastball, slider, change-up) with consistency. He throws with long arm action and lacks much deception, but can utilize his 6’4" height and ¾ arm slot to generate nice sinking action on his pitches. While lacking elite upside, Farmer has proven to be durable with consistent results, and will slot in nicely as a spot starter or replacement starter for now. Since 2013, Farmer has thrown 206.1 minor league innings and posted a 3.05 ERA with 9.3 K’s/9. This year at Toledo, Farmer has posted a 2.98 ERA over 51.1 frames with an oppBA of .237 and surrendering just one jack.

C. J. Wilson suffered an ankle injury in the second half of last year and was never the same afterwards. He has shown a slight rebound this season but there’s nothing extraordinary about any of his skills. Wilson’s fastball tops off at 89.9 MPH. He has a BB/K split of 16/42 in 59 innings. Current Tigers have 125 plate appearances against Wilson and have 38 hits for a combined average of .281. Wilson has more smarts than skills, which definitely counts for something. He studies hitters like nobody’s business but no matter how you break it down, he’s an average pitcher with weak offensive support behind him. Backing a recent call-up (Farmer) making his first start of the year at this level carries some risk but so does backing a team that can’t hit with a starter that is at the tail end of his career and is very average to begin with. Throw in the tag in this 50/50 proposition and we trust we’re going with the best of it.

Boston -102 over TEXAS
Nick Martinez is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA through nine starts this season. The combination of a 27% hit rate and 86% strand rate have made him one of the luckier pitchers in the league, exhibited by his 4.47 xERA. Only one of his four home starts this season has resulted in a quality start and in his career, he owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 81 innings at home. In 55 innings, Martinez has a BB/K split of 17/30. Given his less-than-pedestrian skills, it’s quite remarkable that Martinez has a better ERA than some of the best pitchers in the game. There is simply no possible way for Martinez’s luck to hold up much longer. When favored, Martinez must be faded because a series of blowups is almost 100% guaranteed. It may not happen here but it will happen and should we lose this game it’s no big deal because we’ll get it back with interest when Martinez is favored again at some point. That said, we don’t expect to lose it.

On the heels of a strong 2015 start, the 6'2", 210-pound Eduardo Rodriguez will make his major league debut in here. He ranked #9 on Baseball America’s top prospect list and projects as a solid #2 or #3 starter at maturity. Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela by the Baltimore Orioles in 2010, Rodriguez was traded for Andrew Miller July 31, 2014. He’s demonstrated an ability to miss bats, command pitches, and keep the ball on the ground at each stop of his four-plus-year rise through the two systems. Rodriguez boasts three pitches that project to be above-average. His best offering is a plus change-up and his fastball dials up to 95 mph. There is excellent movement on all three pitches, including his low-80s mph slider, and Rodriguez does a nice job of repeating his mechanics and delivery. At Pawtucket this season in 48.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.98 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 8.2 K’s/9, a .256 oppBA and he’s allowed just 2 home runs. We’re very willing to back this kid in this spot. Rodriguez has the arsenal to thrive and pitch a very good game here but even if he fails, the Red Sox should have a legit shot of winning because of their legit shot to put up a crooked number against Martinez.

Cleveland -125 over SEATTLE
With a total of just 6½, spotting 1½-runs would be too risky so we’ll step out and spot the price instead because there is great value in backing this favorite. Cory Kluber is a steal in this price range against James Paxton. Kluber started the season 0-5 in his first seven starts, but he has clearly hit his stride recently. Over his last three starts, Kluber is 3-0 with a 37/1 K/BB over 25 innings. The skill set he has posted this season (2.54 xERA, 1.6 BB’s/9, 10.7 K’s/9, 15% swing and miss rate, 50% groundball rate) is even better than his Cy Young campaign of last season so expect those elite results to keep on coming. Kluber’s numbers are beyond sick.

James Paxton is rolling along with three wins in his last four starts, where he has a 1.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 IP. A closer look reveals that during this nice streak, he has shown some troubling signs with a BB/K split of 15/13 and a 4.75 xERA. Paxton has promise with some very decent skills but you can’t keep walking hitters at this level and wiggle your way out of it constantly. Paxton has just a 54% first-pitch strike rate, meaning he’s falling behind almost half the hitters he’s facing. He has an unsustainable 88% strand rate over his last six starts and his 6% swing and miss rate over that same span says he’s walking a very thin line. It’s only going to take an aggressive team like the Indians to put runners in motion when he inevitably walks some batters and chaos could ensue. Regardless, Kluber has a great chance of shutting down these Mariners and picking up another victory. Not often is there value in a favorite with such a great pitcher going but this is one of those rare instances where there is nothing but value.
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Scouting:

Chris Beck (RHP - CHW)
The 24-year-old was recalled to serve as the 26th man on the roster for Chicago's doubleheader on Saturday, May 9 but he did not pitch on that day, as the White Sox went with Carlos Rodon and Hector Noesi instead. Beck was a second-round pick in the 2012 draft with the hopes he would get to the majors quickly. That hasn’t been the case, as his stuff has devolved from above-average to fringe-average. He is strong and durable and uses a drop-and-drive delivery that often can be too stiff. Beck runs his fastball into the 90-95 mph range and he does a nice job of sinking it low in the zone to induce groundballs. At one time, his slider was a devastating offering. While it is still average, it lacks bite and doesn’t miss many bats. He also uses both a curveball and change-up. Beck's breaking ball has backed up since college, when he flashed a plus-plus slider with power and depth. He has lost the feel for the slider as well as the proper shape on the pitch, which lacks depth and now resembles a cutter. As a result, he lacks a strikeout pitch and has had to focus on getting weak contact. He doesn't command his fastball well or consistently sink it. His changeup has evolved into an average pitch with some sink, and he throws a loopy, early-count curveball. Beck’s strikeout rate has been disappointing and his oppBA has been much too high in the upper minors. If his plus slider ever returns, he could be a mid-rotation factor. In the meantime, he's rotation insurance for now and not a guy to back at this level just yet. He owns a career 3.57 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.4 K’s/9 in the minors.

2015 STATS: Charlotte (AAA) – 5 starts, 1-1 4.78 ERA, 26.1 IP, 1.4 BB/9, 6.2 K’s/9, 3 HR, .290 oppBA

Tyler Wilson (RHP - BAL)
As Bud Norris heads to the DL, 25-year-old Tyler Wilson gets the call up and will make his major league starting debut when he pitches in the first game of a DH against the White Sox. The 6'2", 185-pound right-hander doesn't have a high ceiling, but he knows how to pitch and he doesn't beat himself. He can be hit hard, but his typically low walk rate helps minimize the damage. His fastball only reaches the low-90’s MPH, he has an average slider and a below-average change-up. He moves the ball in and out of the zone effectively, and his stamina holds his velocity late in the game. Drafted out of Virginia after his senior year in 2011, he's made slow, steady progress through the system, culminating in his being named Baltimore's minor league pitcher of the year in 2014. He went 14-8 with a 3.67 ERA in 28 starts at Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk and tied for ninth in the minors with 157 innings. Wilson's strong season was the result of a solid-average fastball, improved secondary pitches and a work ethic that one Baltimore staff member ranked as good as any in the organization. Wilson pitched at 90-94 mph, showing an uptick in velocity after a winter of workouts. His slider and changeup now also rate solid-average. His slider showed tight spin and good depth. A strike-thrower, Wilson has averaged 2.3 walks per nine in his career. Wilson has the potential to become a #5 starter at the major league level. In six seasons in the minors his ERA was 3.71 with a 1.16 WHIP in 533.2 IP.
2015 STATS: Norfolk (AAA) – 39.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K’s/9, 3 HR, .273 oppBA

on boston and detroit as well


gl to us both