almost time to get on the sidelines fellas

TheFalls · May 28, 2015

i'm not sure what the safe play is here either. i'll prob have some inverse stuff working, but it may ALL blow up.
it's the year of the shemitah. and it lines up with martin a. armstong's model as well.
either way, i'll more than likely be all out by the end of 2Q.

i'm all ears if you have a play here.

FrankieCarbone · Jun 1, 2015

If asset prices collapse and deflation kicks in full swing, I'd think cash would be the way to go. I can't see any inflationary pressure coming from anywhere...unless the Fed decides to go full print mode and distribute dollars directly into the economy instead of parking it at banks. I'm glad I sold my house a few months ago, as I can see another drop in house prices coming. I still think go mostly cash, and maybe keep a small position in a few high yield dividend paying stocks like T, VZ...etc.

The Falls said:
i'm not sure what the safe play is here either. i'll prob have some inverse stuff working, but it may ALL blow up.
it's the year of the shemitah. and it lines up with martin a. armstong's model as well.
either way, i'll more than likely be all out by the end of 2Q.

i'm all ears if you have a play here.

TheFalls · Jun 2, 2015

Nice. I'll be mostly cash. If cash blow up? I think gold sinks anyways as well...and after that?
Your idea of the Fed directly handing out money sounds ridiculous...but I will not be surprised if something along those lines eventually happens.
I've seen models that I don't think are too far-fetched that put real estate in essentially a 20 year down trend.

Are you renting now? I sold a couple of years ago, and that house is now up 30%. That's pretty sick.

FrankieCarbone · Jun 2, 2015

Yeah, I'm renting for now. Bought a house in Phoenix back in 2012, and sold after it appreciated near 40%. I'll live in a condo for awhile and not worry about dealing with the headaches of homeownership, but will jump back in when I feel it's the right time to buy. I just don't see prices going much higher from here.

TheFalls · Jun 8, 2015

and then there's the triple crown jinx

Since 1928 (when S&P data begins), there have been ten Triple Crown winners. Following those ten victories, the average change of the S&P 500 for the rest of the year was a decline of 9.01% with positive returns only once (Omaha). On the other hand, looking at the S&P’s performance in all years since 1928 where there was not a Triple Crown winner, the index has averaged a gain of more than 5% with positive returns more than 75% of the time.

zardoz884 · Jun 8, 2015

just keep printing the federal reserve cash and everything will be ok

CHOPTALK · Jun 10, 2015

Every time I'm about to get out it bounces back.

CHOPTALK · Jun 10, 2015

I think the key number is around 2040
That's the number I'm looking at

brucefan · Jun 11, 2015

CHOPTALK said:
I think the key number is around 2040
That's the number I'm looking at

agree

TheFalls · Aug 22, 2015

Have been out over a month.
And have a little inverse working.

On vacation this week and I see that 2040 level got smoked.

Michelangelo · Aug 24, 2015

Cleared all positions on 7/8. The market bounced after that but I held tight and am sure glad I did.

bounceback · Nov 12, 2015

is now a good time to buy s&p?

brucefan · Nov 12, 2015

If they raise rates, we go lower and go back in recession ( if we are not in one already ) if we get more QE, we stay up .

Nothing else matters

TheFalls · Jan 16, 2016

Still out. And making some gains with SPXS.
It's nasty out there.

Queue the PPT.

almost time to get on the sidelines fellas

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