4 Tuesday w/analysis

Listed pitchers must go.
Atlanta is 2.12 units to win 2, the others are all for 2 units.

Cincinnati -1½ +111 over PHILADELPHIA
We suppose there are a few nits to pick in regard to Johnny Cueto. His low hit rate of 26% probably can’t last. His groundball/fly-ball split of 41%/37% is nothing to write home about either. Those are the only two “blemishes” in his profile. But enough with the nits. With a BB/K split of 12/60 over 65 frames, a 67% first-pitch strike rate and the ability to constantly get hitter’s to do what he wants, Cueto’s skills now places him in an elite class. Proceed with confidence.

The Phillies are just biding their time. They’re developing pitchers in the minor leagues while using fill-ins for now at the major league level. Among those fillers are Jerome Williams, Aaron Harang (although he’s pitching well above expectations) and today’s starter, Sean O’ Sullivan. O’Sullivan recently returned from a stint on the DL and has lost three of four games since. Sullivan has surrendered nine bombs in 33 innings. He has a swing and miss rate of 5%. He has a career xERA of 5.28 with a career K-rate of 4.3 K’s/9. This year he has 18 K’s in 34 frames. Sean O’Sullivan has a job because the Phillies are rebuilding. If they released him, he would be counting heads on the bus of some minor league team. Huge pitching mismatch in the Reds favor and it sure doesn’t hurt that Cinci is coming off a three-game sweep over the Nationals in which they scored 21 times against a very good staff. After facing Washington pitching, facing O’Sullivan should appear in slow motion for these Reds’ batters.

Atlanta -106 over ARIZONA
A strong start to his major league career served to raise expectations for Shelby Miller as the 2014 season approached. Unfortunately, Miller wasn’t able to live up to the rather immense hype and subsequently became expendable. The Braves acquired Miller and Tyrell Jenkins from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden. There were some negatives in Miller’s skill set last year but if you look closely, there was reason to be optimistic. Overall, Miller’s control was worse than 2013 but 2H gains, which were supported by his first pitch strike rate, gave reason for hope. Miller rallied with a strong September (7.7 Ks/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.37 xERA, 66% first-pitch strike and a 9% swing and miss rate in 30 IP). Miller began using a new grip on his sinker on August 23 of last year. Prior to that day, he had only thrown the sinker a grand total of 14 times during the 2014 season. From then on, 13% of the pitches he threw were sinkers and his overall performance improved (2.08 ERA, 6.7 K’s/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 43 IP). Miller showed improvement against left-handed batters and perhaps most encouraging is that he held lefties to a miniscule .179/.256/.205 slash line with 0 HR while posting a 30% strikeout percentage against them during the month of September. In addition to the tweak Miller made on August 23 with regard to his sinker, he also started throwing his four-seam fastball less and began utilizing his curveball more (four-seam fastball usage down 15%, curve up 10% and sinker up 13%). Those changes seemed to pay pretty significant dividends down the stretch and well into this season. He had previously relied on what was essentially a two-pitch arsenal when you consider he threw his fastball 71% of the time and his curve around 18% of the time. Now armed with a sinker to go with a 94 mph four-seam fastball, curve and cutter, Miller’s underlying skills says his great start to 2015 is completely legit.

Then there’s Josh Collmenter. Collmenter got off to a decent start this season, as he had a 2.76 ERA after five April starts. But the wheels fell off in May, where he could not muster a pure quality start in five tries, while posting a 8.14 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, which were both well supported by a horrendous 5.52 xERA. Collemnter has 29 measly strikeouts in 57 frames. Putting the ball in play at Chase Field is usually not good strategy. Over his last five starts, Collmenter’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 25%/26%/48% is horrendous. It’s not unusual for Collmenter to throw 100 pitches in five innings. He’s allowed at least one jack in five straight starts but he’s also been taken yard three times in one game and twice in another over that span. That’s 8 bombs allowed over his past five starts. This is not a good matchup for him either, as the Braves are a patient hitting team that takes a lot of pitches and they make the pitcher throw strikes. The Braves went off against Archie Bradley last night and they figure to put up a crooked number again against this stiff.

Oakland +121 over DETROIT
For most of his career, Alfredo Simon was a reliever. But in 2014, the Reds used him strictly as a starter and he responded by going 15-10 with a decent 3.44 ERA. With five wins in his first nine starts for the Tigers and a stingy 2.67 ERA, it looks like Simon has picked up where he left off. Worthy of some attention, right? Not so fast. Simon is outperforming his xERA (4.17) by almost 1½ runs. An elevated and unsustainable 80% strand rate is the main reason for his low ERA. For such a low 56% first-pitch strike rate, Simon isn’t giving up many walks; don’t expect that to continue. His swing and miss rate is league average, so it’s not surprising his strikeout numbers are not great. While it’s not unusual for velocity to drop in the transition to a starting pitcher, Simon’s velocity (92.3 mph) is down from last year’s average as a starter (94.0 mph). He’s also giving up lots of line drives, which corresponds to a drop in his groundball production. With so few Ks, Simon is relying heavily on his low walk totals and his hit % and strand % variances. It’s very likely he’ll see a rise in ERA over the rest of the year. It’s best to let someone else pay for his low ERA while we scoop up prices against him before the inevitable ERA regression occurs.

Kendall Graveman replaced Drew Pomeranz in the A’s rotation on May 23 and threw a gem against the Rays. Five days later he wasn’t as effective against the Yankees but that doesn’t mean he was bad. Graveman, you may recall, made the A's rotation out of camp, but was unusually wild (5 BB’s/9) and was pummeled in four starts before quickly being sent down. He figured some things out in the minors and pitched better at Triple-A with better control. After signing in 2013, Graveman has had a meteoric rise through four levels of the minors before a taste with the Blue Jays in 2014. He just posted a spring-training leading 0.36 ERA in 25.1 IP, with a 17/7 K/BB. At 6-2, 195 pounds, Graveman works with a bunch of average pitches, but advanced pitchability, plus control, maturity, and makeup all push the profile up, giving him the potential to eat up good innings. His above-average sinking fastball works 90-94 and he keeps the ball down and in the park (5 HR in 207.0 IP). His cutter flashes above-average, and his curve and change both are average pitches that he mixes in well. We like this kid. In 12 innings since being recalled, he has a sick 66% groundball rate and an even sicker 9% line-drive rate. In those 12 innings, he struck out 10 and walked four. We’d like to see his strike percentage higher but he has all the tools and smarts to stick around.

N.Y. Yankees +100 over Seattle
C.C. Sabathia is holding left-handed batters to a .359 OPS this season. Unfortunately he can't get out right-handed batters, as they are raking it against him to the tune of a .926 OPS. The Mariners may present a tough matchup, as they hit left-handed pitching well with a .770 OPS but it’s a gamble we’re willing to take. You see, Sabathia’s 3.70 xERA is almost two full runs lower than his 5.67 ERA, so there is some definite upside with him. He has great control (12 BB in 60 innings), a decent strikeout rate (51 K’s) and a very workable 46%/20%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. This one however, is more about fading a pitcher making his MLB debut.

Michael Montgomery was a top prospect after being drafted 36th overall way back in 2008 by the Royals with a $988,000 signing bonus. In 2009, Montgomery was rated the top prospect in the organization but things have gone downhill from there. After he struggled for two straight seasons in Triple-A and was even worse after a demotion to Double-A in mid-2012, Kansas City decided it couldn’t wait any longer. The Royals included him in the four-prospect package that pried James Shields and Wade Davis from the Rays in December. At his best, Montgomery still shows a 92-93 fastball that touches 95 mph, along with a plus changeup. But as he tried to implement a lower arm slot, his fastball often dipped to 88-90 mph. Montgomery never has gotten comfortable with his erratic curveball, and he’ll try to work in a slider and a cutter as he looks for something to reverse his surprising lack of a platoon advantage. Lefties are way too comfortable against him, as his .294 BAA against them at Triple-A this year will attest to. In 2012 and 2013 combined, he posted a .993 OPS against lefties. Montgomery has been toiling in the minors for a long time with some extremely poor numbers, which includes an ERA of 5.32 at Triple-A in 2011, a 5.69 ERA in 2012, a 6.23 ERA in the Florida State League in early 2013 after a poor 2012 and the list goes on and on and on. Montgomery has been trying to regain his confidence and swagger for years. This season, he’s put up solid numbers at Triple-A Tacoma, with a 3.74 ERA, 47 Ks, and 15 BBs in 53 IP, which is by far the best command he’s shown since his untroubled days as a hot prospect. We’re suggesting the M’s want to see what they have in him because they don’t want to give up (or spend a fortune) waiting to find out. Montgomery is a lottery ticket not worth scratching right now. C.C. Sabathia is going to wake up today to find out that a career minor-leaguer is favored over him. That should get his juices flowing in the right direction.

Scouting:

Tyler Cravy (RHP - MIL)
Drafted in the 17th round (526th overall) by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2009, Cravy’s climb to the big leagues is both remarkable and unexpected. Cravy was a minor-league reliever that was going nowhere until something clicked late in 2013 when he was moved into the rotation at Brevard County of the Florida State League. After a few undistinguished seasons in the bullpen, Cravy flourished that year as a starter, posting a 2.04 ERA over nine starts. That was the case again in 2014 at Double-A Huntsville, where he put together a strong first half and started the Southern League all-star game. Subsequently, the Brewers bumped him to Triple-A Nashville, but he strained his oblique in his first start. He made up for lost time by pitching in Venezuela's winter league. Cravy works fast and pounds the zone with a 90-91 mph sinker. His slider sits at 84-86 mph with good bite and he keeps hitters off balance with a slower curveball. Mix in a cutter and a changeup and he has a starter's repertoire and the kind of command that makes him difficult to hit. The Brewers love the way he competes and pitches with no fear, allowing weak contact and recording quick outs. Pitching for Colorado Springs (AAA) in the Pacific Coast League this season, a real hitter’s league, Cravy went 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA over nine starts covering 49 innings.
His penchant for keeping the ball down served him well at Colorado Springs and should serve him well at this level too.
2015 stats at Colorado Springs: 9gs, 49 IP, 43 H, 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 22 BB, 43 K’s, oppBA .235

ATL is a great suggestion to play. Ty