| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.34 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 50 | 0.00 | -13.54 |
| Season to Date | 76 | 92 | 0.00 | -3.85 |
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All plays are for 2 units except the total, which is 2.02 units to win 2 at Pinny
Milwaukee +142 over ST. LOUIS
1:45 PM EST. The Brewers have the worst record in baseball but we’re seeing a lot of good things from them recently that suggests they could return to the form they were in for the first four months of last year. The Brewers are finally healthy with Jonathan Lucroy and Adam Lind back. This Brewers’ offense is too good to be held in check much longer, so it’s only a matter of time before they go off. With 37 combined hits in 107 AB’s (.346) against John Lackey, there’s a decent chance this undervalued Milwaukee club scores a few here. What John Lackey will do is throw strikes and probably last six or seven innings. In fact, his 30% ball% and 70% strike% both were some of the best in MLB during April and May. What he likely won’t do is dominate. Lackey’s league average xERA of 3.80 is a full run higher than his actual ERA, which suggests some regression. He’ll likely provide the Brewers several scoring opportunities and the hope is that the Brewers will cash some in. Lackey has an unsustainable 81% strand rate over his last five starts and other than his great control, the rest of his skills are very average. Of course he and the Cardinals can win but Lackey’s league average performances make him too big a risk at this price.
Jimmy Nelson went 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69 innings last year for the Crew. His MLB surface stats weren't pretty, but there are four reasons for optimism: skills growth; refined control is supported by his 65% first-pitch strike rate; swing and miss rate hints more Ks could be on the way; strong groundball percentage. Nelson has developed one of the most dominating curveballs in the game this year, an improvement that has helped him show some intriguing flashes so far in 2015. Nelson has a BB/K split of 14/37 over his last six starts covering 40 innings. His xERA of 3.65 is lower than Lackey’s xERA. Nelson has always done a nice job of racking up strikeouts and limiting home runs and now he's showing signs of improving other areas of his game. He cut down on walks in 2014, and has introduced a new pitch against left-handers in 2015. While the sample is small, the early results are positive. Nelson's future has looked bright for a couple of years now, but he could be fulfilling his promise sooner than anticipated and now he’ll face a scuffling Cardinals offense that has scored just five runs over their past four games and three runs or fewer in five straight.
COLORADO +106 over Los Angeles
The Dodgers were on the verge of getting swept in yesterday’s DH before Alex Guerrero came to bat in the top of the ninth with 2 out and the bases loaded. The Dodgers were down 8-5 and down to their last strike when Guerrero went yard. L.A. won the nightcap 9-8 but that’s not going to deter us from betting against them here with Mike Bolsinger on the hill. Bolsinger is 3-1 with a 1.08 ERA over his last four starts. His recent record has him overvalued, which is something we’re always on the lookout for. Truth be told, Bolsinger is not all that. He’s armed with a cut fastball that is fast in name only, as it tops out at 86.9 MPH. In their efforts to fill the void left by Brandon McCarthy, the Dodgers have been holding auditions for starting rotation gigs over the past few weeks, and for the time being, Bolsinger has a slot based on his five strong starts. However, three of those five starts came at home. The other two came at pitcher-friendly parks in San Fran and St. Louis. This isn’t one of those pitcher friendly parks. Remember, Bolsinger was castoff by the D-Backs because he could barely keep his ERA under 6 at that hitter-friendly venue in Arizona. He’s likely going to get a big reminder of that here. Great sell high opportunity.
Enter Chad Bettis, who is high on our radar as an undervalued pitcher. In 2013, Bettis was one of the games’ most promising righties in the minors. Last year he pitched 21 games in relief for the Rockies and his numbers were pretty ugly. Thing is, Bettis is not a reliever. He thrived as a starter in the minors with a 26-16 record along with an outstanding 3.03 career ERA in the extremely hitting-friendly Pacific Coast League. Bettis brings a solid four-pitch arsenal featuring a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s, up to 98 with late movement, a hard slider with solid depth, and a decent change-up. The fastball-slider combo has always been a devastating weapon for Bettis who locates both with ease, pitching with good control and command. This year he’s made four starts for the Rocks and they’re 4-0 in those starts. In 27 frames, Bettis has allowed just 23 hits while striking out 22 and walking just six. Two of those starts were at Coors Field and another was at Citizens Bank in Philly, all hitter parks. Bettis opened the year in Los Angeles against the Dodgers and they got to him for four runs in five frames but we’re not putting a lot of emphasis on that simply because it was his first start of the year. Bettis is more relaxed and confident out there now and his tremendous surface stats are completely supported by his solid underlying stats, which include a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 51%/17%/32% and his 12% swing and miss rate. In terms of value, this could be the best on today’s board.
Pittsburgh/SAN FRANCISCO over 7 +101
3:45 EST. AT&T Park is known as a pitching friendly venue, which holds true at night with the damp air but in matinée games that damp air is not a factor and one could even argue that it turns more favorable for hitters during the day. Regardless of that, when Tum Hudson is involved in a total this low, we’re going to take a position almost every time. Hudson has 30 K’s in 62 innings. He has a 1.30 WHIP to go along with a 4.62 ERA. His advancing age, his skills decline, his velocity decline and his dominant start/disaster split of 23%/33% are further warning signs that Hudson has one foot in the gutter and is one the way out. The Pirates bats have come alive recently and they have a great chance to put up another crooked number here.
Francisco Liriano is an ace with 75 K’s in 60 innings to go along with an ERA of 3.47. The move to Pittsburgh has been a boon to Liriano, as he has posted two of his best three seasons as a member of the Pirates. However, this year his groundball rate is down 7%. He’s allowed two jacks in one game twice over his last five starts. Current Giants have hit .304 against Liriano. In his two most recent starts at AT&T Park, Liriano was tagged for 13 hits and five runs in 11 innings for an ERA of 4.09. We’re not asking the Giants to go off here. We’re asking them for a very reasonable three runs and the Pirates will very likely take care of the rest. There’s also a chance of both sides putting up some good numbers today and sending this one over the number easily and early.
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HERE's my NHL pick too.
TAMPA BAY +135 over Chicago (SIA)
We cannot overstate enough how impressive the Blackhawks are but you already know that. They are going to be tough as shoe leather to beat and if they win the Cup it would not surprise anyone. It is a grueling path to get here and Chicago didn’t limp into the Stanley Cup finals. No team does. They defeated Nashville, Minnesota and Anaheim and earned every inch of it. Chicago also brings a stronger résumé than the Lightning. In fact, this is the Blackhawks third trip to the finals in the past six seasons and once they got to this point, they could not be beat. The core players from those two Cup winners are still with the team. There’s the dynamic duo of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. There’s Marion Hossa, who will be playing in his fifth Cup Final in the past eight years. There’s Andrew Shaw, one of those invaluable role players that always impacts games and that is needed to win the most heralded prize in sports. Finally, there’s Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Duncan Keith on defense. All the experts can’t talk enough about the remarkable experience that favors the ‘Hawks and we’re not about to dispute that.
Stopping the Blackhawks is as tough as it gets but for Chicago, stopping the Lightning is just as tough and perhaps more so. The Bolts are as an impressive an offense as this league has seen since the days of Gretzky, Kurri and Messier. In addition to having stud Steven Stamkos playing on a line with the always dangerous Alex Killorn and the clever and skilled Valtteri Filppula, the Bolts array of explosive forwards does not stop there. The young ‘Triplets Line’ of Tyler Johnson, Andrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov has accounting for 55 points combined in Tampa’s 20 post-season games played to date. That is the most by any line in the playoffs. The deeper the Bolts went into the playoffs, the better their offense was. Let’s also not ignore that the Lightning scored most of those goals against Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist. They also advanced by winning at three of the toughest buildings in the NHL in Detroit, Montreal and Madison Square in New York. That’s three Original Six teams and now the Bolts will play their fourth Original Six team.
We’re not going to say that the Bolts have an edge on offense but let’s call it a saw off for argument sake. Let’s also call the goaltending a saw off because that’s precisely what it is. That leaves us with a very even series until we get to the defense. Chicago’s core defense of Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and Keith has been covering for a severe lack of depth this entire NHL season and even more so into the playoffs. There’s a good chance it catches up to them here. The same can’t be said for the Bolts. Banged up for much of the year, a healthy defensive corps arrived just in time for the post season. Adding veteran defensemen Anton Stralman, Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn, the Bolts upgraded their backline, affording Victor Hedman to be most effective with his offensive style. Tampa Bay really never allowed the Rangers offense to get going. The Lightning players stood up at the blue-line and never allowed the Rangers (the second highest scoring team during the regular season) to get into any kind of flow whatsoever. Seven deep and playing outstanding hockey throughout the playoffs, defense is where we see the difference. Chicago has allowed three goals or more in 10 of 17 playoff games. TB has allowed three goals or more 7 times in 20 playoff games.
This series is NHL hockey at its best. It’s a shame it’s played in June to less interest that it would have if it were played in early to mid-May but it is what it is. That said, we must stick to playing value and in this case the Bolts have home ice, where they went a league best 32-8-1 during the regular season. Furthermore, Tampa is 7-3 on the road in the playoffs while the Blackhawks are just 5-4. Perhaps Chicago’s popularity has influenced this line or perhaps its experience has as well. However, in this year’s playoffs, the Bolts have gained a ton of experience by winning two game 7’s, which includes one in New York where the Rangers have never lost a game 7 before. We’re all about value and if we’re sticking to that philosophy here, the Lightning has to get our money.
