| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 48 | 0.00 | -7.42 |
| Season to Date | 77 | 93 | 0.00 | -3.77 |
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All play are for 2 units.
Listed pitchers must go
BOSTON -1½ +146 over Minnesota
4:00 PM EST. Steven Wright is 30-years-old and has made just five major-league starts but he’s not the first knuckleballer to get a late start to his career and we like what we see. Wright throws a knuckleball 70% of the time, but will also mix in a four-seam fastball, curveball, and cutter. Of course, knuckleballers generally have erratic control, but Wright has a good feel for his craft and throws consistent strikes. He changes speeds with his knuckler and can reach the low-80s with it. He doesn’t register many strikeouts, but he is tricky to hit and square up on. In fact, Wright’s 9% line-drive rate over his 28 innings this season is proof of how tricky that knuckleball has been. Wright has pitched at least five frames or more in each of his five appearances this season. Three of those came as a starter while the other two came in long relief. He has yet to allow more than six hits or three earned runs in any of his appearances. Spotting 1½-runs with the host is risky but that risk is figured into the line. More importantly, the Red Sox have a good shot of going off against Tom Milone.
Last season, Milone talked his way into a mid-season trade following an undeserved Triple-A demotion, but he couldn't take advantage of the new opportunity. This soft-tossing fly-baller requires excellent control for marginal success and he ain't got it. His control, first-pitch strike rate and xERA trends all look ominous. After shutting out the offensively challenged White Sox to open the year, Milone served up five HRs, nine BBs (against six Ks) and 12 earned runs in his last three MLB starts over 15 innings. That run ended on April 27 and Milone hasn’t pitched since at this level. The Twins called him up from Triple-A for this start after Ricky Nolasco injured his ankle. Milone brings his 87 MPH fastball to the show, not to mention the scrutiny and pressure he’ll be under to perform.
Cleveland +105 over KANSAS CITY
Trevor Bauer will attempt to extend a streak of four consecutive dominant starts. Bauer has been at his best on the road, with all four of his road starts producing solid performances and a 0.99 ERA. Bauer has 65 K’s in 64 frames and while one cannot expect him to maintain this level of performance all season, his upside warrants an investment here.
Last year, Chris Young went 12-9 with a 3.65 ERA over 29 starts for the Mariners. This year, Young is 4-1 overall with an ERA of 1.55. At Kaufman Stadium, Young is 4-0 with an ERA of 0.43. If there was ever a sell-high target, Chris Young would be it. Young’s fastball tops off at 86 MPH. His first pitch strike rate of 57% is below average. His groundball/fly-ball split of 21%/63% is alarming. His 88% strand rate is not only baffling but it’s very lucky and unsustainable. While the odds that he's now a monument of health at 36 are remote, the odds of a repeat 3.65 ERA follow-up are even less likely. Note the 4.94 xERA. Note that his BPV (Base performance Value) of 18 is about 80% below league average. This formula (BPV) combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. We repeat, Young’s BPV is 80% below league average. The only relevant number here is 10, as in "foot pole, do not touch with a".
Chicago +109 over WASHINGTON
Just about every baseball expert on the planet had the Nationals running away with the NL East and going on to win the World Series. That may still happen but until we see some drastic improvements from their offense and bullpen, we’re steering clear of this overvalued squad, especially against a pitcher of Jake Arrieta’s caliber. Arrieta had a bona fide breakout season in 2014 with a 2.53 ERA. He made some changes to his pitch mix in 2014, opting to throw his slider nearly twice as much as he had previously. The results were excellent as he posted career bests across the board. Thus far in 2015, Arrieta has tweaked his pitch mix again, utilizing the sinker 13% more, the four-seam fastball 9% less, and the curve 6% less (slider usage unchanged). In 10 starts covering 65 frames, Arrieta has an outstanding BB/K split of 14/67. He also has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 53%/21%/27%.Arrieta has one of the best pitching profiles in the game and we’re thrilled to get him at a price here.
Gio Gonzalez is also a very good pitcher. We would not put much emphasis on Gonzalez’s weak surface stats because they’re misleading. Right now, Gonzalez is suffering through a run of bad luck, as his skills are as strong as ever. He's inducing a much higher percentage of ground balls as ever before, but as shown by his elevated hit rate, a lot of them are finding holes. At first glance, his groundball rate looks like a number that will regress, given his prior track record, but he's throwing far more sinkers than ever before, so the gains might just stick. He has a strong BB/K split of 21/56 in 59 innings. Thing is, Gonzalez has just five pure quality starts in 10 tries. It can be very frustrating to pitch well and get no run support or deserved victories. Gonzalez is very likely going to throw a decent game here. However, his 1.53 WHIP and weak bullpen behind him suggest the Cubbies will get more scoring opportunities than the Nationals. If this game comes down to the bullpen and/or managerial decisions, we give the Cubbies an ever better chance of winning. If it doesn’t come down to that, one still has to like Chicago’s chances.
