| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 38 | 46 | 0.00 | -2.26 |
| Season to Date | 79 | 94 | 0.00 | -1.57 |
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All plays are for 2 units
Listed pitchers must start.
Chicago +120 over WASHINGTON
No reason to stop attacking the most overvalued team in the majors. The market loves the Nationals and we can understand why with their great starting pitching staff. However, the Nats bullpen has been erratic, the offense has been awful and their defense ranks 8th worst in terms of errors committed. Tanner Roark appears to be Washington's choice to replace Doug Fister in the rotation. Roark was a part of the rotation in 2014 in which he won 15 games with a 2.85 ERA but his skills weren't quite that good. His xERA was nearly a run worse and his K-rate was only league average. So far in 2015, the disparity in results and skills continues. Roark has made 15 appearances this year with 13 of those coming in relief. While he has an ERA of 2.59, his xERA is 4.58. More troubling is his strikeout rate, which is down to 3.1 K’s/9. Overall in 31 frames, Roark has a lousy BB/K split of 8/11. His 88% strand rate combined with that xERA of 4.58 says regression is on the way. As a favorite in this price range, we’ll pass on Roark and the Nationals.
Tsuyoshi Wada has made just three starts. He has yet to make it out of the sixth inning in any of them but the Cubs are bringing him along slowly after a late start to the year. Wada’s pitch count has progressively increased with each start. He has thrown 69, 83 and 96 pitches in his first, second and third starts respectively. Wada comes in with an oppBA of .182 and a nice BB/K split of 6/19 in 16 frames. It’s also worth noting that he was solid in six rehab starts in the Pacific Coast League. In 13 starts last year for the Cubbies, Wada posted a 3.25 ERA with 7.4 K’s/9 with consistent underlying skills. At age 34, Wada isn’t going to dominate or blow people away. However, he’s a competent major league pitcher on a hungry team that has proven to be reliable and consistent. That’s good enough for us.
Milwaukee +125 over MINNESOTA
We faded the Twins with Tommy Milone pitching yesterday but ripped up our ticket after Boston blew a 4-0 lead. That’s not going to stop us from attacking them some more. Minnesota’s 32-21 is all smoke and mirrors. They have improved from last year but no way have they improved this dramatically. Kyle Gibson’s 4-3 record in 10 starts with an ERA of 2.61 can’t last either. Gibson has 30 K’s in 62 innings. In his last start, he walked four batters and struck out three. His WHIP of 1.29 is a fraction lower than our 1.30 threshold of pitchers in trouble. Over his last five starts, Gibson’s strand rate of 91% tells the story of a pitcher whose results have been fueled by luck. It's clear that you should use Gibson’s 4.64 xERA as your guide for whether or not to invest in him. If you've been riding his hot streak thus far, pocket the money and say thank-you very much. If you continue to ride it, prepare yourself for a crash landing.
Kyle Lohse has had a rough go of it so far, with a 6.50 ERA across his first 11 starts. So what's the problem? Actually, there isn’t one. If anything, Lohse's skills are a bit stronger than usual, so now would be the time to buy low. Lohse is sitting on the highest strikeout rate of his career and his swinging strike rate matches his career best mark. With a BB/K split of 15/51 in 62 innings, it's doubtful he can keep it at that level all season, but there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with his stuff. Lohse is allowing just a few more base runners than usual, but far too many of them are coming around to score. His extremely low strand rate of 56% is due for a major correction, which should help his ERA immensely. Lohse has made a habit of posting an ERA well below his xERA, but so far this year, the tables have turned on him. His surface numbers are quite ugly right now, but his skills are pretty much in line with those he's displayed in the past. We can almost guarantee that Gibson’s ERA will regress significantly while Lohse’s will improve significantly over the next couple of months. We’ll put both to the test here.
TORONTO -1½ +155 over Houston
The Astros have struck out an incredible 507 times. That’s 100 more strikeouts than the Blue Jays and 200 more than the Royals. Houston’s team batting average of .236 is second last in the majors, ahead of only the Brewers. That should bode well for Aaron Sanchez and his filthy stuff. Sanchez’s only problem is control but these Astros have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Sanchez has walked 37 batters in 58 innings but has only allowed 52 hits for an oppBA of .245. At home, Sanchez has allowed just 22 hits in 31.2 innings for an oppBA of .204. His 58%/20%/22% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split is one of the better batted ball profiles in the entire league. Regardless of the pitch he uses, Sanchez induces weak contact. Aaron Sanchez is a tweak away from becoming a truly dominant starter and based on his skills, one has to like his chances of dominating this lineup.
The Astros have won five of Roberto Hernandez’s last seven starts. That has this stiff very overvalued. The only reason the Astronauts won those games is because they scored 14, 7, 6, 6 and 10 runs respectively. Hernandez has been tagged for 17 hits and 12 runs over his last two starts covering 10.2 frames. When he faced Toronto back on May 14 in Houston, he did not strike out a single batter and was taken deep twice. Over his last five starts, Hernandez has a BB/K split of 9/13 over 31 innings. Hernandez, a 10-year veteran, has become a prototypical innings eater. His only value is when he’s a significant dog against a weaker pitcher than he is. His 4½% swing and miss rate over his last four starts is further proof that he’s not missing many bats. The Rogers Center is not a place you want to put balls in play at but it’s something that is unavoidable for Hernandez (a.k.a Fausto Carmona). Those Fausto’s days are long gone and so are most of his skills.
