| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 44 | 0.00 | +9.46 |
| Season to Date | 84 | 97 | 0.00 | +6.31 |
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All plays are 2 units with exception of the total, which is to win 2 units
Listed pitchers must go
Miami +160 over TORONTO
Indeed the Blue Jays are hot with five wins in a row but Marco Estrada cannot be priced in this range against any Marlins starter, including Brad Hand. In six starts since moving to the rotation, Estrada and the Blue Jays have lost five of them. He’s also been taken yard five times in 30 innings since joining the rotation. That should come as no surprise either, as Estrada allowed a league leading 29 jacks last season over a modest 150 innings. That’s what happens when an extreme fly-ball pitcher has hr/f misfortune. Estrada really doesn’t thrive in any department. His first-pitch strike rate is just 56%. His fastball velocity is 89.1 mph. He has an xERA of 4.58. Estrada's gopheritis is well-documented, and it’s been more of the same so far. Estrada's status has fallen into a slumber in recent years, and the move to Toronto’s rotation may end up hurting him, as AL East ballparks are no place for a fly-ball pitcher to thrive. In other words, you may win this game if you bet Toronto but you’re taking a huge risk in spotting this price.
Brad Hand is a pitcher to keep an eye on and certainly worth the gamble when taking back a price like this. Hand is just 25-years-old. He’s had opportunities before to stick in the rotation but has not delivered yet. This is a guy that dominated both the minors and spring training in the past. He was a top-10 prospect in the Miami system earlier this decade due to his fantastic curveball. Poor control in the minors and during a few auditions with Miami has halted his development but he’s getting better. Hand can change speeds with the best of them. He can alter his speeds between 79 mph and 93 mph and he’ll do it often. He has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground in the minors and he’s finally starting to come around at this level. Hand has appeared in 16 games this year. The first 14 games were in relief before he moved into the rotation. Over 34 frames, he has not allowed a HR yet. In his two starts against the Pirates and Cubs, he allowed just two runs and 10 hits over 11 innings. Over the past month, Hand has seen his ERA go from 6.11 to its present mark of 4.24 over 17.1 innings. When talking about a small sample size like we are here, less weight has to be applied to good numbers and vice versa but at least Hand has upside and he has more confidence at this level than ever before. The price is right to step in with Hand and against Estrada.
Philadelphia +102 over CINCINNATI
Everybody knows who Cole Hamels is so there is no reason to get into any in-depth analysis of what he can do but let us say this – Cole goes out there and dominates almost every lineup he faces. Psychologically speaking, Hamels has a big edge before he even throws a pitch because he has made these Reds’ hitters look foolish in the past. Cinci players will go up to date praying they’ll get a hit as opposed to thinking they’ll get one. Hamels has been amazingly consistent throughout his career and hasn’t lost a thing this season. His dominant start/disaster start split has been outstanding over the past three years and compares to Clayton Kershaw’s split. Hamels skills column is a thing of beauty and he’s most certainly worth backing at this price, against Mike Leake.
Mike Leake was outstanding in his last start, shutting down these same Phillies in which he struck out nine over eight frames and allowed just two runs. However, for Leake, that outing was an exception rather than the norm for him recently. Prior to that outing, Leake had been torched to the tune of 27 hits and 20 earned runs over his last 14 innings covering three starts. That’s not just a run of three games either. In five home starts this season, Leake has been horrendous, going 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 28.2 innings. We trust we’re going with the best of it here.
COLORADO +131 over St. Louis
The Rockies have actually been very tough to beat on a consistent basis. They lost 3-2 yesterday to the Marlins but it’s been 15 games since they lost two straight and now they catch the Cardinals in what is potentially a letdown spot. St. Louis is coming off a weekend series (4 games) in Los Angeles against the Dodgers before a packed house every game. The Cardinals took three of four, including yesterday’s finale, where they rallied with three in the eighth to win it. The odd-man out in that series was John Lackey. Unfortunately for Lackey, his turn in the rotation falls on this day. Lackey is winless in five road starts this season, where he has a 4.66 ERA and only one quality start. Like most pitchers, his visits to Coors Field have not been kind to him, allowing nine earned runs in 12.2 innings across two starts. We’re not buying Lackey’s 2.93 actual ERA either, as he’s been the recipient of fortunate hit, hr/f and strand rate percentages. The Rockies offense is once again really strong at home, where they own a .298 BA and .804 OPS.
Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, David Hale was a very consistent minor league pitcher. He’s had enough experience at this level too, as he’s appeared in 49 games over three seasons for both Atlanta and Colorado. 10 of those 49 appearances were as a starter, including two this season. Hale comes at hitters with a three-pitch arsenal featuring a low-90s fastball, plus slider, and improved change-up. His delivery is clean and easy, allowing him to show good arm strength and easy velocity. Hale is not a big strikeout pitcher but he mixes his pitches well and keeps them down allowing him to get plus groundball rates and keep the ball in the park. Hale has seen his control, command and xERA trend in the right direction. Over 13 innings covering his two starts, Hale has not issued a single walk. He also has a very solid groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 47%/16%/37%. His 12% swing and miss rate and 69% first-pitch strike rate are both well above league average, giving full support to his pin-point control. The Cardinals have not seen much of Hale (2 hits in 10 combined AB’s), which figures to also work in his advantage. Great value here.
MINNESOTA/Kansas City over 8½ -105
Jason Vargas is 32-years-old and pretty much worthless. Indulge yourself in an eye test over his last five years and what you’ll see is a narrow range of mediocrity that is getting worse. Over 36 frames this season, Vargas has a BB/K split of 11/23 and a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 38%/25%/38%. Vargas was knocked around by the Twins in his visit to Target Field back on April 16. He will return to the same venue today, where the Twins have displayed a grinding offense, averaging 5.3 runs per game at home. Vargas has lasted only 18 innings in four road starts this season, where he owns a 5.00 ERA (5.13 xERA) and 1.67 WHIP.
Phil Hughes is a pitcher in serious trouble. Hughes' first-pitch strike rate continues to soar towards elite levels but so what. The dude throws strikes. The fall in his K-rate has hurt his overall production, and similar dips in fastball velocity and swinging-strike rate suggest we might not see a rebound. Drops in velocity and swinging strikes cap Hughes' strikeout potential, and his line-drive/fly-ball combo makes Hughes more prone to giving up extra base hits and home runs. This is a guy with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/26%/41%. In his last start against Boston, Hughes generated just one swinging strike. That was over 77 pitches. Kirk Douglas could match that. In 69 frames, Hughes has allowed 86 hits with 12 of those leaving the yard. He comes in with an oppBA of .302, a WHIP of 1.35 and an ERA of 4.96. There are no signs whatsoever of Hughes returning to last year’s form. All of Hughes’ skills are badly trending in the wrong direction, making him nothing more than batting practice out there. Expect to see some crooked numbers unless luck plays a big factor.
