[h=1]Best college football win total bets[/h]
Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the start of June here, all the major college football magazines are out at the book stores (Sporting News, Lindy's, Athlon) or on their way there (ESPN, Phil Steele's College Football Preview). Five years ago, towards the end of the month, there used to be a casino or two in Las Vegas that put up over/under win totals for the season for 20 or 25 of the top teams in college football. Things have changed, though, as offshore sportsbook 5Dimes put up win totals on all 128 college football teams on May 26.
The fine folks at ESPN Insider have asked me to look over these numbers and come up with some value plays for 2015. I do think by doing the article right nowbefore my magazine becomes public, the audience here may be able to exploit some numbers before the lines are adjusted.
One note on these lines for those of you who are not familiar with money line wagering and how it works. The standard odds in Las Vegas when wagering on a game are minus-110 (this means you put up $110 to win $100). College football over/under win totals have a much greater money line to deal with. As an example, this season Kansas has an over/under total of 1.5 wins (over minus-260) for the season, meaning just two wins cashes an over winning ticket. To play the over you have to put down $260, and if the Jayhawks get to two wins or more you win the grand total of $100 (plus your $260 principal back).
You can order my magazine right now on philsteele.com, and while this article is up on ESPN Insider, I will tweet out a couple of teams that just missed the cut onTwitter.
Here are my early 2015 value plays:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
San Diego State Aztecs OVER 7.5 wins (minus-120): I have San Diego State listed at No. 38 in my top 40 teams right now. If you read Phil's Forecast, I gave them a shot at their first double-digit win season since 1971. While that does include the MWC title game and the bowl, they would still have to be over 7.5 in the regular season to get there. They look like the best team in the Mountain West and avoid Boise State. I have them favored in nine regular-season games and pick-'em in another.
Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes OVER 5.5 wins (minus-170):Miami has topped that total in seven straight seasons. This is Al Golden's fifth season at the helm, and he has a veteran QB in Brad Kaaya, who played well as a true frosh (and wasn't even in for the spring last year). Over six wins at a cheaper money line (like minus-110 or minus-120) would be a solid play as well and probably preferred. I have a sneaking suspicion that this one could jump to seven or 7.5 wins in a couple weeks. Get it now.
Buffalo Bulls UNDER 5.5 wins (minus-155): You're probably surprised to see Buffalo here for a couple of reasons. First, they are a MAC team. Second, had their home game against Kent St. last season not been cancelled (and they were favored to win) they would have had six wins. Lastly, they return their four-year starting QB, 1,400-yard RB and nine of their top 10 receivers. I look beyond the obvious and see just two starters back on the offensive line and four overall on defense, plus a new head coach. They played two FCS foes last season and I have them favored in only one game and pick-'em in three others. To top 5.5 wins they must be bowl-eligible, and I have four or five other teams in the East division getting to bowls.
Penn State Nittany Lions OVER 7.5 wins (minus-160):Last season, Penn State had a poor offensive line and was in the first season of the James Franklin era with just 12 returning starters. This season, the Nittany Lions have 15 returning starters and I think Christian Hackenberg will look like the probable high first-round pick he should be in the 2016 NFL draft. I believe Penn State has a chance to be favored in as many as nine or 10 games this season. Last season was probably the one most affected by the sanctions, so this will be a much better team in Franklin's second season.
USC Trojans OVER 8.5 wins (minus-150): With 8.5 wins for the total, USC can afford to lose three games and still go over the total. I don't want to give too much away but my projected AP top 10 right now has USC at No. 7, which means I expect double-digit wins from the Trojans. QB Cody Kessler has a great supporting cast, including a veteran, top-notch offensive line. They have the best depth they have had since the sanctions hit and that should mean less wilting in the fourth quarter, which cost them some wins last season. I think USC is one of the top teams in the country and 8.5 wins supplies us with a lot of value.
Colorado State Rams UNDER 7.5 wins (minus-120): I think Jim McElwain did a great job building up this Colorado State team and he didn't leave them in bad shape, as they return 15 starters from a 10-win team in 2014 and also the third-highest percentage of lettermen returning. I am still picking the under here. Usually in a coaching change, the first season has a learning curve with the new coaches having to learn the players' strengths and weaknesses and the players having to learn new schemes. The Rams lost QB Garrett Grayson and LT Ty Sambrailo to the NFL, as well as RB Dee Hart (1,275 yards on 6.6 yards per carry in 2014). Prior to last season's 10-win total, the Rams hadn't topped 7.5 wins in the regular season since 2002, and they have a tough schedule with Minnesota, a much improved Colorado, Boise State, Utah State and San Diego State all on it. They also face a road game at Fresno State and have their rivalry game versus Wyoming.
LSU Tigers OVER 8 wins (minus-125): So the LSU program is sliding back to the pack after going 13-0 to open up 2011. The Tigers lost the national title game to Alabama in 2011, then went just 10-3 each of the next two seasons, and crashed down to 8-5 last season. Interestingly, in the past 14 seasons, they have won fewer than eight games in a season just once, so you have to feel pretty comfortable here with a tie (eight wins) counting as a push. Last season LSU was replacing a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher, and had just 12 returning starters. This season they have 15 returning starters and all their top skill players. They lost 18 players to the NFL draft in 2013 and 2014 combined, including a ton of underclassmen, but this year had just four players drafted (only one in the first two rounds) and only one underclassman left early. I think LSU is very capable of double-digit wins this season like the Tigers had four of the previous five seasons. Get them now while the total is just eight.
Bowling Green Falcons OVER 5 wins (minus-180): This is another one where I would be very comfortable playing Bowling Green over 5.5 at a much cheaper price (like minus-120), so see if that is an option. The Falcons won 10 games in 2013 and last season they went through a drastic switch going from a defensive-based team to the fast-paced, no-huddle attack. They then lost their very talented returning starter at QB in Week 1. They still managed to wrap up the MAC East title and then rested some players for the MAC title game, but after starting 7-3, the Falcons dropped those two games at the end. Bowling Green gets QB Matt Johnson back and has my No. 1-rated offensive line and No. 1 set of receivers in the MAC among 10 starters on that side of the ball. The defense should be improved in the second year of head coach Dino Babers. 5.5 wins? That number is really cheap.
Colorado Buffaloes OVER 4.5 wins (minus-140): This is a sneaky one with a lot of hidden value. I think Mike MacIntyre is one of the most underrated coaches out there. He somehow coaxed a below-average team to four wins his first season and fell back to just two wins last season. Now, I believe he can more than double that total. Usually, head coaches have a big third year when the majority of the roster is made up of their own recruits and their systems are fully integrated. In MacIntyre's third season at San Jose State, he took a previously woebegone team and tied a school record with 11 wins -- and they were ranked for the first time since 1975. No, Colorado will not win 11 games in MacIntyre's third season, but it is one of the most improved teams in the country and could open the season 4-0. Last season they had four losses by five points or fewer, which means they were basically four plays from being bowl-eligible. The kicker is they play a 13-game schedule, giving you an extra opportunity to top that 4.5 total.
These are my nine top value plays as of today, and I expect many of them to have much different odds by the time July rolls around. We'll re-assess again before the season rolls around.
Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the start of June here, all the major college football magazines are out at the book stores (Sporting News, Lindy's, Athlon) or on their way there (ESPN, Phil Steele's College Football Preview). Five years ago, towards the end of the month, there used to be a casino or two in Las Vegas that put up over/under win totals for the season for 20 or 25 of the top teams in college football. Things have changed, though, as offshore sportsbook 5Dimes put up win totals on all 128 college football teams on May 26.
The fine folks at ESPN Insider have asked me to look over these numbers and come up with some value plays for 2015. I do think by doing the article right nowbefore my magazine becomes public, the audience here may be able to exploit some numbers before the lines are adjusted.
One note on these lines for those of you who are not familiar with money line wagering and how it works. The standard odds in Las Vegas when wagering on a game are minus-110 (this means you put up $110 to win $100). College football over/under win totals have a much greater money line to deal with. As an example, this season Kansas has an over/under total of 1.5 wins (over minus-260) for the season, meaning just two wins cashes an over winning ticket. To play the over you have to put down $260, and if the Jayhawks get to two wins or more you win the grand total of $100 (plus your $260 principal back).
You can order my magazine right now on philsteele.com, and while this article is up on ESPN Insider, I will tweet out a couple of teams that just missed the cut onTwitter.
Here are my early 2015 value plays:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
These are my nine top value plays as of today, and I expect many of them to have much different odds by the time July rolls around. We'll re-assess again before the season rolls around.
