4 Wednesday w/analysis

All plays are for 2 units with exception of Twins, who are 2.02 units to win 2.
Listed pitchers must go

Houston +110 over CHICAGO
Last night we bet against the Astros and Dallas Keuchel, noting that Keuchel just dominated the White Sox 10 days ago. Well the same can be applied to Jose Quintana, the opposing pitcher on that day. Quintana took the loss against the Astros but left the game in the seventh inning down just 1-0. He struck out 7 Astros and allowed just five hits and now must face them again. Rarely are we in favor of backing a pitcher that just threw a gem against the same team he’ll be facing a short time later. We like Quintana and the Astros are average at best against southpaws. Quintana has a nice 3.45 xERA over his last five starts and has notched big strikeout numbers against the Astros while holding current Houston batters to a .636 OPS in past meetings. However, Quintana is having a pretty rough go of it at home with a BAA of .292 to go along with a 4.22 ERA. Last night, the Astros hit a lot of balls hard but right at people. We also love the energy, talent and spark that newcomer SS Carlos Correa brings with him. He’s a young phenom that deserves all the hype because he really is that good and doesn’t look a bit out of place. The Astros are better with Correa in the lineup. More importantly, however, is value. Chicago was taking back a pretty tag last night and had they been favored, we would not have bet them. As the chalk, the South Side is a completely unworthy outfit with anyone not named Chris Sale on the hill.

As the struggling Roberto Hernandez gets moved to the bullpen, the Astros reached down to Double-A yet again and called up Vincent Velasquez. The 23-year-old was Houston's preseason #3 prospect. Health has been the bugaboo for Velasquez going back to high school. He had a stress fracture and ligament strain in his right elbow in 2009 and didn't pitch his junior season. After he was drafted in 2010 and lured away from Cal State Fullerton for $655,830, he injured the ligament again and missed the 2011 season after having Tommy John surgery. He missed two months in 2014 with a groin injury. Velasquez's inability to stay on the mound has been frustrating. He might have the highest ceiling of Houston's pitching prospects thanks to an explosive fastball that plays beyond its 92-95 mph velocity (he tops out at 96 with late tailing life) and a plus changeup. His curveball is an average pitch that needs tightening, but the Astros believe he could get it to solid-average, and he throws it with requisite power. Velasquez has a loose arm and athletic body to go with an aggressive approach. His delivery features some crossfire action. Velasquez got needed extra work in the Arizona Fall League. The 6'3", 205-pound right-hander has an easy delivery with decent control, and he routinely gets double-digit strikeouts. In five seasons in the minors his ERA was 3.26 with a 1.12 WHIP in 289.2 innings. This year at Corpus Christi, he was 3-0 with a 1.37 over 26.1 innings to go along with an oppBA of .165. He also struck out 38 batters in those 26 innings. As a pooch, we’re more than willing to back this youngster and/or fade the South Side.

Texas +135 over OAKLAND
In the span of less than a year, Jesse Hahn went from Double-A to surprise fill-in starter for San Diego to the top of Oakland’s pitching staff behind the aforementioned Gray. In 11 starts, Hahn is 3-5 with an ERA/xERA split of 3.51/3.53. That’s not bad at all. As always, pairing a strong K-rate with a groundball approach projects as a successful combination. Hahn's arsenal offers both. On the downside, Hahn’s 116 total innings in '14 were the most of his career, and fatigue relegated him to the bullpen over the season's final few weeks. Furthermore, given his small MLB sample, it's harder to say whether the stuff that induced an 11% swing and miss rate will continue to fool hitters his second and third times around the league. So far it hasn’t, as Hahn has just 47 K’s in 65 innings and a lower 8% swing and miss rate. Hahn's upside outweighs the risks, but we wouldn't count on him as anything more than a back-end rotation filler until he becomes a more proven commodity.

Yovanni Gallardo’s numbers are very similar to Hahn’s numbers. Gallardo has an ERA/xERA split of 3.54/3.95 but it should be noted that Gallardo pitches half his games at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball while Hahn pitches half his at one of the more pitching-friendly venues in the league. Gallardo is 3-1 over his last five starts with a 2.70 ERA. His groundball rate of 56% is the highest of his career. As someone who won 60 games between 2009-2012, Gallardo was a consistent source of payouts over that span and he’s paying off once again this year. Then there’s this: The Rangers beat Sonny Gray last night. Texas is now four games above .500 and it has a better record than Detroit, Toronto, Washington and Tampa Bay among others. The Rangers road record is 20-12. No team in the majors has more road victories, yet the market does not believe in this team, as they continue to be priced in the same range as some of the bottom feeders almost daily. Whether they win here or not is not up for debate because all the value is on this underpriced visitor again.

Seattle +140 over CLEVELAND
The Indians are in regression mode lately and we’re thrilled to be taking back a price like this against them here. Cleveland has faced a slew of weak starters lately with Guthrie, Vargas, Chris Young, Tillman, Bud Norris, Elias and J.A. Happ among them. The Tribe have scored two runs or less in five of their past seven games and three runs or less in six of seven. They sent out Cory Kluber last night in the opener of this series and lost again. Cleveland is now making some moves (3B Lonnie Chisenhall and SS Jose Ramirez were sent down) to try and improve its porous defense and weakening offense. Cleveland has now dropped four of its last six games. Trevor Bauer is 5-2 in 11 starts with an ERA of 2.94. That’s impressive and warrants an investment when he’s being offered a price but as the chalk in this range and pitching for a struggling club, Bauer and the Indians warrant a fade. Bauer still isn't able to throw strikes at a consistent clip (57% strike% vs. MLB average of 64%). He has been helped a lot by an unsustainable 86% strand rate and 0.8% hr/f rate. What’s so amazing about that low hr/f rate is that Bauer is a fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/45% and 34%/49% over his last five starts. In his last start, Bauer walked another four batters in seven frames. Bauer’s game is attempting to strike out every batter he faces. Despite the talent, he still has plenty to learn and his erratic control and fly-ball ways strongly suggests there's a blowup or two on the way. Hopefully this is that day but even if it’s not, we still like the price and our chances with Taijuan Walker going for the M’s.

Walker is coming off a pretty sweet performance against the Yankees at the Stadium. A pair of homers threw some shade on Walker's line for this game, but it was still a strong eight-inning, five hit, two-run effort from him. Walker has now thrown consecutive eight-inning outings. Over that span covering 16 full frames, Walker has walked one, struck out 15 and allowed just seven hits. Walker is a former prized prospect that was derailed by a balky shoulder last season. When he did pitch he was outstanding with a 2.81 ERA over 39 innings and averaging 8.1 K’s/9. He brings 95 mph heat with tail. The reason to invest in Walker is not due to his meaningless 0.67 spring ERA but because he obviously has the stuff and now it’s just a matter of staying healthy and believing in it. He’s well on his way.

MINNESOTA -101 over Kansas City
Edinson Volquez has put up a 3.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP after 11 starts, but it's been a mirage. His base skills have been marginal at best and we’re beginning to see the same mediocre results that Volquez has posted his entire career. Over his last two starts, Volquez has thrown 100 and 109 pitches in 5.1 and 5.2 innings respectively. What that tells us is there were a ton of foul balls and high pitch counts to almost every hitter. Volquez’s control is also marginal with 24 walks already in 66 innings. We’re quite aware that the Twins are struggling at the plate but Volquez is winless on the road this season with an ERA/xERA split of 4.13/4.54.

Kyle Gibson should not be a pooch at home to Volquez. In two of his last three starts covering 15 innings, Gibson has 17 K’s without walking a single batter. In his last start against Milwaukee, he gave up five hits and five runs in the first three innings but allowed just one hit the rest of the way in seven full innings. Gibson is coming on big time. He has walked six batters and struck out 28 over his last 33 innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 55%/16%/29% is one of the best batted ball profiles in the league and for the first time in his career, he’s inducing plenty of swinging strikes (11%). His swinging strike rate last game was an incredible 18%. Something has clicked for Gibson and we strongly suggest you buy low on him now because the window to do so won’t be open much longer. Wrong side favored.
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NOTE: Internet problems yesterday was the only reason I didn't post here. For the record, I had CWS +135 and Pitt -1½ +126 for a 1-1 day.

Agree on my W Sox with Q on the bump he usually follows a nice outing with a poor one and the Sox do poorly when facing a pltcher the ,1st time added to the logic is the Sox don't sweep many series .GL

palehose1 said:

Agree on my W Sox with Q on the bump he usually follows a nice outing with a poor one and the Sox do poorly when facing a pltcher the ,1st time added to the logic is the Sox don't sweep many series .GL

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Thanks Pale. Always like to hear from locals because they usually have a pretty good read on the team they follow. Good stuff. Thanks and GL to you too.