4 Thursday w/analysis

All plays are for 2 units
Listed pitchers must go

MIAMI -1½ +151 over Colorado
The Marlins were just swept in Toronto after facing starters Scott Copeland, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle. Against those three (and the Jays pen) in a pitcher’s park, they scored seven runs and were outscored overall in the series, 22-7. Now the Fish are a pretty hefty price with David Phelps on the hill. Phelps was moved to the rotation when Henderson Alvarez hit the disabled list in mid-April. He responded with a 1.75 ERA across his first six starts. Four starts later and Phelps’ ERA is now 4.68. Phelps’ K-rate currently sits at a career low and the swings and misses are few and far between at 5%. Phelps hasn’t won a game since May 9 and Miami has lost each of those games in which he started. That’s five straight losses for Miami when Phelps starts and six losses in his last seven starts. Phelps comes in with a 1.58 WHIP over those last six starts to go along with a 30% line-drive rate. Davis Phelps is not fooling anyone, the Marlins are playing like crap and so now the question begs as to why they are such a big price over the Rockies and Chris Rusin? To us, wagering on Colorado appears to be a huge sucker play, considering Rusin has an ERA of 1.45 over three starts so we’re going the other way.

First off, Rusin is a lefty and Miami has a pretty sweet .274 BA against southpaws. Rusin has allowed just 15 hits and three earned runs over 19.2 innings, covering three starts but this line and his past says it’s all about to come crashing down. In 21 starts over the past four years for the Cubs and now Colorado, Rusin fashioned a 4.46 ERA with 4.9K’s/9. Prior to his May 26 call-up, Rusin had allowed 58 baserunners in his 34 innings and put up a 6.29 ERA at AAA-Albuquerque. Rusin continues riding the shuttle between the majors and the minors. With unimpressive rotation trials in numerous attempts over the past four seasons and unimpressive minor-league numbers as well, the line suggests a serious implosion is on the way. This is very likely that day.

San Francisco +108 over N.Y. METS
Tim Lincecum is putting up some decent numbers but there are some warning signs that include far too many walks issued, which is reflected in his below average 1.32 WHIP. Lincecum’s average fastball tops off at just 87.9 mph now but for this one game, we couldn’t care less. You see, the Mets are an extremely banged up team that has just two wins in their last eight games and that’s with Jacob Degrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey all starting twice each. Aside from that, the Giants are seeing beach balls at the dish, as they continue to put up sick numbers up and down their batting lineup. After facing Syndergaard and Harvey in the first two games of this series and putting up 13 runs, San Fran now gets its easiest assignment of the series in facing Jonathan Niese.

Niese is 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA and a 4.02 xERA. His fastball fell from 90-91 mph in 2011-13, to 88.5 mph in 2014 and it remains at 88.5 mph this year. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Niese has been tagged for 37 hits and 23 earned runs. The Mets lost all five of those games by scores of 6-5, 10-2, 9-1, 9-5 and 7-2. Remember, Niese is a guy that has spent time on the disabled list in five of the last six seasons, including two separate stints (elbow and shoulder) in 2014. He’s barely able to make it to the fifth inning these days. Based on his most recent results, one can safely assume that he’s not completely over the shoulder, elbow and neck problems (the neck issues started last year causing him to alter his delivery) that he’s had to endure. San Fran likely gets to him too.

Texas +156 over OAKLAND
3:35 PM EST. The Rangers were taking back a nice price last night and things looked pretty rosy for them after 7 innings. However, a horrible throw by right-fielder Shin-soo Choo with one on caused a runner from first to score on a single to make 4-3 and the batter went to third on that lousy single. The A’s tied it and won it in the ninth but that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on the Rangers here. As mentioned yesterday, Texas is being priced in the same range as some of the league bottom feeders and until the market makes an adjustment, we’ll continue to back them at prices like this. This is a team with the best road record in the majors and it’s not a fluke. Scott Kazmir hasn’t won a game since May 1. That’s six straight that the A’s have lost when he’s started. Overall, Kazmir has two wins in 11 games and while he absolutely deserves a better fate, winning a game becomes more difficult with each passing start. He’s not getting run support, his WHIP is high at 1.30 and he has a BB/K split of 7/12 over his last three starts covering 13.1 frames. Current A’s have faced Kazmir a combined 224 times (with 58 hits and 8 jacks) so there is nothing he’s going to throw at them they haven’t seen before.

Meanwhile, the A’s have never seen Chi-Chi Gonzalez. In two starts since being called up against Kansas City and Boston, Gonzalez has not allowed a run. He’s thrown 14.2 innings and has allowed just 5 hits for a BAA of .106. It is a very small sample size but one has to start somewhere and it should be noted that the start against Boston came in Arlington. Gonzalez commands his plus fastball to both sides of the plate, operating at 92-95 mph and touching 97. Gonzalez can cut and sink his fastball, giving it above-average movement and helping him get an abundance of grounders. He has another weapon in his plus slider, a sharp mid-80s offering that he adds and subtracts from depending on the situation. One of the focal points for Gonzalez this year was to improve his changeup, a pitch that flashes good action and sink. He also started to use a solid curveball to get early-count called strikes, giving him a four-pitch mix to attack hitters. Gonzalez has all the attributes to be solid rotation starter and while we can’t expect him to maintain his current pace, the fact that the A’s have yet to face him works greatly in our favor. Rangers remain grossly undervalued..

Seattle +100 over CLEVELAND
12:10 PM EST. The Mariners took the opener last night in easy fashion and it would surprise us not if they cruised again here. Cleveland is reeling with five losses in their past seven games. They have been outscored 19-8 over their past three games and now the bullpen is overworked too. Shaun Marcum has been terrible at home this season, with a 7.07 ERA in his two starts at Progressive Field. Marcum’s 34%/44% groundball/fly-ball split does not bode well at this park. His fastball tops off at 85.5 mph and his first pitch strike rate at home of 47% suggests he’s very reluctant to come at hitters for fear of giving up the long ball. Marcum has surrendered seven jacks already in just 26 innings.

J.A. Happ has a BB/K split of 14/49 in 65 innings. He has just one loss in 11 starts this season, which strongly suggests he’s giving his team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. His control gains are backed by an above-average first-pitch strike rate, which suggests he could sustain this level moving forward. Happ comes into this start with a 3.31 ERA and it’s the fourth straight year of ERA and xERA improvement. By no means are we suggesting that Happ is among the elite but he knows how to pitch and he’s certainly superior to Marcum

On seattle and texas myself

gl

We did great. Scored 0 runs in two games combined. #GoingBad