hey guys, first time poster, ive been lurking for a little while here, it seems like this forum has much more more sophisticated discussion going on compared to the other gambling forums ive visited, so ill be calling Rx home from here on out, hope to have some intelligent discussion with all of you.
In a nutshell heres my plan: bet 2-teamers, to win 10% of my bankroll. while increasing bet sizing after losses to maintain +10% growth for each 2-teamer i hit.
so for example, if my first parlay was +400, i would bet 2.5% of my roll to to win 10%. if it wins, that “step” is complete, and i start a new step to win 10% of my newly increased bankroll.
now if that parlay loses, i would then begin to slowly increase my bet size to recoup my original loss plus the 10% goal. so, using the +400 odds example, my next bet would be 3.125% of the STARTING roll. (to win 12.5%, 10% + the 2.5% lost on the first parlay). i would then continue so on and so forth as necessary until i hit a 2 teamer, then start over again to win another 10%
So, the danger here, and with chase systems in general, is that a long enough losing streak will cause the bet sizes to increase exponentially to the point of bankruptcy. Statistically speaking, what i am doing here is akin to playing with fire, as GIVEN A LARGE ENOUGH SAMPLE SIZE, I WILL EVENTUALLY EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED LOSING STREAK THAT WILL WIPE OUT EVERYTHING. what im hoping however, is that i can string enough wins together to earn a nice little profit, then have the willpower to withdraw before the inevitable cooler occurs.
now the key here is the odds im getting on my parlays. at short odds, say +200 per parlay, i can only sustain 6 losses in a row before everything is gone. at +300, that number increases to 8. at +500, i can survive quite a long losing streak, 13 in a row to be exact.
As for the individual picks themselves, they will follow no system or specific strategy, they will just be selections that i believe to be +EV based on my personal analysis.
The beauty of this here is the concept of compounding interest. 10 sucessful steps will increase my roll by 159%. 20 steps, 572%. if i can manage 50 steps, my bankroll will have increased 116 TIMES the original amount. the key of course, will be whether i have the willpower to walk away with the profits.
In a nutshell heres my plan: bet 2-teamers, to win 10% of my bankroll. while increasing bet sizing after losses to maintain +10% growth for each 2-teamer i hit.
so for example, if my first parlay was +400, i would bet 2.5% of my roll to to win 10%. if it wins, that “step” is complete, and i start a new step to win 10% of my newly increased bankroll.
now if that parlay loses, i would then begin to slowly increase my bet size to recoup my original loss plus the 10% goal. so, using the +400 odds example, my next bet would be 3.125% of the STARTING roll. (to win 12.5%, 10% + the 2.5% lost on the first parlay). i would then continue so on and so forth as necessary until i hit a 2 teamer, then start over again to win another 10%
So, the danger here, and with chase systems in general, is that a long enough losing streak will cause the bet sizes to increase exponentially to the point of bankruptcy. Statistically speaking, what i am doing here is akin to playing with fire, as GIVEN A LARGE ENOUGH SAMPLE SIZE, I WILL EVENTUALLY EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED LOSING STREAK THAT WILL WIPE OUT EVERYTHING. what im hoping however, is that i can string enough wins together to earn a nice little profit, then have the willpower to withdraw before the inevitable cooler occurs.
now the key here is the odds im getting on my parlays. at short odds, say +200 per parlay, i can only sustain 6 losses in a row before everything is gone. at +300, that number increases to 8. at +500, i can survive quite a long losing streak, 13 in a row to be exact.
As for the individual picks themselves, they will follow no system or specific strategy, they will just be selections that i believe to be +EV based on my personal analysis.
The beauty of this here is the concept of compounding interest. 10 sucessful steps will increase my roll by 159%. 20 steps, 572%. if i can manage 50 steps, my bankroll will have increased 116 TIMES the original amount. the key of course, will be whether i have the willpower to walk away with the profits.
