Fantasy Football News 2015/16

[h=1]Players helped, hurt by scheme changes in 2015[/h]Field Yates, ESPN Insider

After four seasons in Pittsburgh, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders relocated to Denver during the 2014 offseason in a move that was widely regarded as solid. Not a real needle-mover relative to other transactions, but a nice potential fourth weapon for Peyton Manning behind Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker.
A year later, Sanders looks like one of the league's great bargains with a contract that carries a base value of less than $10 million combined for the next two seasons. Sanders burst onto the scene in 2014, posting career highs across the board in the Mile High city, including 101 catches, 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns, nearly as many as he had in his first four pro seasons (11).
The move illustrated how a player's fantasy value is rooted in more than his talents alone. Did Sanders play the best football of his career last season? Sure. But was he a quantum leap better in terms of ability from what we saw in Pittsburgh? No. But when you play in an offense in which you can dictate a favorable matchup on almost every snap, beefed up production can -- and did -- follow.
Below is a look at four players who should be positively impacted by a change of scheme or scenery in 2015, and four others who might be limited by their new surroundings.
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[h=2]Positive impact[/h]

[h=2]Mike Wallace | Minnesota Vikings | WR[/h]2014 finish: 18th among wide receivers
The Dolphins signed Mike Wallace during the 2013 offseason to be their big-play receiving threat, but just two years later he was dealt to Minnesota. The best we've seen from Wallace was in 2010-11 when he hauled in 18 touchdowns and averaged 18.6 yards per catch as the long-range threat withBen Roethlisberger under center. In Miami, there was a deep-ball disconnect, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill ranked 30th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage on throws 20 or more yards down the field (26.5 percent) and 30th in total QBR (60.4). Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has room to grow as a thrower but was markedly better than Tannehill down the field last season, ranking 14th in completion percentage at 37.8 and 15th and 15th in total QBR at 92.4.

[h=2]Frank Gore | Indianapolis Colts | RB[/h]2014 finish: 17th among running backs
It's not so much that Gore is a guarantee to get more than the 255 rushes he earned in San Francisco last season (the Colts had the No. 1 ranked passing attack), but the looks he faces when he does get his touches. Among players with at least 150 rushes in 2014, no one faced a loaded box (eight or more defenders) more regularly than Gore at 30 percent (76 of his 255 carries --hat-tip to Scott Kacsmar). With the Colts' high octane passing attack, stacking the box defensively would be a self-inflicted wound for a defense. Gore is far more likely to see extensive work versus a six-man box -- with much more space to operate through in 2015.

[h=2]Justin Forsett | Baltimore Ravens | RB[/h]2014 finish: 8th among running backs
Forsett was outstanding last year, and it won't be easy to sustain the production he managed with -- presumably -- more competition in the backfield from other Ravens runners (Lorenzo Taliaferro and draft choice Buck Allenincluded). But the change from Gary Kubiak to Marc Trestman as coordinator offers a potential schematic wrinkle that should reinforce confidence in Forsett as a low-end RB1 or high RB2 in 2015. Bears running back Matt Forte set a single-season record for catches from a running back in 2014 under Trestman's watch (102), while Forsett hauled in 44 passes. That's not a low figure, but if that increases in 2015, it will help offset any potential carries lost to the youngsters in the backfield.

[h=2]C.J. Spiller | New Orleans Saints | RB[/h]2014 finish: 65th among running backs
Spiller can be tantalizing for fantasy owners because of his uncommon athletic ability, but the elite traits have aligned with elite production for just one of his five NFL seasons (2012). Now in New Orleans, Spiller is -- according to coach Sean Payton -- going to have room to operate in space. That's when he's at his best, rather than pounding the ball between the tackles. He's not the type of running back who needs 250 touches over the course of a season. Close to 12 a game should be enough to be fantasy relevant and feels like a reasonable floor for him New Orleans.

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[h=2]Negative impact[/h]

[h=2]Julius Thomas | Jacksonville Jaguars | TE[/h]2014 finish: 7th among tight ends
There are a couple of angles to dissect this from, but let's start here: Thomas is no longer a primary target in what over the past two seasons has been the league's best passing offense with Peyton Manning at the helm. It would be rare for a player to leave Denver and wind up in dramatically better shape from a fantasy outlook. The new signal-caller for Thomas is Blake Bortles. His ascension from Year 1 to 2 is not only critical to the Jaguars' overall franchise health, but will play a decided part in Thomas' output. Unlike in Denver -- where he played alongside the aforementioned Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders -- Thomas can be the focal point that opposing pass defenses zone in on versus Jacksonville.

[h=2]DeMarco Murray | Philadelphia Eagles | RB[/h]2014 finish: 1st among running backs
A part of the Eagles' line of thinking in signing Murray (after tradingLeSean McCoy) was how he fit schematically within their offense. A decisive back with the foot precision to plant and work vertically up field is well suited in Philadelphia, but let's face it: Murray had one of the idyllic setups in Dallas in 2014. He ran behind the best offensive line in football and the third-run-heaviest offense in the league, eating up an astonishing 83.1 percent of all carries by Dallas running backs last season. While he's likely to be a seamless fit in Philly, Murray now has backfield competition, as former Charger Ryan Matthews was also signed this offseason. If he had stayed in Dallas, Murray could well have been the first back taken in drafts this year -- now he's likely a top-five to -eight back.

[h=2]Jeremy Maclin | Kansas City Chiefs | WR[/h]2014 finish: 8th among wide receivers
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</article>There's so much to love about Maclin's game, and there's probably a chicken-versus-egg interpretation debate with this one. Chiefs quarterbackAlex Smith was 33rd among qualifying quarterbacks in average passing yards at the catch in 2014 at just 4.4 yards (and 28th in yards per completion at 10.78), which suggests the speedy Maclin might be limited from the big plays that separated him in 2014 (he had six games last season with a catch of 50 or more yards). The counterpoint is that the Chiefs lacked a player with Maclin's skill set, motivating them to sign him this offseason.

[h=2]Kenny Stills | Miami Dolphins | WR[/h]2014 finish: 36th among wide receivers
The Dolphins were able to deal away Wallace in part because they had acquired a player with a similar level of speed in Stills, the NFL's leader in yards per catch in 2013 (20.0 yards per reception). That was with Drew Brees as his quarterback (who ranked fifth in total QBR on passing plays of 20-plus yards, completing 30 in total that season). While Tannheill is a player who should continue to prosper each season, developing a consistent downfield rapport with Stills is no sure thing (it never evolved with Wallace). Stills has yet to reach his ceiling in terms of production, but those hoping for immediate returns with a change of scenery might be wise to be patient.

Snap count data identifies impact rookies

Sharon Katz & Hank Gargiulo


Identifying rookies who will make a fantasy impact is often an exercise in futility. Last season, three rookies -- Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin -- ranked in the top 16 among wide receivers in standard fantasy scoring despite none of those players ranking in the top 40 in ESPN's preseason projections.
The biggest mistake that people make when projecting rookies is not paying enough attention to the situation into which players are drafted. In the NFL, particularly for first-year players, production is highly dependent on opportunity.

Beckham, Evans and Benjamin had one thing in common entering last season: They were all drafted by teams with gaping holes at receiver. All three ranked in the top six among rookie receivers in snaps and in the top four in targets, which resulted in each gaining more than 1,000 yards in 2014.
A similar story can be told for rookie running backs the past few years; the hype surrounding a player's college career often overshadows the chance he will see the field. Carlos Hyde, who was drafted into a crowded 49ers backfield, was a great example of this in 2014.
Based on snap data of the current 90-man rosters, below are five rookies who can make a significant fantasy impact in 2015 because they were drafted into favorable situations. It is unlikely that any of these rookies will be top-10 fantasy players, but they could provide value in deeper leagues and potentially emerge as late-round steals. It should be noted that the snap percentages may change as teams take shape in the preseason.

Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens: After losing Torrey Smith to free agency, the Ravens return 61 percent of their wide receiver snaps from 2014, which ranks 25th in the NFL. What opens up the opportunity for Perriman, however, is the fact that the Ravens did not sign a notable free agent to fill the void left by Smith.

In total, the receivers on the Ravens' current roster combined for 1,762 snaps in 2014, 540 fewer than any other receiving corps in the league. Add in the fact that the Ravens also lost their third-leading receiver, TE Owen Daniels, and there should be plenty of targets to go around for Perriman, who should thrive as Joe Flacco's go-to deep receiver.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins lost an NFL-high 69 percent of their 2014 wide receiver snaps in the offseason after Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson were traded or released. Tight endCharles Clay, the team's third-leading receiver, signed with Buffalo. That leavesJarvis Landry and new additions Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings as the Dolphins' top receiving options. Are any of those players No. 1 receivers? When you consider that Miami lined up with three of more wide receivers at the second-highest rate in the NFL in 2014, Parker should have plenty of opportunities to thrive in Bill Lazor's offense.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: First-round draft picks Todd Gurleyand Melvin Gordon will receive most of the attention among rookie running backs heading into the 2015 season, but Atlanta's Tevin Coleman provides a great option for deeper leagues, because he is bound to receive carries.
The Falcons return just 39 percent of their running back snaps from last year following the departures of Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers. Unlike the two teams that return a lower percentage of snaps -- the Dallas Cowboys andPhiladelphia Eagles -- the Falcons did not sign a notable free agent to fill their need. Instead, Atlanta drafted Coleman in the third round to play alongsideDevonta Freeman and Antone Smith.
ESPN.com Falcons reporter Vaughn McClure believes Freeman and Coleman will split carries to start the season, which should give Coleman the opportunity to showcase his speed and vision. If Coleman's production is anything close to the level he reached in his final year at Indiana (2,036 yards, 7.5 yards per carry), he could be a fantasy steal.

Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns: With Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell entering their sophomore seasons, the Browns return 60 percent of their running back snaps from last season, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. Instead of signing a player to fill the lost snaps, the Browns drafted Duke Johnson.

Last season, Cleveland ranked sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts while splitting carries between West, Crowell and Ben Tate. With a new offensive coordinator and question marks at quarterback, the Browns should emphasize rushing once again. Johnson, the University of Miami's all-time leading rusher, has a chance to overtake the remaining running backs on the roster.
Don't let Cleveland's inefficient rushing in 2014 (3.6 yards per carry) fool you. The Browns' rushing game took a turn for the worse after losing Pro Bowl centerAlex Mack. With Mack in the lineup, Cleveland averaged 4.4 yards per rush and ranked in the top five of the league in rushing yards per game.
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</article>Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: After being drafted No. 1 overall, Winston is not necessarily a sleeper like some of the players listed above. The past two rookie quarterback classes, however, have failed to produce virtually any fantasy value, so owners may be hesitant to draft an inexperienced signal-caller.

There is reason to believe Winston could make a fantasy impact in 2015, though. Not only is he likely to start from Week 1, but he should have a talented group of skill position players that experienced nearly zero turnover. Evans and Vincent Jackson will stretch the field, and their height will allow Winston to "throw it up" for big plays. Doug Martin also returns at running back and should provide balance on offense.
The combination of potentially 16 starts and an improved offense could make Winston the first rookie quarterback since 2012 to post numbers worthy of starting in many fantasy leagues.

Suspended Brady's value not drastically altered

Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

The four-game suspension delivered to New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady surely affects his fantasy standing for this coming season, but not as much as one might expect. After all, Brady finished the 2014 season as the No. 8 quarterback for standard fantasy scoring, and he supplied nearly all of that from the fifth game on.
You remember, right? Brady and his buddies were waxed on Monday Night Football by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, his four-game average for passing yards was a measly 197 and his fantasy value was pronounced pretty much toast. Then from Week 5 on, Brady outscored Drew Brees and supplied one fewer fantasy point than the awesome Andrew Luck. In other words, Tom was terrific again, and I expect he’ll be fine in 2015, when he plays.

Because I might be the lone ESPN Fantasy analyst sticking with Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell as my No. 1 overall option despite hispending three-game suspension, it stands to reason I’m not exactly overreacting about Brady’s value, either. For one, I half-expect this punishment to be reduced by a game. Bell is more valuable than Brady, even as the quarterback outscores him overall, because of the clear scarcity of top-notch running backs, but really, I envision Brady slipping in drafts so much that he’ll become a wise sleeper, if that’s even possible. Brady is still the same guy who has thrown 33 or more touchdown passes in four of five seasons, and as long as top weapon Rob Gronkowski is healthy and happy, he should remain productive. I’m guessing each will be pretty motivated by this as well.

The basic reasons for trusting Bell and Brady despite knowing there will be missed time is that they’re really good and no matter what anyone tells you, it’s not that hard to fill in for September games in fantasy football when there are fewer injuries and the fact that each team plays every week. I’m not saying Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo will look like the next Brady statistically for games against the Steelers (it’s DeAngelo Williams versus Jimmy G to open the season!), Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and perhaps Dallas Cowboys in Week 6 (after the bye week), but consider the positives in an unfortunate negative situation.

You’ll find a quarterback for September. There will be plenty. It’s a deep position and for 10-team formats, most owners won’t even need to select a backup. Perpetually underrated Cowboy Tony Romo might be available. It’s the same with the New York Giants' Eli Manning, San Diego Chargers' Philip Rivers andDetroit Lions' Matthew Stafford. If not those guys, then a few weeks with thePhiladelphia Eagles' Sam Bradford -- assuming he’s still upright -- Arizona Cardinals' Carson Palmer, Chicago Bears' Jay Cutler and frankly many more is not going to be the reason your team doesn’t need December lineup adjusting. You can overcome this. And by the way, Brady will have already served his bye week. He’ll be yours from Week 6 on.

Before the suspension news, Brady was my No. 5 quarterback, in the same tier for me with Brees, Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons and Cam Newton of theCarolina Panthers, well behind the top-four fellows, and still ahead of Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers and the options from the preceding paragraph. He remains in that tier for me, but becomes my No. 8 quarterback. Brees wasn’t the same last season and his Gronk was unceremoniously dealt to Seattle. Ryan has actually never finished better than seventh at quarterback for fantasy. Newton has upside, but as we saw, downside as well. Roethlisberger did quite a bit of his 2014 damage in two games. I’m unlikely to select any of the top passers, or Brees, Ryan, Newton and Roethlisberger. I’ll gladly take Brady in Round 7 or later, but I’m the guy who waits until Round 10 for the Romo and Stafford types anyway. Brady’s overall rank drops only a few spots. I think people will overreact, just like they have on Bell.

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</article>As for Gronkowski, who some regard as a first-rounder, this slight speed bump to his value ought to alter that a tad, but it doesn’t matter -- I ranked him as a late-second rounder and wouldn’t get him anyway. Now he’s just before the top quarterbacks early in Round 3. Yes, he’s the top tight end, but in terms of value, he gets drafted too generously. Colleague Christopher Harris points out each summer in his Value Based Drafting report how a tight end has never -- that’snever -- ended up a top-10 overall fantasy option using that method. I’ll take running backs and wide receivers, perhaps even Julian Edelman, among my first six, seven or eight picks and smile.
Similarly, Edelman’s value doesn’t drop much here, if at all. Garoppolo could be perfectly competent, you know. In fact, I expect he will be. Few Patriots would have been coveted selections for the first Buffalo game against new coach Rex Ryan, anyway. All remain juicy targets for the Jaguars tilt. Whatever one thinks about this suspension and what really happened or what should have been the punishment, I wouldn’t blow up your rankings to compensate.

Peterson's back, but risk remains

Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Now that controversial Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson has decided to officially return to the only NFL team he has ever played for and appears satisfied that the marriage can continue, it’s time to remind fantasy owners just how good this guy is. Well, you know that already, right? After all, Peterson was the consensus No. 1 pick in 2014 fantasy drafts, and it took something off the field to make him perhaps the season’s most notable statistical bust. On the field -- well, we’ll never know what numbers would have been provided, but he probably would have performed well, because he always does.

Heading into the 2015 season, on the surface there appears little reason to be concerned about Peterson’s pending statistics, and I’m seeing his name out there again for some -- including a few ESPN Fantasy colleagues -- as the top overall selection. I understand why, though for me he’s No. 5. This isn’t a personal thing, I assure you. While the way Peterson handles his business away from the field isn’t for everyone, we separate this from evaluation for our purposes. We just want the big numbers.

Perhaps I’m a bit more cautious than most in pointing out that this remains a 30-year-old running back, and we know from many previous examples that at that age, decline tends to set in, or in worst case scenarios, hit hard. Plus, it’s not like this is so obvious that he should go No. 1 overall; Peterson finished as the No. 5 fantasy running back in terms of points per game in 2013 and finished sixth in 2011. In his career, he has finished first only once (2012). I’m certainly not ripping him, but pointing out that choosing someone else first isn’t so ridiculous.

Yes, Peterson didn’t add any mileage to the proverbial tires last season, but hey, he’s still 30, and it’s not like he’s been carefully used through the years. He’s third among active running backs in rushing attempts, having already topped 2,000. Let’s not glide over this when evaluating player performance. Running backs old and young get hurt all the time and see performance dips, often sans warning, which is why the position isn’t held in the highest regard in the actual NFL draft, and while some can confidently say Peterson is simply special and different from all the rest, I can’t overlook risk as well.
He seems healthy and relatively happy today, reporting to a team with which he’s had important differences of opinion, but we’ve seen his risk come to fruition. He’s not young, in football terms, has dealt with and overcome a serious knee injury, and his off-field behavior and potential contract demands also remain factors in considering him as the highest of fantasy draft picks.

Still, I’m not so worried about Peterson that I’d avoid him if I pick in the middle of Round 1. I just like others more and thus probably won’t get him. Peterson has proven himself over the years despite a lack of weapons around him. The current version of the Vikings will expect quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, in his second season, to continue his rapid development, but he has never played in an NFL game with Peterson. An on-field relationship takes time. The Vikings still have the large Matt Asiata and the smaller Jerick McKinnon with whom to ease Peterson’s workload, both near the goal line and away from it. I don’t expect Peterson’s rushing attempts to decline from 2013, but the organization has options and perhaps, it should be noted, financial reasons to explore them.

Ultimately, we celebrated the amazing Peterson for his marvelous 2012 comeback season, when he topped 2,000 rushing yards, but his 2013 campaign was more modest. While it wouldn’t surprise me if Peterson ends up as fantasy’s top running back in 2015, I could also name five others with a reasonable opportunity to do so, and a few of them weren’t discontented question marks to report to their organization’s OTAs this week, and bring less overall risk. Just something to consider, that’s all.
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Ten players who will determine fantasy fates in 2015

Christopher Harris, Fantasy

Some guys are easy to rank. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, he should be great in 2015, and Blake Bortles would have to take a massive step forward just to be mediocre. Jamaal Charles is awesome; Darren Sproles is limited. Dez Bryant is a touchdown machine; Dwayne Bowe is probably doomed to bottom-tier status. Provided they avoid injury, these guys likely won't be the reason you win or lose your fantasy football league in 2015. Within relatively narrow parameters, they'll deliver the draft value you expect.
Most fantasy leagues will pivot on guys in the middle: players with big upsides and scary downsides. Guess right on them and you're looking at spectacular draft-day value. Guess wrong and you'll probably spend all year playing catch-up.

Let's dive into the 10 pivot-point players who are hardest to rank this summer and whose performance will make or break your fantasy team:

Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions: There's blood in the water for Bell, a top-15 fantasy running back last season who was No. 6 from Week 12 forward. He's coming off knee and Achilles surgeries, is entering the season as a 29-year-old and will have to fight off rookie Ameer Abdullah and incumbent Theo Riddick. A lazy glance of Bell's 3.9-yards-per-carry mark in each of the past two seasons might lead you to the conclusion that he's a sluggish runner, but he's not. On tape, I see an Eddie Lacy clone: a plow horse who can make a single elusive cut at the line and get upfield and who catches extremely well. The notion that Abdullah -- an electric runner but undersized and a college fumbler -- is fated to usurp Bell right away is, I think, an overstatement, especially given that Abdullah is expected to be the Lions' primary kick returner. Yes, Bell's understudies will receive 200 touches, but that still leaves him a fine candidate to eclipse 250 touches himself and be his team's primary goal-line back. In my personal ranks, Bell is No. 18 among RBs, but I admit he brings risk.

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders: Five rookie wideouts finished in the positional top 30 last year, and two -- Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans -- finished in the top 11. No doubt that will put pressure on Cooper and his fellow rookie WRs (including Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and Nelson Agholor) to produce right away. But historically speaking, it's been uncommon for first-year receivers to dominate immediately. In 2013, Keenan Allen finished 17th, the only rookie inside the top 30. In 2012, no rookies finished inside the top 20. A.J. Green and Julio Jones were good in 2011, but they finished "only" 16th and 18th, respectively. In other words, this is a difficult transition. Yes, Cooper already finds himself atop an NFL depth chart and I love his polish. But my tape study tells me Derek Carr deserved perhaps double his 12 interceptions last year, and there are other names (Michael Crabtree, Rod Streater and Andre Holmes) in Oakland. Overexcited fantasy owners will be tempted to take Cooper and his fellow rookies in Round 5. That could pay off because they're talented. But it could also look pretty bad by December.

Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Forsett was awesome last season. He finished as fantasy's No. 8 back and produced 80-plus scrimmage yards in 11 games, including a stretch of nine straight from Weeks 4 to 13. And he might have actually been underutilized as a receiver with "only" 44 catches. New offensive coordinator Marc Trestman allowed Matt Forte to catch a running back record 102 balls last season and figures to give Forsett a chance to go reception crazy in 2015. So why is Forsett a pivot player? He turns 30 in October and is thus far a one-hit wonder. He'd never eclipsed even 1,000 total yards in any of his six prior seasons, during which he'd mostly been a change-of-pace guy, and at 5 feet 8 and 190 pounds, I wonder if he can handle the pounding that comes with another full season of touches. Buck Allen and Lorenzo Taliaferroare bigger and loom as potential time-share options, but if you guess right on Forsett maintaining his production in 2015, you'll get yourself a draft-day bargain.

Josh Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints: If Hill steps in and assumes Jimmy Graham's entire role in 2015, he'll give you awesome value. After all, Graham saw at least 120 targets in four straight seasons before the Saints traded him this winter. But how can we be sure that will happen for a guy with 20 career receptions? On tape, it's obvious Hill has wheels. But he's a virtual unknown as a route runner. The idea that he can instantly become the kind of focal point Graham was -- even when a defense is scheming to stop him -- seems overly optimistic. Still, after Rob Gronkowski and Graham, the tight end position is filled with high-upside players with glaring warts who are likely to be feast or famine in 2015. If you select Hill early and take the chance that he rises above that TE middle class, you could be rewarded.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers. The presence of Reggie Bush in San Francisco isn't the reason I'm worried about Hyde. Nor am I concerned about talent: I thought Hyde looked strong during his rookie campaign. A huge workload awaits him, and that might tempt some fantasy owners to take him among the top 10 RBs. But I'm too chicken. I'm worried the 49ers might be bad. The team's run blocking fell from elite to merely good in 2014; the line was also a disaster in pass protection and lost Mike Iupati to free agency and Anthony Davis to retirement this offseason. Frank Gore finished 10th, 13th and 17th in RB fantasy points the past three years behind better blocking. Hyde has the crunching rushing chops to exceed those performances, and investing in talented players is rarely a bad strategy. But Hyde could get dragged down if the 49ers fall off a cliff without Jim Harbaugh.

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts: If Johnson takes the No. 2 job behind T.Y. Hilton and never looks back, he'll be a value pick in the sixth or seventh round. Andrew Luck will have 600-plus attempts; if we grant Hilton and the tight ends 300 targets, that still leaves a huge slice of pie available to the venerable Johnson. So the question surrounding his 2015 fantasy value will come down to how much gas he has left in his tank entering his age-34 season. Toward the end of 2014, I saw too many times when defensive backs had no problem running stride for stride with AJ, something that didn't happen a couple of years ago. Fortunately Hilton is an elite deep threat, so Johnson will rely on singled-up looks and check-downs; if things break right for him (especially in the red zone), he could produce big numbers. But there could be frustrating weeks, even setting aside the fact that young players like Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett could steal looks.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins: Landry had a nice rookie season. In a great year for first-year wideouts, he finished second in receptions and reception percentage. With Mike Wallace moving on from Miami, there's a temptation to believe Landry is ready to become a star; after all Wallace produced a top-20 fantasy season in 2014 despite his frustrations with the Dolphins' scheme. But according to his skill set, Landry might be more like a borderline top-30 WR with limited upside. His long speed isn't great and he's 5 foot 11, which makes him a good bet to play mostly out of the slot. Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and rookie DeVante Parker will share bigger-play duties on the outside (though Parker looks questionable for Week 1 with a foot injury). I'd consider Landry a good bet to lead his team in targets, but you'll have to bet on some red-zone TDs to get elite fantasy value out of him.


Jordan Matthews, WR,Philadelphia Eagles: Matthews did solid work as a rookie, scoring eight TDs and filling Philly's need for a big slot man to create matchup problems for nickelbacks or underneath zone defenses. Now thatJeremy Maclin has followed DeSean Jackson out the door, it's worth wondering whether Matthews -- who ran 439 of his 473 routes out of the slot last season -- will assume a more diverse role in 2015. If he doesn't, he's aMarques Colston type in a Sam Bradford offense, which would give him good-not-elite value. But if he plays outside, the sky could potentially be the limit, as Matthews would top an unimpressive outside depth chart that includes rookie Nelson Agholor, Josh Huff, Miles Austin and Riley Cooper. Matthews isn't an explosive athlete, but he's got legit long speed for a guy his size. His fate as a potentially elite fantasy weapon rests in Chip Kelly's hands.
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</article>Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: At least Stafford won't be pricey this year. His skills haven't gone anywhere: He's still got a big arm, good in-pocket mobility and he gets to throw to Calvin Johnson. But Stafford appears possessed by the ghost of Brett Favre. Ill-advised throws are his staple, evidenced by the fact that he's thrown a league-high eight red-zone interceptions during the past three years. A QB has reached at least 4,200 yards passing with 22 or fewer passing TDs five times in NFL history. Somehow, Stafford has produced two of those seasons in the past three years. His talent is obvious, and if he ever puts together a complete season, he could legitimately challenge for the top spot on the QB fantasy list. But he finished tied for 15th in QB fantasy points last year, so I'm not holding my breath.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Wow, people seem to be going nuts on Yeldon. After we ranked him 23rd in our sitewide group ranks, I got a ton ofTwitter questions about why he was so low. I grant you that at 6 foot 1 and 226 pounds, Yeldon looks like a feature back and the Jaguars have talked him up as their No. 1. But going back to Yeldon's college tape reminded me of how frustrating he could be. Yes, the power and one-cut ability were sometimes there, but so was the fumbling (10 as a collegiate player) and the fact that he was often pulled in big games for other running backs. It's also worth wondering how valuable the Jags can make any RB: In 2014, the team produced just 10 carries inside an opponent's 5, 29th best in the league. Finally, lest we forget that summer depth-chart status isn't the final word on fantasy value, let's remember the curious case of Bishop Sankey, who was considered last year's No. 1 rookie. If Yeldon pops as a true No. 1 RB, he could pop big. But he could also be Sankey-esque. Now, that's a pivot.

[h=1]Why Marshawn Lynch should be the No. 1 pick[/h]Christopher Harris, Fantasy

On canvasing this year's potential No. 1 overall draft picks and finding nothing but warts and question marks, I've finally given in. I'm through with paranoia. I'm finished with borrowing future problems. And so I present to you, dear reader, a treatise that will serve me well in 2015:
How I learned to stop worrying and love Marshawn Lynch.
I've been at the vanguard of Lynch paranoia for years. The Seattle Seahawks RB has a history of back problems, legal troubles and behavioral weirdness, but the most salient concerns when it comes to Lynch are related to his workload:
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	AGE	RUSHES	CATCHES	TOUCHES
2011	25	285	28	313
2012	26	315	23	338
2013	27	301	36	337
2014	28	280	37	317

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">Total Touches, 2011-14</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Lynch is just the 15th running back in NFL history to eclipse 280 carries in four straight seasons (and, incidentally, the 22nd to top 300 touches in four straight seasons).
Since our prime concern is the fear of a Beast Mode breakdown, let's put his workload in historical context. There have been eight seasons in NFL history in which a player entering his age-29 campaign was coming off at least four straight years of 280-plus carries:
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	AGE	RUSHES	RUSH YARDS	YPC	RUSH TDS
Eric Dickerson '89	29	314	1311	4.2	7
Thurman Thomas '95	29	267	1005	3.8	6
Jerome Bettis '01	29	225	1072	4.8	4
Curtis Martin '02	29	261	1094	4.2	7
Eddie George '02	29	343	1165	3.4	12
Edgerrin James '07	29	324	1222	3.8	7
Shaun Alexander '06	29	252	896	3.6	7
LaDainian Tomlinson '08	29	292	1110	3.8	11
Average		285	1109	3.9	8

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">Age-29 Season Performance</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
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</aside>Surprisingly, there's not a complete fantasy dud in this bunch. However, it should be noted that in their age-28 seasons, these eight RBs averaged 337 carries, 1,382 rush yards and 12 TDs. So on average there was a decrease at age 29, though absolutely not a fatal one.
In the interest of full disclosure, here are the age-30 RBs who were coming off at least four straight seasons of 280-plus carries:
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	AGE	RUSHES	RUSH YARDS	YPC	RUSH TDS
Eric Dickerson '90	30	166	677	4.1	4
Barry Sanders '98	30	343	1491	4.3	4
Ricky Watters '99	30	325	1210	3.7	5
Eddie George '03	30	312	1031	3.3	5
Edgerrin James '08	30	133	514	3.9	3
LaDainian Tomlinson '09	30	223	730	3.3	12
Average		250	942	4.0	6

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">Age-30 Season Performance</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
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</aside>Clearly, we start to see some real workload attrition here, as players wear down. And finally, here are the RBs over 30 who've come off at least four straight seasons of 280-plus carries:
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	AGE	RUSHES	RUSH YARDS	YPC	RUSH TDS
Ricky Watters '00	31	278	1242	4.5	7
Eddie George '04	31	132	432	3.3	4
Thomas Jones '09	31	331	1402	4.2	14
Thomas Jones '10	32	245	896	3.7	6
Walter Payton '87	33	146	533	3.7	4
Average		226	901	4.0	7

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">Over-30 Season Performance</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: BentonSansMedium, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
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</aside>All these numbers tell us two things. First, the wall is approaching for Lynch. Second, the end probably won't come in his age-29 season. If Lynch merely hits the average of the RBs in the age-29 category above, he'll produce totals that would've seen him finish seventh or eighth among fantasy backs in '14.
But I think that's Lynch's floor. I began this story with a historical analysis to rid us of the notion that Lynch is automatically doomed in '15 -- he's not! -- so I could examine last year's game tape with fresh eyes. And folks: It's impressive. Lynch lost nothing off his fastball last year.


ProFootballFocus marked Lynch down for 88 missed tackles last year, 21 more than the next-highest RB. (Only six RBs had more than half as many missed tackles as Lynch.) PFF also measured Lynch at an NFL-best 3.0 yards per carry after contact. He was, simply speaking, the most difficult man to tackle in pro football, despite the fact that at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, he's not one of the biggest backs in the league. Is Lynch a power back? Of course he is. But he's also an intelligent cutter and deceptively quick when he needs to take lateral steps. There isn't much wasted motion or pitter-patter of his feet, as Lynch is a textbook example of short-area explosiveness. Yes, he's great when he goes north-south, but he can get side-to-side with minimal effort and make plays around the edge, too.
Here's a simple fact: Lynch has been the best RB in fantasy over the past four years. It's not close. He has racked up 914 fantasy points (scoring double-digit TDs in each campaign), while the next-closest RB (LeSean McCoy) scored 825. As recently as January, when the Seahawks marched to their second-straight Super Bowl, Lynch looked like the league's premier RB, and Seattle will almost certainly continue to ride a run-heavy formula moving forward.
Remove age from the equation and I don't think there's much of an argument: Lynch deserves to be the highest-rated RB on your board. Of course, we can'tcompletely disregard age, but my analysis shows that while age-29 RBs coming off major workloads have fallen off a bit, they've performed well. That's why I've stopped worrying. While he brings increased risk, Lynch should be the first player off fantasy draft boards this summer.
Relax. Fret about tomorrow, tomorrow. Enjoy Beast Mode.

[h=1]Fantasy football: Ranking all 32 No. 3 wide receivers[/h]Mike Clay, Fantasy Football

It used to be that backup wide receivers simply weren't fantasy relevant. If you're not on the field, you can't catch passes.
Of course, there has been a major leaguewide change in philosophy over the past decade. Gone are the offenses heavy on fullbacks and two-tight end sets (OK, most of them. I'm looking at you, Gary Kubiak). Three-wide receiver sets are no longer just the base offensive set but rather the dominant formation. Consider that in 2007, NFL teams, on average, used their third wide receiver on 55 percent of pass plays. In 2014, that number was 69 percent. The popular "11" personnel package -- three wide receivers, one running back, one tight end -- was used on 43 percent of pass plays in 2007, but the mark jumped to 63 percent this past season.
As a result of the leaguewide shift, the wide receiver position is as deep as ever in fantasy. Last season, Odell Beckham Jr., Jordan Matthews, Eddie Royal,Mohamed Sanu, Kenny Stills, Martavis Bryant, Allen Hurns, John Brown,Robert Woods and Jarvis Landry entered the season no better than third on their respective team's depth chart, but each finished as a top-50 fantasy wide receiver.
Below is a fantasy ranking of the 32 players currently sitting third on their team's wide receiver depth chart. From WR3 options such as John Brown to upside bench stashes such as Cody Latimer, this list will allow you to make the best picks in the middle to late rounds of your draft.
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1. John Brown
Arizona Cardinals
Despite the team's quarterback struggles, the Cardinals were one of four clubs with three players among the top 60 fantasy wideouts last season. After a strong start, Carson Palmer's injury was a killer for Brown's production. He ended up 46th at the position. Of course, Palmer is back in 2015 and it's noteworthy that Brown racked up 35 targets when Palmer was under center last season. That trailed only Larry Fitzgerald (39) and Andre Ellington (36) and was well ahead of Michael Floyd (28), all of whom played significantly more snaps. Brown, arguably Arizona's top fantasy option at wide receiver, is worth WR3 consideration and a steal at his late-round ADP.

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2. Kenny Stills
Miami Dolphins
The bad news for Stills is that the Dolphins are loaded with offensive weapons, including strong depth at the wideout position. The good news is that the Dolphins love three-wide receiver sets and, oh yeah, he's absurdly good at football. Miami had its third wide receiver on the field for 80 percent of pass plays in 2014, which was the league's fourth-highest mark. The Dolphins have ranked in the top five in that category each of the past two seasons, which is no surprise when you consider that coach Joe Philbin comes from the Green Bay coaching tree (more on that later). Stills' playing time will be in jeopardy once first-round pick DeVante Parker returns to full health, but he's a good bet to stick at third on the depth chart.

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3. Davante Adams
Green Bay Packers
The Packers had a third wide receiver on the field on a league-high 90 percent of pass plays last season. In fact, over the past eight seasons, Green Bay has finished no lower than eighth in the category. This is great news for 2014 second-round pick and OTA all-star Adams. The second-year wideout will struggle for consistent volume, but he's a candidate to score five to seven touchdowns. That's rare for a No. 3 receiver. Arguably the top wide receiver handcuff, Adams would certainly be in the WR2 mix if one of Jordy Nelson orRandall Cobb went down because of an injury. Adams should be on your WR4 radar.

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4. Cody Latimer
Denver Bronco
The Broncos have ranked in the top five in the NFL in three-wide sets on pass plays in each of Peyton Manning's three seasons with the club. Unfortunately for Latimer, that was during the era of coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Gary Kubiak is now in control of the Denver offense and his units have ranked 31st, 29th, 31st, 32nd, 24th, 22nd, 27th and 22nd in the category over the past eight seasons. Consider that the Ravens had their third wideout on the field on 52 percent of pass plays last season, which was significantly lower than Denver's 80 percent mark. Although this is damning news for Latimer's upside, he has a ton of talent and is third in the pecking order for targets. Adding to his appeal is his handcuff value; he's one injury away from an every-down gig in a high-scoring offense.

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5. Rueben Randle
New York Giants
As noted earlier, the Packers have ranked near the top of the league in three-wide sets on pass plays each of the past eight seasons. A Green Bay assistant during that span leading up to 2014, current Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo clearly brought a similar philosophy to New York. After ranking 10th (71 percent) in the category in 2013, the Giants finished second (86 percent) during McAdoo's first season with the club. Not only is 24-year-old Randle primed for a ton of snaps, his prospects are even better when you consider Victor Cruz's shaky health.

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6. Phillip Dorsett
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts like to keep both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener busy, so it should be no surprise that they ranked toward the bottom of the league in three-wide sets last season. That figures to change at least slightly after they spent a first-round pick on Dorsett in April. Dorsett will face some competition for snaps from Donte Moncrief, but it really shouldn't be much of a contest. At the very least, Dorsett will be a situational deep threat in an elite, high-volume offense. He's a good bet for several big plays and, same as with Adams and Latimer, don't overlook that handcuff appeal.

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7. Tyler Lockett
Seattle Seahawks
A third-round pick in May, Lockett's landing spot was not ideal for short-term fantasy upside, but there's certainly an opportunity here for significant playing time. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are the favorites to start, but it may not be long before Lockett, who was nothing short of outstanding at Kansas State last season, takes over as the team's No. 1 wideout. An obvious concern here is volume, as Seahawks wideouts combined for 253 targets last season (third lowest), but Lockett has the talent and Seattle will score enough to put him on the re-draft radar.

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8. Nick Toon
New Orleans Saints
The Saints were one of four teams with three wide receivers among the top 60 fantasy wide receivers last season, and that was with Jimmy Grahamstill in the mix. Operating as the team's No. 3 wideout from Weeks 12 through 17, Toon handled 10 percent of the team's targets and sat 60th in fantasy points among receivers. That's nothing to get excited about, but it's fair to expect an expanded role with Graham and Stills gone, and with Marques Colston (now 32) nearing the end of the line. Toon will need to hold off Brandon Coleman,Seantavius Jones and Josh Morgan, but if he nails down the gig, the 6-foot-4 Toon is a sleeper for WR4 production in New Orleans' big-volume, high-scoring offense.

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9. Stevie Johnson
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers had their third wide receiver on the field on 86 percent of pass plays last season, which ranked third in the league. As a result, San Diego was the only team in the NFL with three wide receivers inside the top 50 in fantasy points (Malcom Floyd, Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal). Royal is out of the mix and Johnson is a more than capable replacement. Johnson's upside isn't what it was during the Chan Gailey era in Buffalo, but he's going to play a lot regardless of the health of Floyd and Allen.

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10. Cordarrelle Patterson
Minnesota Vikings
A popular 2014 breakout candidate after scoring nine all-purpose touchdowns as a rookie, Patterson couldn't take advantage of an every-down role. Now behind Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson and possibly Jarius Wright, Patterson's high ceiling is all that keeps him in the top half of this list. Vikings wideouts combined for 274 targets last season, which was the league's eighth-lowest mark.

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11. Josh Huff
Philadelphia Eagles
Most are fully aware of the speed and efficiency of Chip Kelly's no-huddle offense, but what about his personnel usage? Although the team sports a pair of quality tight ends in blocker Brent Celek and pass-catcher Zach Ertz, the Eagles have ranked in the top 10 in three-wide sets on pass plays during each of Kelly's two seasons. Currently, the Eagles wide receiver depth chart is tough to sort out behind Jordan Matthews, but Huff has a good shot at nailing down the No. 3 job. He'll compete with rookie Nelson Agholor (the favorite for No. 2 duties), Riley Cooper and underrated Miles Austin.

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12. Justin Hunter
Tennessee Titans
Entering his second NFL season, Hunter had the looks of a clear breakout player after a strong 2014 preseason. Instead, he struggled badly with inconsistency, and Tennessee's offense finished 30th in touchdowns. Now behind Kendall Wright, Delanie Walker and, inevitably, 2015 second-round pickDorial Green-Beckham on the target totem pole, Hunter has the looks of a bust. There is some hope. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has a history of heavily utilizing his wide receivers and that showed up in 2014 when he kept his third wideout on the field for 77 percent of pass plays (seventh highest). Hunter has age (24) on his side, is blessed with a 6-4, 203-pound frame, and Marcus Mariota solidifies the quarterback position. Of course, if Harry Douglas or Hakeem Nicks pass Hunter on the depth chart, you can go ahead and put a fork in him.

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13. Eddie Royal
Chicago Bears
As noted earlier, the Broncos have been extremely reliant on three-wide sets during the Peyton Manning era. Head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase are out in Denver and will take on the same roles in Chicago this season. The Bears sent Brandon Marshall to New York during the offseason but replaced him with Royal and seventh overall pick Kevin White. Royal and White will compete with Marquess Wilson for the starting gig opposite Alshon Jeffery. Royal is a good bet to end up third in line but will be busy out of the slot in an offense that will need to throw a lot.

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14. Allen Hurns
Jacksonville Jaguars
Hurns isn't getting a ton of attention this offseason, but with Justin Blackmon seemingly not close to returning, Hurns is in line for No. 3 duties in a Jacksonville offense that should be at least slightly better in Blake Bortles' second year. Hurns was on the field for just under 80 percent of the team's pass plays last season and paced the team's wide receivers in fantasy points. He's behind only Allen Robinson (coming off an injury) and Marqise Lee (already injured) but also will need to fend off rookie Rashad Greene.

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15. Justin Hardy
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons finished in the top 10 in three-wide sets on pass plays last season, but that was before the hiring of OC Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan hasn't been big on three-wide sets during his career and the team's personnel movement (released WR Harry Douglas, signed TEs Jacob Tamme and Tony Moeaki) align with a scheme adjustment. Undersized at 5-10, 188 pounds, Hardy is ticketed for slot duties as a rookie, but Julio Jones' durability is a concern and the same could be said about 33-year-old Roddy White. There's handcuff and deep PPR appeal here.

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16. Danny Amendola
New England Patriots
The Patriots had their third wide receiver on the field on 48 percent of pass plays last season, which ranked dead last in the league. Even more damning for Amendola is the fact that no team is carrying more tight ends on its roster than New England this offseason. Amendola's playing time picked up slightly down the stretch in 2014, but his value is only that of a handcuff toJulian Edelman.

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17. Robert Woods
Buffalo Bills
In coach Rex Ryan's five seasons in New York, the Jets ranked 29th, 23rd, 25th, 18th and 26th in usage of their third wide receiver on pass plays. Meanwhile, during his four seasons in San Francisco, OC Greg Roman's offense ranked 26th, 32nd, 32nd and 31st. Now in control of the Bills' offense, Ryan and Roman are sure to put a major damper on Woods' upside. Stuck in a run-heavy offense and behind Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin on the depth chart, andCharles Clay on the target totem pole, Woods won't be worth a draft pick in most fantasy leagues.

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18. Tavon Austin
St. Louis Rams
Coach Jeff Fisher prefers to lean heavily on his running game and we saw confirmation of that philosophy when St. Louis used the 10th overall pick in April's draft on Todd Gurley. The Rams ranked 22nd in three-wide sets when passing last season and that number is unlikely to rise with Gurley in the fold. That leaves Austin without much of an opportunity to rack up touches. He's certainly behind Kenny Britt and Brian Quick, and will need to hold off Stedman Bailey for snaps.

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19. Cecil Shorts
Houston Texans
Shorts has an opportunity to start opposite DeAndre Hopkins this season, but his rough 2014 efficiency and long-term durability issues make it unlikely he'll beat out rookie Jaelen Strong. Weak at quarterback, the Texans will continue to lean heavily on Arian Foster. Nate Washington is also in the mix for a significant role.

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20. Markus Wheaton
Pittsburgh Steelers
In 2013, the Steelers were the only team in the NFL with three top-35 fantasy wide receivers. Last season, they were one of four teams with a trio of top-60 wideouts and ranked sixth in three-wide sets on passing downs. So why the low ranking for Wheaton? Sammie Coates. The rookie fell to the third round (Wheaton was a third-rounder in 2013), but is bigger and more talented than Wheaton. It's only a matter of time until Coates is working in three-wide sets with Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.

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21. Rod Streater
Oakland Raiders
Coach Jack Del Rio's offenses ranked 22nd, 25th, 20th, 22nd and 25th in three-wide sets when passing during his final five seasons with the Jaguars. As the Vikings' OC in 2011-13, Bill Musgrave's offenses ranked 23rd, 26th and 27th in the category. Oakland rebuilt its wide receiver unit during the offseason, adding Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but Del Rio and Musgrave have a long history of run-heavy football. The additions of backs Roy Helu and Trent Richardson, and tight ends Clive Walford and Lee Smith, suggest they'll stick with that philosophy. Streater also needs to hold off Andre Holmesfor snaps.

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22. Cole Beasley
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys wide receivers combined for 263 targets last season, which was the league's fourth-lowest mark. Even if Dallas passes more often (likely after the departure of DeMarco Murray), Beasley will be limited to situational slot duties behind Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Beasley is only worth a look in deep PPR leagues.

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23. Andre Roberts
Washington Redskins
The Redskins' No. 3 wideout throughout the 2014 season, Roberts was on the field for a generous 73 percent of the team's pass plays. That allowed him only 36 receptions, 453 yards and two scores. Roberts has scored only twice in four of his five NFL seasons. There's little upside here.

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24. Mohamed Sanu
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were the league's fifth run-heaviest team last season, so it's a bit of a surprise that they had their No. 3 wideout on the field for 73 percent of their pass plays (14th highest). Jermaine Gresham is out at tight end, but Cincinnati reloaded at the position with the return of Tyler Eifert and draft picksTyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah. Behind A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Gio Bernard and Eifert for targets, Sanu is safe to ignore.

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25. Brian Hartline
Cleveland Browns
The Browns relied heavily on multiple-tight end sets last season but overhauled their wide receiver unit and changed offensive coordinators during the offseason. Still, this is team shaky at quarterback but strong on the offensive line and at tailback. The Browns will run the ball as much as possible, leaving Hartline without much of an opportunity for targets. He's stuck behind Dwayne Bowe and slot man Andrew Hawkins, and will need to hold off Taylor Gabriel,Travis Benjamin and rookie Vince Mayle.

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26. Jeremy Kerley
New York Jets
During the Rex Ryan era, the Jets' third wide receiver was on the field on 56 percent of the team's pass plays. That ranked near the league basement. In Chan Gailey's three seasons as coach of the Bills (2010-12), Buffalo ranked second (82 percent), first (85 percent) and first (86 percent) in the category. Bringing his spread offense to New York in 2015, expect a very different-looking Jets offense. Kerley is the favorite for slot duties but will struggle for significant targets behind Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and Jace Amaro. Even worse, second-round pick Devin Smith is certain to steal snaps out of the gate. Smith is actually the better roster stash in deeper leagues.

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27. De'Anthony Thomas
Kansas City Chiefs
Without much talent at the wide receiver position last season, coach Andy Reid was forced to rely heavily on his fullback and second tight end. As a result, Chiefs' wideouts combined for an NFL-low 223 targets and failed to score a touchdown. With Jeremy Maclin and Chris Conley now in the mix, the unit is better but still lacks depth. That leaves Thomas -- a hybrid player last season but now converted to wide receiver -- in position to handle No. 3 duties. He'll be pushed for snaps by Albert Wilson and Jason Avant.

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28. Kamar Aiken
Baltimore Ravens
OC Gary Kubiak is out in Baltimore, but the team plans to stick with many of his offensive concepts after what was a successful 2014 season. That figures to mean a lot of two-wide receiver sets, especially considering the team's weak depth at the position and after the club selected tight ends Maxx Williamsand Nick Boyle in the 2015 draft. Aiken will face off with Marlon Brown, Michael Campanaro and rookie Darren Waller for the No. 3 gig.

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29. Quinton Patton
San Francisco 49ers
An NFL-high 72 percent of the 49ers' throws were directed at a wide receiver last season, but offseason coaching and personnel changes suggest that number will dip in 2015. Reggie Bush was added at running back and Vernon Davis' numbers are likely to rebound after a down season in 2014. Behind Torrey Smith and target hog Anquan Boldin, Patton is the favorite for scraps in what will be a run-heavy, low-scoring offense. Patton will need to beat out Bruce Ellington, Jerome Simpson and eventually DeAndre Smelter for the No. 3 gig.

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30. Jerricho Cotchery
Carolina Panthers
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</article>After hauling in 10 touchdowns for Pittsburgh in 2013, Cotchery predictably crashed back to earth last season. He scored only once despite working 84 percent of the team's pass plays. Heavily reliant on its run game, Carolina ranked 27th in three-wide sets on pass plays in 2014 and 25th in 2013. Now behind Kelvin Benjamin and rookie Devin Funchess, and no lock to beat out Philly Brown, 33-year-old Cotchery can be ignored.

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31. Corey Fuller
Detroit Lions
Detroit had its third wide receiver on the field during three-quarters of its pass plays last season, but rarely targeted the position. Behind Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, Fuller, Jeremy Ross and Ryan Broyles combined for only 69 targets. Fuller is safe to ignore.

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32. Louis Murphy
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Two-thirds of the Buccaneers passes were directed at the wide receiver position last season (eighth most), but a hefty 52 percent went to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Any offensive improvement hinges on Jameis Winston, and he's coming off a down season at Florida State. Competing with fifth-round pick Kenny Bell, Murphy isn't even locked in as the No. 3 receiver.

Joyner's Big Number: Quarterbacks

KC Joyner, NFL Insider


What are the real statistical difference makers when it comes to grading fantasy football prospects? What are the big numbers that everyone should be paying attention to?
I was asked to look into the answers to these questions as part of the "Big Number" element detailed in each of the player rating sections in the ESPN 2015 fantasy football magazine.
As is often the case in a project of this nature, the research generated a lot of compelling information outside of the scope of the magazine write-up, so we're going to open the "Big Number" stat vault and share some additional findings in a three-part series over the next three weeks.
For this week, the subject is quarterbacks.<offer></offer>
Pay close attention to vertical pass production

The winner in the quarterback "Big Number" section was vertical pass production. The top 20 fantasy quarterbacks in 2014 posted 50 percent more fantasy points per attempt on vertical throws (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield) than on short passes (attempts thrown 10 or fewer yards). In addition, five of the eight quarterbacks with 100 or more points on vertical passes ranked in the top six in overall fantasy quarterback scoring (Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees).
The point production returns were even greater on stretch vertical passes (throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air). The top 20 fantasy quarterbacks last season averaged 0.7 points per stretch vertical pass attempt. That total was higher than vertical points per attempt (0.6) and was nearly double the 0.4 points per short pass attempt.
What does this mean on draft day? When in doubt, always select a quarterback who is in an offense that will allow him to throw deep.

Quantity trumps quality after top QBs are selected

Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo were the only quarterbacks among the top 20 fantasy QBs last season to average 0.5-0.6 points per play (plays being defined as pass attempts plus sacks and rush attempts).
Every other passer in the top 20 scored 0.4 points per play with the exceptions of Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr (0.3 points per play).
The takeaway here is quite simple: Once the handful of elite points-per-play quarterbacks are off the board, the production rates level off, so quantity trumps quality. Four-tenths of a point might not seem like much, but multiply that by 100 plays (the difference between a high-play-volume quarterback and low-play-volume quarterback) and it equals 40 points, or 2.5 points per game on average.





Don't worry much about interceptions

Over the past two seasons, quarterback risk-taking rates have been dropping league-wide. It was only a few years ago that a quarterback was considered to be taking too many chances if he registered a 3.0 percent mark or higher in my bad decision rate (BDR) metric. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. A 3.0 percent total here indicated one out of every 33-34 passes (or roughly one per game) were errors of this nature, which was significantly higher than the one in every 50 risky passes (2.0 percent) rate that served as the rough median for pro passers.
Relentless improvements in game management around the NFL pushed the league-wide BDR to 1.5 percent last season. This decline is largely due to less risk taking on vertical and stretch vertical throws, as the league-wide BDR on those aerials dropped to 3.0 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, last season. That means downfield passing right now is about as risky as overall passing was five years ago.
What this means for fantasy owners is that, outside of a few rare cases or dramatic regressions (e.g. if Jay Cutler returns to his former abysmal bad decision ways now that Marc Trestman is in Baltimore), it is not necessary to be concerned with the number of interceptions a passer will post.

Rushing production is a crouton on a fantasy football salad<article class="ad-300">

</article>It is always tempting to lean on rushing plays as a tiebreaker between fantasy quarterbacks, but the facts show that is generally a low-percentage proposition. Eight of the top 12 quarterbacks posted 10 or fewer points on rushing plays last season.
In most cases, rushing play production is also not enough to offset subpar pass play production. Two good examples of this from last season were Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. They posted 75 and 58 points, respectively, on rushing plays in 2014, totals that were only exceeded by the 113 points Russell Wilson scored on rushing plays.
Those high ground game rankings were not enough to offset the fact that Newton and Kaepernick were the only top 20 fantasy quarterbacks to register fewer than 100 points on short passes. Given that the average top 20 quarterback posted 140 points on short throws, Newton and Kaepernick simply could not keep pace even with their upper-tier rushing totals. It means that without improvements in dink-and-dunk aerial volume and production, Newton and Kaepernick will very likely be relegated to QB2 territory status again this season.

Why Jamaal Charles is worth the No. 1 pick

Matthew Berry,
Fantasy

"You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it."

I've used that line a lot over the years, and it's proved to be true time and again.
The first round (especially the first pick) is not a place to get cute or mess around.
If you blow your first-round pick, you're probably done for the season.
Just ask anyone with Adrian Peterson on their team last year.
The other line I use a lot -- I'm both a slave to tradition and fairly lazy -- is this: "You don't have to finish the year as the No. 1 player to be worth being the No. 1 pick."
Both statements are practical, preaching being conservative over swinging for the fences early on.
That safety is why Jamaal Charles is my pick for No. 1. (Truthfully, he's neck-and-neck with Peterson for me now that Peterson has reported to the Vikings, but this article is about Charles.)
Charles is the safest guy. No suspensions looming, no insane usage during the past four years where you worry about a decline, no injury concerns, no age or off-the-field issues, no concerns about lack of carries or him being touchdown-dependent.
No, Jamaal Charles is as safe as they come.
Since Andy Reid took over the Kansas City Chiefs, no running back has scored more fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring than Charles. In fact, he is second in fantasy points during the past three years across all positions.
People will point to last season as being a down year for Charles, but I disagree.
Yes, he went from 19 touchdowns in 2013 to 14 last season, but look closer: He had the same yards per carry, and he was still top-five in the NFL among running backs in yards per rush, rushing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns and routes run.
He averaged basically the same number of rushing yards after contact and receiving yards after contact and, per our friends at Pro Football Focus, actually had more fantasy points on a per-carry basis than he did in 2013.Charles' touches were down last season, as were his touchdowns, so the people who want to knock him use those stats.
That's misguided to me. Touchdowns from year to year are fluky (and again, he scored nine rushing touchdowns), and he touched the ball almost 250 times.
Adding Ben Grubbs to the offensive line should help, and the additions of Jeremy Maclin and a fully healthy Travis Kelce to start the season will improve an offense that averaged five points per game fewer in 2014 than it did in 2013.
But the argument for Charles is found not in last year's stats but rather throughout his career.
He has played at least 15 games in six of seven seasons, so he is the least likely running back of the top options to fall off the cliff.
Every year there is at least one Doug Martin-type who goes high in drafts and doesn't return value.
If you were to rank the guys at the top in terms of likelihood to fail and not return value, Charles would be ranked last.
He is the clear focal point of a good offense.
He is a tough runner but also is used so much in the passing game and creatively in space that the chance of injury is less than for some running backs who just slam into the line play after play.
And he is still relatively young, at 28.
And I like that there is a clear-cut handcuff in Knile Davis.
If you draft Charles, you can grab Davis and feel pretty good that if something happens, you can plug in Davis and get close to the same production.
You can't say that about any of the other backups to the top options.
That is, if you can even identify who the backup is for some of them.Seventh in points last season, first in total points the past two years, second in total points the past three years, Charles is as close to money in the bank to return top-10 fantasy value at running back as there is in the game today.
And like I said, you don't have to finish the year at No. 1 to be worthy of the No. 1 pick.
You want surefire, elite-level production with your first-round pick, and there's no surer thing for that than Jamaal Charles.

What is the optimal draft spot this season?


Tristan H. Cockcroft, Fantasy

We stress over many things during a fantasy football draft.
But first and foremost, we stress over draft position.


Admit it, there might not be a single portion of the draft process that is approached with as much anticipation as the drawing of the draft order. "What's my draft spot?" "Did the commish select the draft order yet?" "Is the draft room open so I can see the draft order?"

This season, it seems like the annual draft position debate is raging with greater passion than ever, with no consensus No. 1 overall pick. The case can be made for more than six different players to begin the draft, so there's sure to be a wide array of opinions on the best draft position in 2015.

To help you make this all-important decision -- assuming you have a say in it -- I asked 11 of ESPN's fantasy football analysts -- Matthew Berry, Tom Carpenter, Mike Clay, Ken Daube, Christopher Harris, KC Joyner, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, Jim McCormick, Matt Williamson and Field Yates -- their opinions, as well as offering my own, on the optimal draft position in varying formats.

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ESPN standard leagues (10 teams)

You've seen our rankings and you've seen the early ADP; there is a clear top tier of five running backs closely bunched. We've even written stories stating the case for each of them as well as one who isn't widely regarded to be a member of that tier, C.J. Anderson. It's like a "grab bag" of comparable talents ... but maybe you don't see it that way. Where do you want to pick? Our analysts shared their preferences below.

Keith Lipscomb -- Pick 1: From the mocks in which I've taken part, I've really liked how things have fallen for those picking first. While it's not easy to decide which running back to take with the top pick, at least you know you have an elite option, while those toward the back of the round won't be excited about the remaining options there but still may feel forced to take at least one with their top two picks. And because of that, many of the best wide receivers are still there at 20 and 21, giving your team an imposing foundation to build upon.

Mike Clay -- Pick 1-3: In an ideal scenario, I'm picking in the top three of 10- and 12-team leagues. The reason? The "Big 23." My top tier includes 11 running backs, 11 wide receivers and a single tight end. In a 10-team league, landing an early pick guarantees I will land three members of that top-23 tier.

Matthew Berry -- Pick 1-5: I prefer to be in the top five regardless of format. Studies have shown that the person picking first wins most often, picking second wins the second-most, and so on. You can win from any position -- it's all about value in middle to late rounds and waiver/roster management in-season -- but if I'm picking, I want to be as close to first as possible. That's especially true this year when you see who is generally available at the Round 2-3 turn after picking first overall. The first few rounds are deeper this year than in years past.

Eric Karabell -- Pick 1 or 10: I generally want to pick first or last because I like consecutive selections. First is a nice spot this year in a standard 10-teamer because you're assured a top-tier RB -- there are five or six of them -- and top-tier wide receivers still slip to picks 20-21. If picking last, getting three top talents is a bit more problematic but doable.

Tristan H. Cockcroft -- Pick 4-5: I'd flip a coin between these two spots, and it has as much to do with my odds of a preferred pick of mine falling to me in Round 3 as it does in Round 1. In Round 1, I'm assuming a Le'Veon Bell orMarshawn Lynch will stick around to five -- four would assure me of either -- while in Round 3, I'm confident that at least one member of my top 23 players lasts. The four spot seems the wisest to me, but draft position this season seems to be at least as much about Round 3 as it does Round 1.

Jim McCormick -- Pick 4-6: From these spots in standard drafts you can net any one of the elite, bankable backs: Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch or Arian Foster. Being at the back end of this parity-laden performance tier allows for stronger options, especially among the top tier of wideouts, on the way back in the second.

Ken Daube -- Pick 5: As I have Arian Foster and C.J. Anderson atop my draft board, I feel extremely confident that I will be able to select one of those two players in any draft with the fifth pick. I can understand the love for any of the players who are normally selected before these two, however I think the risks associated with any of those players are understated.

Matt Williamson -- Pick 4-7: This year more than ever, I want to pick in the middle. Without a clear-cut top running back, I would be happy with whoever fell to me. Overall, I always prefer to pick in the middle of rounds, as in many cases, especially as the draft goes along, the two players I am deciding from both end up on my squad.

Tom Carpenter -- Pick 5-6: You can draft a winning lineup from any position; there are advantages and disadvantages to each spot. That said, you are more likely to have values drop to you if you are picking in the middle each round.

Christopher Harris -- Pick 6: You can make any draft position work in a 10-team league. But I guess the logical answer is this: Since I like the first six RBs roughly the same, I'll pick sixth and take the earlier second-round pick. However, by August, I think we'll see Bell's suspension reduced. If that happens, I'll take him at No. 1 overall, please.

KC Joyner -- Pick 6-10: At those points, a fantasy owner should be able to select a RB1 and either Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski in the first two rounds. There is enough RB depth to get a quality RB2 in Round 3, so this would give a team two quality starting running backs and an impact pass-catcher to build a team around.

Field Yates -- Pick 7-9: Nothing kicks off a draft quite like a secure running back selection, and this year the tier of "safe" backs feels a bit deeper. I'd be comfortable taking 10 backs in the first round (our top 11 in the ESPN Fantasy ranks, only swapping out Jeremy Hill, 11th, for LeSean McCoy, 10th). For a double-dip opportunity, this is my preferred range.

[h=2]Twelve-team standard leagues[/h]Now, let's expand the player pool, adding two teams but keeping everything else the same. Would opinions change among our fantasy analysts?
Lipscomb -- Pick 2-3: Since I think there are a solid 11 running backs, 11 wide receivers and Gronk, I'd prefer to pick here in a 12-teamer.
Cockcroft -- Pick 2-3: For me, the top 25 overall players is the "elite tier," so moving any further back than this runs the risk of disappointment with my available Round 3 optons.
Harris -- Pick 4-6: I don't see any format where there's an obvious No. 1 pick, or even an obvious Nos. 1-3. Running backs are scarce, wide receivers are plentiful, so I'm sticking with the middle of the first round.
Karabell -- Pick 1 or 10: It doesn't change much for me in deeper formats or PPR, though obviously you avoid certain running backs that don't catch passes early in PPR. Regardless, you're still targeting elite, volume wide receivers.
Carpenter -- Pick 6-7: I want the middle even more in larger drafts because it's nearly impossible to score values when 20-plus players come off the board between picks when drafting near one end or the other.
Joyner -- Pick 6-10: The same RB1/Antonio Brown-Rob Gronkowski strategy for the first two rounds. The difference is picking a RB2 four picks later in Round 3, but that should result in similar RB2 value.

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[h=2]Ten-team PPR leagues[/h]Point-per-reception (PPR) leagues are different beasts, with a clearer-cut No. 1 overall pick in Le'Veon Bell. As you'll see, there's more of an opinion among our analysts that an earlier pick is preferred.
Cockcroft -- Pick 1: It's considerably different for me in PPR, where I want to guarantee myself Le'Veon Bell, but more importantly, demand three picks from the top nine running backs, 11 wide receivers and tight end. Do the math: That's 21 players, and I'm more concerned that someone like LeSean McCoy or Alshon Jeffery isn't going to make it past pick 21.
Clay -- Pick 1-3: My "Big 23" tier holds up in PPR formats, but the likes ofJustin Forsett, Andre Ellington and Brandin Cooks aren't the worst third-round fallback options if you're "stuck" with a midround pick.
Joyner -- Pick 1-3: Antonio Brown is such a differencemaker in PPR leagues that it pays to have an early pick to acquire him.
Yates -- Pick 7-9: I'm still good in this sweet spot, understanding that in PPR if I end up with a top WR at the front end of Round 2, that's something I'd be just fine with.
Daube -- Pick 8-10: I prefer to be near the end of the first round. Ideally I'd grab a combination of Rob Gronkowski and Arian Foster or C.J. Anderson with my first two picks.

[h=2]Twelve-team PPR leagues[/h]Sensing a pattern? Yes, now let's add two more teams to the PPR mix.
Joyner -- Pick 1-3: Antonio Brown rule again.
Cockcroft -- Pick 3: I'll risk the three, judging Bell, Jamaal Charles and Antonio Brown the clear class of PPR, and thinking that maybe one of the top 21 I want will last to pick 22 if an owner between my picks feels the pressure ofhaving to reach for a second-round running back.
McCormick - Pick 10-12: If anything, I'm likely more inclined to prefer being in the latter portion of the first, in the 10-12 range with an eye on either two surefire WR1 assets.

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[h=2]Other formats: 2QB, keeper/dynasty, 14-team, etc.[/h]Now things get interesting. Our 12 fantasy football analysts play in a variety of different formats, from two-quarterback to keeper leagues to extremely deep leagues of 14 teams (and sometimes even more). I asked each analyst to share his preferred league type and desired pick in said format; the format is listed first before the desired pick.
Carpenter, keeper leagues -- Pick 1: I mark keepers off my draft list, then usually want the top remaining draft spot. With a depleted talent pool, there may be only 1-2 studs available and I want one.
Clay, 16-team leagues -- Pick 10 or higher: The early-round pick won't usually work in 16-team leagues. To guarantee yourself two players from the top tier, you'll need to pick 10th or later.
Cockcroft, 2QB leagues -- Pick 1-3: I'm a big fan of the two-quarterback format, and this season, I see Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck being the clear class of the position, sure to be picked among the first four players of any draft. I'd most prefer the two, but I'm willing to risk the three, with the idea that if both quarterbacks go earlier, I'll take a running back upside shot on Bell.
Daube, 2QB leagues -- Pick 1-3: The only major adjustment I make for nontraditional formats comes in 2QB leagues. For those, I really want to be near the front of the draft order and I'll move quickly to ensure I have two strong quarterback options in my first three picks.
Harris, 14-plus team leagues -- Pick 1-5: The bigger the league size, the less likely I want to draft toward the end of the first round. Of course, in the end, most leagues will be decided by random late-round running backs anyway ... Harrumph!
Joyner, 2QB leagues -- Pick 1: Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback who is apt to give his fantasy owners a quarterback point win over the opponent's QB1 three out of four times.
Karabell, 2QB leagues -- Pick 1-3: The lone format in which I alter early-round strategy a great deal is 2QB, in which I like to secure a top quarterback relatively early. In standard formats, I might wait on quarterback until near the very end.
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</article>Lipscomb, 14-team leagues -- Pick 4: I am fine with the fourth spot in 14-team leagues (with my second pick being 25th). Because Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck have gone a little earlier in the 14-team mocks I've seen, that fourth spot is about as far as I feel comfortable knowing I'll get at least two players I really like (and hopefully three, if things fall my way).
McCormick, 2QB leagues -- Pick 7-9: I also prefer the back end in draft position in a 2QB format. With signal callers consuming a substantial portion of the first round, drafting in the 12-14 range allows me to choose from some elite backs, multiple special wideouts and a handful of stud quarterbacks to pair together for that first turn.
Williamson, 14-team leagues -- Pick 1-5: Again, this year, I don't think there is a huge difference. But in a 14-teamer, I would very much want to ensure getting one of the top running backs.
Yates, 14-plus-team leagues -- Pick 4-6: As we sail north of 12 teams in a league, I'm more inclined to push my preferred window to 4-6 to land one of the running backs that are in the conversation for No. 1 overall.

[h=1]Joyner's Big Number: running backs[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

Quarterbacks were the subject of Part 1 of the Big Number series that looks at the real statistical difference makers in fantasy football.
Part 2 of this series will cover the key numbers for running backs. It might seem that ball carriers have a fairly direct path to fantasy football value, but closer examination of the metrics indicates there are vastly overvalued and undervalued areas that can be profitably utilized by savvy team owners.
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[h=2]1,000 rushing yards is the gold standard[/h]The search for gold among fantasy football running backs often leads owners to spend time reviewing factors like goal-line carries, pass receiving or schedules, but in reality, the exploration should be quite simple: When it comes to gauging running back value, keep this formula in mind: 1,000 rushing yards = a fantasy football RB1.
The evidence for this can be found in the top 10 fantasy running back rankings over the past five years.
In that time frame, 48 of the 51 backs who placed among the top 10 in fantasy scoring at this position posted 1,000 or more rushing yards. (Note: There are 51 backs because there was a tie for 10th place in one season.) This indicates that getting 1,000 rushing yards is a must for RB1 status, and also that it is nearly impossible to achieve RB1 status without reaching 1,000 rushing yards.
[h=2]1,000 rushing yards is also a very good silver standard[/h]Not all 1,000-yard backs end up at the RB1 level, but for those who don't, almost all of them end up performing at an RB2 level. Only three times in the past five years has a running back tallied 1,000 or more rushing and not placed among the top 20 in fantasy scoring at the position.
That means 71 of the 74 backs with 1,000 or more rushing yards during the past five years ended up ranking among the RB1 or RB2 backs in that season. Get two backs who can post 1,000 on the ground, and you are all but assured of having quality running back production.
[h=2]Finding an RB1 or RB2 who doesn't gain 1,000 rushing yards is possible, but not easy[/h]Twenty-three of the 49 backs who ranked as RB2s during the past five years gained 1,000 or more rushing yards. Accounting for the 48 RB1s who hit or exceeded 1,000 yards, that means 1,000-yard backs produced 71 of the 100 RB1/RB2-caliber seasons in that time frame. This shows it is possible for a back to reach RB1 or RB2 status without 1,000 rushing yards, but it is not easy.


[h=2]Forget platoon backs or a running back by committee[/h]Another rule of thumb that fantasy owners should heed when searching for a 1,000-yard back is that it takes at least 200 carries to gain 1,000 rushing yards.
To get an idea of just how difficult it is to reach that yardage total without 200 or more carries, consider this: According to ESPN Stats & Information, only two times since the 2001 season has a running back posted 1,000 or more rushing yards on fewer than 200 carries.
This fact becomes an even more powerful draft day tool when noting that last season, the average NFL team handed the ball to a running back 367 times. If that carry level is divided equally among backs in a platoon or running-back-by-committee backfield, it quickly falls below the all-important 200-carry mark.
The takeaway here is quite simple: Platoon or committee backs are highly unlikely to get enough carries to assure them of RB1 or RB2 status. Consider them as RB3 candidates, and the risk-reward ratio should pay off.
Using the 1,000-yard milestone should take care of most team's RB1 and RB2 roster needs. For the other roster spots, consider this final factor.
[h=2]Receiving production equals or trumps goal-line production[/h]Goal-line production often gets a lot of attention as a top value-adding factor, but pass catching should actually get equal or higher billing in this area.
Last season, running backs in standard scoring leagues posted an average of 16 fantasy points on plays (rushing or passing) that began at or inside the opposing team's 5-yard line. By contrast, running backs also tallied an average of 16 points on passing plays in standard scoring leagues.
That indicates the value of these two factors is equal in standard leagues, but there is a significant difference when comparing their worth in PPR leagues. Running backs scored an average of 17 points on goal-line plays in PPR leagues, but averaged 35 points on passing plays in that format.
This indicates fantasy owners in standard leagues would benefit from paying equal attention to receptions as goal-line production, but PPR league owners should consider goal-line production a distant second to receptions.

Players don't overwhelmingly perform better in contract years

Christopher Harris, Fantasy

This summer has turned into Crutch Fest 2015.

I started by reminiscing about my inaugural crutch arguments from back in the day. Then I looked into whether early-round rookies are guaranteed playing timeand whether significant investments in offensive linemen tend to make skill players better.

Then I opened the conversation on Twitter and Facebook, asking you for your least favorite "dumb" arguments that you hear analysts and other fans make. The people have spoken.
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Barf, indeed! By far the most popular answer -- the crutch argument you most want to see debunked -- is the supposed contract-year phenomenon. And while other writers have inspected the veracity of this dubious-sounding assertion ("He's got more to play for, so he can get his big payday"), I still see and hear it invoked by noncritical thinkers inside and outside the NFL.</center>
So let's dig in. Do skill players entering the final year of their contract, and thus heading for unrestricted free agency, tend to see their performances increase? For this research project, I sliced and diced a lot of data and tried to be as fair as possible. I removed any impending free agent who missed a significant portion of his walk year because of injury or holdout. I also didn't include skill position players who'd mostly been fantasy nonfactors to that point in their careers, even if they would later emerge as important players. At the same time, I did include players like Justin Forsett circa 2014, who had never done much for fantasy prior to last season but then exploded onto the scene. If anything, my data is weighted in favor of the contract-year phenomenon being a real thing.

I looked at data over the past five seasons, and my universe of relevant players broke down like this: five healthy quarterbacks who were significant for fantasy and nevertheless entered a season aware that they would be free agents (Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Vince Young and Alex Smith twice); 27 running backs; 39 wide receivers; and 13 tight ends.

I'll use the quarterbacks to introduce my methodology. Of the five I just mentioned, three generally improved in their contract seasons and the other two either regressed or stayed roughly the same. I reached this conclusion by comparing these quarterbacks' two-year average performance prior to their contract seasons -- both in fantasy points and in passing yardage -- with their contract-year performance:
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	CONTRACT YEAR	FANTASY POINT AVG., 2 YEARS PRIOR	CONTRACT-YEAR FANTASY POINTS	INCREASE/DECREASE	PASS YARD AVG., 2 YEARS PRIOR	CONTRACT-YEAR PASS YARDS	INCREASE/DECREASE
Alex Smith	2010	138.0	129	-9	2350	2370	+20
Vince Young	2010	69.0	81	+12	1049	1255	+206
Alex Smith	2011	133.5	201	+67.5	2360	3144	+784
Joe Flacco	2012	208.0	227	+19	3616	3817	+201
Jay Cutler	2013	151.0	160	+9	2676	2621	-55

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</aside>As you can see, Smith's performance in 2011 stands out here; the others aren't particularly scintillating, certainly not to the point where you'd hoot and holler about a contract-year phenomenon.
For the other skill positions, I don't have the space here to list every player, but I do have larger sample sizes than for the quarterbacks, which can help us draw firmer conclusions. Once again, I compared each impending free agent's contract-year performance to his two-year average prior to the contract year:
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	AVG. FANTASY POINT CONTRACT-YEAR CHANGE	NO. OF CONTRACT-YEAR RISERS	NO. OF CONTRACT-YEAR FALLERS	AVG. YARDAGE CONTRACT-YEAR CHANGE	NO. OF CONTRACT-YEAR RISERS	NO. OF CONTRACT-YEAR FALLERS
RB	+15.6	14	13	+141.4	18	9
WR	+11.3	22	17	+78.0	21	18
TE	+7.2	7	6	-30.7	5	8

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</aside>The significant takeaway from this chart isn't so much the slight average increases in fantasy points and total scrimmage yardage. Those averages are skewed by a few players who, like Forsett in 2014, exploded in their walk years. I'm thinking of guys like Pierre Garcon (2011), Knowshon Moreno (2013), Julian Edelman (2013) and DeMarco Murray (2014).
No, it's more significant that there are just about as many contract-year "fallers" as "risers." And again, I must emphasize, I eliminated upward of 50 other skill position players over the past five years who played as impending free agents but simply weren't owned by many fantasy teams. Sorry, Darrius Heyward-Bey circa 2013. You didn't factor here.
As a final step in this analysis, I wondered whether there were perhaps different rules for the rare "super-elite" fantasy players who make it to their walk years. Let's look at the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who averaged at least 10 fantasy points per game the two seasons before their contract year and how they subsequently fared in their walk season:
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	CONTRACT YEAR	FANTASY POINT AVG., 2 YEARS PRIOR	CONTRACT-YEAR FANTASY POINTS	INCREASE-DECREASE
Cedric Benson	2011	160.5	137	-23.5
Reggie Wayne	2011	169.5	113	-56.5
Steven Jackson	2012	176.0	160	-16
Ahmad Bradshaw	2012	162.5	143	-19.5
Dwayne Bowe	2012	168.5	91	-77.5
Mike Wallace	2012	172.0	123	-49
Wes Welker	2012	163.5	163	-0.5
Jimmy Graham	2013	165.5	211	45.5
Frank Gore	2014	178.0	135	-43
Dez Bryant	2014	197.5	221	23.5
Demaryius Thomas	2014	205.5	223	17.5

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</aside>Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas were awesome last season. But don't they look like the exception rather than the rule among established fantasy studs in contract years?
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</article>I think the reason this crutch argument gets under my (and perhaps your) skin is that it's one step away from pop psychology. It purports to explain the psyche of the NFL player and contends that although these elite professional athletes have had to scrap and work and fight to get to the pinnacle of their sport, something has been missing from their motivation, something that can be ignited by a possible payday. While I have no doubt that there are some athletes to whom this explanation applies, I think the majority of NFL players are competitive freaks who know that they're one underperforming season away from the unemployment line. I file the foolishness of this crutch argument right next to the one that says Player X "plays hard." They all play hard, don't they? It's kind of a hard game.
I think year-to-year variance in fantasy performance correlates much more closely to things like age, experience and coaches' trust, to say nothing of health and raw ability. While the numbers I've reported here may indicate a gentle upward drift in the average performance of good players in contract years, there are way too many players whose performances drop off to proclaim any kind of real victory. Thus "he's going into a contract year" is just another one of those things people say when they're trying to bamboozle you with a litany of reasons they like 2015 impending free agents like T.Y. Hilton, Alfred Morris, Philip Rivers, Lamar Miller and many others. And I'm not saying you shouldn't like those players. I'm just saying the reason you like them shouldn't be their contract status.

[h=1]Five basic rules of drafting in fantasy football[/h]Field Yates, ESPN Insider


The chat area at the bottom of ESPN Fantasy draft rooms often swings to one side of the pendulum or the other: busy with constant chatter amongst friends and league mates, often of the playful banter variety. The other side of the spectrum is a quiet chat room, reserved for just a comment or two throughout the duration of the draft. Sometimes the impetus for those select comments in the latter scenario is a draft pick so inexplicably ill advised that a fellow league member cannot help him or herself but to rib the person who made the pick with something along the lines of: "You're kidding, right?"


Been there. We all have our moments. Whether it's the running back who fell down the depth chart in the offseason or the wide receiver who got injured or -- worst of all -- the guy who is an unsigned free agent without a team, we all have made picks along the way that we wish we had a mulligan on.


But even if you avoid one of those embarrassing drafting faux pas, the reality is building a fantasy football team through the draft process is an inexact science. Who, exactly, had Le'Veon Bell and Odell Beckham Jr. as superstar picks for 2014 at around this time last year? That's right, virtually no one, and that's not a jab at prognosticators. It's just the truth: players emerge -- or decline -- even when we aren't expecting it. So, drafting will never be algorithmic as it relates to player output.


All that being said, here's a look at five starting-point rules to guide you through your draft.


1. Never enough good running backs: Let's start here. There's no more valuable commodity at the outset of a fantasy season than a starting running back. The reason? Supply and demand. There were just 30 running backs who tallied 100 total points in standard scoring in the 2014 season. Among wide receivers, that number ballooned to 41. That's not to devalue the position of receiver, but the fact of that matter is that there is, on average, a larger pool of wide receiver fish out there. The decision of drafting a running back versus another position early is even more pertinent when contemplating snagging your starting QB. There were 14 quarterbacks who scored 240 points last year (which would be an average of 15 per game). That means every player in a 10- or 12-team league has a reliable quarterback at his or her disposal. It's one thing if Aaron Rodgers slips to you at the top of the third round, but more often than not, the prudent play is being willing to take running backs early and often. Factoring in byes and trade proposals, it's rarely a bad problem when you have a capable back on your bench.

2. It's OK to be late to the QB train: Colts quarterback Andrew Luck looks primed for another outstanding season, perhaps the best among any NFL quarterback in 2015. If he winds up on my fantasy roster, I'm happy. But I'm also not drafting him where he is currently going, as his average draft position at the time of this writing is 16.0. Hello! Luck was brilliant in 2014, finishing with nine games of 20 or more points and just one in single digits. Tony Romo, however, was not too shabby himself, finishing with seven games north of 20 points and just two south of 10. Romo's ADP, meanwhile, is 79.5 right now, ninth among quarterbacks. The two running backs bracketing Luck right now in terms of ADP are LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Hill. The two backs bracketing Romo are Isaiah Crowell and Chris Ivory. Whereas you can rest easy with a QB-RB duo of Romo and McCoy/Hill, a Luck plus Ivory/Crowell is less certain (on the running back front, of course).


3. Gronk or bust at TE early: This rule stacks up both in concept and through empirical evidence. Despite playing just 15 games last season -- in four of which he was a part-time player as he worked his way back from injury -- Rob Gronkowski finished with 30 more points than any other tight end. He offers the highest ceiling and, frankly, the highest floor. He had just two games (note: He didn't play a snap in Week 17, which is often a non-playing week in fantasy leagues) when he didn't manage at least seven fantasy points. The five tight ends who finished directly behind him had at least seven games apiece with south of seven fantasy points. He also fits as the one tight end who has a combination of steady quarterback play matched by his role as the focal point of his team's offense (even if Tom Brady's four-game suspension holds up). If it's not Gronk early, I have no problem snagging Zach Ertz -- with a current ADP of 106.4 -- late. The tight end position also tends to lend itself to a reasonable allotment of waiver-wire adds during the season.


4. Defenses go in the final two rounds ... no sooner: OK, it's not that you aren't capable of selecting a D/ST earlier than Round 15, but the logic is misrepresented. The Seahawks have a current ADP of 57.2. Am I confident the Seahawks will finish as one of the top five defenses this season? I am. But taking a defense that finished with 150 total points last season some seven plus rounds ahead of any other defense, for example, is shortsighted. Defenses in fantasy win you weeks with touchdowns. The Eagles, who were far from a good defense in 2014 in "real" football, were second among defenses with 153 fantasy points by dint of 11 combined return touchdowns. Eleven. And even 11 return touchdowns wasn't enough for them to lead the league in scoring. The next person you find who forecasted a historic start to the season for Philly's D in 2014 will be the first. The problem with D/STs is that even the very best rarely turn out to be weekly difference-makers and, truth be told, it's hard to sniff out precisely which will be that good. Be patient before picking yours and stay active on the waiver wire; this is the best position in fantasy to stream.


5. Play the lottery: Regardless of which players you take with your early-round picks, the justification is usually the same: an upside player you will count on to start -- and perform well -- every week. But there comes a point -- and you'll know it when you get there -- when the pool of available players becomes less inspiring. It's not that Saints receiver Marques Colston or Chargers wideout Malcom Floyd can't be a serviceable lineup member from time to time, but the ceiling looks to be capped and the floor is low. So, roll the dice every once in a while. Maybe you're hopeful that Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks' shifty third-round pick out of Kansas State, can become what the team had hoped Percy Harvin would be when they traded for him. Or maybe you're convinced that Cordarrelle Patterson will eventually put it all together and maximize his natural talents (I'm not counting on this, but you never know). Stash a few guys on your roster who have enough upside based on talent alone that perhaps, just maybe, they'll burst out onto the scene. All those forward-thinking drafters who took a flier on a wide receiver who hardly saw the field in training camp because of injury (Beckham) were rewarded handsomely for their willingness to think big and roll the dice on an upside guy.

Eli Manning could be a top-5 fantasy QB

KC Joyner, NFL Insider


The upper-tier fantasy football quarterbacks in 2015 look to be the usual candidates, such as Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning.
One name that might never find its way on to that list is Eli Manning. He ranked 10th in fantasy points among QBs last season, but given his current average draft position (ADP) of 13th among quarterbacks, Manning isn't even being perceived as a low-tier QB1 in 10-team leagues.

There are many reasons to think that Manning can repeat last year's fantasy point performance, and upon closer examination, there is also a strong case to be made that Manning will finish among the top five in quarterback scoring this season.

His upside potential revolves around five elements.

The Giants are now a pass-first team
Prior to the 2014 campaign, Manning had never attempted more than 600 passes. That he made it over that mark (601) is a sign in the pass-heavy direction, but the attempts bar could be even higher in 2015.
The reason this can be said is from Weeks 9 through 17, Manning had the most pass attempts per game (41.8). Only Drew Brees (40.44) and Matt Ryan (40.38) were in his neighborhood.
This increase of passes coincided with the midseason development of Odell Beckham Jr. If Manning has Beckham for an entire season rather than the 12 games Beckham was in the lineup last season, it would not be a surprise to see Manning top the 600-pass attempt mark again in 2015.
There is potential for significant improvement in vertical and stretch vertical production
Vertical pass production (points scored on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) is a key to being a top-flight fantasy quarterback.
Manning posted quality numbers here last season, as his 95 vertical passing points ranked ninth among quarterbacks, but he did not fare nearly as well in the stretch vertical pass area (which measures production on throws 20 or more yards downfield). Manning's 23 points there ranked tied for 28th and placed him behind mediocre passers such as Zach Mettenberger (26) and Austin Davis(24).
Having pointed this out, 22 of Manning's points in the stretch vertical category were posted in the aforementioned dominant Weeks 9-17 time frame. If Manning and Beckham can come anywhere close to last year's per-game stretch vertical production level in Weeks 9-17 and apply that to a full season, it will likely add another 15-20 points to Manning's fantasy point total.
A sea change in running back pass-receiving production


The Giants looked to Rashad Jennings to help them upgrade their performance in pass receiving production by running backs. That effort failed, as Manning tallied only 12 fantasy points on throws to running backs. That total ranked tied for 27th in the league and is a primary reason the Giants acquiredShane Vereen.

This addition could end up as an even bigger upgrade than Manning's downfield numbers, as Vereen racked up 56 points on passing plays last season. If Vereen were to post only half of that amount for the Giants, it would give Manning another 16 fantasy points. If Vereen were to equal his total from last season, it could add as many as 40 or more points to Manning's fantasy bottom line.

Manning has his bad decision rate (BDR) in check
It seems counterintuitive that Manning would throw more passes last season than he has ever thrown in a season and yet wind up with his second-lowest full-season interception total (14) and second-lowest interception rate (2.3 percent) of his career.
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</article>One main factor in this is Manning has his bad decision rate (BDR) in check. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Manning has often ranked in the bottom third of the league in this category in his career, but last season his 1.4 percent BDR ranked tied for 18th. Manning remained consistent here even as his attempt volume skyrocketed, as his 1.5 percent BDR in Weeks 9-17 nearly matched his season total. This improvement in decision-making is another reason the Giants will be more comfortable in letting Manning air the ball out.
A highly favorable schedule
All of the above elements already point toward a career year for Manning, but he also has the benefit of facing a slew of weak defenses. According to a schedule analysis I did, Manning has the most favorable set of matchups of any quarterback in the league. A ranking of this nature can change depending on how defenses progress and regress during the season, but to start off on such a positive note in this area pretty much assures that Manning will benefit to some extent from the Giants' schedule.
Bottom line

Manning ranked sixth in quarterback fantasy points from Weeks 9-17 and was only 33 points away from a top-five fantasy quarterback ranking for the course of the entire season. Add the production upgrades he could see via downfield passing and throws to running backs to a low interception rate and a fairly easy schedule, and it should mean he closes that 33-point gap. In other words, don't be surprised if Eli Manning claims a spot among the top five fantasy quarterbacks in the 2015 season.

[h=1]Quarterback rankings by tiers[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer

Ranking fantasy football options in tiers before a draft or auction makes perfect sense, because our game is generally about statistics being provided via value, and supply versus demand plays a critical role there. If you’re watching the players come off the board in the fourth round of a draft and thinking about where to turn for your next selection, going with a tiered system can help when there are precious moments to decide, tracking how much similar value and depth per position is left and whether it’s time to get that quarterback or continue piling on the running backs.
For example, in the myriad drafts I’ve already participated in -- yeah, it’s only July, but bear with me, this is what I do! -- I’ve found myself debating running backs versus wide receivers with pretty much each one of my first five or six picks. I always wait on quarterbacks, and everyone loves tight end Rob Gronkowski, but he’s just not my guy. Using a tiered system allows me to further clarify if, according to my own rankings, choosing the final running back of a modest tier (like the Miami Dolphins’ Lamar Miller) is better than one of the several fourth-round wide receivers in that space. Most likely I’d choose Miller.
Alas, using my rankings, here are my initial tiers at quarterback. In the weeks ahead, we’ll move on to running back, wide receiver and the position Gronkowski owns. This is a good way to determine strengths and weaknesses at the positions as we evaluate depth, whether overpaying for the last guy in a tier is worth it and, of course, it’s recommended you determine your rankings and tiers well in advance of that 30-second time frame when a spot-on decision must be made.
Tier 1: Third-round value
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Yep, you can go ahead and choose a quarterback in the first round if you like. After all, they do score the most points. But lots of quarterbacks score lots of points, so I’ll wait another seven or eight rounds before looking at the position, unless of course the draft doesn’t quite match my tiered system. I mean, let’s not get crazy here. If all the decent starters are off the board, I’ll revise my strategy. Nevertheless, just like previous seasons, my first quarterback shows up just outside my overall top 20, and I feel just awesome about it. And this year, like most years, it’s Rodgers. He’s finished as a top-2 fantasy quarterback in six of seven seasons. The lone time he didn’t, he had broken his collarbone. Good excuse, I believe.
2. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Oh, and it’s nice to have Luck on your side as well. If not for the brutal game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, he would have finished as the top scorer in fantasy. He’s still great. This ends the top tier.
Tier 2: Fourth round
3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: Last year’s first-rounder -- well, I didn’t rank him that way, that’s for sure -- was doing fine for a while until age/injury caught up to him. Then he was awful. Seriously, from Week 12 on, Kyle Orton and Alex Smith scored more fantasy points. Think about that. That said, I trust Manning is now healthy, he’s blessed with weapons and will be productive for all 16 games, but to be honest, I’m probably not taking him anyway.
4. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: I don’t see anything to worry about here. He throws. He runs. He has Jimmy Graham now. It’s all good.
Tier 3: Sixth round


5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: He throws. He doesn’t run. And he doesn’t have Jimmy Graham anymore. And I don’t appear to be too concerned. Brees throws so much, I expect him to create new heroes. Don’t worry, it’s not gonna be the Mark Ingram/C.J. Spiller show. They’ll throw.
6. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons:Ryan might not seem like he belongs in the conversation with Brees, but he’s got a major weapon in Julio Jones and a strong track record as well. Brees and Ryan finished Nos. 6-7 in standard scoring among quarterbacks a year ago.
7. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Coming off a rough season when he was clearly, obviously not 100 percent, but let’s not forget the three seasons he was among the top four fantasy quarterbacks. Why can’t he return to that level? You know he’ll be back to running.
Tier 4: Seventh round
8. Tom Brady, New England Patriots: He’s all alone, as if that wasn’t already clear. Granted, no other quarterback is suspended for four games, either, though that could change. I see great value in Brady slipping to the later rounds, but then again, I don’t always draft a backup in the first place. There’s depth. Select Brady and you need a backup for September (well, most likely).
Tier 5: 10th round
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: No real worries about Big Ben, though I think it’s certainly fair to note that 12 of his 32 touchdown passes came in one glorious two-week stretch in which he wasn’t in a ton of fantasy lineups. He was still good the other weeks, just not awesome.
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Stop hating on a guy who produces top-10 quarterback numbers annually.
11. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: Betcha didn’t guess he was fantasy’s No. 9 quarterback last season. I don’t see him regressing much, if at all, but the lack of name value will probably make him available after a bunch of the names to follow. That’s when you pounce!
12. Eli Manning, New York Giants: Maybe you’ve heard, but he’s got this ultra-athletic wide receiver to throw to, a guy who makes acrobatic, one-handed grabs. Of course, this other Manning was No. 10 among quarterbacks in 2014, so even I’m selling him a bit short.
13. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: I’d say Rivers is the last of the quarterbacks I’d feel truly comfortable with as my starter in a standard, 10-team format. That’s critical when tracking what other teams are doing and what’s left to draft.
Tier 6: 11th round
14. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: One of last season’s prime disappointments at the position, and it can’t all be blamed on the occasional absence of Calvin Johnson. When Stafford’s volume of passes slips, it’s a problem. Still, this is a reasonable starter for shallow leagues, if you must.
15. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers: So talented, but not the most consistent fellow out there, and incredibly, he threw for more than two touchdowns in only one contest last season. Still, he runs, and even in the bad weeks, he offers something.

Tier 7: 13th round


16. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: He was a top-10 quarterback in the games he participated in last season, but alas, another torn ACL took care of that. Wouldn’t surprise me if he was a top-10 guy, but don’t expect it.
17. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears:Ah, if only interceptions didn’t count. Hey, check your league rules. They don’t in some leagues. Cutler’s not nearly as awful as most believe, but it’s tough to rely on him week to week. Sometimes it’s the obviously friendly matchups that trip him up.
18. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: Bridgewater finished his rookie season strong, and now that running back Adrian Peterson has resumed his career, the theory goes that things will be far easier for the quarterback. It’s fair, but I can’t exalt him too much.
Tier 8: 15th round
19. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Time for the rookies! Look, at this point, it’s worth taking chances on upside picks. You’re gonna sit Rodgers, Luck and most top-10 fellows in precisely one week anyway. Winston could be great, even as a rookie.
20. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles: Perhaps I’ve rated him worse than most others considering Philly’s high-volume offense, but based on track record, we’ll probably be seeing Mark Sanchez in a game or two and hopefully not 12. I don’t doubt Bradford’s talent, however, and if it’s a two-QB format, no way I’d choose Winston before him.
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets: He’s not so bad. Perhaps that’s faint praise, but he’s flirted with top-10 status in the past and the Jets have provided him weapons. That said, the next guy possesses considerably more upside.
Tier 9: Undrafted
22. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: Who knows? I’m serious. Who really knows?
23. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs: With him, we do know. He doesn’t throw the ball downfield a whole lot, and the addition of Jeremy Maclin doesn’t change things enough. Smith avoids interceptions and can run, which is nice and has made him a reasonable fantasy starter at times, but he’s waiver-wire material.
24. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: Hard to believe he was a top-5 fantasy QB in 2013, but it’s true. Now it seems he’s close to getting run outta town.
25. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: A great fantasy quarterback for January. Not so much in the months preceding that.
26. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders: In fairness, he was just a rookie and didn’t have a whole lot of weapons. Now he’s got Amari Cooper. Carr’s someone I’d target in a two-QB format, actually.
27. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: As with Carr, he lacked experience and weaponry. Now, in theory, he has that. Still seems a bit of a long shot.
28. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Sorry, I just don’t believe, as this ranking shows. It’s not 2012 anymore.
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</article>29. Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams: Yeah, I’m well aware of what he did in Philadelphia two seasons ago, but last season was a better read on who he is, unfortunately.
30. Matt Cassel, Buffalo Bills: Someone has to start, and apparently the Bills don’t want it to be EJ Manuel. At least not yet.
31. Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans: Insert Brian Hoyer’s name here, if you like. Doesn’t much matter.
32. Josh McCown, Cleveland Browns: Over/under on when Johnny Manziel is summoned to save the day? I’ll say Week 6 against Peyton Manning and Denver. Because why not.

Next week, we tier up the running backs!

[h=1]Fantasy wide receiver rankings by tiers[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

My annual strategy thoughts on how to deal with the quarterback, running back, tight end, team defense and kicker spots in fantasy football don’t seem to alter much, but when it comes to wide receiver, however, anything goes. I could start a draft with three receivers out of four picks, or be patient and wait. There’s obviously excellent depth at wide receiver, perhaps more than ever in the top tiers, but also the middle, and pretty much toward the end as well. There will be intriguing wide receivers who will not get selected in ESPN standard formats.
This is the third of four installments in our series on tiered systems, why they matter and how to both prepare and gain from them in your drafts and auctions this season. As noted in prior weeks with QB and RB, the most important thing is to handle the business well in advance of when you’ll need it, then tweak the results. Plan well and you’ll know where the drop-offs are and who’s a better team fit. Use your own rankings and those from ESPN and myself as a guide, though maybe you don’t feel the same way I do about a player. It’s your team, after all!
Tier 1: Late first-round/early second-round value
1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers: Nobody is more consistent from week to week, and he was last year’s top player in PPR formats. I thought about making him his own tier. No, really.
2. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: Pretend Peyton Manning retired tomorrow. Would he be top-10? Nope. But Peyton’s still around! Don’t worry!
3. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: I generally don’t buy into motivation factor, but this guy has got it with the way last season ended.
Tier 2: Second round
4. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers: Nothing to worry about here. Aaron Rodgers will make sure of it.
5. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Capable of an Antonio Brown-like season soon.
6. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: You don’t have to own his quarterback. Green is special.
7. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants: He’s really good and he knows it. Only concern, and hopefully it’s a minor one, is health.


8. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: He has missed games each of the past two seasons, thus the fall from top of the position rankings to this, though it’s still good. It’s not unreasonable to hope for another 100-catch, 16-game season.
9. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: There’s wide receiver change around him, but nothing should alter for him. Again, the Jay Cutler interceptions don’t get charged to Jeffery.
Tier 3: Third round
10. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos: Breakout season in Denver was no real surprise. He should do it again, too.
11. Randall Cobb, Packers: Made a wise decision sticking around Wisconsin.
12. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Lots of depth for Andrew Luck to throw to, but Hilton should be tops.
Tier 4: Fourth round
13. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, it’s a rookie quarterback, but still an upgrade over last season. Anything would be. And Evans scored 12 touchdowns anyway!
14. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans: He could use a quarterback upgrade, too. Still, he can improve on his sophomore season, in which he caught 76 passes for 1,210 yards.
15. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers: Pretty tough to deal with near the goal line, as Cam Newton figured out quickly.
16. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: People want to drop him from the top 20 because Tom Brady won’t play the first month, but what if Jimmy Garoppolo has mad game? He could be very good.
17. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints: The beneficiary of the Jimmy Graham trade, in theory. He would have had a big rookie year without the thumb injury.
18. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills: Future top-10 wide receiver, even in Buffalo. They’ll get a QB at some point.

Tier 5: Fifth round



19. Jordan Matthews,Philadelphia Eagles: Solid as a rookie, he’s in the right place to really break out. Will be interesting to see where he lines up.
20. Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers: Obviously I’m expecting Year 3 to be more like Year 1 than Year 2.
21. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: The lack of touchdowns was a bit fluky. Could easily have been No. 7 or 8. Don’t ignore him.
Tier 6: Sixth round
22. Andre Johnson, Colts: Don’t listen to those who tell you he’s too old. He’s reborn with Luck at QB.
23. Brandon Marshall, New York Jets: He’s not too old, either, but he sure doesn’t have Luck at QB. Just remember how talented he is.
24. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: I happen to believe Derek Carr can be a usable quarterback, actually. Cooper is just a wonderful talent.
25. DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: Finds a way to make big plays, but as expected, couldn’t come close to the 82 receptions from his walk year in Philly. Can’t do that in D.C.
Tier 7: Seventh round
26. Kevin White, Bears: Another wonderfully athletic rookie, but let’s not assume last year’s success for first-year wide receivers will be duplicated. Still, White will be busy and productive, if he can overcome his current injury.
27. Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater does throw a nice deep ball, and Wallace can still get downfield and catch it.
28. Nelson Agholor, Eagles: I think he’s underrated. Why should we assume his teammate, Matthews, is the No. 1 wide receiver, just because he played last season?
Tier 8: Eighth round
29. Golden Tate, Lions: Even if Megatron plays every game, frankly.
30. Eric Decker, Jets: OK, it might be tough for two Jets wide receivers to be top-30, but dare to dream.
31. Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs: Watch him score a touchdown in the first game. Last year, famously, Chiefs wide receivers scored nary a touchdown. Hard to believe.
32. Brandon LaFell, Patriots: Better than most realize. And Tom Brady should play the other 12 games.
33. Martavis Bryant, Steelers: The reason for concern is obvious, that he can’t possibly replicate the reception-to-touchdown ratio. But why can’t he double the reception total and still score eight times?
Tier 9: Ninth round

34. Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins: PPR gold. Slot guy needs to up the yardage total a bit.


35. Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars: One of my breakout options. He needs to stay healthy, and Blake Bortles needs better protection.
36. Charles Johnson, Vikings:Another sleeper of sorts, he’s a better all-around receiver than Wallace.
37. Torrey Smith, San Francisco 49ers: Leaves Joe Flacco for Colin Kaepernick. Not sure it’s gonna matter.
Tier 10: 10th round
38. Roddy White, Falcons: Solid in 2014, but knee problems persist. I ranked him better a month ago.
39. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: Another potential Hall of Famer who’s having issues staying on the field. Let’s see if Carson Palmer gets him 130 targets.
40. Marques Colston, Saints: Well past his prime, but he still has Drew Brees. Could see 75 catches one more time.
41. Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens: Upside rookie replaces Torrey Smith and should get deep for Flacco. Don’t expect major volume.
42. DeVante Parker, Dolphins: Foot issues could set him back, but there’s major upside. Looking at the next tier, I’d rather take the chance here.
Tier 11: 11th round
43. Michael Floyd, Cardinals: Well, he didn’t exactly emerge in 2014 as expected. There’s still time.
44. Steve Smith, Ravens: Was awesome the first month of the season. Then he wasn’t. And there’s no Carolina Panthers game on this season’s schedule.
45. Cecil Shorts, Texans: New home for him, potential relevance if he can stay healthy. Of course, we’re all day-to-day.
46. Anquan Boldin, 49ers: Easy to forget about him, but topped 1,000 yards receiving again.
47. Malcom Floyd, Chargers: He actually played in all 16 games, though the other numbers weren’t as impressive.
48. Cody Latimer, Broncos: Speculative pick in case you think a third Broncos wide receiver can be really relevant. Depending on how C.J. Andersondoes and who plays tight end, it’s possible.
Tier 12: 12th round

49. Davante Adams, Packers: See Latimer. Basically needs an injury to really emerge.


50. John Brown, Cardinals: He might not need an injury to really emerge. Brown gets deep and his targets should rise.
51. Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams:Finally, a Ram. I get the feeling the Rams want Nick Foles handing the football off to Todd Gurley a lot.
52. Victor Cruz, Giants: Welcome back! Odell has taken your place, mostly.
53. Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans: Finally, a Titan! Wright caught 94 passes two seasons ago, and he’s capable of moving up this list quickly.
54. Terrance Williams, Cowboys: Kind of like Martavis Bryant, sans the upside. Let’s not assume the touchdowns continue.
55. Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans: Maybe Marcus Mariota will be great right away.
Tier 13: 13th round
56. Pierre Garcon, Redskins: Maybe Robert Griffin III will be grea … nah, I can’t finish that sentence.
57. Dwayne Bowe, Cleveland Browns: Chances are good he’ll be looking back at Alex Smith more fondly than he ever expected. Like a Hall of Famer.
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</article>58. Percy Harvin, Bills: I refuse to buy in and can’t understand why so many others love him. It’s not just sketchy health. It’s a lack of production when healthy.
59. Michael Crabtree, Raiders: Switching sides by the bay, but hard to tell what he’s got left.
60. Nick Toon, Saints: Sleeper alert. Hey, he could start. and it’s Brees at QB. And Cooks isn’t exactly a guarantee.
61. Marqise Lee, Jaguars: Another starter, probably, and a sleeper. It’s up to Bortles, really.
62. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks: Yeah, Russell Wilson doesn’t throw the ball a ton, and you might have heard the franchise traded for a tight end.

Tier 14: 14th round and later -- Marvin Jones, Bengals; Donte Moncrief, Colts; Cole Beasley, Cowboys; Rueben Randle, Giants; Tyler Lockett, Seahawks;Devin Funchess, Panthers; Eddie Royal, Bears; Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings;Kenny Britt, Rams; Rod Streater, Raiders; Greg Jennings, Dolphins; Stevie Johnson, Chargers; Allen Hurns, Jaguars; Brian Hartline, Browns; Jarius Wright, Vikings; Andrew Hawkins, Browns; Riley Cooper, Eagles; Justin Hunter, Titans; Mohamed Sanu, Bengals.

[h=1]Running back rankings by tiers[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Time to talk about running backs! When pondering a tiered system -- and you should be pondering this, because it's a key part of draft preparation -- this is the prime position where it makes the most sense to rank the running backs and decide how much of a difference there is between sections. After all, not that it was ever a major challenge to place running backs into tiers to start with, but these days, with so few safe, reliable and consistent options at our disposal, it seems as if the position provides more tears than tiers to fantasy owners.
With the quarterback position having been covered in this space last week, we move on to running backs, a position that no longer dominates the entire first round as it used to. For those new to what a tiered system brings, check out thequarterback rankings blog. As always, your own drafting strategy might differ, but having a strong running back base can really set a fantasy team apart, so don’t ignore the position, as ugly as it might be after a few rounds.
Tier 1: Top-of-first-round value
1. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers: For perspective, I ranked him first even before his suspension was recently reduced from three games to two. There’s nobody better to rely on for production and, trust me, you can live without him for the first two games.
2. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers: The word many use for him is "safe," but that’s selling him a bit short. Lacy puts up numbers, good enough to rank first overall. Sure, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the face of this elite offense, but Lacy is special too.
3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs certainly didn’t appear to overwork him last season, but the yards and touchdowns remained. Trust me, it’s almost better this way. If he got 350 touches, he’d probably get hurt, and that helps nobody except Knile Davis.
4. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: Yeah, he’s approaching 30 years old, but do his numbers look like they’re sliding? They look fine to me. Still, I wouldn’t draft him in this spot in a dynasty format. The end could come quickly. For now, Skittles for everyone!
5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: If you wish to select him first overall, just like last season, go for it. I’m still more concerned than most, I suppose, thanks to his age and many, many career touches, but that said, he’s my No. 5 player. I’m clearly not all that concerned.
Tier 2: First round
6. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: The record holder for most receptions in a season by a running back, let’s acknowledge he’s trending toward being a third-down back, but it’s not happening yet. He’s still extremely productive.
7. C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos: This might seem like a generous rank, but he was fantasy’s top running back the final five weeks last season, and the skills and elite offense remain. Sure, now quarterback Peyton Manning is healthy and he’ll be throwing a ton, but that doesn’t hurt Anderson as much as one thinks.
8. Arian Foster, Houston Texans: He’s better than you think, and that’s even knowing he’s not likely to suit up and finish all 16 games.
Tier 3: Second round
9. DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles: Moves on to NFC East rival Philly from Dallas, where the change in offensive line and quarterback could be balanced by the volume of offensive plays. But Dallas didn’t have Ryan Mathewsand Darren Sproles to compete for touches.
10. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills: Even if we assume McCoy still has a lot left, leaving Philly for Buffalo has to be accounted for. And Fred Jackson is better than many realize, and not done yet.
11. Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals: Emerging star should be on the sideline for many third downs, but he’ll do major damage when he’s in the game. This is not a true time share.
Tier 4: Third round


12. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins: Don’t believe talk he’ll suddenly catch a lot of passes. He’s hauled in 37 total in three seasons. That’s like three weeks for Forte. The rushing numbers are legit enough, but I’m not sure anyone actually targets Morris in fantasy, either.
13. Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens: He’s on myriad bust lists, but I’m not sure what really changes here. The Ravens will run. Forsett’s the guy, and while not particularly young for the position, his body hasn’t been abused. Why can’t he thrive again?
14. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Don’t worry, Drew Brees owners, the Saints will still throw a lot, but Ingram is an emerging power runner, albeit one not expected to handle reception duty.
15. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins: A bit like Ingram in that he’s been a bit frustrating to own and the team has another option to help with at least the pass-catching duties. Miller could be a top-10 running back or lose the job. Nothing would be too shocking.
Tier 5: Fourth round
16. Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers: The rookie from Wisconsin seems a lock for playing time and good numbers, though again, like many teams, we might not see much of him on third downs.
17. Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts: I think he can deliver one more decent season. Certainly opposing defenses will prepare more for Andrew Luck than Gore. That’s a good thing for Gore.
18. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: Gore’s former teammate projects as a star, but there’s a bit of doubt because Reggie Bush is here and the team used a fourth-round pick on South Carolina’s Mike Davis.
Tier 6: Fifth round
19. Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams: I moved him up this week as reports of pristine health to his recovering knee have surfaced. Before I thought he’d miss the first six games. Now I don’t think that. Gurley should be a star, and I’m OK with him missing the first week or two, especially because Week 1 is a meeting with Seattle.

20. Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders: What, you think the signing ofTrent Richardson endangers his playing time? LOL! Murray remains largely unproven and hardly a lock to succeed -- he boasts 99 touches from scrimmage in his career -- but I do like his chances. I don’t like Richardson’s.


21. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: I’ve purposely placed him just outside of RB2 status for 10-team formats and admit when it’s time to select him, I’m not fully on board. After all, the track record is a relative mess. I know he’s got the job to himself and did quite well the second part of 2014, but expecting disappointment from Stewart, it’s a hard habit to break.
22. Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: I’ve ranked him worse than colleagues, just a tad concerned about injuries that held him back last season, along with a speedy rookie and accomplished receiver competing for touches.
Tier 7: Sixth round
23. Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons: The rookie from Indiana should get a legit chance to start and become a safe RB2, but he’s not there yet.
24. Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals: Like the fellow next on the list, he disappointed in full-time duty and durability is a factor. But there’s no Jeremy Hill in Arizona, unless a rookie emerges.
25. Giovani Bernard, Bengals: His first two seasons look awfully similar statistically, but much more was expected in Year 2. Not so much is expected now in Year 3, with Hill on board. Move Ellington and Bernard up in PPR formats, though.
26. Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys: We’ll see how many yards he leaves on the table. I want to be positive and the offensive line couldn’t be better, but it can’t just be that easy to step in and replace what DeMarco Murray did. Be a bit cautious.
Tier 8: Seventh round
27. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: Here’s another rookie, and it’s always dangerous to rely on them initially, but Yeldon sure appears to have upside and a chance for stardom, even in this offense. He’s no Denard Robinsonor Toby Gerhart.
28. LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots: If the Patriots want him to get 1,000 yards and score 10 times, it sure could happen. But who knows what the Patriots want?
29. Rashad Jennings, New York Giants: Seems a bit overrated to me, as the backfield is crowded and the receptions probably aren’t going in his direction.
Tier 9: Eighth round
30. Ryan Mathews, Eagles: Has to be considered one of the prime handcuffs in the league due to the Philly offense, and Mathews does have multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons to his credit.
31. Chris Ivory, New York Jets: He’s not a fantasy starter, especially not in PPR formats, but consecutive 800-yard rushing seasons do give him value.
32. Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: Another crowded backfield, and it’s not exactly the best quarterback situation, either. It seems like a committee approach is pending.
33. David Johnson, Cardinals: Rookie from Northern Iowa has the size to be a three-down back, perhaps the next Jeremy Hill, and could push Ellington into the Bernard role. I could see it happening, which is why I rank Johnson better than most. By late August, Johnson could be top-25.
34. C.J. Spiller, Saints: People seem to love him every season, and do again because Brees will likely target him quite a bit. But Spiller has never topped 43 receptions in a season, for various reasons. Don’t love him too much.
Tier 10: Ninth round
35. Fred Jackson, Bills: He’s so much more productive than people realize. Yes, the Bills traded for McCoy and Jackson is not a particularly young man for the sport, but they’re not going to suddenly forget about him.
36. Ameer Abdullah, Lions: Rookie from Nebraska isn’t likely to be a three-down back due to his size, but one has to think the team will use him right away.
37. Duke Johnson, Browns: Rookie from Miami also figures to see more work on passing downs than as the team’s lead runner, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside.

Tier 11: 10th round


38. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I’ve been off the bandwagon for quite a while, but there’s no denying he could be the starter and thrive like it’s 2012 again. But I doubt it. Ah, remember that glorious afternoon in Oakland his rookie season? Good times.
39. Charles Sims, Buccaneers: I actually think Sims is more likely to have a big season than Martin, if that matters. The Buccaneers probably don’t agree, thus this ranking order.
40. Shane Vereen, Giants: He’ll catch the passes, but can’t see him playing a large role rushing the football.
41. Reggie Bush, 49ers: Ditto. See Mr. Vereen.
42. David Cobb, Tennessee Titans: Rookie from Minnesota got drafted by the right team for playing time after last year’s rookie was a disappointment.
43. Bishop Sankey, Titans: And here’s last year’s rookie. You might want to just avoid the Titans this year.
Tier 12: 11th round
44. Devonta Freeman, Falcons: Freeman appears to be ahead of the rookie Coleman on the depth chart, but most people believe the rookie will end up the top option.
45. Darren McFadden, Cowboys: Hey, if you want to go down this road again, be my guest.
46. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins: Rookie from Boise State has skills, but major knee concerns. He’s likely to at least scare Lamar Miller owners some.
47. Tre Mason, Rams: When reports on Gurley weren’t as positive, Mason looked like a nice September fill-in. As for now, he doesn’t look so appealing.
Tier 13: 12th round
48. Knile Davis, Chiefs: He sure looks like he can play, but will need an injury to Jamaal Charles to make it happen. Davis is an obvious handcuff.
49. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings: Here’s another obvious handcuff, though when he got chances last season, they sure weren’t near the goal line.
50. DeAngelo Williams, Steelers: Well, he should see touches the first two weeks, so he’s got that going for him. We begin and end the top 50 with Steelers.
Tier 14: 13th round
51. Zac Stacy, Jets: Crazier things have happened, you know. The Jets don’t have an obvious running back star and Stacy had some good times in St. Louis.
52. Roy Helu, Raiders: Mainly a third-down back who catches passes, but if the starter doesn’t stay healthy, who knows?
53. Daniel Herron, Colts: Indy's starter is not a young man, but still, Herron mainly catches passes.
54. Stevan Ridley, Jets: Once upon a time, he had game. Let’s see if he’s healthy.
55. Danny Woodhead, Chargers: Legit pass-catcher and likely third-down guy. Move him up in PPR leagues.
56. Branden Oliver, Chargers: Had his chance to shine and wasn’t special.
Tier 15: 14th round
57. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens: For those who think Forsett will fall apart, go get this guy.
58. Darren Sproles, Eagles: Even in PPR play, he didn’t do nearly what he was supposed to.
59. Terrance West, Browns: Had his chances last season, but hard to see how he gets a shot to start again.
60. Theo Riddick, Lions: Receiving option who could matter if Joique doesn’t.
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</article>61. Montee Ball, Broncos: Wow, how the mighty have fallen. Viewed as first-rounder last year. Definite sleeper, in theory.
Others: Denard Robinson, Jaguars; Chris Polk, Texans; Andre Williams, Giants; Buck Allen, Ravens; Alfred Blue, Texans; Jonas Gray, Patriots; Lance Dunbar, Cowboys; Ronnie Hillman, Broncos; James Starks, Packers; Antone Smith, Falcons; Matt Asiata, Vikings; Matt Jones, Redskins; Khiry Robinson, Saints; Ka’Deem Carey, Bears; Robert Turbin, Seahawks; Trent Richardson, Raiders; Christine Michael, Seahawks; De’Anthony Thomas, Chiefs; Josh Robinson, Colts; Bilal Powell, Jets; Marcel Reece, Raiders.

Coming up next week, it’s the many riches at the wide receiver position.

[h=1]The 'No Respect' team for the 2015 fantasy football season[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

In an endeavor as relentlessly analyzed as fantasy football, it might seem impossible for a player to not get the respect his fantasy point performance says he should.
It may seem impossible, but it isn't. In fact, one can build the core of a strong starting lineup with candidates of this caliber. We'll call this roster the "No Respect" fantasy football squad. Here's my picks for the team, along with insight as to why they should not continue to be overlooked this season.

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Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
ESPN average draft position (ADP) positional rank: 13
KC Joyner positional rank: 5
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Manning's ranking should be higher than it is, simply based on the fact that he ended last season ranked 10th in quarterback fantasy points; but, there is a strong case to be made that Manning can be a top-5 fantasy quarterback in 2015.
Key to that potential is that the Giants are now operating a pass-first offense. From Weeks 9-17 in 2014, Manning was tied with Drew Brees for the most pass attempts in the league (391). A large part of that increase was due to the development of Odell Beckham Jr. into one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. Add a full season of Beckham with the return of Victor Cruz, the addition ofShane Vereen (a superb pass-catching back) and a strong supporting cast of pass catchers, and Manning may arguably have the best receiving corps in his entire New York tenure. Put it all together, and he should be valued much higher than a mid-tier QB2.

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Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
ESPN ADP rank: 9
Joyner rank: 6
There are eight backs in front of Forte on the ESPN ADP chart:Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch,Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson


Only three backs from that group outscored Forte last season (Murray, Bell and Lynch) and only Charles outscored Forte during the past two seasons, so Forte has a history of faring well against this group.
The main arguments against Forte holding his mid- to upper-tier RB1 scoring ground are that he is getting up there in age and that the Bears might aim to turn this backfield into a split carry situation.
The latter bit of reasoning seems specious, since no running back on Chicago's roster seems capable of threatening Forte's role as the Bears' bell cow. The former is on just as unstable ground. Peterson and Lynch are in the same wear-and-tear boat as him. Murray and Foster both have injury histories that make them just as apt to miss games as the aging upper-tier running backs. Even Anderson, who is a strong candidate to lead running backs in fantasy points in 2015, could have more risk than Forte due to former durability concerns and the possibility of a split workload with Montee Ball. Forte might fall behind some of these backs due to the changes to Chicago's offense, but he should not fall behind all of them, as is currently the case in drafts.

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Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
ESPN ADP rank: 6
Joyner rank: 2
Nelson was one of only two wide receivers last season to post a double-digit total in vertical touchdown passes (scores that occurred on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His 10.5 yards per attempt (YPA) mark when facing a starting-caliber cornerback (defined as having faced 32 or more targets last season) tied Nelson with Beckham for eighth place in that category. Any durability concerns about him should have been put to rest after Nelson posted 277 targets combined during the past two seasons. He did all of this last year despite battling a painful hip injury that has now been repaired with offseason surgery.
Combine this with his being the top wide receiver on a team with the best quarterback in the NFL, and it is rather surprising to see five wideouts being taken in front of Nelson in the average ESPN draft room.

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Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
ESPN ADP rank: 27
Joyner rank: 20
It is understandable to think that Maclin will not replicate his No. 9 ranking in wide receiver fantasy points from last season. The disconnect stems from how far his point totals could drop.
If last year's wide receiver fantasy point totals are an indicator, Maclin would have to see a decline of 58 points to drop to the No. 27 spot on the wide receiver list. This could be taken as a sign that prospective fantasy owners think the Chiefs will once again throw zero touchdown passes to their wide receivers, and that will cause Maclin to lose all 10 of his scoring plays from last year.
However, Maclin is much more talented than any wide receiver Kansas City had on its roster last season, so to superimpose their shortcomings onto his 2015 fantasy prospects seems unreasonable.
The more likely touchdown receptions result for Maclin can be found in how he performed in his final three seasons in Andy Reid's Eagles offense. During that time frame, Maclin racked up 22 trips to paydirt in 44 games -- or, a touchdown every two games, on average. If Maclin can keep up that pace, he will post eight touchdowns this season, and will vie for WR2 status. He is being vastly undervalued as a WR3.

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</article>Philadelphia Eagles D/ST
ESPN ADP rank: 13
Joyner rank: 6
Consider this: Philadelphia was the top fantasy D/ST in 2014, but isn't even considered a starting-caliber D/ST in 2015.
The main reason for that drop-off is the fact that fantasy owners do not expect the Eagles to repeat the 11 touchdowns this D/ST scored last season. A regression is certainly to be expected, but according to ESPN Stats & Information, the average fantasy D/ST last season scored 20.3 points on touchdowns. If Philadelphia falls from its 66-point total on touchdowns to the par level in this category, it would still leave it as a starting D/ST candidate.
That last assessment doesn't even take into account whether the Eagles are able to make improvements in other areas. For example, Philadelphia has racked up enough ball hawks that the team felt comfortable trading cornerback Brandon Boykin to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This means Philly should be able to improve upon the 24 points this D/ST tallied last year on interceptions, a mark that ranked tied for 21st. Add in a schedule that contains a number of matchups against weak offenses (the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills andArizona Cardinals being prime on this list), and it keeps the Eagles as a strong candidate to be considered among the starting-caliber D/STs in fantasy.

[h=1]Low-risk fantasy superstars for 2015[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

The most valuable fantasy draft picks are elite players such as Le'Veon Bell,Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowski.
The issue with these players is they command an incredibly high price. If they live up to those expectations, the price is worth it, but if they fall short in any respect, the price will have been too high.
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Good alternatives to these prospects are what can be termed low-risk superstars. These players are capable of having the elite seasons that can help win a league, but they also come with a high points floor, so even if they don't hit the season-long home run, they are still going to justify their draft-day value. Getting this type of upside with low risk and low relative cost could make these players the most valuable selections in any fantasy football draft.


Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
A durable quarterback in a high-powered passing offense who has a great offensive line, one of the top running backs in the league and a dominant wide receiver who has designs on being the best in the history of the game. A lot of that description sounds exactly like Aaron Rodgers, and yet it fits Roethlisberger to a T.
This situation helped Roethlisberger rank fifth in quarterback fantasy points last season, but he is currently sixth on the ESPN quarterback ADP list and is being taken roughly 10 picks later than the fifth-ranked quarterback (Drew Brees).
Since it seems very likely that Roethlisberger can repeat his top-5 quarterback showing, he is already a value pick and thus a low-risk selection. Where his superstar status comes in is via the chance he can contend for the top scoring spot among quarterbacks.
Last season, Roethlisberger finished tied for first in vertical touchdown passes (19 scores on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and had the lowest bad decision rate (BDR) among quarterbacks with 200 or more vertical attempts. This last fact stands out because BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Downfield throws are often the riskiest, but Roethlisberger has mastered the ability to hit large volumes of big downfield plays while avoiding mistakes.
This long pass ability should be enhanced with the further development ofMartavis Bryant. He ranked tied for ninth in stretch vertical touchdowns (four scores on aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield) despite being on the field for only 281 of the Steelers' 1,068 offensive snaps. Bryant's on-field percentage should increase dramatically during the 2015 campaign, and that could move his stretch vertical scoring production to an even higher plateau. If that happens, Roethlisberger could push for 40 passing touchdowns and vie for the top scoring spot among fantasy quarterbacks.


C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
Anderson led all running backs in scoring from Weeks 10-17 last season (158 points). He also finished tied for second in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges a ball carrier's productivity on plays with good blocking (very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt).
The only running back to post a higher GBYPA than Anderson was Justin Forsett, who at the time was working in a Gary Kubiak-directed system. This is important because Kubiak is now the Broncos' head coach, so his system can do the same thing for Anderson that it did for Forsett.
Kubiak's history also indicates he will lean on the rushing game more than the Broncos have in the Peyton Manning era. In 21 seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Kubiak's clubs have ranked higher in the league rushing attempt rankings than they have in the passing attempt rankings 14 times.
These elements all point toward Anderson being a candidate to take over as the top fantasy running back, and yet he is currently available in the second round of the average ESPN 10-team fantasy draft. That puts him in the low-cost superstar category, but fantasy owners can also reduce any risk in taking Anderson by adding Montee Ball and/or Juwan Thompson to their roster as low-cost handcuffs.


Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Nelson finished last season ranked tied for second in vertical touchdowns (10), first in vertical receiving yards (1,095), tied for first in stretch vertical touchdowns (8) and first in stretch vertical yards (686). (Note: These yardage totals include penalty plays such as defensive pass interference and illegal contact).
This shows Nelson is the primary downfield target in an offense piloted by the best quarterback in the NFL.
That distinction vaulted Nelson to rank third in wide receiver scoring last season and yet he is available as the fifth or sixth wide receiver in most ESPN draft rooms.
What makes that last fact stand out is Nelson's draft value is roughly equal to Calvin Johnson's. Johnson's value isn't based on an accurate risk assessment, as Johnson has played in only 1,087 of the Lions' 2,147 offensive snaps the past two years. Johnson's health issues are enough of a concern that one team executivetold ESPN Insider Mike Sando that Johnson, "is [physically] going to fall apart at some point." This indicates fantasy owners in general are overlooking the risk inherent in selecting Johnson, thus making Nelson's relative draft value an even lower-risk proposition.


Buffalo Bills D/ST
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</article>The Philadelphia Eagles were the D/ST that made the 2015 No Respect fantasy football team, but the Bills were strong contenders for that honor.
Buffalo finished first in fantasy D/ST scoring last season. The Bills re-signedJerry Hughes, one of the highest-rated defenders in the 2015 free-agent class, and drafted Ronald Darby, a cornerback who received a rare "1" cover skills rating from Scouts, Inc.
The Bills also added the defensive play-calling prowess of new head coach Rex Ryan, whose career record is strewn with plenty of top-three finishes in many defensive categories.
This would indicate the Bills should be able to successfully defend their fantasy D/ST scoring crown, yet Buffalo is currently second in ADP and being taken nearly three rounds later than Seattle's D/ST. Savvy fantasy owners who still want to aim for the top D/ST will pass on the Seahawks and instead pay the lower price for Buffalo.