4 Monday w/analysis

All plays are for 2 units
Listed pitchers must go

MINNESOTA -1½ +144 over Chicago
Against starters Colby Lewis, Nick Martinez and Yovanni Gallardo this past weekend, the White scored three earned runs total. They scored another three runs on the Rangers relievers to bring their three-game overall total to six runs scored ay U.S. Cellular Field over the weekend. We can’t even begin to explain how pathetic that is against two very below average starters (Lewis and Martinez) and one average one. At least the Rangers had an excuse with several key starters on the rack including Adrian Beltre and Delino DeShields among others. Over their past 20 games, the South Side’s 215 team batting average is dead last in the majors. So too is their 58 runs scored over that stretch. To come within 1½-runs here, Chicago is going to have to score some runs because John Danks figures to give up plenty. Danks has thrown just one quality game in seven starts on the road. Target Field has been a house of horrors for him. Already this season he has a disaster start in a visit to Target Field and in nine career starts there, he is 2-6 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 50 innings. Danks brings a 33% groundball rate, 87 mph heat, a weak strikeout rate of 52 K’s in 78 innings, a brutal 1.45 WHIP and a 5.31 ERA and a 6.35 ERA over his last three games to this start. The only reason he’s even in the rotation is because the South Side is paying this stiff 15.75M to pitch this season.

Tommy Milone is one of the more interesting studies in the game. He opened the year as the Twins’ fifth starter, but he couldn’t hold it after posting a 4.76 ERA and striking out just two more batters than he walked. Milone subsequently earned a demotion to Triple-A Rochester where something good happened before he was recalled on June 4. What happened was Milone started striking out guys at an elite level. The man who holds just a 16.6% strikeout rate over 518 Major League innings struck out 33.6% of batters over 38.2 innings. That’s 47 strikeouts and just three walks over 38.2 innings at Rochester. The minors you say? That’s true but pitchers that are sent down do not double their strikeout rate and significantly increase their swing and miss rate. In his last two starts, at this level, Milone went seven full innings in both of them in Texas and at home against the Cardinals. All he did in those 14 frames was allow eight hits while striking out 13, walking one and inducing 53% groundouts. Then there’s this little nugget too: in five career starts against the South Side, Milone is 2-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. That’s when Milone was worse and the White Sox were known as a team that could bash. We’re not going to wait to see of Milone’s skills gains are real any longer. 57 consecutive innings of outstanding pitching split between the minors and majors, plus his experience, is enough incentive.

Detroit +130 over CLEVELAND
The Indians managed to salvage the final game of their three-game home set with the Rays over the weekend but it was one of the luckier wins of the season. Heading to the ninth inning, the Tribe had one hit and ultimately won the game 1-0. Cleveland has scored one run or less in five of their past seven games. Over the weekend, they scored one single run in all three games. They also have the worst home record in the AL and now they’ll face a pitcher that they’ve never seen before in Kyle Ryan. Ryan has made just two relief appearances and two starts since being called up in Late May but has performed much better in the starter’s role. In two starts covering 13.1 innings, Ryan has allowed just eight hits. Unfortunately for Ryan, four of those eight hits left the yard but we’re not concerned because his batted ball profile both in the minors and majors does not support the jacks given up. Ryan works quickly, throws strikes, and keeps the infield defense active with plenty of groundball outs. He works with four pitches and knows how to get the most out of his arsenal.

The Tigers have seen plenty of Trevor Bauer and they’ve pounded him in the past. Current Tigers are hitting a combined .326 over Bauer over 89 AB’s and it’s also worth noting that Bauer has been awful at home this season with a 5.40/4.90 ERA/xERA split. Bauer has looked like an up and coming ace on the surface so far with a 3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 82 K’s in 81 innings. Trouble is, his skills have been more average than emerging. Bauer’s 36%/46% groundball/fly-ball split and poor control (37 BB) is flirting with danger at Progressive Field or any park for that matter. His first-pitch strike rate of just 57% suggests he’s going to keep walking hitters. Bauer has walked 12 over his last three starts covering 17.1 frames. Trevor Bauer figures he can strike out every batter he faces. That’s his intention, especially with men on base, thus, he starts overthrowing against everyone. Bauer has definite upside but he’s not close to being a polished pitcher. The Tigers have made him pay in the past and they’re likely going to make him pay again here.

TAMPA BAY +112 over Toronto
Matt Andriese is a pitcher that we’ve been watching closely ever since he arrived in Tampa Bay as part of the seven-player Logan Forsythe deal during the 2014 off-season. Andriese attacks hitters with a nice, four-pitch mix. Andriese has appeared in nine games so far with four of those coming as a starter. He has not allowed a run in 10 straight innings, which includes one start and one long relief appearance. What sticks out most, however, is his outstanding batted ball profile of 55% groundballs, 18% line-drives and 27% fly-balls. Andriese is a durable starter with well above average control and now he’s pitching with more confidence than ever before at this level.

The Blue Jays lead the league in several offensive categories but we’re not buying it as much as those two idiots (Pat Tabler and Buck Martinez) that do their broadcasts. Numbers don’t lie but they can be deceiving at times. Toronto is not going to continue to score runs at this pace. They have several weak links in their lineup but because they are scoring a ton of runs, their stock is way too high. Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Ryan Goins, Ricky Martin and Edwin Encarnacion are all below average hitters. The Jays have one regular batting over .300 and that would be Josh Donaldson at .302. Encarnacion is a home-run hitter and that’s it. He’s also a double-play waiting to happen and so is Ricky Martin. The Jays are just 14-20 on the road. In their last extended road trip of six games or more, they went 1-6. In their last road series in New York against the Mets, they went 0-2. In five road starts, Drew Hutchison has been tagged for 48 hits and 34 runs in 32.1 innings for a road ERA of 9.48. Hutchison’s oppBA on the road is .350 and current Rays are hitting .326 off him. This market loves the Jays offense and that’s why they’re favored here. Thing is, the Rays are in first place in the AL East, they’re in very good form right now with eight wins in their past 10 games and they have to be considered the prudent play here based on value alone.

Houston +115 over L.A. ANGELS
Brett Oberholtzer made one start in mid-May after coming off the DL. He was subsequently sent down for a three-inning stint before getting called back up again on June 1. Oberholtzer has made the most of it since with some impressive performances. What’s even more impressive is that Oberholtzer has faced Baltimore, Toronto and Colorado in three of his four starts since returning and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of them. The game in which he allowed three runs occurred at Coors Field. In his other start, he threw eight shutout innings over the Mariners in Seattle. Oberholtzer has not allowed a single jack in 26.2 innings of work this year. Since he’s returned, he’s posted a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 50%/17%/33%. Do we trust Oberholtzer? Not entirely but we absolutely trust him more than Hector Santiago.

We’ve been attacking Santiago for two starts in a row and we’re not about to let up now. Incidentally, the Angels went 1-1 in those two starts but Santiago was not the reason. Santiago throws more pitches per AB than any starter in baseball. Over five innings, it’s not unusual to see his pitch count reach 100. He can’t put away hitters, he has trouble staying ahead in the count and his skills aren’t very good either. Santiago has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this season, as his 4.34 xERA is more than a run and a half above his actual ERA of 2.77. The combination of a 27% hit rate and 85% strand rate have propelled his success thus far. His fly-ball tilt (52% FB%) has been catching up with him recently, as in each of his past three starts he has allowed two HR. His groundball rate of 29% is the lowest rate among qualified pitchers in the entire league. His 78 K’s in 81 innings does not come with support of his underlying 9% swing and miss rate. No chance in hell does Santiago maintain his current 2.77 ERA much longer, thus, he offers more risk than reward.

With you Sherwood. GL

Go 2-2 and make a unit and a half.....we'll take it.