Baseball Discussion Thread Topic #2: What would you like to improve on, learn, or get better at in your Baseball capping?

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

Last time we all had a good discussion and gave our opinions and takes
on betting parlays for Baseball. We are going to change it up a little today.

As a Baseball capper what would you like to improve on, learn, or get better at
In regards to your Baseball capping. It can be one thing it can be several things.

sparticus · Jun 23, 2015

The way to reduce a -1.5 run line to -1 run line, i forgot,LOL!

Inittowinit · Jun 23, 2015

sparticus said:
The way to reduce a -1.5 run line to -1 run line, i forgot,LOL!

Assuming you were not kidding. All you need to do is bet half your wager on the money line and the other half on -1.5 line.
ex. SF Giants money line -200 $100 to win $50
SF Giants 1.5 RL +100 $100 to win $100

= SF Giants -1 -150

I would like to learn how other cappers cap games and do their work. Me personally, I cap based on SP's whip last 3 games (whether theyre on road or home) and also see how last 5 games teams are hitting. If one team is hitting well and opposing SP has low whip, i play. I never really asked or paid attention how others do their indepth capping. I also look for SPs that are proven to bounce back from bad outtings and see if they got rocked previous games.

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

I would like to learn more about the SDQL query stuff
and see if I could use that as another filter of sorts to
take me off a potential losing play. OR to use it to put
me on a potential winning play that I might have just
passed on.

gk51 · Jun 23, 2015

Here is a link on how to reduce the -1.5 RL to a -1 RL. Found this elsewhere. Hope this helps.

http://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

gk51 said:
Here is a link on how to reduce the -1.5 RL to a -1 RL. Found this elsewhere. Hope this helps.

http://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/

This is a good thing for players to learn. A player usually will save
themselves several cents doing it themselves as opposed to the -1
the book is providing.

shale · Jun 23, 2015

Kevy said:
I would like to learn more about the SDQL query stuff
and see if I could use that as another filter of sorts to
take me off a potential losing play. OR to use it to put
me on a potential winning play that I might have just
passed on.

Takes time and stick to a minimum amount of criteria you want to look into. I stick to pitchers, head to head at location and ump. You can get very consumed in queries if stuff is continually added to that particular query for an outcome...

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

Inittowinit said:
Assuming you were not kidding. All you need to do is bet half your wager on the money line and the other half on -1.5 line.
ex. SF Giants money line -200 $100 to win $50
SF Giants 1.5 RL +100 $100 to win $100

= SF Giants -1 -150

I would like to learn how other cappers cap games and do their work. Me personally, I cap based on SP's whip last 3 games (whether theyre on road or home) and also see how last 5 games teams are hitting. If one team is hitting well and opposing SP has low whip, i play. I never really asked or paid attention how others do their indepth capping. I also look for SPs that are proven to bounce back from bad outtings and see if they got rocked previous games.

I think one of the best things if not thee best thing a capper can do is learn
how to make a line for a game (side/total).

HonorableHandicapper · Jun 23, 2015

I know a lot of sharp gamblers in baseball get down action in the morning but I have a hard time doing that without confirming lineups, weather etc... Also, I have a difficult time digesting what's a legit move and just a set up for later.

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

shale said:
Takes time and stick to a minimum amount of criteria you want to look into. I stick to pitchers, head to head at location and ump. You can get very consumed in queries if stuff is continually added to that particular query for an outcome...

What I always respect about you guys that do the SDQL is the time and effort and research all you guys put in to it.

Michelangelo · Jun 23, 2015

I am always curious as to how one arrives at the thought that one bet is X number of times more worthy than another bet. In other words one unit to 3 units or 5 units for instance.

How do you guys (gals) quantify your bets?

shale · Jun 23, 2015

HonorableHandicapper said:
I know a lot of sharp gamblers in baseball get down action in the morning but I have a hard time doing that without confirming lineups, weather etc... Also, I have a difficult time digesting what's a legit move and just a set up for later.

^ This to I have a hard time digesting....many a times a move makes no sense at all and can possibly shy me away from the pick I want.

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

HonorableHandicapper said:
I know a lot of sharp gamblers in baseball get down action in the morning but I have a hard time doing that without confirming lineups, weather etc... Also, I have a difficult time digesting what's a legit move and just a set up for later.

I like your approach. I wait also most of the time. There are so many dummy moves with the different factions out there
to set up what they want. Sometimes its funny when you read comments from the posters who dont know that this occurs
daily in this industry all year around. And they want to post about line moves, money, sharp sides, etc. When half the time
they dont have a clue as to whats really going on.

shale · Jun 23, 2015

Michelangelo said:
I am always curious as to how one arrives at the thought that one bet is X number of times more worthy than another bet. In other words one unit to 3 units or 5 units for instance.

How do you guys (gals) quantify your bets?

Only two types for me, 90% of my action will be 3* and 10% 6*. Need a lot to fall into place for a 6*.

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

Michelangelo said:
I am always curious as to how one arrives at the thought that one bet is X number of times more worthy than another bet. In other words one unit to 3 units or 5 units for instance.

How do you guys (gals) quantify your bets?

+1

I use the same base/criteria/filters for all my play(s) selections.
So thus all are bet for the same amount of units like 95% of the time.

I have always wondered what for some of my forum friends is the
difference between there for example 2, 4, 6, 8 unit play etc???
Expected win percentage, something in their criteria or filters, etc.

HonorableHandicapper · Jun 23, 2015

Information filters in a lot quicker these days than it did 10 years ago (due to technology). If you got a beat on something (outside of the obvious), lets say you know Mike Trout and other Angels went out drinking last night and had a little too much, of course you're going to up your wager on the Astros tonight. Nothing is ever a guarantee but you're going to fire more than you typically would. Fluctuating units on games at a high rate is not beneficial for most people but the ones who really know the market and have the bankroll, do and they do it at a high rate. But you have to keep in mind, these guys are doing everything under the sun (overnight, buy backs etc..).

Kevy · Jun 23, 2015

HonorableHandicapper said:
Information filters in a lot quicker these days than it did 10 years ago (due to technology). If you got a beat on something (outside of the obvious), lets say you know Mike Trout and other Angels went out drinking last night and had a little too much, of course you're going to up your wager on the Astros tonight. Nothing is ever a guarantee but you're going to fire more than you typically would. Fluctuating units on games at a high rate is not beneficial for most people but the ones who really know the market and have the bankroll, do and they do it at a high rate. But you have to keep in mind, these guys are doing everything under the sun (overnight, buy backs etc..).

This describes a lot of my friends in this industry. From the moment Bet Online releases the over nights for a game (s)
up to one minute before the first pitch.

gold64 · Jun 23, 2015

This should be a useful thread.

i take this very seriously, and don't dwell as much on pitching matchup. (By the 8th inning, the starters are usually out of the game anyway).
It really comes down to which team is going to hit today. Are they alert after confronting tough thrower day before; are they approaching today's matchup more prepared to hit than recent games?

dd_1_pl_4_u_ · Jun 23, 2015

Would like to know if anyone has been able to make money using Live Betting Extra.
I will use if I miss a play and the opponent scores first now I am getting better odds but of course I am losing.
I like it also if I play a large dog my team puts up 5 runs in the 2nd inning so now I can get + 800 on my opponent.
I will make a small play on the +800 I call it a insurance play no matter who wins I make money but I am
still going to make 3 or 4 times the money if I win my original play. So I have reduced my risk to zero which
is good money management I want to protect my bankroll at all costs.

Kevy · Jun 24, 2015

dd_1_pl_4_u_ said:
Would like to know if anyone has been able to make money using Live Betting Extra.
I will use if I miss a play and the opponent scores first now I am getting better odds but of course I am losing.
I like it also if I play a large dog my team puts up 5 runs in the 2nd inning so now I can get + 800 on my opponent.
I will make a small play on the +800 I call it a insurance play no matter who wins I make money but I am
still going to make 3 or 4 times the money if I win my original play. So I have reduced my risk to zero which
is good money management I want to protect my bankroll at all costs.

Doug keep up the good work on the live betting. GL Wednesday wagers.