| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +1.48 |
| Last 30 Days | 44 | 53 | 0.00 | -1.26 |
| Season to Date | 109 | 126 | 0.00 | +9.21 |
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Bos is 2.2 units to win 2
Seattle is a 2 unit wager.
Listed pitchers must go.
BOSTON -110 over Baltimore
Ubaldo Jimenez is 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA after 13 starts while Joe Kelly is 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA after the same 13 starts. Jimenez’s overall ERA is more than two runs less than Kelly’s but that does not mean Jimenez is the superior pitcher. We write often about misleading surface stats and in that regard, Jimenez should be the poster boy for it. Jimenez’s line-drive rate of 26% is the fourth worst among qualified starters in MLB. His 32% line-drive rate over his last five starts suggests the tank may be getting low and his 34%/32%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last six starts strongly suggests the same thing. Jimenez already has a disaster start to his name in his only start at Fenway Park this season. He has started there four times in his career, where he has posted a 7.41 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. Overall in 34.1 road inning this season, Jimenez has an unsightly 1.54 WHIP. Jimenez has some blowups coming up.
Meanwhile, Joe Kelly is so damn close to being an elite starter. He’s not there yet and he’s been on the cusp before but some guys take a little longer than others to get there. Kelly possesses one of the best fastballs in the game and his secondary offerings are pretty sweet too. You would think that with an arsenal like that he would thrive but that has not been the case. He has thrived in many starts over the past three years but he’s also had too many disaster starts thus, he’s a tweak or two away from putting it all together. What we know for sure is that Kelly’s fastball is consistently at 94-95 mph with late life and he has one of the best sliders in the game. When he’s on, he’s ace caliber. Kelly’s batted ball profile over his last five starts is as good as anyone in the game with a 52%/17%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. In his last start his groundball/line-drive split was off the charts at 65%/8%. Furthermore, the Red Sox are at least warming up with three wins in their last four games while scoring 29 runs over that four-game span. Joe Kelly is an extremely skilled pitcher that is undervalued, while Ubaldo Jimenez’s penchant for winning more games than deserved isn't really a skill. Let that be your guide.
SEATTLE +106 over Kansas City
Jeremy Guthrie has four quality starts in 13 attempts this season. He has an ERA of 5.55 with an xERA of 5.01. In 71 innings, Guthrie’s BB/K split is 20/33. Guthrie is merely an innings-eater that does his thing, which doesn't include offering much value. His decent control keeps his performance barely above water, but as he showed in the 2nd half of last year and in many starts over his career, the wind, the park and a hit% swing in the wrong direction can hurt. Lefties have always wreaked havoc on him. Guthrie’s strikeout rate is beyond weak and his 34% groundball rate isn’t much better. He's healthy, consistent, reliably poor and painfully mediocre. As a favorite on the road, we’ll pass.
Enter Mike Montgomery, who figures to treat this one like the seventh game of the World Series. You see, Montgomery was formerly one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He was originally in the Royals organization from 2008 to 2012 before they gave up on him and traded him to Tampa Bay in the James Shields deal, where he spent the next two seasons in that organization.The Mariners then obtained him in December of 2014. Now Montgomery gets a crack at the team that gave him up on him and we trust he’ll give it everything he has. Montgomery has three quality starts in four tries, which is one less than Guthrie in 13 tries. He comes in with a 2.73 ERA and a very respectable 1.14 WHIP. After dominating seasons between 2008 and 2010 in the minors, Montgomery suddenly struggled with his mechanics. However, he induces groundballs with his 88-94 mph fastball that he commands as well as he did five years ago. When he’s on his game, his change-up is a terrific offering. While his peripherals don’t jump off the page, his line-drive rate of just 17% does and it shows that batters are having difficulty squaring up on him. Montgomery did struggle in Triple-A from 2012 to 2014. The Rays also gave up on him but sometimes the anticipation of making it to the big leagues combined with the high prospect status is a bit too much for a young kid with talent. The Mariners didn’t fool around with him by keeping in the minors for a long time, opting instead to give him a shot at this level and it’s paid off so far. Again, he now gets the chance to stick it to the team that drafted him we trust him and his teammates to respond.
