3 Wednesday w/analysis

All plays are for 2 units
Listed pitchers must go

CHICAGO +101 over Los Angeles
The Cubbies just defeated Clayton Kershaw and Zach Grienke to run their record to a season high nine games over .500. They have momentum and they’re playing in an energetic ballpark. The atmosphere at Wrigley these days is amazing. Things figure to be a little easier today for the Cubs against Michael Bolsinger. Bolsinger has come up with some decent games this year but so what. He has four pure quality starts in nine tries and he’s been far better at Chavez Ravine than he’s been on the road. On the road, Bolsinger has not been able to make it past the sixth inning in any of his four road starts. Three of those starts came at three pitcher’s parks in San Fran, St. Louis and San Diego. In 21 road innings, Bolsinger has been tagged for 24 hits, (.286 BA) and nine earned runs while walking 11 batters and whiffing 18. His ERA/xERA split on the road is 3.80/4.22. Here’s a guy that went 1-6 with an ERA of 5.51 last season in 51 frames for the D-Backs. Five years ago, this blend of control/strikeouts/command plus a groundball tilt would have served him well. However, advanced stats say that today this is a below-average skill set with a horrible 52% first pitch strike rate, a 1.57 WHIP over his last six starts and 86.5 mph heat that often flattens out. Since the day he arrived at this level up until the present, Bolsinger’s distribution of dominant starts/disasters starts % is poetic: he's 33% great, 33% terrible, and 33% mediocre. That's not a winning mix.

We played Kyle Hendricks in his last start in Minnesota and he was tagged for 11 hits and six runs in five innings before getting yanked. That poor outing has Hendricks and the Cubs underpriced here and we’re all over it. Hendricks has walked one batter over his past three starts. His groundball rate has been on a steady climb all season and is now up to 51% over his last seven starts. His line-drive rate of 18% is better than the league average of 21%. In 74 overall innings this year, Hendricks has a BB/K split of 14/60. In 28.2 innings at Wrigley, his BB/K split is much better at 6/32 with an oppBA of .229. In 12 career starts at Wrigley dating back to last year, Hendricks has a ERA/xERA split of 2.60/2.92 and he’ll now face a scuffling Dodgers offense that has averaged a mere 3.2 runs per game in June, which is second last in the NL ahead of only the Mets. Wrong side favored.

MILWAUKEE -1½ +170 over N.Y. Mets
The Mets lost last night 3-2. They’ve now scored 11 times over their past seven games. New York’s only victory over that span came against Toronto’s Scott Copeland, who the Mets scored three runs off of. Scott Copeland may never pitch in the majors again because that’s how bad he really is. In 35 road games, the Metropolitans have 10 wins. Now it’s the 42-year old Bartolo Colon’s turn. The Mets can’t win with Noah Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom, Matt Harvey or Jonathan Niese going on the road so one really has to wonder how they’re going to win or stay within this range with Colon going. Colon doesn’t even look like a baseball player. He looks like the guy that all-you-can-eat buffet restaurant owners pray doesn’t walk through the door and we’re not sure how he keeps it going on. Colon’s swing and miss rate is down to 4% over his last five starts. His fastball velocity is at 88.6 mph and the only thing he does well with it is locate it. Father time catches up to everyone but somehow Colon has been able to fend it off. We’ve seen crafty lefties and off-speed masters extend their careers for a few more years but Colon is a rare bird. He’s been able to extend his career based on location of his pitches without off-speed junk. Well, it can’t last much longer. He’s been whacked in four of his past eight starts. The last time he faced the Crew, Colon lasted five innings at Citi-Field after surrendering six runs. Miller Park is a lot less forgiving. Over his last 10 starts, Colon has been taken deep 10 times. Time is running out on Colon. Furthermore, these hot summer nights cannot in any way be beneficial to a pitcher that is as out of shape as he is.

Since the start of the 2014 season, Jimmy Nelson has a W/L record of 5-17 with an ERA of 4.79, which once again shows just how misleading surface stats can be. Regarding Nelson, there are at least four reasons for optimism: skills growth; refined control that is supported by a 63% first pitch strike rate; swing and miss rate of 11% hints that more K’s are on the way; a strong groundball rate. Nelson needs to translate his minor-league success to this level and he’s absolutely getting closer. In fact, Nelson has the makings of an electric starter when he is pitching with the bases empty: 10 K’s/9 with a 51% groundball rate. His dominance and command erode significantly when he throws from the stretch: 5.8 K’s/9, 3.5 BB/9 with a 49% groundball rate. Nelson is figuring things out and the future looks very bright for him. Oh, and against the Mets, he’s going to be pitching often with the bases empty. Run-line price has influence here but man does it also offer up some nice value.

San Diego +114 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Giants have one home win in their last 11 games. They dropped the opener of this series yesterday while scoring just two runs on Odrisamer Despaigne, one of the worst road pitchers in the league. Ryan Vogelsong has been solid at AT&T Park but he’s still too big a risk as the chalk. After going 4-0 in five starts in May with a 1.14 ERA, Vogelsong was 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA in his first three starts in June before Thursday's masterpiece against the Mariners. A below average starter coming off a great game is usually in store for trouble the next time out. Vogelsong has pathetic skills once runners get into scoring position. Check this out: with runners in scoring position since the beginning of 2013, Vogelsong’s K’s/9 is 3.8 while his BB's/9 is 8.8! That suggests that he’s afraid to come at hitters once the pressure heightens. It’s actually somewhat understandable considering that he rarely misses a bat with his 6% swing and miss rate. Vogelsong’s age (37), his groundball % decline and his weakening skills show there's still a great deal of risk. His career peripherals provide the proper perspective; at his 2011-12 peak, he was just league average. Pass.

It's been a rough opening to the 2015 season for Ian Kennedy, who hit the DL with a hamstring injury after his first start and is currently sporting a 5.63 ERA. However, Kennedy's skills are in line with those of last year, so now would be the time to buy low. Kennedy continues to generate plenty of swings and misses, and is striking out a batter per inning for the second consecutive season. That mark may drop slightly, as it typically sat in the 7.8 to 8.1 range prior to last season. Either way, he's a safe bet to remain a strong source of strikeouts. He's been the victim of some very bad luck, as his hit rate, strand rate, and especially his home run per fly ball rate are currently on the wrong side of league average. The hit rate is in line with his usual level, but the home runs, nine of which have come in 27 1/3 innings at PETCO, are sure to slow down. Kennedy had just one pure disaster start in 2014, but has already had four in 12 starts this year, while averaging just six innings per outing. There doesn't appear to be anything wrong with his skills. Kennedy’s xERA of 3.65 is two runs lower than his actual ERA. He’s surrendered three runs or less in four straight starts and just one run in each of his last two starts. Ian Kennedy is feeling healthy and confident right now and he has the underlying skills to back him up. This guy can pitch and he's a far better option taking back a price than Vogelsong is spotting one.