Hello guys. Let me introduce myself: I am a 25-year-old passioned NFL follower & handicapper from Germany. I have been posting across the street for the whole 2014 season and went 83-51 (62%) along with 4-1 on my so called "big plays". I am addicted to talking about the NFL and I am just looking for another forum to talk about football. IMO every useful discussion makes everyone better when evaluating games/picks. The summer is so boring sports-wise. I do research about the upcoming season almost every day and would love to start some good discussions on here. To start, here are some quick thoughts about teams that might surprise and teams that should regress. For example, the Jets will automatically finish much better than 4-12, but I want to focus on teams that might not be too obvious. Btw, I am a Jets fan and a numbers-guy. I will have a Jets thread as well.
Teams that will surprise:
Miami Dolphins - stacked offense with an underrated Ryan Tannehill and a receiving corps of DeVante Parker, my favorite WR in the draft, Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills & Jordan Cameron. A Dolphins expert I always listen to, told me that Dion Sims is also a very talented TE. Their o-line will play much better when Pouncey and Albert keep staying healthy. When both were healthy, Ryan Tannehill had his best games and was torching opposing secondaries (GB,CHI,JAX,SD,DET). Crazy d-line with Suh, Vernon & Wake - they will create a lot of pressure. All-Pro Wake had 12 sacks, 14 hits and 39 hurries in 2014. They've got a slight weakness on the LB position but overall they are a clear playoff team. In the middle of last season they had the best defense in the league before getting into a downward spiral along with the absence of Branden Albert.
Minnesota Vikings - They were not the media hyped team in 2014. They have been building a great defense. They had a very solid front seven and Xavier Rhodes finished as a top-10 CB in 2014 and they just added Trae Waynes into a very good CB-developmental system. Erik Kendricks will be a starter on ILB and Danielle Hunter could develop in the DE-rotation. Chad Greenway had some injury troubles last season. Teddy Bridgewater faced one of the biggest pressure from opposing d-lines of all QBs due to bad o-line play and he was just great. According to PFF, he finished as the BEST QB under pressure and he had a below-average receiving corps. Vikes added OT T.J. Clemmings in the fourth round who could have left the board much higher. They added a deep threat in Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson showed some good signs with his 15.3 yards per reception but he needs to develop his catching ability. Adrian Peterson comes back and gives Teddy another option in the passing game: AP caught 75.3% of his targets since 2009. I don't really care about the running game, but the Vikes may have the best tandem in the league. Jerick McKinnon averaged 4.9 YPC last season. The Vikes' red zone offense is gonna be very good. They won't beat the Packers but they will finish 2nd in the division and will have a good shot at reaching the playoffs.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams' opponents have scored 19.7% of their points on defense or special teams. 19.7%!!! That was by far the worst number in the league. The Redskins have been second with 11.2%. It is also the 3rd-worst number since 2003, only the 2004 Dolphins and 2008 Vikings were worse. They were up 21-0 against the Cowboys, 14-0 against the Niners. Lost both. They were up 14-10 against the Cardinals heading into the fourth quarter, before turning the ball over three times. They rallied against the Chargers and Shaun Hill threw an INT from the SD 4-yard-line with 1.27min left on the clock when the score was 24-27. They totally smacked the Eagles, but gave up 14 points on a blocked punt return and fumble return. Lost 28-34. They could have been 10-6 rather than 6-10 in 2014. They had a big problem to finish games, just like in the game at Arizona. Now they got Nick Foles, a better running game for short downs and red zone opportunities, added Nick Fairley to their already strong d-line and upgraded their o-line with developmental boys. Aaron Donald finished as the DROY and a Pro-Bowler in his rookie season. To combine him with Chris Long, Robert Quinn and Nick Fairley in a 4-3 isn't fair. They are gonna be a nightmare matchup for several teams.
Atlanta Falcons: 2014: Bottom-five in pass rush and pass coverage. No running game to support Matt Ryan on short downs. They did solve a lot. First of all they got the defensive mastermind from Seattle as their head coach: Dan Quinn. Their first five draft picks were "bulls eye". OLB Vic Beasley from one of the best college defenses in Clemson, CB Jalen Collins from LSU, a guy I really liked to watch on Saturday. RB Tevin Coleman who could be the immediate starter and bring some new explosiveness. DT Grady Jarrett was a steal in the 5th round and WR Justin Hardy joins from a very lethal passing attack from ECU. He will need some time to develop into an NFL system and to play against NFL defenses. He didn't face the greatest competition in the AAC. The defense will be much better due to the draft improvements and the new system by Dan Quinn. The offense was already top-ten material and they added Hankerson (solid when healthy), Hardy and Coleman. Their TE play will still be questionable, so we might see some more multi-WR sets and get Coleman involved on screens. Due to the improved defense and RB play they take pressure off Matt Ryan so we should see some more Matty Ice situations in 2015. They have improved a lot and they are my favorite to win the division.
Teams which will regress or finish much worse than in 2014:
New England Patriots: They lost four important players from last year: Revis, Browner, Arrington & Wilfork. They were one of the best coverage teams in the league and they lost all three CBs. Remember they held the Colts to just three TDs in two games. Revis had his island and Kyle Arrington shut down T.Y. Hilton in the slot. The Colts' TEs collected 48% of the receiving yards in those two games.
They play the Bills, Jets & Dolphins who all have upgraded defenses and have one heck of a pass rush - exactly what Tom Brady doesn't like. Remember the Jets were weak last season and Rex Ryan forced two close ones. Jets & Dolphins improved on both sides of the ball while the already defensive stacked Bills got Rex Ryan. I can see the Pats going 3-3 or 2-4 within the division. @Dallas, @Denver, @Indy, @Houston and the three road games against phenomenal defenses within the division. This could be the toughest road schedule of all teams. 8-8 isn't impossible.
Detroit Lions: They have been over-achieving in close games and had the best DT-tandem in the league with Suh and Fairley. They are both gone so the pressure is on their backfield. They don't have a deep rotation on DE. They will look much worse on defense. On the offensive side of the ball they have one of the youngest o-line in the league. Only Ramirez is a veteran. They will still score often but will have their problems against good pass defenses or teams that can torch them through the air. Chargers, Vikes, Broncos, Seahawks. Heck, I could see them start 0-4 into the season. They will battle for the third place in the division.
Cleveland Browns: 7-9 record in 2014. The reason they won 7 games? Solid pass protection, game-managing by Brian Hoyer, best pass coverage in the league and a little bit of Jordan Cameron & Josh Gordon (5 games). When they faced some good pass-defending teams: 7 vs HOU, 21 & 10 vs. BLT, 10 vs. BUF. Brian Hoyer is gone, Jordan Cameron is gone and Josh Gordon is suspended. Buster Skrine left the secondary, but Tramon Williams and "Ifo" could make the loss acceptable. Their offense is the worst in the league on paper. Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown or Connor Shaw with that kind of a receiving corps? Have fun. I would want to watch the rehab of C Alex Mack closely. They drafted Cam Erving for a possible departure of Mack in 2016. The Browns in 2014 with Alex Mack: 6 sacks in 5 games. Without him: 25 sacks in 11 games. There schedule is very scary: Four games against the AFC East, Six games against Cincy, Balt & Pitts, four games against the AFC West, Seahawks & Rams. The Browns are my favorite team to hold the number one pick in the 2016 draft.
Teams that will surprise:
Miami Dolphins - stacked offense with an underrated Ryan Tannehill and a receiving corps of DeVante Parker, my favorite WR in the draft, Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills & Jordan Cameron. A Dolphins expert I always listen to, told me that Dion Sims is also a very talented TE. Their o-line will play much better when Pouncey and Albert keep staying healthy. When both were healthy, Ryan Tannehill had his best games and was torching opposing secondaries (GB,CHI,JAX,SD,DET). Crazy d-line with Suh, Vernon & Wake - they will create a lot of pressure. All-Pro Wake had 12 sacks, 14 hits and 39 hurries in 2014. They've got a slight weakness on the LB position but overall they are a clear playoff team. In the middle of last season they had the best defense in the league before getting into a downward spiral along with the absence of Branden Albert.
Minnesota Vikings - They were not the media hyped team in 2014. They have been building a great defense. They had a very solid front seven and Xavier Rhodes finished as a top-10 CB in 2014 and they just added Trae Waynes into a very good CB-developmental system. Erik Kendricks will be a starter on ILB and Danielle Hunter could develop in the DE-rotation. Chad Greenway had some injury troubles last season. Teddy Bridgewater faced one of the biggest pressure from opposing d-lines of all QBs due to bad o-line play and he was just great. According to PFF, he finished as the BEST QB under pressure and he had a below-average receiving corps. Vikes added OT T.J. Clemmings in the fourth round who could have left the board much higher. They added a deep threat in Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson showed some good signs with his 15.3 yards per reception but he needs to develop his catching ability. Adrian Peterson comes back and gives Teddy another option in the passing game: AP caught 75.3% of his targets since 2009. I don't really care about the running game, but the Vikes may have the best tandem in the league. Jerick McKinnon averaged 4.9 YPC last season. The Vikes' red zone offense is gonna be very good. They won't beat the Packers but they will finish 2nd in the division and will have a good shot at reaching the playoffs.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams' opponents have scored 19.7% of their points on defense or special teams. 19.7%!!! That was by far the worst number in the league. The Redskins have been second with 11.2%. It is also the 3rd-worst number since 2003, only the 2004 Dolphins and 2008 Vikings were worse. They were up 21-0 against the Cowboys, 14-0 against the Niners. Lost both. They were up 14-10 against the Cardinals heading into the fourth quarter, before turning the ball over three times. They rallied against the Chargers and Shaun Hill threw an INT from the SD 4-yard-line with 1.27min left on the clock when the score was 24-27. They totally smacked the Eagles, but gave up 14 points on a blocked punt return and fumble return. Lost 28-34. They could have been 10-6 rather than 6-10 in 2014. They had a big problem to finish games, just like in the game at Arizona. Now they got Nick Foles, a better running game for short downs and red zone opportunities, added Nick Fairley to their already strong d-line and upgraded their o-line with developmental boys. Aaron Donald finished as the DROY and a Pro-Bowler in his rookie season. To combine him with Chris Long, Robert Quinn and Nick Fairley in a 4-3 isn't fair. They are gonna be a nightmare matchup for several teams.
Atlanta Falcons: 2014: Bottom-five in pass rush and pass coverage. No running game to support Matt Ryan on short downs. They did solve a lot. First of all they got the defensive mastermind from Seattle as their head coach: Dan Quinn. Their first five draft picks were "bulls eye". OLB Vic Beasley from one of the best college defenses in Clemson, CB Jalen Collins from LSU, a guy I really liked to watch on Saturday. RB Tevin Coleman who could be the immediate starter and bring some new explosiveness. DT Grady Jarrett was a steal in the 5th round and WR Justin Hardy joins from a very lethal passing attack from ECU. He will need some time to develop into an NFL system and to play against NFL defenses. He didn't face the greatest competition in the AAC. The defense will be much better due to the draft improvements and the new system by Dan Quinn. The offense was already top-ten material and they added Hankerson (solid when healthy), Hardy and Coleman. Their TE play will still be questionable, so we might see some more multi-WR sets and get Coleman involved on screens. Due to the improved defense and RB play they take pressure off Matt Ryan so we should see some more Matty Ice situations in 2015. They have improved a lot and they are my favorite to win the division.
Teams which will regress or finish much worse than in 2014:
New England Patriots: They lost four important players from last year: Revis, Browner, Arrington & Wilfork. They were one of the best coverage teams in the league and they lost all three CBs. Remember they held the Colts to just three TDs in two games. Revis had his island and Kyle Arrington shut down T.Y. Hilton in the slot. The Colts' TEs collected 48% of the receiving yards in those two games.
They play the Bills, Jets & Dolphins who all have upgraded defenses and have one heck of a pass rush - exactly what Tom Brady doesn't like. Remember the Jets were weak last season and Rex Ryan forced two close ones. Jets & Dolphins improved on both sides of the ball while the already defensive stacked Bills got Rex Ryan. I can see the Pats going 3-3 or 2-4 within the division. @Dallas, @Denver, @Indy, @Houston and the three road games against phenomenal defenses within the division. This could be the toughest road schedule of all teams. 8-8 isn't impossible.
Detroit Lions: They have been over-achieving in close games and had the best DT-tandem in the league with Suh and Fairley. They are both gone so the pressure is on their backfield. They don't have a deep rotation on DE. They will look much worse on defense. On the offensive side of the ball they have one of the youngest o-line in the league. Only Ramirez is a veteran. They will still score often but will have their problems against good pass defenses or teams that can torch them through the air. Chargers, Vikes, Broncos, Seahawks. Heck, I could see them start 0-4 into the season. They will battle for the third place in the division.
Cleveland Browns: 7-9 record in 2014. The reason they won 7 games? Solid pass protection, game-managing by Brian Hoyer, best pass coverage in the league and a little bit of Jordan Cameron & Josh Gordon (5 games). When they faced some good pass-defending teams: 7 vs HOU, 21 & 10 vs. BLT, 10 vs. BUF. Brian Hoyer is gone, Jordan Cameron is gone and Josh Gordon is suspended. Buster Skrine left the secondary, but Tramon Williams and "Ifo" could make the loss acceptable. Their offense is the worst in the league on paper. Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown or Connor Shaw with that kind of a receiving corps? Have fun. I would want to watch the rehab of C Alex Mack closely. They drafted Cam Erving for a possible departure of Mack in 2016. The Browns in 2014 with Alex Mack: 6 sacks in 5 games. Without him: 25 sacks in 11 games. There schedule is very scary: Four games against the AFC East, Six games against Cincy, Balt & Pitts, four games against the AFC West, Seahawks & Rams. The Browns are my favorite team to hold the number one pick in the 2016 draft.
