| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| Last 30 Days | 44 | 52 | 0.00 | +1.40 |
| Season to Date | 111 | 130 | 0.00 | +6.47 |
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All plays are 2 units
Listed pitchers must go
Oakland -1½ +115 over TEXAS
2:00 PM EST. A hot road team at this park isn’t a bad way to start off when spotting 1½-runs. The A’s have won eight of their past 10 games. They took the first two games of this series while scoring eight runs both times. Of all three games, this is the Rangers worse starter while Oakland will send out its best.
After missing all of the 2013 season to injury, Colby Lewis has now had over a year to show he can return to form. However, a 4.92/4.65 ERA/xERA split and 1.42 WHIP since that time have been underwhelming and things do not look promising moving forward. Lewis' skills fit the high-risk, low-reward mold. Lewis has made some considerable strides with his control, and elite first-pitch strike rate suggests he'll continue to be stingy with the free pass.However, his k-rate continues to fall from his pre-injury days, and his high fly-ball rate of 47% presents some considerable HR risk. Lewis has won three of his last four starts but that’s only because the Rangers have given him some serious run support. Lewis’ ERA/xERA split over his last five games is 5.12/5.47. In the unlikely event that Lewis throws a decent game, it doesn’t matter because Sonny Gray is far more likely to thrive against a suddenly laboring Texas offense.
Sonny Gray is no stranger to the 'ace' label. He's worn it since his arrival in Oakland, even though he had to share top billing with Jeff Samardzjia and Jon Lester. With those two veterans out of the picture, Gray's performance has left no question about who's king of the hill. Any questions about Gray's status as rotation anchor are being answered this season. While he won't maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, the record of xERA that's being established is nothing short of assuring. Any concern about the small dip in 2014's K-rate is being answered. As a bonus, he's cut down on walks, too. Gray continues to induce ground balls at an elite rate, and fewer of the fly-balls he's allowed have cleared the wall. His line-drive rate of 14% is the best (lowest) in the league among qualified starters. As aces go, Gray isn't the type likely to deliver double-digit Ks very often. He'd much prefer to work deeper into games, let his defense go to work behind him and save his strikeout pitch for when he really needs it. Gray is the straight goods
SAN FRANCISO -1½ +186 over San Diego
4:00 PM EST. Chris Heston is a starter with some quietly intriguing skills in certain situations. He is extremely overpowering against RH batters with a 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.7 K’s/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 57% groundball rate. His results fall apart vs. lefties so he’s a tweak away from becoming truly elite if he can maintain these great skills. The good news here is that San Diego’s best hitter’s (Kemp, Norris, Upton, and Barmes among others) are all right-handed bats. The only real threatening left-handed bat in the Pads lineup is Yonder Alonso, who is hitting .321 but has just two bombs in 159 AB’s. But the real reason for this wager is our fade on James Shields.
We ran a rather lengthy piece on Shields before his last start and so in case you missed it, we’re going to copy and paste it here because it still applies. Prior to his last start in Arizona, Shields’ hadn’t lost a game this season. Shields’ is now 7-1 with an ERA of 3.75 but what sticks out most are his 109 strikeouts in 94 innings. Shields’ is striking batters out at a significantly higher rate than his historical numbers indicate he should be and we’re not sure why. Shields picked up a knuckle curve a few years ago, and he’s throwing it this year almost a quarter of the time. It’s probably a good pitch, which explains the swinging and missing, however, it’s also a new pitch and batters are going to catch on real fast. That brings us to some other issues regarding this overvalued starter. The average strand % in 2015 so far is 72.4%. James Shields‘ strand rate is 87.8%. This is significant in that seven out of eight runners that reach base on him get stranded. Considering that, his ERA should be anemic but it’s not. His ERA is a respectable 3.75, but what’s going to happen when his strand rate normalizes? Remember last year’s playoffs? Shields’ was getting whacked when he took the mound for the Royals and frankly, he’s getting whacked this year too. When contact is made against Shields, it’s been hard contact. His line-drive rate over his past eight starts is 28% and on the road, it’s 32%! Only three starting pitchers have given up a higher percentage of hard contact than Shields. When batters make contact against Shields, it is rope after rope. There’s more too. Shields’ has allowed 16 jacks in his 94 innings thus far. He’s given up eight HR’s at home in 45.1 innings and eight on the road in 48.1 innings. In May, Shields surrendered 11 bombs in six starts. Don’t be influenced by Shields’ surface stats because it’s only a matter of time before a series of blowouts occur. His surface stats say that James Shields is having a very good year but we’re here to tell you that his beneath the surface stats scream out that he’s been getting torched out there when hitters make contact. James Shields’ charmed life is going to come crashing down at some point and everyone is going to wonder why. You have the answer here and it’s also worth noting that day games in San Francisco do not play the same as night games. AT&T Park is a pure hitter’s park during the day with its spacious gaps and without the damp nighttime air being helpful to pitchers. The James Shields’ fade continues.
Cincinnati +143 over PITTSBURGH
A.J. Burnett pitched through a hernia for the entire 2014 season and his performance suffered. Now healthy, he has a 2.05 ERA through his first 14 starts but some luck has also played a part in his numbers. Burnett isn’t going to keep his current pace, but there are positive developments in his skills. Burnett’s control gains are fully supported by an improved first pitch-strike rate. However, Burnett has been aided by an extremely fortuitous 87% strand rate as well as a somewhat lucky hit % and hr/f %. The 1½-run difference between ERA and xERA tells the tale. While Burnett obviously isn’t going to hold a 2.05 ERA all year, it’s tough to complain about a 3.34 xERA. Perhaps the biggest question surrounding the 38-year-old is whether or not he can hold on to the aforementioned gains and not wear down as the season progresses. In his last start, he was tagged for 14 hits in 6.2 frames but only allowed three runs against. There’s that lucky strand rate coming into play again.
A.J. Burnett is superior to his mound opponent, Anthony DeSclafani but that’s not the issue here. The issue is that the Pirates with their 40-31 record are the most overrated team in baseball. The Pirates are 12-18 against teams above .500. They have 11 wins combined against the Phillies, White Sox and Brewers. Pittsburgh has made a slew of very average pitchers look very good this year because they swing at almost everything. Their 91 total walks is poor mark that ranks third worst in the NL. This is not a true 9-games over .500 team. They are priced like such and so we are going to start attacking them frequently.
