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Texas +165 over TORONTO (SIA)
Nick Martinez has made 14 starts and comes in with a very misleading 2.77 ERA. A more accurate reading is his 4.54 xERA, which is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA. We’ve been studying ERA and xERA differences for years and we can absolutely guarantee you that Martinez will not be able to maintain this low an ERA much longer. There are more than a few blowups forthcoming for Martinez and in Toronto against this explosive offense, that day could be today but this isn’t about Martinez. It’s always about value.

Mark Buehrle is an amazing study. His pitching IQ has to be off the charts because he’s been fooling major league hitters for well over a decade with some of the most average stuff that you’ll ever see. Buehrle comes into every start with a plan that he never sways from. He works fast and he keeps the same composure throughout the entire outing whether he gives up four runs in an inning or zero runs. He reacts the same after a double-play as he does after surrendering a home run. Still, with an 83.6 mph heater and a 5% swing and miss rate, Buehrle is far too big a risk at prices like this to ignore betting against. Buehrle has far more value when being offered a price and you would probably have to dig very deep into the archives to find the last time he was priced in this range. Combine Buehrle’s 7-4 overall record and his 2-0 record with a 2.13 ERA over his last five starts with the fact that the Blue Jays are putting up sick offensive numbers at home and what you get is an unreasonable market overreaction. Regardless of outcome, Mark Buehrle cannot be favored in this range when he’s just as capable of a disaster start as he is of throwing a gem with a lot of mediocrity in between. We have no problem with ripping up our ticket should this one not pan out because we know we’re going with the best of it. With Buehrle on the hill, the Jays win expectation in any game cannot be more than 50%.

PHILADELPHIA +186 over Washington
Both Max Scherzer and Aaron Harang are familiar names that even the most casual baseball fan would recognize. Harang is familiar because he’s been around forever on several different teams while Scherzer’s familiarity is due to his greatness. This is a pitching mismatch in Scherzer’s favor but this isn’t about that. There’s one reason for this play and one reason only. Max Scherzer is coming off a no-hitter and we’ve been fading pitchers coming off that rare feat for as long as we can remember. That angle has had a great return over the years and so we cannot pick and choose when to apply it.

Not only is Scherzer coming off a no-hitter but he’s coming off two games in a row in which he took a no-no into the seventh inning. He was not to be denied the second time after throwing a 1-hitter the previous game and striking out 16 Brewers. Perhaps Scherzer dominates again but one thing we know for sure is that you cannot take the human element out of anything. Throwing a no-hitter is not only exhilarating but it’s also emotionally and physically draining. The no-hitter does not end after the game either. The media wants you. One is also bombarded with text messages, phone calls and requests for appearances and other things. It completely takes a pitcher out of his “normal routine” in preparation for his next start. For Max Scherzer, it had to be exceptionally draining from an emotional standpoint and if you’re not sure what we’re talking about you can read this incredible story regarding Max Scherzer here:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9130536/detroit-tigers-max-scherzer-pitches

Both emotionally and physically, Scherzer is an extremely unfavorable situation here and while it may not matter against the Phillies and Aaron Harang, the price, angle and situation makes it a worthy risk.

Minnesota +112 over MILWAUKEE
Trevor May went 3-6 with a 7.88 ERA in 46 innings for the Twins last season. His horrible MLB debut (2 IP, 4 ER, 7 BB) kicked off two months of struggles. May allowed 83 baserunners (.900 OPS against) in half as many innings pitched with shoddy control that plagued him throughout his minor league career. This year, May is just 4-5 in 13 starts with an ERA of 4.03 but he’s not as mediocre as he seems. May, the fairly unheralded prospect that was part of Minnesota's return package for trading Ben Revere to the Phillies has pitched modestly on the surface since joining the rotation in mid-April but there's more to him than meets the eye. While May's strike rate has remained consistent, his walk % has improved by leaps and bounds after years of problematic walk rates in the minors. He's also made some minor groundball gains, which pair nicely with his strikeout rate and control growth. May has experienced a mix of luck so far, as long balls have been suppressed while hit % and strand % have conspired to keep his ERA above 4.00 despite a promising 3.43 xERA over his last seven starts. Furthermore, May has posted the second-best skills of any starter in MLB away from home with 11.4 K’s/9 1.7 BB’s/9, 47% groundball rate and a 3.12 xERA. May’s 4.78 ERA on the road has been the result of a 36% hit rate and extremely low 55% strand rate. May’s surface stats on the road are due for a major correction to the good and we’ll gladly put that to the test against the Crew.

Kyle Lohse has made 15 starts this year. Half of those have come at hitter-friendly Miller Park, where Lohse has been ripped apart for 54 hits in 40 innings (.321 oppBA), 10 HR’s and an ERA of 8.48. Looking beneath the surface, none of this comes as a surprise when you consider that his skills have been progressively declining for years and it’s finally caught up to him. Doesn’t it always? Lohse’s line-drive rate over his past 40 starts dating back to last season is an alarming 24%. His groundball rate this year is at a career low 38%. Lohse appears to be getting weaker too. Over his last five starts he has posted a 1.58 WHIP, which is much higher than his season WHIP of 1.37. Either way, both numbers are poor. The Brewers will be looking to unload pieces all summer long. They are going absolutely nowhere and they sure aren’t going to get any buyers by sitting him. Regardless, nobody is buying Lohse and his 11M per year price tag but perhaps a pitching desperate contender with some injuries will pick him up in exchange for a practice ball. Lohse’s consistent reliability over the years makes his market value worth far more than it should be. The fact that Lohse and the Brewers are favored over the second place Twins and undervalued Trevor May tells us exactly what to do.
 

Member
Joined
Aug 1, 2005
Messages
1,315
Tokens
RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday300.00+8.92
Last 30 Days46500.00+12.32
Season to Date1141300.00+15.39

<tbody>
</tbody>

All plays are for 2 units
Listed pitchers must go

Texas +165 over TORONTO (SIA)
Nick Martinez has made 14 starts and comes in with a very misleading 2.77 ERA. A more accurate reading is his 4.54 xERA, which is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA. We’ve been studying ERA and xERA differences for years and we can absolutely guarantee you that Martinez will not be able to maintain this low an ERA much longer. There are more than a few blowups forthcoming for Martinez and in Toronto against this explosive offense, that day could be today but this isn’t about Martinez. It’s always about value.

Mark Buehrle is an amazing study. His pitching IQ has to be off the charts because he’s been fooling major league hitters for well over a decade with some of the most average stuff that you’ll ever see. Buehrle comes into every start with a plan that he never sways from. He works fast and he keeps the same composure throughout the entire outing whether he gives up four runs in an inning or zero runs. He reacts the same after a double-play as he does after surrendering a home run. Still, with an 83.6 mph heater and a 5% swing and miss rate, Buehrle is far too big a risk at prices like this to ignore betting against. Buehrle has far more value when being offered a price and you would probably have to dig very deep into the archives to find the last time he was priced in this range. Combine Buehrle’s 7-4 overall record and his 2-0 record with a 2.13 ERA over his last five starts with the fact that the Blue Jays are putting up sick offensive numbers at home and what you get is an unreasonable market overreaction. Regardless of outcome, Mark Buehrle cannot be favored in this range when he’s just as capable of a disaster start as he is of throwing a gem with a lot of mediocrity in between. We have no problem with ripping up our ticket should this one not pan out because we know we’re going with the best of it. With Buehrle on the hill, the Jays win expectation in any game cannot be more than 50%.

PHILADELPHIA +186 over Washington
Both Max Scherzer and Aaron Harang are familiar names that even the most casual baseball fan would recognize. Harang is familiar because he’s been around forever on several different teams while Scherzer’s familiarity is due to his greatness. This is a pitching mismatch in Scherzer’s favor but this isn’t about that. There’s one reason for this play and one reason only. Max Scherzer is coming off a no-hitter and we’ve been fading pitchers coming off that rare feat for as long as we can remember. That angle has had a great return over the years and so we cannot pick and choose when to apply it.

Not only is Scherzer coming off a no-hitter but he’s coming off two games in a row in which he took a no-no into the seventh inning. He was not to be denied the second time after throwing a 1-hitter the previous game and striking out 16 Brewers. Perhaps Scherzer dominates again but one thing we know for sure is that you cannot take the human element out of anything. Throwing a no-hitter is not only exhilarating but it’s also emotionally and physically draining. The no-hitter does not end after the game either. The media wants you. One is also bombarded with text messages, phone calls and requests for appearances and other things. It completely takes a pitcher out of his “normal routine” in preparation for his next start. For Max Scherzer, it had to be exceptionally draining from an emotional standpoint and if you’re not sure what we’re talking about you can read this incredible story regarding Max Scherzer here:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9130536/detroit-tigers-max-scherzer-pitches

Both emotionally and physically, Scherzer is an extremely unfavorable situation here and while it may not matter against the Phillies and Aaron Harang, the price, angle and situation makes it a worthy risk.

Minnesota +112 over MILWAUKEE
Trevor May went 3-6 with a 7.88 ERA in 46 innings for the Twins last season. His horrible MLB debut (2 IP, 4 ER, 7 BB) kicked off two months of struggles. May allowed 83 baserunners (.900 OPS against) in half as many innings pitched with shoddy control that plagued him throughout his minor league career. This year, May is just 4-5 in 13 starts with an ERA of 4.03 but he’s not as mediocre as he seems. May, the fairly unheralded prospect that was part of Minnesota's return package for trading Ben Revere to the Phillies has pitched modestly on the surface since joining the rotation in mid-April but there's more to him than meets the eye. While May's strike rate has remained consistent, his walk % has improved by leaps and bounds after years of problematic walk rates in the minors. He's also made some minor groundball gains, which pair nicely with his strikeout rate and control growth. May has experienced a mix of luck so far, as long balls have been suppressed while hit % and strand % have conspired to keep his ERA above 4.00 despite a promising 3.43 xERA over his last seven starts. Furthermore, May has posted the second-best skills of any starter in MLB away from home with 11.4 K’s/9 1.7 BB’s/9, 47% groundball rate and a 3.12 xERA. May’s 4.78 ERA on the road has been the result of a 36% hit rate and extremely low 55% strand rate. May’s surface stats on the road are due for a major correction to the good and we’ll gladly put that to the test against the Crew.

Kyle Lohse has made 15 starts this year. Half of those have come at hitter-friendly Miller Park, where Lohse has been ripped apart for 54 hits in 40 innings (.321 oppBA), 10 HR’s and an ERA of 8.48. Looking beneath the surface, none of this comes as a surprise when you consider that his skills have been progressively declining for years and it’s finally caught up to him. Doesn’t it always? Lohse’s line-drive rate over his past 40 starts dating back to last season is an alarming 24%. His groundball rate this year is at a career low 38%. Lohse appears to be getting weaker too. Over his last five starts he has posted a 1.58 WHIP, which is much higher than his season WHIP of 1.37. Either way, both numbers are poor. The Brewers will be looking to unload pieces all summer long. They are going absolutely nowhere and they sure aren’t going to get any buyers by sitting him. Regardless, nobody is buying Lohse and his 11M per year price tag but perhaps a pitching desperate contender with some injuries will pick him up in exchange for a practice ball. Lohse’s consistent reliability over the years makes his market value worth far more than it should be. The fact that Lohse and the Brewers are favored over the second place Twins and undervalued Trevor May tells us exactly what to do.

Boy was May awful. Not sure I've ever had a starter only last a third of an inning. Scherzer has given up a one hit through 6 so that is sort of an off night. Good luck this weekend.
 

your worst nightmare
Joined
Dec 22, 2008
Messages
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I would've never thought you'd follow a 3-0 ATS day with a 0-3 ATS one, but that's gambling. :grandmais

See you tomorrow! :toast:
 

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