Lines on the Move at the Nugget

There was a lot of line movement after the opening line came out at the Golden Nugget on Friday. Here is a list of some of the biggest movers.

Washington at Boise State from -13 to -8.5
Boise State at BYU from +6 to -1
Ga. Tech at Notre Dame -2 to -5.5
Colorado vs Colorado State* +1.5 to -5
Texas A&M vs Arkansas* -6.5 to -1.5
Florida at Missouri -10 to -5.5
Auburn at Arkansas -6.5 to -1.5
Arkansas at LSU -1.5 to -5
Georgia at Auburn Pk to -2.5
BYU at Utah State PK to +4
Ohio State at Michigan +16 to +13

This is just a sample, but a few things were noticed. BYU took a lot of action, as evidenced by their line movement. Talk around town is that many people think that BYU makes a big push to attract a Power 5 conference (probably the Big 12).

Arkansas does not have nearly the backing that the Nugget thought they would. People are still not buying that the Big 10 brand of football can succeed in the SEC.

Auburn is a popular choice because of the addition of DC Will Muschamp and a schedule that includes games at home against Georgia and Alabama. The 'Bama line dropped from 'Bama -3 to -2.5.

There was a rather large amount of line movement for such a short period of time. Some think that the reason why is because the amount of money needed to move the line dropped, after the losses that the Nugget took last season.

Injuries my friend...injuries!

BYU loses the quarterback for the season or a few weeks...they are toast.

Most don't right now but I back the Nugget with there read on Arkansas.

I think Arkansas and Texas A&M battle for the 4th spot in the SEC West. The two Mississippi's will battle for 6th and 7th. We faded Miss. State 4 times. Once at home and three times on the road.

Arkansas' sleeper link for the public is their quarterback. They are aware of the two RBs who rushed for 1000 plus last year but have NO clue about this kid at QB. He is tough as nails and entering his third year as the starter. I really like him to make a difference for the Razorbacks this season.

Please don't doubt me.....................

Arkansas is weak on defense and does not have a lot of depth. Their season will be defined by a three game stretch, against A&M in Arlington on 9/26, followed by away games at Tennessee and Alabama on the next two weeks. With a very soft non-con schedule, 8 wins should be no problem for the Hogs. As of now, we have no action on Arkansas either way.

BigdaddyQH said:

Arkansas is weak on defense and does not have a lot of depth. Their season will be defined by a three game stretch, against A&M in Arlington on 9/26, followed by away games at Tennessee and Alabama on the next two weeks. With a very soft non-con schedule, 8 wins should be no problem for the Hogs. As of now, we have no action on Arkansas either way.

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Will they be weak on D again? That's the question. Just like Texas A&M, Auburn, and South Carolina....they all brought in new DC's because they were "weak on defense". Just because a team is weak in one are one season does not necessarily mean they will be weak in that area the following year. Talent, depth, experience, coaching etc all plays a factor into it. I'm guessing Arkansas will be improved on D this year....how much? Who knows....but it's something Bielema has addressed.

Compared to other SEC West teams, I believe that Arkansas will have another weak defense. They have always had a weak defense since Bielema has been there. Last season they got hot, impressing many by shutting out Ole Miss and LSU at home. Then we saw exactly what LSU and Ole Miss had left in the tank when they went to their bowl games. LSU losing as a 7 point favorite and Ole Miss getting blown out by TCU. I am not a Bielema believer, so I will watch and see this season. One line I will be watching. Arkansas opened up -6 1/2 against A&M in Arlington. That line is now down to 1 1/2.

Wish I had been there to get some of that CU -1.5 over CSU. This will be the third year as coach for Mac @ CU and a revenge spot from last years loss to the Rams in Denver. Plus CSU will be breaking in a new coach and QB and will have a tough game the week before hosting Minnesota in Ft. Collins. I always thought this game was favorable to CSU when it was played as the first game of the year and they could prepare for it all summer. This year CU plays this game between scrimmages against UMass and Nichols State and is one of the few winnable games on their schedule.

BigdaddyQH said:

Compared to other SEC West teams, I believe that Arkansas will have another weak defense. They have always had a weak defense since Bielema has been there. Last season they got hot, impressing many by shutting out Ole Miss and LSU at home. Then we saw exactly what LSU and Ole Miss had left in the tank when they went to their bowl games. LSU losing as a 7 point favorite and Ole Miss getting blown out by TCU. I am not a Bielema believer, so I will watch and see this season. One line I will be watching. Arkansas opened up -6 1/2 against A&M in Arlington. That line is now down to 1 1/2.

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If I had hopped on A&M with the points at the start, even if the line moved to +1½ I'd sit tight and not go for a middle. Something about A&M makes me hesitate to fade them in this spot even with a gigantic line move their way. +2½ (A&M-2½) is still a close game and that's about how far I think I would let it go before it kept me up at night.