Somebody shine a light on SF/Miami game

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Good day fellow gamblers, excellent day for a wager or two. Every year we have a game that I say,' Where did this line come from.' Most of the time, a few games like this. SF and Miami, today, is one of those. How in the hell is SF the underdog here.(+108) Tremendous edge in all stats regarding Starter, bullpen and hitting. Maybe, I discount some intangibles too much(away travel) and Latos had an excellent outing vs. SF last time. I have a system involving about 30 numbers per game,to come up with a presumed score. SF is over 2.5 runs better than Miami. This is the biggest gap all season. Why shouldn't this be my biggest wager of the year? Thanks to all who reply. Best of luck to all!
 
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It's an interesting game and line. SF is clearly hitting the ball better. The starting pitching matchup looks fairly even. The only edge I see for the Marlins is the bullpen. SF's has been awful lately (last 10 5.19ERA/last 5 6.75ERA), meanwhile MIA's has been pretty solid recently. Vogelsong doesn't usually go more than 6 innings, so the Pen matchup needs to be factored in IMO.
 

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It's an interesting game and line. SF is clearly hitting the ball better. The starting pitching matchup looks fairly even. The only edge I see for the Marlins is the bullpen. SF's has been awful lately (last 10 5.19ERA/last 5 6.75ERA), meanwhile MIA's has been pretty solid recently. Vogelsong doesn't usually go more than 6 innings, so the Pen matchup needs to be factored in IMO.[/QUOTE Thank you for the input. I have SF pen at 3.31, 5.49 last 3. Miami at 3.91,3.86 last 3. Edge there to Miami, thanks. Good luck!
 

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Miami can't hit for jack since Stanton went out last week. Don't remember them scoring more then 2 or 3 every game last week.
 

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Bigtomdawg, exactly! Many days he was their offense! He is one hell of a ballplayer!
 

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Looking back at the marlins last 2 series against the cards and dodgers, they were actually short dogs in almost every game... which they lost... only game they won was against kershaw.. I don't get it?

Really don't know what's going on with this line.

Stanton is a monster. Basically is the offense, I agree.
 

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Ive mentioned before how I work (not as much lately) with Comcast Sports Bay. Ive work MANY giants games the past 3 years, only 1 game this year. But I know this team very well. The thing about the Giants is they are a streaky team. On the surface, many thing the Giants are hot hitting since coming off the Rockies series, however if you watched the game theyre not. THey have 2 hitters who are extremely hot in Posey and Duffy. Everyone else had 1 or 2 hits most in the series. AND those hits were not sharp clean hits. Some were dribblers getting through, some were bloops. Posey and Duffeys hits (all of them) were great contact hits.

I havent paid too much attention to Latos, but based off this line, I think the oddsmakers believe Latos neutralizes Posey and Duffeys RH bats. It is a weird line, but I dont think Vegas is giving away free money. I believe SF bats go cold here. Vogey has been sharp his last couple starts both of which Ive seen.
 

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Inittowinit, excellent point you made there! The total for the game tells the same story, at 7. SF has been unreal with run production the last 5-10 games. Neutralizing just those two SF bats would cut production way down. Thank you for the input!
 

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Just want to add that Belt (.417 in 12 AB) and Crawford (.300 in 10 AB) do hit Latos well and have been at least decent the past week (about .250).
Another thing to consider is the Giants offense has been a lot better on the road this season: .257, 145 runs scored in 41 games at home vs. .284, 184 runs in just 36 games on the road. The last 6 games were played at home.
I don't have a play on this game at the moment but good luck if you do!
 

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Just want to add that Belt (.417 in 12 AB) and Crawford (.300 in 10 AB) do hit Latos well and have been at least decent the past week (about .250).
Another thing to consider is the Giants offense has been a lot better on the road this season: .257, 145 runs scored in 41 games at home vs. .284, 184 runs in just 36 games on the road. The last 6 games were played at home.
I don't have a play on this game at the moment but good luck if you do!

Yes the giants offense is so much better on the road. Averaging more then 5 runs per game. It's quite ridiculous. The day off shouldn't hurt neither
 

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