[h=1]Money coming in on Jaguars', Broncos' win-total bets[/h]Graham McKean
The annual release of the NFL win totals (CG Technology was the first in Las Vegas in February) gives the betting world a first glimpse at how Vegas rates each team for the upcoming season, assigning a specific number of wins for every team and offering a vig, or price, you have to pay to bet over or under that line.
In looking over the opening and current win-total tables at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, there have been some big shifts since the Westgate released its totals in May.
Here are the five win totals that have been hit the hardest so far.
[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]<inline1-full style="box-sizing: border-box;"></inline1-full>
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</tbody></aside>Of all the the win totals, the most money at the Westgate has come in on the Jaguars over 5.5, which was mirrored at William Hill's 100-plus Nevada sportsbooks by totaling 7 percent of all win-total cash wagered there. So why did the over 5.5 vig actually drop from minus-170 to minus-145?
The move was more anticipatory than anything, and most of the wagers actually came in at minus-145 because the original minus-170 line was adjusted very early on. Ed Salmons of the Westgate explained, "The reason for the move on the Jags was more [Dante] Fowler getting hurt in camp than the money. We are still very bullish on the Jags this year."
This is the second straight year the public has vigorously bet the Jaguars over, moving the line last offseason from an opening position of over 4.5 wins (minus-150) to 5 wins (minus-135) -- huge movement by win-total standards. Obviously, their three victories in 2014 left a lot of people wishing they hadn't placed a bet.
So why does the public think that this season won't be a bad case of déjà vu? A second-year quarterback in Blake Bortles paired with new weapons in tight endJulius Thomas and No. 36 pick T.J. Yeldon at running back will give offensive coordinator Greg Olson some options in a new system. The Jags also come into 2015 with the eighth-easiest strength of schedule and two games against division rival Tennessee, a team slated by many in Vegas to be the worst in the league.
[h=2]Denver Broncos[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding-right: 15px; padding-left: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding-top: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important;">
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</tbody></aside>Denver has been an interesting case of the public leaning one way and the Westgate staying confident in its opening position. "Broncos got over money from the public," Salmons said, "but we view them as an old team that is way on the downhill side of things and don't like their chances." In other words, the Westgate feels the money coming in from the public isn't sharp and is willing to take the risk of Denver pulling off an 11-win-or-better season and the monetary losses that would follow.
The public might be onto something with the Broncos not being as old as they appear, though. Almost every one of their key skill players on offense (C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders) and defense (T.J. Ward,Von Miller and Danny Trevathan) is in his prime at 28 years old or younger.
But here's how the Broncos' age becomes a factor: The oldest and most important player on the team -- Peyton Manning -- is being protected by an offensive line that lost three of its key starters in 2014. All-Pro tackle Ryan Clady likely will miss all of 2015 with a torn ACL, guard Orlando Franklin left for San Diego in free agency and Manny Ramirez was traded to Detroit. That's where Vegas has a point; in the NFL it's not necessarily how old you are, but where you are old, and an unproven O-line could make Manning's age a factor down the stretch.
[h=2]San Francisco 49ers[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding-right: 15px; padding-left: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding-top: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important;">
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</tbody></aside>Where do we even begin with San Francisco's offseason implosion? A year and a half ago the 49ers were playing in their third straight NFC title game, and now they've lost many key players on both sides of the ball in a hemorrhage of talent. Future Hall of Fame linebacker Patrick Willis and his replacement -- promising young star Chris Borland -- both shocked the league with early retirements. Defensive lineman Justin Smith also called it a day after a fantastic career.
Then the free-agency losses piled up. All-Pro guard Mike Iupati went to division rival Arizona, all-time leading rusher Frank Gore left for Indianapolis and longtime No. 1 receiver Michael Crabtree is now a Raider. It comes as no surprise that books everywhere were trying to stay ahead of the curve with their evaluations.
William Hill took the third-most tickets on any win-total wager with the 49ers under 7, while the Westgate had to move the line from its opening position of 7.5 down to 7, despite an earlier attempt to quell the under action by adjusting the vig from minus-140 to minus-150 and beyond.
So did the Westgate anticipate just how low the public would value San Francisco? "The 49ers are a team that looks like a train wreck waiting to happen," Salmons said. "We are trying to be proactive in lowering their number to receive over money. So far we haven't found the bottom for them yet."
[h=2]Oakland Raiders[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding-right: 15px; padding-left: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding-top: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important;">
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</tbody></aside>The popularity of the Raiders over 5.5 wins at the Westgate must have come as a bit of a surprise, as the minus-140 opening vig clearly hinted it was anticipating action on the under. The Westgate wasn't the only one caught off guard, though -- it was also the most popular bet at William Hill by the number of tickets (13 percent of all win-total slips) and the second-most popular in terms of total money wagered.
It's clear now that the public believes in the Raiders' offseason moves, most notably drafting standout Alabama receiver Amari Cooper at No. 4. He's a much-needed weapon for quarterback Derek Carr and will be an instant playmaker alongside a veteran presence in Crabtree. The Raiders also shored up the interior of their defense by signing nose tackle Dan Williams and linebacker Curtis Lofton.
As a side note, if Oakland does pull off a miracle and win the Super Bowl at 250-1, it would mean a seven-figure futures loss for William Hill. The bet has been that popular.
[h=2]Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border: 0px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding: 0px !important;">
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</tbody></aside>The Vikings and Jets have the honor of being the only two teams with win totals that actually moved up, both advancing to 7.5 from opening positions of 7 at the Westgate. The bookmakers liked both teams initially and felt the public would back them, causing them to open both lines with moderately heavy vigs on the over (minus-130 for MIN, minus-140 for NYJ).
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</article>But as the money came in, it became evident that despite an aggressive evaluation, the public was still betting both teams in a big way -- it's easy to see why. The Vikings will once again have the services of All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson behind a talented run-blocking line, which regressed somewhat as a unit in 2014. If the guys up front can regain their form, it will pay huge dividends in aiding the growth process of Teddy Bridgewater, who was fantastic down the stretch last season.
The Jets' offseason was defined by a few very prolific moves. Coach Rex Ryan is gone, All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis is back and is sure to bolster a secondary that lacked playmakers last season, and Brandon Marshall is out to prove he still has a lot left in the tank.
With their defense likely to keep them in games (though Sheldon Richardon's four-game suspension could hurt), the Jets will count on quarterback Geno Smith making the leap to a consistent starter in the AFC East to take them over the top, but the division is loaded with defensive talent looking to prevent just that.
The annual release of the NFL win totals (CG Technology was the first in Las Vegas in February) gives the betting world a first glimpse at how Vegas rates each team for the upcoming season, assigning a specific number of wins for every team and offering a vig, or price, you have to pay to bet over or under that line.
In looking over the opening and current win-total tables at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, there have been some big shifts since the Westgate released its totals in May.
Here are the five win totals that have been hit the hardest so far.
[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]<inline1-full style="box-sizing: border-box;"></inline1-full>
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| WINS | OVER | UNDER | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 5.5 | -170 | +150 |
| Current | 5.5 | -145 | +125 |
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The move was more anticipatory than anything, and most of the wagers actually came in at minus-145 because the original minus-170 line was adjusted very early on. Ed Salmons of the Westgate explained, "The reason for the move on the Jags was more [Dante] Fowler getting hurt in camp than the money. We are still very bullish on the Jags this year."
This is the second straight year the public has vigorously bet the Jaguars over, moving the line last offseason from an opening position of over 4.5 wins (minus-150) to 5 wins (minus-135) -- huge movement by win-total standards. Obviously, their three victories in 2014 left a lot of people wishing they hadn't placed a bet.
So why does the public think that this season won't be a bad case of déjà vu? A second-year quarterback in Blake Bortles paired with new weapons in tight endJulius Thomas and No. 36 pick T.J. Yeldon at running back will give offensive coordinator Greg Olson some options in a new system. The Jags also come into 2015 with the eighth-easiest strength of schedule and two games against division rival Tennessee, a team slated by many in Vegas to be the worst in the league.
[h=2]Denver Broncos[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding-right: 15px; padding-left: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding-top: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important;">
| WINS | OVER | UNDER | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 10 | -130 | +110 |
| Current | 10 | -130 | +110 |
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The public might be onto something with the Broncos not being as old as they appear, though. Almost every one of their key skill players on offense (C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders) and defense (T.J. Ward,Von Miller and Danny Trevathan) is in his prime at 28 years old or younger.
But here's how the Broncos' age becomes a factor: The oldest and most important player on the team -- Peyton Manning -- is being protected by an offensive line that lost three of its key starters in 2014. All-Pro tackle Ryan Clady likely will miss all of 2015 with a torn ACL, guard Orlando Franklin left for San Diego in free agency and Manny Ramirez was traded to Detroit. That's where Vegas has a point; in the NFL it's not necessarily how old you are, but where you are old, and an unproven O-line could make Manning's age a factor down the stretch.
[h=2]San Francisco 49ers[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding-right: 15px; padding-left: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding-top: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important;">
| WINS | OVER | UNDER | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 7.5 | +120 | -140 |
| Current | 7 | +110 | -130 |
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Then the free-agency losses piled up. All-Pro guard Mike Iupati went to division rival Arizona, all-time leading rusher Frank Gore left for Indianapolis and longtime No. 1 receiver Michael Crabtree is now a Raider. It comes as no surprise that books everywhere were trying to stay ahead of the curve with their evaluations.
William Hill took the third-most tickets on any win-total wager with the 49ers under 7, while the Westgate had to move the line from its opening position of 7.5 down to 7, despite an earlier attempt to quell the under action by adjusting the vig from minus-140 to minus-150 and beyond.
So did the Westgate anticipate just how low the public would value San Francisco? "The 49ers are a team that looks like a train wreck waiting to happen," Salmons said. "We are trying to be proactive in lowering their number to receive over money. So far we haven't found the bottom for them yet."
[h=2]Oakland Raiders[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding-right: 15px; padding-left: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding-top: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important;">
| WINS | OVER | UNDER | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 5.5 | +120 | -140 |
| Current | 5.5 | EVEN | -120 |
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It's clear now that the public believes in the Raiders' offseason moves, most notably drafting standout Alabama receiver Amari Cooper at No. 4. He's a much-needed weapon for quarterback Derek Carr and will be an instant playmaker alongside a veteran presence in Crabtree. The Raiders also shored up the interior of their defense by signing nose tackle Dan Williams and linebacker Curtis Lofton.
As a side note, if Oakland does pull off a miracle and win the Super Bowl at 250-1, it would mean a seven-figure futures loss for William Hill. The bet has been that popular.
[h=2]Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets[/h]<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border: 0px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; padding: 0px !important;">
| WINS | MIN OVER | MIN UNDER | NYJ OVER | NYJ UNDER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 7 | -130 | +110 | -140 | +120 |
| Current | 7.5 | -120 | EVEN | -150 | +130 |
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</article>But as the money came in, it became evident that despite an aggressive evaluation, the public was still betting both teams in a big way -- it's easy to see why. The Vikings will once again have the services of All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson behind a talented run-blocking line, which regressed somewhat as a unit in 2014. If the guys up front can regain their form, it will pay huge dividends in aiding the growth process of Teddy Bridgewater, who was fantastic down the stretch last season.
The Jets' offseason was defined by a few very prolific moves. Coach Rex Ryan is gone, All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis is back and is sure to bolster a secondary that lacked playmakers last season, and Brandon Marshall is out to prove he still has a lot left in the tank.
With their defense likely to keep them in games (though Sheldon Richardon's four-game suspension could hurt), the Jets will count on quarterback Geno Smith making the leap to a consistent starter in the AFC East to take them over the top, but the division is loaded with defensive talent looking to prevent just that.
