Current Wimbledon Betting Odds (As Of Sunday 6/5/15)

5dimes

Stan gets no respect at +1000.....I think he`s the 2nd best player in the world behind the Joker.

Excellent thread, my friend.

Very true about Stan. But he looks to have the toughest road out of anybody, IMO. Goffin can beat him. Then he could face Kyrgios, then Djok, then likely Murray in the final.

I hate to say it, but Murray is playing the absolute best right now. I can't stand the guy, but he looks too good.



Let us first cancel out those who WILL NOT win it:



This leaves us with:





There are only 7 players, IMO, who can win Wimbledon. Ivo really shouldn't be in there. However, if he got hold of the perfect storm with that serve, he could tiebreak everybody to death. The odds are extremely long and I think it's far more unlikely than +17500, but keeping that in there because we all must remember these eternal words:

VICTOR HANESCU AND ROB GINEPRI BOTH MADE A GRAND SLAM SEMI-FINAL #%()

So we've got 6.5 players left. Let us now be realistic. We discard Ivo. And then we take out Kyrgios. Yes, he has the monster serve, but he would get exposed and annihilated by Djok or Murray.

This leaves us with the remaining players who, not so coincidentally, have all won a slam:

Djok
Murray
Fed
Wawa
Cilic

Now let us go a step further. Of all these remaining players, who has the toughest road? IMO, that is easily Wawa. I fully expect Kyrgios to beat Casket. If Wawa gets past Goffin, then Kyrgios could pull the big surprise on Gasquet. But I don't believe it will be that big of a surprise or that fat of a dog. I mean, look at Wawa > Goffin odds. He's only a -450 fave. Anyways, out goes Wawa:


Djok +120
Murray +255
Fed +565
Cilic +6600


Now, Djok is the best in the world... but something is wrong with him, IMO. Yes, I know, most complete player and if at his maximum level, nobody can beat him. However, since the beginning of his career he has been a mental midget. And this bears out in his slam finals record. It is atrocious. He could put in the dumpster by Nishikori and Stan when he was a clear fave for both matches. Yes, Stan was beasting...... but the point is that sometimes and somehow Djoko King just disappears. But the real point is this, though:

Can you back Djok to make it to the final and then beat Murray ... all at +120 odds? Zero value. And if Djoko were to play Murray today in the final, I wouldn't back him at +120. And that's just today.

We take out Fed. Unfortunately, hasn't won a slam since 2012 and it's only 1 in 5 years? Something like that. I'm afraid that he'd lose to Murray in the semis and, even if he makes it to the finals, he'd lose to Djoko. He would need to not face Djoko and somehow get into the finals. I'm his biggest fan, but even with cakewalk recent draws where they built a perfect path for him, he couldn't get it done. Too much traffic with Murray and Djok this time.


So all that's left is Murray +255 and Cliic +6600. Zero value on Murray at that price, although I believe he could definitely win it all.

So for me, the only way I can guarantee fun and profit:


FIRST WE DO THIS:

7/6/2015 9:30 AM ATP Tennis 329 Marin Cilic* -595 vs Denis Kudla
Risking $119.00 To Win $20.00


AND THEN WE DO THIS:

ATP Tennis Wimbledon : Marin Cilic +6600
all players have action
Risking $16.00 To Win $1,056.00



Kudla is not beating Cilic. I'll take that risk for $119 for those 20 bucks. And we roll that in to a "free ticket" on Cilic that also pays us $4.00. So now we've got a free ticket that says Cilic for a grand. If he somehow advances far, maybe we can do some hedging.