Trying to build the "perfect" MLB system. Need 5 guys to participate!

jersey_dude · Jul 5, 2015

Like I said in the title.

....I have this little plan in my mind for many days, and doesn't lets me sleep well. This could be / should be working out really good!

====================

We will need 5 good enough MLB cappers to participate. Guys who in the long run would hit about 53% winners on average -110 odds. Even that would be enough. Just don't be a loser in the long run.

Other important aspects:

Try to not lose more than 4 picks in row (4 losing days in row). I know it's almost impossible... every once in a while we all will lose as much as 6 in row, or even 7.
Try to not give picks on odds worst than -145. When the line is worst that that, go runline (-1, -1.5, +1, +1.5).

We will use lines and odds from 5 Dimes. In case if the line (ML or runline) is not up yet we should use Pinnacle, mentioning this. They usually have all the needed odds up even at 6:00 AM ET, any day.

jersey_dude · Jul 5, 2015

How it's going to work?

All the 5 cappers who will participate will give just a single pick per day.
Their best pick for the day. Try to give a pick for each day with MLB games.

All picks should go for to win 1 unit, so don't bother to put units with the picks.
Send all picks to my PM, following this schedule (very important!):

Weekdays:
- for games which are day games (start before 7:00 PM ET) send me the PM latest until 6:15 AM.
- for games which are evening/night games (start earliest at 7:00 PM) send me the PM latest until 5:30 PM.
Saturdays, Sundays and official US holidays:
- send me the PM latest until 9:30 AM (no matter when the start time is)

Why to send the picks to my PM and not post here directly?
2 big reasons: This way nobody will be influenced by others' picks, because can't see those picks before I will post in the thread, and the thread will be a lot more "clean".

Some examples how to write your pick:

Atlanta -109 / Miller (vs Philadelphia / Hamels) @ 1:35 PM - if both listed pitchers
Atlanta -109 / Miller (vs Philadelphia) @ 1:35 PM - if list one pitcher
Atlanta -109 (vs Philadelphia) @ 1:35 PM - if action
Chi. Cubs -1 +110 (vs Miami) @ 2:20 PM
Kansas City -1.5 +135 (vs Minnesota) @ 2:10 PM

After the time schedules for sending the picks are up, I will check my PM (after 6:15 AM and 5:30 PM on weekdays and after 9:30 AM on weekends/holidays).

Then, I will post all picks in this thread updated with the odds at that time, latest until 6:45 AM / 6:00 PM / 10:00 AM (all 5 cappers will be mentioned besides their individual picks). Plus I will also post a system based on all these picks.

The system will be composed from 5 Labby lines applied to each of the 5 cappers. Of course when there may be 2 or 3 guys on the same play, these will be added up, or if they'll have contrary plays those will be calculated accordingly.

I will start with these Labby lines on each capper:
0.5% / 0.5% / 0.5% (to win, % is from the total bankroll)

So 1 Labby series closed will bring in a 1.5% bankroll increase.
We'll have 5 cappers, and if each of them brings in just an average of 2.5 Labby line wins per month (that should be perfectly realizable even in a not so good month!) that would give us 1.5*5*2.5 = 18.75% bankroll increase per month. In very safe conditions.

A more aggressive variant on these Labbys would be that after any initial win to not going to close the line with the remaining 0.5% to win, but start a new Labby. We can decide if we'll go with this.

jersey_dude · Jul 5, 2015

This is the plan. Let's do this! @)

Post in the thread those who will want to participate (not PM), and we'll select the 5 guys if we'll be more.

===============

If the results will be as expected, we should do this for NBA too.

jersey_dude · Jul 5, 2015

No takers yet?
True it was only 2 hours since I've posted.

I'll check back in the evening.

boss415 · Jul 5, 2015

I would be a taker but am having a terrible run this year. On a break right now to hopefully turn it around

jersey_dude · Jul 5, 2015

boss415 said:
I would be a taker but am having a terrible run this year. On a break right now to hopefully turn it around

Welcome, you're the first to break the ice.
(<)<
Anyways, may take a few day until the 5 cappers are gathered.

jersey_dude · Jul 5, 2015

Giving just 1 pick per day for a setup like this can be a bitch some times.
May be frustrating if you have a few positive days in row, if having multiple picks, and the picks given here are all losers in those days. Of course the scenario can go exactly in the opposed way too.

The Labby money management should take care of things (plus starting with small enough units). In the long run in worst case only 1/3 of the given picks need to be winners and things will still work out OK.

sunshine11 · Jul 5, 2015

dd will join you.

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

sunshine11 said:
dd will join you.

OK, that makes 3 people "in".
I got a play already from "metfan" (I read it a few minutes ago), but I replied him that we'll start only when we'll be in a full team.

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

But what the heck... if you guys (boss and sunshine) are PM-ing me a play til 5:30 ET, we can start today too...

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

sunshine, I see that you can't get and send PM-s, so how we're going to work it out?

sunshine11 · Jul 6, 2015

Hmm maybe I have to many friends.

For tonight. I like Milw. -147 ML

jwhite · Jul 6, 2015

You might be better to take the opposite of my play! But I like the Pirates. Know the line is moving the wrong way but I just think Shields and the Padres are both overrated. The Pirates' record is over inflated too but I'll take Burnett -120 at home all day long! Good luck man.

varkeyboy · Jul 6, 2015

Good luck Jersey.

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

jwhite said:
You might be better to take the opposite of my play! But I like the Pirates. Know the line is moving the wrong way but I just think Shields and the Padres are both overrated. The Pirates' record is over inflated too but I'll take Burnett -120 at home all day long! Good luck man.

Ok, Thanks.

This means you're in too, right?
From tomorrow pls, send the pick to me through PM.

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

1 more guy needed, but we have 4 plays for today, good enough to start.

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

Monday, July 6:

jwhite: Pittsburgh -112 (Burnett) @ 7:05
boss415: Cleveland -120 @ 7:10
sunshine11: Milwaukee -146 @ 8:10
metfan: San Francisco -1 +112 @ 10:15

System:
1.12% to win 1%: Pittsburgh -112 (Burnett)
1.2% to win 1%: Cleveland -120
1.46% to win 1%: Milwaukee -146
0.9% to win 1.008%: San Francisco -1 +112

jwhite · Jul 6, 2015

Sure and thx. Someone tell me how to pm!?!

jersey_dude · Jul 6, 2015

Note:

For the San Fran game Heston/Niese must start.

bones1980 · Jul 6, 2015

I will join if u need another

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