The best selections.

RunMaker · Jul 8, 2015

This will be my thread where I'll just post my best selections. Other threads will be for crack-fiend activity.

As posted in my other thread:

PICK #1:

Pending	4 Team Parlay
		Pending	7/7/15 1:30am International Basketball 1521 USA (Universiade)/Chile (Universiade) Under 150½ -120*
		Pending	7/7/15 9:30pm International Soccer 22 USA (Gold-Cup) -214* vs Honduras (Gold-Cup)
		Pending	7/8/15 8:00am ATP Tennis 202 Andy Murray -2100* vs Vasek Pospisil
		Pending	7/7/15 9:30am WTA Tennis 701 Serena Williams -345* vs Victoria Azarenka

+263 odds

1.00/2.63

RunMaker · Jul 8, 2015

PICK #2:

Pending	2 Team Parlay
		Pending	7/8/15 1:30am International Basketball 1539 Switzerland (Universiade)/Chile (Universiade) Under 127½ -110*
		Pending	7/8/15 10:00am ATP Tennis 151 Stanislas Wawrinka -210* vs Richard Gasquet

+181 odds

1.00/1.81

RunMaker · Jul 8, 2015

I'll do combos, straight plays, teasers, whatever. Always risk 1.00 or to win 1.00.

For Pick #2 it's the same story. Chile is terribly offensively. Maximum 55 pts in this game. That leaves 72 for Switzerland. But I highly doubt Chile will get 55 pts. All their games have been under. This one shouldn't be an different.

Gasquet was 2-16 in Rd. 4 of slams up until Monday. And on Monday he met a clown. Learned a great deal about Kyrgios and about how good a tennis player he will be in the future. Whether he will surpass Monfils in levels of clownage, I don't know. Anyways, the point of Gas's low performance level in the later rounds of slams is that that is his maximum level, more or less.

Anyways, Wawa is still beasting. He will go 3-0 or 3-1 on Gas. And Chile will take the under.

RunMaker · Jul 10, 2015

RunMaker said:
PICK #1:

Pending 4 Team Parlay

Pending 7/7/15 1:30am International Basketball 1521 USA (Universiade)/Chile (Universiade) Under 150½ -120*

Pending 7/7/15 9:30pm International Soccer 22 USA (Gold-Cup) -214* vs Honduras (Gold-Cup)

Pending 7/8/15 8:00am ATP Tennis 202 Andy Murray -2100* vs Vasek Pospisil

Pending 7/7/15 9:30am WTA Tennis 701 Serena Williams -345* vs Victoria Azarenka

+263 odds

1.00/2.63

1. USA/Chile -- 106-41
2. USA/Hond -- 2-1
3. Murray -- 3-0
4. Williams -- 2-1

1-0, +2.63

RunMaker · Jul 10, 2015

RunMaker said:
PICK #2:

Pending
2 Team Parlay

Pending 7/8/15 1:30am International Basketball 1539 Switzerland (Universiade)/Chile (Universiade) Under 127½ -110*

Pending 7/8/15 10:00am ATP Tennis 151 Stanislas Wawrinka -210* vs Richard Gasquet

+181 odds

1.00/1.81

1. Swi/Chile -- 57-48
2. Gasquet -- 3-2

1-1, +1.63

Bit of a surprise there with the Wawa loss. It seems odd to say this of Wawa, but when he goes beasting he can be the #1 player in the world. And given Gasquet's history of being a soft vagina, it was a surprise to see Wawa tank the match up 2-1 sets.

My initial impression was that the price for Wawa was incredible. But often times when such is the case, it is b/c something is definitively wrong with the match. And such was the case.

It also came in to consideration the concept of price vs. quality. For my liking it is not good to go from the perspective of price over the perspective of quality. For example, 'Ah, Sharapova +800 > Williams... this looks good. A great price.' But in reality Pova > Williams is a loser any way you slice it. One has to move from the quality of the offering to the consideration of the price. This was my main mistake in this match. I was drawn in by the quality of the price rather than the assessment of the quality of the wager.

RunMaker · Jul 10, 2015

PICK #3:

Murray/Federer Under 45, -140

1.40/1.00

RunMaker · Jul 10, 2015

RunMaker said:
PICK #3:

Murray/Federer Under 45, -140

1.40/1.00

1. Fed 20-14 games -- 7-5, 7-5, 6-4

2-1, +2.63

I have a theory on this exact type of wager in this exact type of situation. Over time the frequency of it winning is just too good, according to my notes. This time got a little bit fortunate as the serving was impeccable from both sides. You might not think that about Murray in this match, but Fed was playing Goat-level stuff. So Murray accounted for himself extremely well.

Still a bit miffed about the Wawa loss. Gasquet was trash against Djokovic in the semi and Wawa definitely would've pushed Djok in the semis.

RunMaker · Jul 11, 2015

PICK #4:

7/11/2015 1:30 AM International Basketball 1519 Chile (Universiade)/Japan (Universiade)* Under 126½ -120
7/11/2015 9:00 AM WTA Tennis 714 G.Muguruza Games Won* +6½ -240 vs S.Williams Games Won

+160 odds

1.00/1.60

Another combo? Ahhhhh, yes. Sigh. Chile 5-0 on their unders. Can't score, 5 minute droughts, same story. Japan installed as 18-pt faves. Give Japan 73 pts max. That'd put Chile at 55. Maximum Chile has scored is 48 pts in a game. They're not getting 55 pts They had their game yesterday with 38 pts in the 1Q, and then had just 88 to spare for the rest of the 3 quarters..... The game still went under by 7 pts.

Love Mugs chances to win SU tmrw. Williams has been subconsciously bringing the drama to all her matches.... making them extremely dramatic with all the fake bullshit. O/c, she doesn't realize she's doing it. If she does that, Mugs can put her in the trash can... so I hope she's careful. Either way, that fat spread should cover easy. Worst-case by a half-game. If it loses, it would lose by a half. Take those chances.

RunMaker · Jul 11, 2015

RunMaker said:
PICK #4:

7/11/2015 1:30 AM International Basketball 1519 Chile (Universiade)/Japan (Universiade)* Under 126½ -120

7/11/2015 9:00 AM WTA Tennis 714 G.Muguruza Games Won* +6½ -240 vs S.Williams Games Won

+160 odds

1.00/1.60

1. Chile/Japan -------- 65-62
2. Williams (12-8) --- 6-4, 6-4

2-2, +1.63

Well, I've got to do a little bit of complaining here. Chile total loses on the last bucket of the game, a 3-pointer by Kristina Yamaguchi. Lost by a half point.
I was a little late to the party and so didn't get the 127.5. That was the only 3-ptr that Japan made in the entire 4th quarter.

They went absolutely bonkers in the 2nd quarter for 48 points and made almost 10 3-ptrs.

Anyways, it is what it is. If this same thing popped up on the board again, I'd bet it in the same way. More times than not it'd win and it'd be a +160 payout.

O/c, I must say that these 2 losses are a bit on the ridiculous side. The last Grand Slam champion leading 2-1 sets against a French tart and can't finish the job. And then the Chile game, 0-5 on the unders and zero offensive production, loses by a half point on a 3-ball at the end of the game.

RunMaker · Jul 12, 2015

Well, under 46.0 (-170) is the play in the Fed/Djok, but I can't jump in at that price.

It surely can go 5 sets, but I don't believe that will happen. (Under 4.5 sets is -265)

If could make a combo out of and reduce the price to + or better, I'd do it. But there is nothing guaranteed in other sports. And -170 standing on it's own is too hefty a price that does not come with a likely guarantee for the wager that goes with it.

Likely make a live wager. Believe Fed wins this and favor Fed -1.5 sets at +165.

RunMaker · Jul 16, 2015

That under would've cashed.... even though 2 TB's in the 1st 2 sets. That angle is always solid and tough for it to get beat.

Anyways, this is a very good bet as well, IMO. However, it's not lock material so can't 100% recommend it as such. Just a suggestion here.

7/17/15 12:30am Davis Cup Tennis 1521 N.Kyrgios Games Won/A.Nedovyesov Games Won Over 31 -135*

Tomic just got arrested. Kokkinakis is getting blasted 3-0 sets to Kukushkin. Kyrgios quit in the 2nd set vs Gasquet and pouted like a baby. Whatever happened to great Australia? For years we had the fighter Hewitt on the court fighting nobly to the death. Not sure what this present class of Aussie tennis is about, but it light years from what the past used to be.

Anyways, Kyrgios will likely have a hangover after his "media" issue in Wimbledon. A dip is to be expected. He is, no offense to him, inherently lazy and we won't see a "Nadal-type" effort in this match. For this to lose he has to roll Nedov 3-0 sets and easily. On this court this won't be easy.

Nedov has good wins against good players and has taken a set off Berdych in a slam. Highest ranking is 72 and currently in the 120's. But a 100 level player in the ATP can beat a top player if the top player doesn't show up. In the WTA it's a different scenario as the talent gap is massive. Anyways, Kyrgios' ranking of around 40 is befitting of him.

Here's the deal. All Nedov has to do is get to a TB and this should at least push:

6-3, 7-6, 6-3.

But Kyrgios won't have it that easy and won't be double-breaking, IMO. Very good shot for Nedov to grab a set and blast this total out of the water. Anyways, this 31 can easily be reached in 3 sets.

RunMaker · Jul 16, 2015

Again, not an official pick. Just a suggestion.

RunMaker · Jul 17, 2015

Djok > Fed: .................... 7-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 --- 26-19 --- 45 games

Nedov > Kyrgios: ............ 7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 --- 26-23 --- 49 games

Kyrgios? What was that... -1800 odds?

RunMaker · Jul 19, 2015

US playing no defense here. Even against DomRep they stopped playing 'D' and just did matador action after the 1st quarter. The US will get their own points. Cuba can score. If they dump in 73 or more in the 1H, this will go over.

Greinke 5,000 consecutive innings w/ 0 runs scored. Scherzer tossing as well. A little risky as it's after the ASB so there could be a disruption in the rhythm, but expect a low-scoring game with lots of donuts.

PICK #5:

7/19/2015 1:30 PM International Basketball 1583 Cuba (Pan American - Women)/USA (Pan American - Women)* Over 147 -110
7/19/2015 1:30 PM Props Baseball 2904 LOS/WAS no score 1st inn* -190 vs LOS/WAS score 1st inn yes
Fixed Price
Z.Greinke & M.Scherzer must start for action

+191 odds

1.00/1.91

RunMaker · Jul 19, 2015

fucking bitch made 2 clutch ft's at the end to not send it to OT. needed one make, one miss. that killed the over. damn

RunMaker · Jul 20, 2015

Champ game. Two best scoring teams, both can fill it up. Canada is particularly explosive. US got slowed down by Cuba in the semis and the coach did not adjust... thus the low pts output. All their other games went over. Horrible coaching, really. Anyways, Canada favored by 6, but either team could win. And at least one team should finish in the 70s... and don't expect a one-possession game at end. Should be some fouling.

Goffin will advance.

PICK #6:

7/20/2015 8:45 PM International Basketball 1503 USA (Pan American - Women)/Canada (Pan American - Women)* Over 142½ -110
7/22/2015 5:00 AM ATP Tennis 501 David Goffin* -400 vs Benoit Paire

+139 odds

1.00/1.39

RunMaker · Jul 21, 2015

RunMaker said:
PICK #5:

7/19/2015 1:30 PM International Basketball 1583 Cuba (Pan American - Women)/USA (Pan American - Women)* Over 147 -110

7/19/2015 1:30 PM Props Baseball 2904 LOS/WAS no score 1st inn* -190 vs LOS/WAS score 1st inn yes
Fixed Price
Z.Greinke & M.Scherzer must start for action

+191 odds

1.00/1.91

1. Cuba/USA -------- 64-65
2. LAD/WAS --- 0-0

2-3, +0.63

Greinke total was easy. Now 6 million innings in a row with no runs. The problem was the US game. I've been riding US and Slovakia overs in these two particular tourneys and the overs have cashed in every single game. Well, except that this Cuba/USA game was the one game between the two (maybe 9-1 for the overs, I believe) that didn't go over.

The coach looked like a strung out crack whore and made zero adjustments. That 2nd quarter was all on the coach. It was comical to watch. In any event, they had a chance to push it to OT, but they were stuck on a 1-pt differential till the end and the lady made 2 clutch ft's. I would say that this selection was the first 'pure' loss. Somewhat ironic that this would be the one game where I post the over and it doesn't go over, but it is what it is.

The next one should hit (#6). Just waiting on Goffin to win. I believe he's ranked #14 in the world. He should keep on rising in the ranking. In Bastad this is the first time he's the #1 seed for a tourney.

He's an easy top 10 for the future in the ATP. I believe at some point he'll sneak into a slam semi in the future. Just have a feeling. And if Ginepri (#15 best) and Hanescu (#26) can sneak into a slam semi, no reason why Goffin can't do it. Especially with more talent and upside.

RunMaker · Jul 22, 2015

Initially in at -7.5. Canada 'A' TEAM vs. Argentina 'C' TEAM. Double-digit win.

PICK #7:

7/22/15 6:00pm International Basketball 1526 Canada (Pan American) -7½ -110* vs Argentina (Pan American)

RunMaker · Jul 24, 2015

oh the irony. won absolutely every wager in last 48 hrs except for the Goffin match. and the only loss prior to that was the Can side > Arg. lolz

update later

RunMaker · Aug 9, 2015

RunMaker said:
PICK #5:

7/19/2015 1:30 PM International Basketball 1583 Cuba (Pan American - Women)/USA (Pan American - Women)* Over 147 -110

7/19/2015 1:30 PM Props Baseball 2904 LOS/WAS no score 1st inn* -190 vs LOS/WAS score 1st inn yes
Fixed Price
Z.Greinke & M.Scherzer must start for action

+191 odds

1.00/1.91

1. Cuba/USA -------- 65-64
2. LOS/WAS --- 0-0

2-3, +0.63

Cuba/USA total wasn't close. Had a shot at OT, but the total was called wrong. Legitimate loss.