[h=1]Best midseason divisional, World Series value bets[/h]
Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
LAS VEGAS -- If the first half of the season is any indication, we should be in for an exciting rest of the baseball season and playoffs.
Here at ESPN Insider, Joe Peta is doing individual midseason updates on all 30 teams and how to bet them in the second half, while yours truly will take a look at the bigger picture and search for value in the future-book odds.
The National League has pretty much held true to preseason expectations, as theWashington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers were sizable favorites to win their respective divisions, and all three are seemingly in control at the All-Star break. Even the current wild-card teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, and the teams chasing them -- the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets -- are pretty much in line with their preseason odds.
The American League is a vastly different story, as the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels were favored to win their divisions but only the Angels are in first place at the break (and they barely caught the Houston Astrosby making up five games in the AL West standings by going 7-3 in their last 10 while the Astros went 2-8). The Red Sox and Tigers are the two biggest underachievers this season, as the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royalslead the AL East and AL Central, respectively, and are odds-on favorites to win their divisions (Yankees at 10-11 and Royals at 1-7).
The two biggest overachievers so far in the AL are the Astros and Twins, who in the preseason were 60-1 and 100-1 World Series long shots at the Westgate, respectively, while also having among the lowest over/under win totals at 76 and 73.5, respectively. Yet they would be the AL's wild cards if the season were to end today.
As we come out of the All-Star break, the Royals are the 9-2 World Series favorite at the Westgate (and just got the added bonus of home-field advantage in the World Series with the AL's 6-3 win over the NL in the All-Star Game). The Cardinals, Dodgers and Nationals are next at 6-1, followed by the Pirates (8-1), Yankees (12-1), Angels (14-1), Cubs (16-1), Giants and Mets (both at 20-1) and Twins, Astros and Orioles (all at 25-1).
So where is the best betting value? Let's take a look at the odds and break down the best World Series and divisional bets.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=3]Betting World Series futures[/h]As a rule, futures aren't a good bet because the best teams have the lowest prices, and then books will shade each team's odds lower than their true odds. But if anyone out there grabbed the Twins at 20-1 to win the AL Central or 100-1 to win the World Series, or the Astros at 15-1 to win the AL West or 60-1 to win the World Series, kudos on finding some live long shots.
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</tfoot></aside>And it worked out for yours truly last year, as I pegged the San Francisco Giants at 20-1 before the season started in the 2014 MLB Betting Guide and then again at the All-Star break (and when the playoffs started and in each subsequent series). In this year's preview, I again believed that the Giants were the best betting value on the board at 20-1 and also tabbed the Tigers as my top play in the AL at 18-1. So who do I think are worthy of a play as we come out of the All-Star break? Here are my picks:
San Francisco Giants (20-1): Yep, I'm going to continue to tout them, but not just because they came through for me last year. This season, we've seen flashes of brilliance as they look like the championship team that they are, but they've also been inconsistent. That has kept them from keeping up with the Dodgers or taking control of the wild-card race. But there's no doubt that if they make the postseason, they have the pitching to again be a matchup problem for any team. And they're still available at 20-1 because of the uncertainty of getting to the postseason.
Los Angeles Angels (14-1): Even though the Tigers are up to 30-1, I don't like their chances of even getting to the playoffs (they're 3.5 games behind in the wild-card chase, and even if they were to catch either the Twins or Astros, they'd also have to prevail over the AL East also-rans). The Angels are in a much better spot. They've caught and passed the Astros and look like their talent and experience should help them prevail in the AL West and avoid the wild-card route.
[h=3]Betting divisional futures[/h]If you're not sure about backing a team to win the World Series, sometimes it makes more sense to just bet it to win its division or the league pennant. Let's look at a few potential divisional plays:
AL EAST
YANKEES 10-11
RAYS 11-2
ORIOLES 11-2
BLUE JAYS 4-1
RED SOX 10-1
This is the most wide-open division in baseball, with just 6.5 games separating first from last. If you really believe the Yankees are the class of the division, their 10-11 odds aren't prohibitive. If you believe the Red Sox will eventually jell and be the best team in the division like they were projected before the season, they're 10-1.
AL CENTRAL
ROYALS 1-7
TWINS 5-1
TIGERS 25-1
INDIANS 40-1
WHITE SOX 100-1
AL WEST
ANGELS 4-5
ASTROS 8-5
MARINERS 12-1
RANGERS 15-1
A'S 25-1
If you missed out on the Twins and Astros when they were flying under the radar, now isn't the time to bet them, as they're only 5-1 and 8-5 to win their respective divisions.
NL EAST
NATIONALS 1-10
METS 9-2
BRAVES 50-1
MARLINS 300-1
PHILLIES 5,000-1
The Nationals have the best overall team in the division, but the Mets trail by just two games, so their 9-2 odds look like an overlay.
NL CENTRAL
CARDINALS 1-4
PIRATES 3-1
CUBS 15-1
REDS 1,000-1
BREWERS 5,000-1
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</article>The Cardinals have been the best team in the majors all season; however, the Pirates are just 2.5 games out of the lead after winning three of four from the Cards prior to the break. At 3-1, the Pirates have a legitimate shot to steal the division title.
NL WEST
DODGERS 1-10
GIANTS 5-1
PADRES 50-1
DIAMONDBACKS 60-1
ROCKIES 300-1
Because I think the Giants' World Series odds offer value, you would think I like them to win the NL West, but not really. Their 5-1 odds don't seem high enough as the Dodgers will be tough to catch. Besides, they didn't panic last season when they didn't win the division and had to play in the wild-card game, so I don't think they'll feel the need to catch the Dodgers.
Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
LAS VEGAS -- If the first half of the season is any indication, we should be in for an exciting rest of the baseball season and playoffs.
Here at ESPN Insider, Joe Peta is doing individual midseason updates on all 30 teams and how to bet them in the second half, while yours truly will take a look at the bigger picture and search for value in the future-book odds.
The National League has pretty much held true to preseason expectations, as theWashington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers were sizable favorites to win their respective divisions, and all three are seemingly in control at the All-Star break. Even the current wild-card teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, and the teams chasing them -- the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets -- are pretty much in line with their preseason odds.
The American League is a vastly different story, as the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels were favored to win their divisions but only the Angels are in first place at the break (and they barely caught the Houston Astrosby making up five games in the AL West standings by going 7-3 in their last 10 while the Astros went 2-8). The Red Sox and Tigers are the two biggest underachievers this season, as the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royalslead the AL East and AL Central, respectively, and are odds-on favorites to win their divisions (Yankees at 10-11 and Royals at 1-7).
The two biggest overachievers so far in the AL are the Astros and Twins, who in the preseason were 60-1 and 100-1 World Series long shots at the Westgate, respectively, while also having among the lowest over/under win totals at 76 and 73.5, respectively. Yet they would be the AL's wild cards if the season were to end today.
As we come out of the All-Star break, the Royals are the 9-2 World Series favorite at the Westgate (and just got the added bonus of home-field advantage in the World Series with the AL's 6-3 win over the NL in the All-Star Game). The Cardinals, Dodgers and Nationals are next at 6-1, followed by the Pirates (8-1), Yankees (12-1), Angels (14-1), Cubs (16-1), Giants and Mets (both at 20-1) and Twins, Astros and Orioles (all at 25-1).
So where is the best betting value? Let's take a look at the odds and break down the best World Series and divisional bets.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=3]Betting World Series futures[/h]As a rule, futures aren't a good bet because the best teams have the lowest prices, and then books will shade each team's odds lower than their true odds. But if anyone out there grabbed the Twins at 20-1 to win the AL Central or 100-1 to win the World Series, or the Astros at 15-1 to win the AL West or 60-1 to win the World Series, kudos on finding some live long shots.
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| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 9-2 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6-1 |
| Washington Nationals | 6-1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 6-1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 8-1 |
| New York Yankees | 12-1 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 14-1 |
| Chicago Cubs | 16-1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 20-1 |
| New York Mets | 20-1 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 25-1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 25-1 |
| Houston Astros | 25-1 |
| Detroit Tigers | 30-1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 30-1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 30-1 |
| Cleveland Indians | 40-1 |
| Texas Rangers | 40-1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 50-1 |
| Seattle Mariners | 60-1 |
| San Diego Padres | 60-1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 80-1 |
| Oakland A's | 100-1 |
| Atlanta Braves | 100-1 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 100-1 |
| Miami Marlins | 200-1 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 300-1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 500-1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1000-1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 9999-1 |
| Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |
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[h=3]Betting divisional futures[/h]If you're not sure about backing a team to win the World Series, sometimes it makes more sense to just bet it to win its division or the league pennant. Let's look at a few potential divisional plays:
AL EAST
YANKEES 10-11
RAYS 11-2
ORIOLES 11-2
BLUE JAYS 4-1
RED SOX 10-1
This is the most wide-open division in baseball, with just 6.5 games separating first from last. If you really believe the Yankees are the class of the division, their 10-11 odds aren't prohibitive. If you believe the Red Sox will eventually jell and be the best team in the division like they were projected before the season, they're 10-1.
AL CENTRAL
ROYALS 1-7
TWINS 5-1
TIGERS 25-1
INDIANS 40-1
WHITE SOX 100-1
AL WEST
ANGELS 4-5
ASTROS 8-5
MARINERS 12-1
RANGERS 15-1
A'S 25-1
If you missed out on the Twins and Astros when they were flying under the radar, now isn't the time to bet them, as they're only 5-1 and 8-5 to win their respective divisions.
NL EAST
NATIONALS 1-10
METS 9-2
BRAVES 50-1
MARLINS 300-1
PHILLIES 5,000-1
The Nationals have the best overall team in the division, but the Mets trail by just two games, so their 9-2 odds look like an overlay.
NL CENTRAL
CARDINALS 1-4
PIRATES 3-1
CUBS 15-1
REDS 1,000-1
BREWERS 5,000-1
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</article>The Cardinals have been the best team in the majors all season; however, the Pirates are just 2.5 games out of the lead after winning three of four from the Cards prior to the break. At 3-1, the Pirates have a legitimate shot to steal the division title.
NL WEST
DODGERS 1-10
GIANTS 5-1
PADRES 50-1
DIAMONDBACKS 60-1
ROCKIES 300-1
Because I think the Giants' World Series odds offer value, you would think I like them to win the NL West, but not really. Their 5-1 odds don't seem high enough as the Dodgers will be tough to catch. Besides, they didn't panic last season when they didn't win the division and had to play in the wild-card game, so I don't think they'll feel the need to catch the Dodgers.
