[h=1]Five best CFB Games of the Year bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas has posted numbers on 166 games for the upcoming 2015-16 college football season. I realize many of you make trips to Las Vegas during the summer, so if you would like to get some early-season value, I have some plays for you to take advantage of before the numbers move. Most numbers I expect to be close to a touchdown difference (and some even more) by the time the game goes off.
Here are my top five early value plays from the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year:
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+8) over Baylor Bears | Saturday, Nov. 21
Oklahoma State would have been my No. 1 most improved team in the country if last season it hadn't earned a second chance at a punt return against Oklahoma and earned a punt-return touchdown in the final minute. The Cowboys would have finished 5-7 and been eligible for that list. The last time Baylor traveled to Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Bears were No. 3 in the country, unbeaten in 2013 and favored by eight, but OSU beat them 49-17. In the last two seasons, Baylor has outgained Big 12 foes at home by an average of 642-335 yards.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In their Big 12 road games against the seven other conference teams that have been to a bowl in that span, the Bears have actually been outgained. Baylor will have just faced Kansas State (Nov. 5) and Oklahoma (Nov. 14) and will have a huge game on Nov. 27 at TCU that could determine the Big 12 title. Get this game while the home underdog is actually getting more than a touchdown.
Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | Saturday, Nov. 21
Miami is my most improved team in the country this year. Last year my No. 1 most improved team was TCU and if you traveled to Vegas each week and just played TCU you would have gone 11-2 against the spread. This is Miami's final home game of the season and I think the Hurricanes could be the favorite by a field goal or more. While Miami has not had much success during the last six seasons -- averaging 5.3 losses per campaign -- the defense has played well against the option attack of Georgia Tech. Seven years ago, the Hurricanes were run over on a cold night in Atlanta, allowing 472 rushing yards and 8.4 yards per carry. In the six meetings since, the Canes have allowed just 339.8 total yards of offense to a Georgia Tech team that has averaged 447 yards per game during all of their other games in that span. The Yellow Jackets will be coming off a Thursday night showdown against Virginia Tech (Nov. 12) and will have rival Georgia on deck (Nov. 28). Georgia Tech has lost its last three trips to Miami by an average score of 34-18.
Miami is a home underdog getting more than a field goal; snap up the points while they are there.
Stanford Cardinal (EVEN) over Oregon Ducks | Saturday, Nov. 14
Coming into last season, it appeared that Stanford had the magic formula to beat Oregon, as the Cardinal's power run game and two tight end offense outgained Oregon for three straight years. Stanford's defense had held Oregon to just 368 yards per game -- almost 200 yards below the Ducks' season averages. Last year, Stanford had an inexperienced team, and, after winning 12, 11, 12 and 11 games the previous four years, dropped to 8-5. Oregon had Heisman-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota and made it to the national title game. This year, Stanford has more returning starters and a veteran quarterback in Kevin Hogan; Stanford is also fully recharged at tight end. I like the matchup, the home edge and the Cardinal may just be the better team -- yet the line is a pick-'em here in July.
Virginia Cavaliers (+9) over Boise State Broncos | Friday, Sept. 25
I have Boise picked to be the top non-Power 5 team for a second straight year and have Virginia picked for last place in its division in the ACC, but this game has value. Last year Virginia nearly made a bowl at 5-7, losing five games by eight points or fewer. The Cavaliers outgained UCLA, BYU, Duke and North Carolina, but lost all four games. At home, they outscored foes by an average of 31-19 and were plus-42 in yards per game. They beat three bowl teams at home -- Louisville, Pitt and Miami -- and if not for three defensive touchdowns allowed they would have knocked off No. 7 UCLA.
This is a Friday night game so the crowd will be pumped and Virginia will be coming off a game against William & Mary. The Cavaliers brought in a solid group of transfers to go with an excellent senior class and will be an underrated team this season. Boise is almost unbeatable on its blue turf and during the last three seasons at home were plus-169 in yards per game; on the road, however, the Broncos were just plus-12 in yards per game during that span. Last year, they only outgained a 2-10 Connecticut team 292-290 on the road. Take the home dog getting more than a touchdown.
USC Trojans (-7) over Arizona Wildcats | Saturday, Nov. 7
After selecting three underdogs and a pick-'em game, I thought I would finally take a favorite. Arizona is the defending Pac-12 South champ, but last year the Wildcats were 5-0, ranked No. 10 and actually a home dog when they played the unranked Trojans. They trailed that game 28-13 and ended up losing it by two.
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</article>Arizona will be on its third road game in four weeks and playing for a 10th straight week. Head coach Rich Rodriguez arrived in 2012 and in that span the Wildcats have lost nine road games -- and those nine losses have been by an average of 25.4 PPG. Last year, they outgained teams at home by 81 yards per game, but were minus-56 yards per game on the road. USC head coach Steve Sarkisian has been favored 18 times at home in the last four years and the Wildcats have gone 12-6 ATS.
Last year at home, the Trojans outscored foes by an average of 44-22 and were plus-173 yards per game, while on the road they were minus-56 YPG. The sanctions are gone, they are a deeper team and when the fourth quarter rolls around there will be no let up. Their depth-shy team blew two games in the final 10 seconds last year, including against Arizona State when the Sun Devils earned two late scores, winning on a Hail Mary.
I expect USC to make the playoff this year and Arizona -- with just 13 returning starters -- figures to take a step back. I fully expect that by the time this game rolls around, USC will likely be a two-touchdown favorite, and that gives us solid line value right now.
ESPN INSIDER
The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas has posted numbers on 166 games for the upcoming 2015-16 college football season. I realize many of you make trips to Las Vegas during the summer, so if you would like to get some early-season value, I have some plays for you to take advantage of before the numbers move. Most numbers I expect to be close to a touchdown difference (and some even more) by the time the game goes off.
Here are my top five early value plays from the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year:
Oklahoma State would have been my No. 1 most improved team in the country if last season it hadn't earned a second chance at a punt return against Oklahoma and earned a punt-return touchdown in the final minute. The Cowboys would have finished 5-7 and been eligible for that list. The last time Baylor traveled to Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Bears were No. 3 in the country, unbeaten in 2013 and favored by eight, but OSU beat them 49-17. In the last two seasons, Baylor has outgained Big 12 foes at home by an average of 642-335 yards.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In their Big 12 road games against the seven other conference teams that have been to a bowl in that span, the Bears have actually been outgained. Baylor will have just faced Kansas State (Nov. 5) and Oklahoma (Nov. 14) and will have a huge game on Nov. 27 at TCU that could determine the Big 12 title. Get this game while the home underdog is actually getting more than a touchdown.
Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | Saturday, Nov. 21
Miami is my most improved team in the country this year. Last year my No. 1 most improved team was TCU and if you traveled to Vegas each week and just played TCU you would have gone 11-2 against the spread. This is Miami's final home game of the season and I think the Hurricanes could be the favorite by a field goal or more. While Miami has not had much success during the last six seasons -- averaging 5.3 losses per campaign -- the defense has played well against the option attack of Georgia Tech. Seven years ago, the Hurricanes were run over on a cold night in Atlanta, allowing 472 rushing yards and 8.4 yards per carry. In the six meetings since, the Canes have allowed just 339.8 total yards of offense to a Georgia Tech team that has averaged 447 yards per game during all of their other games in that span. The Yellow Jackets will be coming off a Thursday night showdown against Virginia Tech (Nov. 12) and will have rival Georgia on deck (Nov. 28). Georgia Tech has lost its last three trips to Miami by an average score of 34-18.
Miami is a home underdog getting more than a field goal; snap up the points while they are there.
Stanford Cardinal (EVEN) over Oregon Ducks | Saturday, Nov. 14
Coming into last season, it appeared that Stanford had the magic formula to beat Oregon, as the Cardinal's power run game and two tight end offense outgained Oregon for three straight years. Stanford's defense had held Oregon to just 368 yards per game -- almost 200 yards below the Ducks' season averages. Last year, Stanford had an inexperienced team, and, after winning 12, 11, 12 and 11 games the previous four years, dropped to 8-5. Oregon had Heisman-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota and made it to the national title game. This year, Stanford has more returning starters and a veteran quarterback in Kevin Hogan; Stanford is also fully recharged at tight end. I like the matchup, the home edge and the Cardinal may just be the better team -- yet the line is a pick-'em here in July.
Virginia Cavaliers (+9) over Boise State Broncos | Friday, Sept. 25
I have Boise picked to be the top non-Power 5 team for a second straight year and have Virginia picked for last place in its division in the ACC, but this game has value. Last year Virginia nearly made a bowl at 5-7, losing five games by eight points or fewer. The Cavaliers outgained UCLA, BYU, Duke and North Carolina, but lost all four games. At home, they outscored foes by an average of 31-19 and were plus-42 in yards per game. They beat three bowl teams at home -- Louisville, Pitt and Miami -- and if not for three defensive touchdowns allowed they would have knocked off No. 7 UCLA.
This is a Friday night game so the crowd will be pumped and Virginia will be coming off a game against William & Mary. The Cavaliers brought in a solid group of transfers to go with an excellent senior class and will be an underrated team this season. Boise is almost unbeatable on its blue turf and during the last three seasons at home were plus-169 in yards per game; on the road, however, the Broncos were just plus-12 in yards per game during that span. Last year, they only outgained a 2-10 Connecticut team 292-290 on the road. Take the home dog getting more than a touchdown.
USC Trojans (-7) over Arizona Wildcats | Saturday, Nov. 7
After selecting three underdogs and a pick-'em game, I thought I would finally take a favorite. Arizona is the defending Pac-12 South champ, but last year the Wildcats were 5-0, ranked No. 10 and actually a home dog when they played the unranked Trojans. They trailed that game 28-13 and ended up losing it by two.
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</article>Arizona will be on its third road game in four weeks and playing for a 10th straight week. Head coach Rich Rodriguez arrived in 2012 and in that span the Wildcats have lost nine road games -- and those nine losses have been by an average of 25.4 PPG. Last year, they outgained teams at home by 81 yards per game, but were minus-56 yards per game on the road. USC head coach Steve Sarkisian has been favored 18 times at home in the last four years and the Wildcats have gone 12-6 ATS.
Last year at home, the Trojans outscored foes by an average of 44-22 and were plus-173 yards per game, while on the road they were minus-56 YPG. The sanctions are gone, they are a deeper team and when the fourth quarter rolls around there will be no let up. Their depth-shy team blew two games in the final 10 seconds last year, including against Arizona State when the Sun Devils earned two late scores, winning on a Hail Mary.
I expect USC to make the playoff this year and Arizona -- with just 13 returning starters -- figures to take a step back. I fully expect that by the time this game rolls around, USC will likely be a two-touchdown favorite, and that gives us solid line value right now.
