Service Plays Tuesday 7/28/15

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GL!

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | INDIANA at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Road underdogs (INDIANA) off a road loss, on Tuesday nights
106-57 since 1997. ( 65.0% | 43.3 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) poor defensive team (72-76 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after a close win by 3 points or less
36-14 since 1997. ( 72.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CONNECTICUT
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% after 15 or more games
62-28 since 1997. ( 68.9% | 31.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Orioles on Monday and likes the Orioles on Tuesday.

The deficit is 209 sirignanos.

Hondo

Hondo has a crew of two

Those high-flying Yankees took care of Hondo’s business Monday night at world famous Globe Life Park, rolling past the Rangers to lower the NRN (nasty red number) to 1,860 horners.

Tuesday night: If Obama and Kerry trust Teheran, that should be good enough for everybody — 10 units on the Braves. Also, Mr. Aitch expects Sonny to brighten his day — 10 units on the A’s.

EZWINNERS

3* (959) Brewers +$135

SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Europe » Champions League » CSKA Moscow (Rus) – Sparta Prague (Cze)

CSKA Moscow to win

Tuesday 100 Dime Plays Report.


Mets -145


Marlins -125


Rays +105


Under 8.5 Redsox


Astros -120


Phillies +120


Platinum Plays Win

SB Professor picks?

Frank Patron

10,000 Unit MLB Lock

SF Giants -150 over Milwaukee

Listed Pitchers

Simon – soccer

uefa – champions league ( under 2.5 -140) sparta prague @ cska moscow (1215pm)

uefa – champions league (fc midtjylland +100) apoel nicosia @ fc midtjylland (1pm)

uefa – champions league (over 2.5 +110) as monaco @ young boys bern (215pm)

uefa – champions league (over 2 -115) bate borisov @ videoton fc (230pm)

uefa – champions league (under 2.5 -130) molde fk @ nk dinamo zagreb (245pm)

Demolisher play today is on the Cleveland Indians

Goodfella 3* NL Game of the Week NY Mets

Joe Gavazzi

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT ALL SELECTIONS ARE INTENDED TO BE PLAYED BY PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL RISK. This means that you RISK the suggested percentage of bankroll on all selections. To further clarify, you RISK the suggested percentage of bankroll to win LESS on FAVORITE plays and RISK suggested percentage of bankroll play TO WIN MORE on UNDERDOG plays. In addition, all games come with listed pitchers, unless otherwise specified.

Throughout these analyses, I will refer to a series of shorthand abbreviations. In combination with the numbers that accompany them, they represent a more accurate reflection of a team or pitcher’s performance than a more traditional representation such as ERA. Below are some of those abbreviations and a brief description.

TRGS ... Team record game started (it is how we determine if we win or lose).
OPS ... A combination of on base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG), a best offensive indicator.
WHIP ... Walks plus hits per innings pitched (if opposing hitters aren’t on base, they cannot score).
K/BB ... Strike to walk ratio for a pitcher (a power index for a pitcher).
BAA ... Batting average against for a pitcher.
RISP … Runners in scoring position.


I hope this clarifies some of these terms for you and makes the reading of these analyses more understandable and enjoyable. Best of luck to us all this season!

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

MLB
5% KC Royals (+105)
4% San Fran Giants (-150)
4% Baltimore Orioles (-180)
3% Minnesota Twins (-105)
3% NY Mets (-140)
3% Miami Marlins (-110)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) at Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) (-105) 8:10 ET
The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Minnesota Twins for the first of an early week set at Target Field. The first pitch will be at 8:10 ET. This is a battle of 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] place teams, who as hunters, will play with great intensity. The Twins are in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] place in the AL Central, trailing KC by 8 games. But, they are one of only 5 teams in the American League who are above .500. As such, they hold down a current Wild Card spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates, at 57-41, are 6 ½ games behind St. Louis in the NL Central. But, the Pirates have the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best record in MLB at 57-41 and hold a 2 ½ game lead over San Fran for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Wild Card spot.

After closing the first half of the season with a trio of victories over St. Louis, the Pirates pulled to within 2 ½ games of the Cards. But a disastrous 6-game road trip to open the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half, in which they went 1-5, put them behind the 8 ball. A 3-1 home series against Washington improved the Pirates’ recent record to 39-19, best in MLB in that span. Of greatest concern is the road record which is 22-24. The performance on the road is most troubling for tonight’s starter, Morton, as well. Though he has pitched well at PNC Park, he has a 7.81 ERA on the road in 5 starts. Unfortunately, that coincides with his recent current form which, after a fast start, has seen Morton post a 7.76 ERA in his most recent 6 starts. With those kinds of numbers, it is tough to trust the Pirates and Morton as a road favorite.

Minnesota and Pelfrey present a totally dichotomous profile. After winning Friday night at home vs. NYY, the Twins had a lost weekend in dropping a pair to the Bronx Bombers. After their 26-12 surge through May, they have now regressed to 20-24 the last 2 months. But, their record at home at 32-18 is one of the best in MLB. Such is the same for tonight’s starter, Pelfrey, who has pitched by far his baseball from this mound. Minnesota has won 6 of 8 Pelfrey home starts, in which he has a 2.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

In a matchup of current Wild Card teams, we favor the huge home/road dichotomy presented by both the numbers for Minnesota and Pittsburgh, as well as Pelfrey and Morton.




KC Royals (Young) at Cleveland Indians (Bauer) (-115) 7:10 ET
Much like last night, a 9-4 KC victory, the linemaker has installed the wrong team as the favorite. Cleveland has lost 5 consecutive games, including 7 straight on this field, where they are 19-31 (the worst record in MLB). The Tribe has plated just 9 runs in their most recent 6 home games. There is little to recommend with tonight’s starter, Bauer, who in his last 4 home starts has a 9.15 ERA from this mound. That is all part of an 8-start streak, in which Bauer has a 6.40 ERA. In his most recent start, Bauer lasted 6 IP, allowing 6 runs including 3 HRs in an 8-1 loss to CWS. Far prefer the KC Royals as underdog, who (with the addition of Cueto), are now the favorite to win the World Series. They have recent marks of 15-5, including a 3-game winning streak. On the road, they are 26-20, a solid winning record. Most importantly is their performance when Young is starting on the road. KC is 5-1 in Young’s roadstarts, in which he has a 0.91 road WHIP. Like I said, “wrong team favored.” HUGE value again with the Royals tonight!


Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) at San Francisco Giants (Cain) (-150) 10:15 ET
Want no part of a fading Milwaukee team, who after going 24-15, is now 1-5 scoring just 2 runs in their last 3 games. Likewise, I have no interest in Peralta, who makes his first start since May 22[SUP]nd[/SUP]after a stretch on the DL with a strained left oblique. Giants are rolling now and fully motivated, trailing the Dodgers by just ½ game. San Fran has won 12 of 13, outscoring the opposition 80-36, while averaging 6.2 RPG with a .324 BA. With last night’s 4-2 victory, they have now won 7 straight vs. the Brewers. Cain is rounding into form nicely after his own stint on the DL. He comes off a 7-1 victory vs. San Diego in which he allowed just 1 run in 6 IP with 6 Ks. Pure momentum play on the Giants!


Atlanta Braves (Teheran) at Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez) (-180) 7:05 ET
Look for the 46-53 Braves to fade badly in the weeks ahead. They are bottom 7 in MLB in both pitching and batting OPS numbers. They have been horrible on the road this year, going 20-33, including recent slides of 4-14 and 1-8 in which they have a .178 BA on the road. After standing 35-35, they have gone 11-18. But, the headline story here is the home/road dichotomy of tonight’s starters. In 9 road starts, Teheran is 0-4 with a 7.61 ERA of late. His road WHIP is 1.78 (a clear play AGAINST number). Jimenez is just the opposite. Equally poor on the road, Baltimore has won 6 of 7 Jimenez home starts in which he has a 2.06 ERA and a 0.92 home whip. Baltimore, who recently went 5-15, has turned things around with 3 consecutive wins, including a WOW (walk off win) last night against the Braves on this field by a score of 2-1.


San Diego Padres (Shields) at NY Mets (Syndergaard) (-140) 7:10 ET
Don’t put too much weight into the Padres’ weekend sweep of Miami, a terrible road team. The Padres have still scored only 13 runs in their last 6 games. And, it figures to get little better against Syndergaard tonight. The Mets have won 5 of 6 Syndergaard home starts, in which he has a 1.74 ERA and a PLAY ON HOME WHIP of 0.87. The last 5 starts, Syndergaard has worked 34 IP with 34 Ks and a 1.59 ERA. Shields is on his way out of San Diego this week. But, he may have hurt his value. As in the most recent 9 games, he is 1-3, yielding 4.6 BB per 9 IP. Lay it with the Mets, who are 34-16 at home.

Washington Nationals (Zimmermann) at Miami Marlins (J. Fernandez) (-110) 7:10 ET
Marlins return from a lost weekend in San Diego to a home field where they are 24-23, winners of 6 of their 7 most recent home games. That is better than the 24-26 road record of Washington. That is reflected in their 4-4 record in 8 Zimmermann road starts in which he has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.49 road WHIP. Though Zimmermann has a solid history on this field, going 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 10 starts, that pales in comparison to the work done by Fernandez from this mound. In 3 starts against Washington, Fernandez has a 0.45 ERA. That is part of his LIFETIME record from this mound that has seen him go 14-0 with a 1.17 ERA.

Dominic Brando Sports (comp won last night with San Francisco)

@DominicBrando: MLB EXPLODES FOR 8-0-1 (+8.15 UNITS NET PROFIT) MONDAY AT @TimDonaghy2's @RefPicks.com and Rocky Atkinson's SportsWatchMonitor.com

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NY METS (SYNDERGAARD) -130 over SD Padres (7:10 ET)