Okay, who are your darkhorse favorites to get into the CFP?

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There's probably already been some kind of thread on this, but I'm too lazy to go look. My thinking about this season is kind of like a lot of you. I think this could be a crazy season for a lot of reasons. Mainly because i see more parity this year. And probably a lot of 2 loss teams in the Power 5 conferences. Here are a few of my darkhorses:


Cincinnati...With an NFL QB like Gunner Kiel and that offense, I think they'll simply be able to outscore all of their opponents. Their toughest road game will probably be at BYU. But other than that they play most of their tougher opponents at home, where they have been double tough. Cincy could very well go undefeated if there is any improvement at all from their defense. I just don't see any monsters on their schedule. And the two teams that were big threats last year UCF and memphis, lost a lot of starters off their teams. The only negative I have on this team is Tubberville. I've never really 100% trusted him as a HC. But that's mainly a lingering opinion from his Big 12 coaching days in which he couldn't deal with the Big 12 offenses and superior coaching. But the AAC is a different animal.


Boise State...Although I think this team is a little overrated, mainly because QB Grant Hnedrick is gone and Boise uses a system that is predicated on a developed QB, the schedule they play is just so easy that you have to put them in the playoff picture. If they can get through the month of September at BYU and at Virginia I think they're on their way. But something tells me they are going to stumble somewhere down the line for the reasons I stated.

LSU...Too talented of a team for people not to be talking about them. As always with LSU everything will be predicated on QB play. Miles needs to go back to being the riverboat gambler and turn these QB's loose. They were way too conservative last season. At any rate, I don't see them having two 8-5 seasons in a row. And by SEC standards their schedule is doable drawing Florida and SC from the East. The game that will tell us all we need to know about how the LSU season goes is their early home game with Auburn.

Notre Dame...It's hard to use ND and darkhorse in the same sentence since this is the most overbet and usually overrated team in the country almost every season. But being an Independent their name isn't brought up very often when it comes to making the CFP. They have a decent chance to get in if we can get one or two conferences with 2 loss champions. Which I think is highly possible this year. I think the key for Notre Dame is if they are going to lose a game, lose it early and then build up some momentum in the second half of the season to get themselves in the CFP conversation. As with most of the teams this year, it will all come down to QB play. The key for this team could be more about the chemistry of all of the assistant coaches they replaced than the QB issue. If everything comes together early they could be tough. The midseason game with USC will be a huge gauge for this team. Both are pretty strong teams that could end up meeting again in the playoffs if USC can make it out of their conference with 2 losses or less. But I don't really consider USC a darkhorse for the CFP.
 

Nirvana Shill
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I like LSU too GS....to many good players going thru that program ....might be under the radar too with recent disappointing seasons
 

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I do not think that Cincinnati gets there. Their defense needs to improve a lot. They also go to Memphis, BYU and Houston and host Miami Florida. One loss for any non-Power 5 Conference school eliminates them from consideration.

Notre Dame is a good choice. They should have a much better defense than last season, if they can avoid the injury bug. With Golson gone, it is up to Malik Zaire to lead the offense, which will run more, throw less, thanks to a very good offensive line. The schedule is doable, but filled with little tricks. After USC, the Irish play Temple, Pitt, Boston College and Stanford all on the road, with only a home game against Wake breaking that up. Brand name Texas, along with solid teams Ga. Tech and USC visit South Bend. The Irish go to Clemson. If the Irish can put together an 11-1 season, they have a real shot at a playoff spot. If it comes down to it, who will the committee pick? An 11-1 Notre Dame team or any 11-1 Big 12 team?
 

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I do not think that Cincinnati gets there. Their defense needs to improve a lot. They also go to Memphis, BYU and Houston and host Miami Florida. One loss for any non-Power 5 Conference school eliminates them from consideration.

Notre Dame is a good choice. They should have a much better defense than last season, if they can avoid the injury bug. With Golson gone, it is up to Malik Zaire to lead the offense, which will run more, throw less, thanks to a very good offensive line. The schedule is doable, but filled with little tricks. After USC, the Irish play Temple, Pitt, Boston College and Stanford all on the road, with only a home game against Wake breaking that up. Brand name Texas, along with solid teams Ga. Tech and USC visit South Bend. The Irish go to Clemson. If the Irish can put together an 11-1 season, they have a real shot at a playoff spot. If it comes down to it, who will the committee pick? An 11-1 Notre Dame team or any 11-1 Big 12 team?
Without a doubt they would pick ND over a Big 12 team with the same record. The only caveat to that would be a late season loss to Stanford which would probably drop them too far down in the polls. You've got to be able to build up a little momentum to get in there, unless EVERYBODY has two losses and they can just back in.
 

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If Cincinnati loses I think it's going to be on the road. Like I said their conference is weak, and probably down more this season than in previous seasons. The team I think they lose to is BYU. Literally everybody has BYU on the losing end of all of these big games with Nebraska, Boise St, UCLA, Michigan, Cincinnati & Mizzou. But we know they are going to upset one or two of these teams. They always do. I think they'll be pretty battle tested by the time Cincy comes visiting in October.
 

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I think Memphis beats Cincy in a shootout. IMHO that's a tougher game than BYU

CFP's aren't made for dark horses outside the power 5. it would take a minor miracle for one of them to slip in.

I can't consider LSU or ND a dark horse either as both have top 10 talent and are both inside the top 12 in vegas for winning the title. I guess we can revisit the thread after preseason rankings are up as I would consider anyone outside preseason top 10 to be a dark horse. If you want to just call it >50/1 as a dark horse here are the teams that don't meet that criteria:

Ohio State 4.500
Alabama 10.250
TCU 11.750
Auburn 16.000
USC 18.000
Florida State 19.000
Baylor 21.500
Oregon 26.500
LSU 27.000
Georgia 28.000
Michigan State 29.000
Notre Dame 33.000
Clemson 34.000
UCLA 34.000
Oklahoma 41.000
 

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I'm doing all of this on my iPhone so the analysis isn't real in depth.

Making the playoff and winning the playoff are two totally different hurdles. Getting there takes the right blend of talent and schedule but winning it by playing two elite teams in less than two weeks takes talent and depth. I could see a Cincy, Boise or even Baylor making it some day but could they beat Alabama then Ohio St? I highly doubt it. But this question was just about making it. My thoughts...

At one point late in the season last year Marshall was undefeated and ranked behind a two loss Boise State. That shows the committee's view on CUSA vs MWC. The gap is even bigger between MWC and P12/SEC/Big Ten. I feel safe in saying no group of 5 will make it. BYU has a difficult enough schedule to make it but no way do they beat Boise, UCLA, Neb, UCF, Mich, Cinci, Missouri.

ACC - Clemson only has two starters back on D I believe. FSU is the only team out of the ACC that has a realistic chance. GT was a nice story last year but will drop a few. I'll add ND in here since they are quasi-ACC. They return 20 starters but have a more difficult schedule then it appears. 2+ losses knocks ND out.

Big Ten - MSU getting Oregon could be a huge boost for their resume. Not sure if an 11-1 MSU who didn't win the conference and only lost to OSU, could get in.

Big XII - Baylor and TCU will be good but will no doubt drop a game or two at some point. People get enamored with the scoreboard and forget about these teams flaws. Baylor had more penalty yards than offensive yards (350+) against WVU and lost. TCU almost lost to a poor Kansas team. OKL and OSU will be decent and I'm sure everyone finishes with 2 losses.

SEC - The top teams all have massive turnover but are filling those new spots with 4/5 star guys. I'm sure the conference will cannabilize itself with 8-9 teams that will enter the top 25 at some point. I see the champ having 2 losses.

P12 - Oregon takes a big step back and USC/ASU/Stan take a step forward. Again a 2 loss champ is very likely.

If all these conference races unfold as I have mentioned then we probably get Ohio St, SEC and P12 champ and then a toss up between Mich St and Big XII.

Playoff contenders : Ohio St, Mich St, FSU, Bama, Aub, Ark, LSU, Baylor, TCU, Oregon, USC, Stanford.

I just can't see the four playoff teams coming from outside of this field of 12. Boring answer but those are my 2 cents.
 

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I think Memphis beats Cincy in a shootout. IMHO that's a tougher game than BYU

CFP's aren't made for dark horses outside the power 5. it would take a minor miracle for one of them to slip in.

I can't consider LSU or ND a dark horse either as both have top 10 talent and are both inside the top 12 in vegas for winning the title. I guess we can revisit the thread after preseason rankings are up as I would consider anyone outside preseason top 10 to be a dark horse. If you want to just call it >50/1 as a dark horse here are the teams that don't meet that criteria:

Ohio State 4.500
Alabama 10.250
TCU 11.750
Auburn 16.000
USC 18.000
Florida State 19.000
Baylor 21.500
Oregon 26.500
LSU 27.000
Georgia 28.000
Michigan State 29.000
Notre Dame 33.000
Clemson 34.000
UCLA 34.000
Oklahoma 41.000

RT, LSU season win total is 8 1/2...that makes them a darkhorse when they're supposed to lose 3 1/2 games imo
 

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Georgia..
 

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i think Michigan State and Clemson are two teams that can seriously end up there even though they are not dark horses.. MSU beats Oregon and OSU and they are there.. not sure of the Clemson schedule as i write this other then the regulars but SC and FSU could be their big two if they get the wins there they can do it imo .

a team not on the list tide posted i like is ole miss for a dark horse.. curious what you sec guys think about their chances
 

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i think Michigan State and Clemson are two teams that can seriously end up there even though they are not dark horses.. MSU beats Oregon and OSU and they are there..

Wow. So @ Michigan, @ Nebraska and Penn State are automatic W's.
 

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Wow. So @ Michigan, @ Nebraska and Penn State are automatic W's.

nothing ever easy or automatic.. i think @ Neb and penn st will be tuff games but they could/should get the W, dantonio may never lose to a michigan team again imo.. also assuming iowa is on their schedule and iowa will be improved this year as much as i dislike their coach.. week in and week out you have to show up and play, but if they take care of business and top osu and oregon, i cant see how they would not be there..
 

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Wow. So @ Michigan, @ Nebraska and Penn State are automatic W's.

will also add nothing is guaranteed for osu this year either, last year was the perfect storm with injury at QB almost working in their favor. if they dont show up they will lose to someone. I like this team but tbh with recruiting playing out as it is i think our future might be brighter then next year.. its much easier when no one expects u to win, not as easy when u r the hunted as we all know
 

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RT, LSU season win total is 8 1/2...that makes them a darkhorse when they're supposed to lose 3 1/2 games imo
yeah but they're 9th favorite in the country to win the title :) ... guess that's where the "o" in IMO comes in.
 

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hell, Oregon should be considered a dark horse instead of a favorite the way everyone says our run is over..
 

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hell, Oregon should be considered a dark horse instead of a favorite the way everyone says our run is over..
What is this "our run" bull s**t? Are you going to tell us that you graduated from Oregon now? If so, you should be flogged for wagering against them. If you did that and were a USC grad, your face would be rearranged, which is what you deserve. I know a lot of homers in here, but I do not know of any that would wager against their alma mater.

IF you did NOT graduate from Oregon (which is probably the case because you are too stupid to have graduated from ANY college), I do not want to hear any more of this "Our" caca out of you again. Either way you are a major loser. You are like a stray cat looking for a home. The truth of the matter is that you will never get out of the alleys and gutters.
 

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What is this "our run" bull s**t? Are you going to tell us that you graduated from Oregon now? If so, you should be flogged for wagering against them. If you did that and were a USC grad, your face would be rearranged, which is what you deserve. I know a lot of homers in here, but I do not know of any that would wager against their alma mater.

IF you did NOT graduate from Oregon (which is probably the case because you are too stupid to have graduated from ANY college), I do not want to hear any more of this "Our" caca out of you again. Either way you are a major loser. You are like a stray cat looking for a home. The truth of the matter is that you will never get out of the alleys and gutters.

how many times have I invited you to say this to my face Junk ? you have bitched out everytime ! I live in Oregon you pos
 

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CFP's aren't made for dark horses outside the power 5. it would take a minor miracle for one of them to slip in.

Agree with RT.....frecken miracle.



Ohio State 4.500
Alabama 10.250
TCU 11.750
Auburn 16.000
USC 18.000
Florida State 19.000
Baylor 21.500
Oregon 26.500
LSU 27.000
Georgia 28.000
Michigan State 29.000
Notre Dame 33.000
Clemson 34.000
UCLA 34.000
Oklahoma 41.000
[/QUOTE]
 

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i think Michigan State and Clemson are two teams that can seriously end up there even though they are not dark horses.. MSU beats Oregon and OSU and they are there.. not sure of the Clemson schedule as i write this other then the regulars but SC and FSU could be their big two if they get the wins there they can do it imo .

a team not on the list tide posted i like is ole miss for a dark horse.. curious what you sec guys think about their chances

Clemson will beat FSU by double digits. There toughest games are GT (always close even if one sucks, but 2 best QBs in the country this year), ND, and at NC St. (Laugh now).
 

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