Adrian Peterson, Vikings among Super Bowl sleepers
KC Joyner, NFL Insider
Everyone remembers the powerhouse Super Bowl champions -- the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1980s San Francisco 49ers, the 1990s Dallas Cowboys. As fun as those team were to watch, it's worth remembering the NFL has had its fair share of surprise champions over the years: the 1980 Oakland Raiders, 1981 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams and 2001 New England Patriots.
The NFL does not appear to be in the midst of a true dynasty -- sorry, Seahawks fans -- so who could come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl? Three teams fit the bill.
(Note: The passing game metrics listed below include yards gained on penalties such as defensive pass interference and illegal contact.)
Minnesota Vikings
The last five years have possibly been the nadir of the Vikings franchise, as they've finished under .500 four times, which had never happened in any other such span in team history.
This all looks poised to change, as multiple signs point toward the Vikings becoming one of the NFL's up-and-coming teams.
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Teddy Bridgewater's development: Bridgewater had the type of rookie campaign that, in previous years, would have led to an offensive rookie of the year award. From Weeks 13-17, Bridgewater was tied for the league lead in completion percentage (72.1 percent) and his 16.5 vertical yards per attempt (11 yards or more) ranked first overall. He also ranked 11th in Total QBR and set a record for the highest completion percentage by a rookie attempting 40 or more passes in a single game. Throw in his 0.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR, which measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team), tied for third-lowest, and it means Bridgewater could be on his way to competing with the top young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Return of Adrian Peterson: Minnesota would have the makings of a powerful rushing attack even without Peterson. The Vikings finished tied for eighth in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric, and Jerick McKinnonranked fifth in good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), which measures a ball carrier's productivity when the defense isn't able to disrupt a rushing attempt. The potential benefit of this for Peterson is that the Vikings don't need him to rack up 2,500 rushing yards on his own; they just need him to move an already-strong ground game into elite status.
Mike Wallace upgrades the passing game: Wallace didn't impact Miami's vertical passing game as much as expected, but one thing he did do well was score touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, only 10 wide receivers tallied more receiving scores than Wallace's 15. Last year, the Vikings ranked tied for 19th in passing touchdowns to wide receivers (13). Wallace's arrival makes a top-10 finish in that category a legitimate possibility, especially if he's able to again become a difference-maker deep.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins haven't made the playoffs since the 2008 season and have not won a playoff contest since the 2000 campaign.
This might be about to change. A recent study by a Harvard student listed Miami as the favorite to win the AFC East. But they have the goods to aim ever higher than that.
Ryan Tannehill's improved decision-making: Tannehill has come a long way in three pro seasons. As a rookie, he ranked tied for 16th in the NFL with a 2.1 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which was identical to his BDR in his last year at Texas A&M. But he seems to have corrected these issues. In each of his past two seasons, he's posted a BDR in the top 10, which is a promising sign that Tannehill is growing into his role as a franchise quarterback.
A bolstered vertical passing game: Tannehill's biggest weakness has been his inability to consistently complete long passes. That could change with the additions of Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker. Last season, Stills ranked second among qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt and tied for fourth on stretch vertical ypa (throws of 20 yards or more). Parker's 19.9 yards-per-catch average ranked 10th in the FBS last season. This combination could dramatically improve Tannehill's subpar 2014 numbers on vertical and stretch-vertical passes -- 29th and 34th overall, respectively.
An underrated running game: Miami finished first in the league last year in GBP, which gauges overall rushing game production. Even if the Dolphins decline a bit in this category, they still will have an upper-tier ground game, especially if rookie Jay Ajayi can live up to his lofty potential.
Add these elements to a highly favorable pass defense schedule (ninth-easiest in the league according to my analysis), and Miami should be able to make some noise in the NFL postseason.
New York Giants
Coming back from a deficit is nothing new for Tom Coughlin's Giants teams. Both of his Super Bowl champions were not expected to win a title. This year's team is in the same boat: Big Blue is coming off its second straight losing season, which hadn't happened since the 2003 and 2004 seasons, the latter being Coughlin's first with the Giants.
Here's how they can turn it around:
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</article>Eli Manning's potential to be a top-tier passer: From Weeks 9-17 last season, Manning led the league in attempts per game (41.8) and ranked third in stretch-vertical passing yards (571). Unsurprisingly, those numbers coincided with Odell Beckham Jr. hitting his stride. If Beckham can come anywhere close to stretching his second-half numbers (73 catches, 1,073 yards and 9 TDs) over a full season, Manning has the potential to be one of the best downfield quarterbacks.
Impact defense: The Giants' defense was average or below average in just about every area last season expect for their ability to pressure the quarterback. They ranked fourth overall in disrupted dropback percentage, which measures the number of plays that end in a sack, pass defensed, interception or batted ball. Even with Jason Pierre-Paul's production level in question due to his fireworks accident, this defense has more than enough talent to post another top-10 season in this area.
Correcting coverage errors: The Giants allowed 12 touchdowns last season due to some form of coverage error, the most of any team in the NFL. These mistakes are often the easiest to correct, so a big reduction here is very likely. Helping the cause will be second-round draft pick Landon Collins, a safety who Scouts, Inc. said has "good overall eye discipline in coverage."
KC Joyner, NFL Insider
Everyone remembers the powerhouse Super Bowl champions -- the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1980s San Francisco 49ers, the 1990s Dallas Cowboys. As fun as those team were to watch, it's worth remembering the NFL has had its fair share of surprise champions over the years: the 1980 Oakland Raiders, 1981 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams and 2001 New England Patriots.
The NFL does not appear to be in the midst of a true dynasty -- sorry, Seahawks fans -- so who could come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl? Three teams fit the bill.
(Note: The passing game metrics listed below include yards gained on penalties such as defensive pass interference and illegal contact.)
Minnesota Vikings
The last five years have possibly been the nadir of the Vikings franchise, as they've finished under .500 four times, which had never happened in any other such span in team history.
This all looks poised to change, as multiple signs point toward the Vikings becoming one of the NFL's up-and-coming teams.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Teddy Bridgewater's development: Bridgewater had the type of rookie campaign that, in previous years, would have led to an offensive rookie of the year award. From Weeks 13-17, Bridgewater was tied for the league lead in completion percentage (72.1 percent) and his 16.5 vertical yards per attempt (11 yards or more) ranked first overall. He also ranked 11th in Total QBR and set a record for the highest completion percentage by a rookie attempting 40 or more passes in a single game. Throw in his 0.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR, which measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team), tied for third-lowest, and it means Bridgewater could be on his way to competing with the top young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Return of Adrian Peterson: Minnesota would have the makings of a powerful rushing attack even without Peterson. The Vikings finished tied for eighth in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric, and Jerick McKinnonranked fifth in good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), which measures a ball carrier's productivity when the defense isn't able to disrupt a rushing attempt. The potential benefit of this for Peterson is that the Vikings don't need him to rack up 2,500 rushing yards on his own; they just need him to move an already-strong ground game into elite status.
Mike Wallace upgrades the passing game: Wallace didn't impact Miami's vertical passing game as much as expected, but one thing he did do well was score touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, only 10 wide receivers tallied more receiving scores than Wallace's 15. Last year, the Vikings ranked tied for 19th in passing touchdowns to wide receivers (13). Wallace's arrival makes a top-10 finish in that category a legitimate possibility, especially if he's able to again become a difference-maker deep.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins haven't made the playoffs since the 2008 season and have not won a playoff contest since the 2000 campaign.
This might be about to change. A recent study by a Harvard student listed Miami as the favorite to win the AFC East. But they have the goods to aim ever higher than that.
Ryan Tannehill's improved decision-making: Tannehill has come a long way in three pro seasons. As a rookie, he ranked tied for 16th in the NFL with a 2.1 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which was identical to his BDR in his last year at Texas A&M. But he seems to have corrected these issues. In each of his past two seasons, he's posted a BDR in the top 10, which is a promising sign that Tannehill is growing into his role as a franchise quarterback.
A bolstered vertical passing game: Tannehill's biggest weakness has been his inability to consistently complete long passes. That could change with the additions of Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker. Last season, Stills ranked second among qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt and tied for fourth on stretch vertical ypa (throws of 20 yards or more). Parker's 19.9 yards-per-catch average ranked 10th in the FBS last season. This combination could dramatically improve Tannehill's subpar 2014 numbers on vertical and stretch-vertical passes -- 29th and 34th overall, respectively.
An underrated running game: Miami finished first in the league last year in GBP, which gauges overall rushing game production. Even if the Dolphins decline a bit in this category, they still will have an upper-tier ground game, especially if rookie Jay Ajayi can live up to his lofty potential.
Add these elements to a highly favorable pass defense schedule (ninth-easiest in the league according to my analysis), and Miami should be able to make some noise in the NFL postseason.
New York Giants
Coming back from a deficit is nothing new for Tom Coughlin's Giants teams. Both of his Super Bowl champions were not expected to win a title. This year's team is in the same boat: Big Blue is coming off its second straight losing season, which hadn't happened since the 2003 and 2004 seasons, the latter being Coughlin's first with the Giants.
Here's how they can turn it around:
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Eli Manning's potential to be a top-tier passer: From Weeks 9-17 last season, Manning led the league in attempts per game (41.8) and ranked third in stretch-vertical passing yards (571). Unsurprisingly, those numbers coincided with Odell Beckham Jr. hitting his stride. If Beckham can come anywhere close to stretching his second-half numbers (73 catches, 1,073 yards and 9 TDs) over a full season, Manning has the potential to be one of the best downfield quarterbacks.
Impact defense: The Giants' defense was average or below average in just about every area last season expect for their ability to pressure the quarterback. They ranked fourth overall in disrupted dropback percentage, which measures the number of plays that end in a sack, pass defensed, interception or batted ball. Even with Jason Pierre-Paul's production level in question due to his fireworks accident, this defense has more than enough talent to post another top-10 season in this area.
Correcting coverage errors: The Giants allowed 12 touchdowns last season due to some form of coverage error, the most of any team in the NFL. These mistakes are often the easiest to correct, so a big reduction here is very likely. Helping the cause will be second-round draft pick Landon Collins, a safety who Scouts, Inc. said has "good overall eye discipline in coverage."
