XSPower 2015 NCAA College Football Power Sides & Total Winners

XSPower · Aug 17, 2015

I have been a member here for now 6 years now (posting member) and have been around since the early 2000's (non posting viewer)..... I have seen many great capers come and go and I even remember the The General (Moderator) & TheShirk (Past owner of the RX I think) as well......

I will have one football trend once again this year for all my NCAA College Football Sides and Totals Selections!!!!

If you new to the RX welcome my new friend, hang around and let us here from you!!!

Many of you know my style and my good and bad sports, so there is no need to bring up any negativity in my trends!!!! I win and lose just like anyone else and I promise you that I will have bad week this season and very nice winning runs as well!!!!

Not quite sure how I will be rating my plays or if I'll be around ALL season, but for the NCAA College Football Sides & Totals there will be no dollar amounts included!!!! I will keep a separate sides and totals record for those that like to follow along!!!!

I'm setting my goal at 56% or better this year in the NCAA College Football. I have been known to exceed goals and that just means that I will have to raise my standards.

Like everyone one else here, I'm hoping for a great season and looking forward in doing so!!!!

If you like to purchase plays from caper's you are crazy!!!!! There are many great football capers here @ the rx and you will all see that your just wasting your time buy plays from want-to-be-pros!!!!

If I change the way or things I do in my trend it is because I choose to do so..... I plan on posting my plays the first four week of the season and after that I really don't know. Enjoy the blowout winners and I'll see you in a few weeks my friends!!!!

Later,

XS :modemman:

XSPower · Aug 17, 2015

College football Betting 101: Importance of capping QB changes by Jason Logan

College football season is creeping closer and closer, and with that NCAAF bettors are beginning to rev their handicapping engines in preparation for Week 1 and beyond.

Part I on this Betting 101 series focuses on handicapping teams with new starting quarterbacks – the most important position on the field when it comes to covering the spread and deciding the Over/Under.

Capping College QBs

Swapping out quarterbacks can be the beginning of a long, long season for some teams. Or it can signal the start of something big, like with Florida State and then-freshman Jameis Winston in 2013.

No one expected the Seminoles’ new QB, taking over for long-time passer and first-round NFL draft pick E.J. Manuel, to lead FSU to the national title as well as become just the second freshman to win the Heisman Trophy. But, the newest NFL No. 1 overall pick did just that.

Much like starting pitchers in baseball, no player in football can make or break your bets like the quarterback, which is why many sharps start their college football prep with those teams undergoing a changing of the guard under center.

There are a few different situations teams can find themselves in when ushering in a fresh-faced No. 1: Standout freshman, promoted backup, transfers, and a bare cupboard.

“Like the NFL, a QB change from one season to the next can be a significant one,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports. “Is it a freshman taking control of the team for the first time, or is it a transfer?

“However, unlike the NFL, a lot of the time a college team won't see a big dropoff in production due to the overall ‘system’. My advice is to look at each quarterback change on its own, and not generalize.”

Here’s an example of some teams going through these new QB situations and how bettors should treat them during the early schedule:

Standout Freshmen

Top-tier programs recruit the biggest and best from the high school ranks, and following in the footsteps of Winston at FSU and Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M – two freshman Heisman winners – is Florida Gators redshirt freshman Will Grier.

Reports out of Gainesville say Grier is pushing for the starting job, going head-to-head with Treon Harris, who has had trouble with his accuracy. New head coach Jim McElwain is running a pro-style offense and Grier could have the inside track thanks to his size, passing and pedigree, being a highly-touted recruit and Parade Magazine National Player of the Year.

Florida is a +2,800 long shot to win the SEC, which would pretty much be an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff. It’s unlikely Grier can carry the Gators that far, should he win the starting job, but he is one freshman passer to keep an eye on as the season kicks off.

Promoted Backups

Staying in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers bid farewell to quarterback Nick Marshall this off season, with the departed senior signing on with the New Orleans Saints. That opens the door for junior Jeremy Johnson, who worked behind Marshall the past two season.

Johnson has just two starts and 78 throws to his name with the Tigers but the buzz is building in Auburn. He’s 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, cut from a similar mold of Heisman winners Cam Newton and Jameis Winston, and has a rocket for an arm. Those attributes have NFL scouts already drooling over Johnson, who is listed at +1,500 to win the Heisman - tied with three others as the seventh biggest favorite.

The Tigers can never be counted out in the SEC and enter 2015 at +280 to win the SEC, second only to Alabama.

Transfers

The big transfer news this offseason was Notre Dame QB Everett Golson making the move from South Bend to Tallahassee, looking to pick up what Winston left off. However, despite what he did for the Irish, Golson isn’t guaranteed the top job for the Seminoles.

Another notable transfer that could make waves is former Florida QB Jeff Driskel joining Louisiana Tech. He hasn’t come close to his 2011 achievements the past two seasons, having his career sidetracked by a fibula injury in 2013. He’s a graduate transfer, so he didn’t have to sit a season, and isn’t going through the grinder of SEC defenses every week.

Louisiana Tech was one of the best bets in college football last season, going 11-3 ATS.

Bare Cupboards

Sometimes a star quarterback’s departure leaves a massive crater in the depth chart that can’t be filled overnight. This happens more often to smaller schools than power-conference members due to recruiting prowess.

Often times, the team’s offense and entire identity are built around those arms, who usually stay for three, four and five years at these outlining schools. Once they go, programs are forced to start from scratch or rebuild their entire playbook. And if there is no proven QB to take over the No. 1 spot, this transition can be devastating.

Colorado State is undergoing this change – among others – in 2015. Not only is the program under new head coach Mike Bobo, after McElwain left for the Florida job, but the Rams are also reeling after losing star QB Garrett Grayson to the pros.

That leaves CSU with some untested arms under center. Nick Stevens is the front runner but attempted just 25 passes as a redshirt freshman in 2014. He’s being challenged by redshirt freshman Coleman Key, who has the potential to be a standout once he gets his feet wet. And then there’s true freshman J.C. Robles.

Books have Colorado State priced at +1,200 to win the Mountain West Conference, with the Rams win total at 7.5. That may seem like a lofty number with this team taking a major step down at quarterback.

XSPower · Aug 17, 2015

Big Ten conference college football betting preview: Plenty of talent returns to Ohio State by Will Rodgers

Ohio State Buckeyes (2014: 14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: -260
Season win total: 11

Why to bet the Buckeyes: No team enjoys as much quarterback depth as the Buckeyes, who boast three signal callers that are all considered legitimate Heisman hopefuls. They return plenty of talent from last year's championship squad, including star running back Ezekiel Elliot, who ran for 1402 yards and a dozen TDs last season. This year's schedule presents very little problems, with their toughest game looking like a home game against Michigan State.

Why not to bet the Buckeyes: The only thing not to like about this team is that expectations are sky high. OSU is going to be a heavy favorite week in and week out, and it's not going to be easy to live up to all the hype. There's also a potential for a quarterback controversy that could prove to be a distraction to the team.

Season win total pick: Over 11

Michigan State Spartans (2014: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 9.5

Why to bet the Spartans: Conner Cook returns at quarterback for the Spartans after throwing for 3214 yards and 24 TDs with just eight INTs last season. Senior All-American Jack Allen is the rock in what is projected to be one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Why not to bet the Spartans: With the loss of Big10 Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and 1500 yard rusher Jeremy Langford leaves the Spartans with unproven players at key positions on offense. The schedule isn't going to be easy either, hosting Oregon in Week 2, and playing on the road in Columbus in November. When it's all said and done, it's hard to see the Spartans knocking off the defending champs.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

Wisconsin Badgers (2014: 11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1200
Season win total: 10

Why to bet the Badgers: Last year Wisconsin ranked 4th in the nation in total defense, and 17th in scoring defense. This season's squad will boast a ton of talent with the likes of junior outside linebacker Vince Biegel who led the team with 16.5 tackles for a loss, and senior outside linebacker Joe Schobert, who recorded 13.5 tackles for a loss in 2014. They will have plenty of experience in the secondary with both starting corners returning along with senior safety Michael Caputo.

Why not to bet the Badgers: The quarterback position was a glaring weakness for Wisconsin in 2014, and they bring back five year senior Joel Stave for another year. He threw more picks (10) than he did TDs (9) last season, completing just 53 percent of his passes. The Badgers have high hopes for junior running back Corey Clement, but he's got big shoes to fill replacing Melvin Gordon.

Season win total pick: Under 10

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1700
Season win total: 8

Why to bet on the Cornhuskers: First year head coach Mike Riley brings a more relaxed approach to Nebraska, which is in stark contrast to his predecessor Bo Pelini, who has a reputation for being a bit of a hot head. While he will make the transition to more of a pro-style offense, the transition will be made easier with Tommy Armstrong Jr. returning at quarterback after throwing for 2695 yards and 22 TDs last season.

Why not to bet on the Cornhuskers: They will need to replace All-American running back Ameer Abdullah, who ran for 1583 yards and 18 TDs in 2014. Nebraska will not have much time to settle in under a new coach and a new system, as they are thrown right into the fire with tough non-conference games against BYU and Miami in the first three weeks.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Michigan Wolverines (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet on the Wolverines: Michigan's defense was one of the more underrated units in the country last year, and they finished 2014 ranked 7th in the country in total defense. They bring back 24 of the 29 players that appeared on the final depth chart last year, and they bring talented freshman Jabrill Peppers into the mix.

Why not to bet on the Wolverines: Last season under Brady Hoke the Wolverines ranked 107th nationally in passing, and it's likely going to take a while before we see vast improvements. There is still a ton of uncertainty at the quarterback position, and a lack of offense could put too much pressure on the defense.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Penn State Nittany Lions (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Nittany Lions: Last year quarterback Christian Hackenberg was sacked 44 times (the most in the Big10). Inexperience on the offensive line was their biggest weakness in 2014, and that's something that has been addressed. They return six starters from last year's O-line, and we should see Hackenberg improve on a miserable 2014 season.

Why not to bet the Nittany Lions: Hackenberg regressed in 2014, throwing more picks (15) than TDs (12). While you can certainly blame a lot of that on an inexperienced offensive line, we could see some of the same problems carry over into the 2015 season.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 5.5

Why to bet the Golden Gophers: The Gophers bring back seven starters on defense, and they are in good hands with last year's Big10 Coach of the Year Jerry Kill. “We’ve got a chance to be a really, really good football team,” Kill says. “We’re very athletic on both sides of the ball.”

Why not to bet the Golden Gophers: They return only four starters on offense and junior quarterback Mitch Leidner completed 51 percent of his passes throwing for 11 TDs and eight INTs. They ranked 119th in the nation in passing in 2014, and it's more than likely that a struggling offense will put a ton of pressure on their defense.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Iowa Hawkeyes (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +4500
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Hawkeyes: The departure of quarterback Jake Ruddock is likely to be a positive thing for the Hawkeyes, who hope that junior C.J. Beathard will be more of a playmaker. Ruddock was often criticized for being too conservative, while Beathard wasn't afraid to air it out, showing off his powerful arm.

Why not to bet the Hawkeyes: If Iowa's loss to Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl is any indication of what to expect from this year's defense, the Hawkeyes will be in big trouble. The Vols ran for 283 yards in that game, winning by a score of 45-28.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Northwestern Wildcats (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +8000
Season win total: 6.5

Why to bet the Wildcats: With 15 starters returning from last season's depth chart, the Wildcats should have a chance to improve on a 5-7 record in 2014. They bring back talented running back Justin Jackson who ranked 4th among Power 5 freshman in all purpose yards (98.9 per game). They also have Christian Jones coming back at WR, and he led the team in receiving the last two years.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: There are still plenty of question marks at the quarterback position, and whoever wins the job will be thrown into the fire in a Week 1 game against Stanford. Playing at Duke two weeks later might not be a cakewalk either.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5

Maryland Terrapins (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +12000
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Terrapins: Senior Caleb Rowe steps in at quarterback after throwing for 489 yards, five TDs and four INTs in four appearances last year. They should have more size on an improved offensive line, and they return proven playmakers at receiver and last year's top two running backs Brandon Ross and Wes Brown.

Why not to bet on the Terrapins: The conference schedule looks brutal with road games at East Lansing and Columbus, and home games against Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin. The bad news for Maryland is that they will face much stiffer competition in the Big10 this year.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5

Indiana Hoosiers (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +14000
Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Hoosiers: Nate Sudfeld is back at quarterback for the Hoosiers after missing the second half of last season with a shoulder injury. Head coach Kevin Wilson was able to fill a few holes with players coming over from UAB, after the school discontinued it's football program.

Why to not to bet the Hoosiers: It's not going to be easy to replace Tevin Coleman who ran for 2036 yards and 15 TDs in 2014, and was the best running back in school history. The defense has a long way to go after allowing 32.8 points per game, ranking 102nd nationally.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Illinois Fighting Illini (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +20000
Season win total: 3.5

Why to bet the Illini: Wes Lunt returns at quarterback after throwing for 1729 yards, 14 TDs and just three INTs in 2014. Those are pretty impressive numbers when you consider that he missed five games and battled injuries throughout the season.

Why not to bet the Illini: Leading receiver Mike Dudek tore his ACL back in April, and he'll miss at least the first half of the season. They have a tough conference schedule with home games against Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State, and road games at Penn State and Iowa.

Season win total pick: Over 3.5

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Scarlet Knights: Kyle Flood's offense appears to be in good shape, despite having to replace quarterback Gary Nova. They boast a talented backfield with the likes of Paul James, Justin Goodwin, Josh Hicks, Robert Martin and Desmon Peoples. Leonte Caroo had 55 catches for 1086 yards and 10 TDs last season, and he chose to forgo the NFL draft and will return for his senior season.

Why not to bet the Scarlet Knights: They ranked dead last in the conference in almost every defensive category a year ago, and they lost to Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State by a combined score of 180–44.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Purdue Boilermakers (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Boilermakers: Purdue will return six players on the offensive line that saw time as starters in 2014, and quarterback Austin Appleby will be back at quarterback. Appleby threw for 202 yards and a TD on 15-of-20 passing in a win over Illinois in his first start.

Why not to bet on the Boilermakers: After the win over Illinois, Purdue lost it's final six games of the season. Appleby threw for just eight TDs and 10 INTs in those six losses. There doesn't appear to be enough talent available to compete with the big boys of the Big10.

Season win total pick: Under 4

XSPower · Aug 17, 2015

Pac-12 college football betting preview: Mariota gone, but plenty of talent left in Oregon by AAA Sport

Oregon Ducks (2014: 13-2 SU, 10-5ATS)

Odds to win conference: 9-4
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Ducks: Oregon might be a bit underrated after losing Marcus Mariota to the pros, but bettors are advised that there are plenty of returning players at skilled positions to help transfer QB Vernon Adams keep the offense humming. Be ready to jump on any tight lines.

Why not to bet the Ducks: It might take a while early on for the Ducks to get it going, especially if they are still hung over from playing for the national title last season. Week 2 (at Michigan State) will provide a good early test, but other than that there are no tough games until the end of October, so they’ll have to cover some big numbers.

Season win total pick: Over 9

USC Trojans (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 11-4
Season win total: 8

Why to bet the Trojans: Expectations are high this season after they went 9-4 a year ago. Top-flight QB Cody Kessler (maybe the best in the conference) returns, and he’s joined by a solid offensive line and several playmakers. In all, 14 starters are back.

Why not to bet the Trojans: This group at USC hasn’t shown that it can win tight games. There’s a feeling that the Trojans left a few wins (losses to Utah, Arizona State, Boston College) on the table last season. Another mid-level bowl appearance would be a downer.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Stanford Cardinal (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Cardinal: The Cardinal were a few field goals away from another double-digit win season in 2014, and they have a veteran team returning – led by third-year QB starter Kevin Hogan. The D was solid last season, and should be just as good this time around.

Why not to bet the Cardinal: They could challenge for the Pac 12 title, but things have to go right. Like USC, they couldn’t make plays in the fourth quarter last season and wound up taking three tough losses. The ground game doesn’t look a lot better than it did last season.

Season win total pick: PUSH

UCLA Bruins (2014: 10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Bruins: Any team that has 17 starters back from a club that won 10 games has to feel good about itself, and hopes are high at UCLA. Lots of eyes will be on RB Paul Perkins, who led the Pac 12 in rushing last season.

Why not to bet the Bruins: Do you think a freshman recruit at QB (Josh Rosen) can get your team a league title and trip to the Final Four? Probably not, and that’s the rub. The defense looks good, but coaches need to do some patch work in the secondary.

Season win total pick: Over 9

Arizona State Sun Devils (2014: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 6-1
Season win total: 8

Why to bet the Sun Devils: Winning is in the water (what there is of it in the desert, anyway), and the Sun Devils are now in the habit of cranking out 10-win seasons. There’s lots of talent returning, which should ease the burden on new QB Mike Bercovici.

Why not to bet the Sun Devils: The early schedule is nasty. They open at Texas A&M, then after a couple of cupcakes the pre-November docket has nothing but tough games. If they survive until the arrival of cooler weather, they should be OK.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Arizona Wildcats (2014: 10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 7-1
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Wildcats: Things didn’t work out at Michigan for Rich Rodriguez, but he’s been aces at Arizona, where the Cats won 10 times for the first time in 16 years and advanced to the Pac 12 title game. Everything is pointed up.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: Arizona might have a low O/U number because the Pac 12 South will be so good this season. Depth could be a problem, too, especially for a team that does not have a bye week.

Season win total pick: PUSH

Utah Utes (2014: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 10-1
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Utes: Quite frankly, Utah does not have the treasure trove of talent that other teams in the conference have, but the Utes compete every time out. They have a good one in RB Devontae Booker, who plays his best (130 yards per game) against conference opponents.

Why not to bet the Utes: Have they peaked? Utah won several close games last season, and the Utes don’t figure to score a ton of points this time around. If those one-possession games go against them, it could be a tough year.

Season win total pick: Under 7

California Golden Bears (2014: 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 18-1
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Golden Bears: Cal likes its offense. The QB is good – Jared Goff has tossed for 53 touchdowns in his career and should add at least another 20 running the frenetic no-huddle offense. They’ll score . . .

Why not to bet the Golden Bears: . . . and they’ll also give up a ton – but hopefully not as many as last season, when opposing QBs burned Cal for 42 passing touchdowns. The way the Bears run their offense, the defense is on the field a lot.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Washington Huskies (2014: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 30-1
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Huskies: Chris Peterson is in Year Two of the program’s rebuild, and while there are myriad problems, the Huskies feel they can control the clock behind aptly-named RB Dwayne Washington, a bruiser who could be among the best in the country.

Why not to bet the Huskies: Only 9 starters return from an OK team last year, and while the secondary looks OK, opponents figure to pound away at Washington’s porous D-line. Could be a tough year in Seattle.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Washington State Cougars (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 40-1
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Cougars: Expectations were lowered after Washington State took a step back after going to a bowl in 2013, but there is a good offense on board this season behind a decent QB (Luke Falk), and if things break right they could cover some spreads.

Why not to bet the Cougars: The defense was chaotic last season, and the D-coordinator was let go in mid-season. Yikes. Bringing in a slew on JUCO transfers is a sign that they’re having trouble luring blue-chip recruits to Pullman.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Colorado Buffaloes (2014: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 50-1
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Buffaloes: The won-loss tally was disturbing, but Colorado was actually competitive in the conference last season. They have a good QB in Sefo Liufu, and a rotation of running backs that should kill clock.

Why not to bet the Buffaloes: There is still a bad aftertaste after the way the defense played last year, and several coaches on that side of the ball were let go. Moving forward in the Pac 12 is out of the question until the Buffaloes can tighten things up on that side of the ball.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Oregon State Beavers (2014: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 50-1
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Beavers: Could be value to be had with big lines as Oregon State starts over with new coach Gary Andersen. Since no returning QB has any experience, they’ll pound the ball with veteran RB Storm Woods. When they do throw, the wideouts aren’t half-bad.

Why not to bet the Beavers: Only two starters return on defense from a team that struggled on D last season. It’s going to be a tough grind as OSU continues to play second fiddle in the state.

Season win total pick: Under 4

XSPower · Aug 17, 2015

SEC conference college football betting preview: Surprise, surprise, Alabama is the team to beat BY Will Rodgers

Alabama Crimson Tide (2014: 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +300
Season win total: 9.5

Why to bet the Crimson Tide: Nick Saban's squad always has one of the top recruiting classes, and they come into the 2015 season with another talented group of freshman. The strength of this team is in it's defense, returning eight starters from 2014. The defensive line is as good as it's ever been, and Reggie Ragland turned down the NFL to play another year after recording 95 tackles last season.

Why not to bet the Crimson Tide: There was no money to be made backing Alabama last season, as they failed to cover in nine of their 14 games. They will likely continue to be overrated by the bookmakers this season, and replacing their starting quarterback, top wide receiver and leading rusher is going to be a daunting task. Whoever the new quarterback is will be thrown right into the fire with a neutral site game against Wisconsin in Week 1.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Georgia Bulldogs (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +450
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Bulldogs: Nick Chubb emerged as one of the most talented running backs in the SEC, running for 1547 yards as a freshman in 2014. He's considered a true contender for the Heisman this year, behind a skilled offensive line that returns four starters.

Why not to bet the Bulldogs: There are plenty of question marks in the passing game, with a new quarterback and a lack of experience at wide receiver. It could take some time for things to come together under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
Season win total pick: Over 9

Auburn Tigers (2014: 8-5 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +475
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Tigers: The arrival of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has the Tigers extremely optimistic about their defense in 2015. He's getting eight starters back from last season's depth chart, including the top three tacklers: safety Jonathan Ford and linebackers Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost.

Why not to bet the Tigers: The Tigers only have four starters returning on offense, and backup Jeremy Johnson will take over for Nick Marshall at quarterback. They won't have a lot of time to figure things out, as they travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU in mid September in their first game in conference play.

Season win total: Under 8.5

LSU Tigers (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +775
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Leonard Fournette appears to be primed for a big season, and the former five star recruit comes in bigger and stronger than he's ever been according to Les Miles. The Tigers return eight starters on both sides of the ball, and they should have one of the best secondaries in the nation again in 2015.

Why not to bet the Tigers: Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris were both brutal at quarterback last season, and neither has shown significant signs of improvement heading into 2015. The duo managed to throw for more than 150 yards just once during conference play last season, and that was a loss to Mississippi State.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Mississippi Rebels (2014: 9-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Rebels: Mississippi returns nine starters on offense, and eight starters on a defensive unit that finished the 2014 season ranked 1st in the nation allowing an average of just 16 points per game. All five starters return on the offensive line, and that will make life easier for a team breaking in a new quarterback.

Why not to bet the Rebels: They beat Alabama last year, but that was in Oxford. They will have to travel to Tuscaloosa to play the Crimson Tide this year, and Alabama hasn't lost at home since 2012. They also have tough road games at Auburn and Florida.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Arkansas Razorbacks (2014: 7-6 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +950
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Razorbacks: Brandon Allen is back at quarterback for his third season as a starter, the Razorbacks first three-year starter in over a decade. He threw for 2125 yards with 20 TDs and just five picks in 2014. He'll have plenty of help in the backfield with a pair of 1000 yard rushers in Jonathan Williams
and Alex Collins.

Why not to bet the Razorbacks: They haven't won in conference play on the road since October of 2012, and they have a tough schedule this season with road games against Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Tennessee Volunteers (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1100
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Vols: Tennessee returns an SEC best 10 starters on offense in 2015, and eight starters on defense. Expectations are sky high in Knoxville after a blowout win over Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl. Josh Dobbs threw for 1206 yards and nine TDs in six starts last year, and he's expected to take over as the Vols quarterback of the future.

Why not to bet the Vols: It's important to keep things in perspective, and beating up on a below average BIG10 team in a bowl game is hardly enough reason to expect a young team to compete with the elite teams in the SEC.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Missouri Tigers (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1800
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Maty Mauk returns at quarterback, and he finished last season strong, winning five of six games and throwing for nine TDs and just two INTs. Russell Hansbrough ran for 1084 yards and 10 TDs last year, and he should be primed for a big season behind an experienced offensive line that returns five starters.

Why not to bet the Tigers: They lose all three starters at wide receiver for the second consecutive season, and that could make life difficult for Maty Mauk. They also lost a lot of talent on defense, and it could be asking too much for young players to fill those holes.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Texas A&M Aggies (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the the conference: +2300
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Aggies: Kyle Allen took over at quarterback in the middle of last season, and he would make an impact early on. He threw for 277 yards with four TDs and one INT in an upset win over the Auburn Tigers on November 8. This team won't have much trouble scoring points with Allen throwing to Speedy Noil and Josh Reynolds.

Why not to bet the Aggies: The Aggies owned one of the SEC's worst defenses last year, allowing an average of over 28 points per game. They brought in John Chavis who comes over from LSU to be the new defensive coordinator, but he's going to struggle to turn things around in just one season.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Florida Gators (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3300
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Gators: The offense sputtered under Will Muschamp, but Gator fans hope new head coach Jim McElwain will be able to get this team scoring again. If you look at what he did at Colorado State last season, it suggests he could be the right man for the job.

Why not to bet the Gators: Muschamp really made a mess of this team, and that leaves McElwain coming into a tough situation. They will have an inexperienced offensive line that could limit their success in the running game, ultimately putting more pressure on the passing game.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Bulldogs: Dak Prescott had a phenomenal season for Mississippi State last year, throwing for 3449 yards with 27 TDs and 11 INTs. He also ran for just shy of 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns. He was in the running for the Heisman Trophy for most of the season, and he's one of the favorites heading into 2015.

Why not to bet the Bulldogs: Gone is leading rusher Josh Robinson, along with several key offensive linemen. They must identify new starters at tackle, guard and find a new center. They also lost eight starters on a defense that ranked dead last in the conference against the pass.

Season win total: Under 7

South Carolina Gamecocks (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Gamecocks: The Gamecocks might have the best wide receiver in the SEC in Pharoh Cooper who caught 69 passes for 1,136 yards in 2014. Head coach Steve Spurrier feels confident he'll have the right man at quarterback: ““Connor Mitch is tremendously improved from when he first got here,” Spurrier says. “He seems to have a little bit more confidence and knows what to do now. I think he’s ready to take some giant steps.”

Why not to bet the Gamecocks: South Carolina's defense ranked 92nd nationally allowing an average of 30.4 points per game last year. They recorded just 14 sacks, and ranked 121st in the country in tackles for a loss. New defensive coordinator Jon Hoke has his work cut out for him.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Kentucky Wildcats (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +10500
Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Wildcats: They have plenty of returning talent with seven returning starters on both offense and defense. They will have a bigger, more experienced and more physically imposing offensive line than they've had in recent years. Three straight Top 40 recruiting classes should start to pay dividends for head coach Mark Stoops in 2015.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: They finished last season with six straight losses after a 5-1 start. It won't be easy to get off to such a good start this season, as they face South Carolina, Florida and Missouri in the month of September.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Vanderbilt Commodores (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +50000
Season win total: 3

Why to bet the Commodores: If you want something done right, you do it yourself. That seems to be the train of thought for Commodores head coach Derek Mason, who fired his defensive coordinator, and will assume the duties himself in 2015. “I am loving it,” he said during the spring. “I don’t know why I ever gave it up. Probably best decision I have made is to come back and run the defense.”

Why not to bet the Commodores: They ranked last in the SEC in total offense and scoring offense in 2014, and they failed to win a game against a conference opponent. They may well be better than they were last year, but that might not be enough to translate into wins in the toughest conference in the country.

Season win total pick: Over 3

United · Aug 18, 2015

Thanks for all the info XS.

Good luck this season!

XSPower · Aug 19, 2015

United said:
Thanks for all the info XS.

Good luck this season!

The season can't get here quick enough my friend..... have a great season as well my friend!!!

Greenbacks · Aug 19, 2015

Good stuff.....GL this season!

XSPower · Aug 20, 2015

MAC conference college football betting preview: Can NIU be dethroned? by Wiil Rodgers

Northern Illinois Huskies (2014: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +325
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois comes in not just as the defending MAC champions, but winners of the conference in four of the last five seasons. They bring back 14 starters from 2014, and quarterback Drew Hare returns after throwing for 18 TDs and just two picks in his first year as a starter.

Why not to bet the Huskies: Hare lacks the running ability of Jordan Lynch and Chandler Harnish before him, and the running game might not be as strong as it was last year. They will have to replace Cameron Stingily who led the team with 900 yards and 14 TDs last year. The offensive line is another story, as they only return two starters from last year's unit.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Toledo Rockets (2014: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +325
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Rockets: Kareem Hunt ran for 1631 yards and 18 TDs in 2014, and the star running back will be back for another season. They Rockets are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the ball, and they have the luxury of playing seven home games in 2015.

Why not to bet the Rockets: The biggest concern for this team will be a completely rebuilt offensive line that replaces five starters from a year ago. The non-conference schedule isn't going to be a cakewalk, with a neutral site game versus Arkansas in Week 2, and a home game against Iowa State the following week.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Bowling Green Falcons (2014: 8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +425
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Falcons: This team comes into the 2015 season with almost all of it's key contributors on offense back from a 2014 season that saw them win a second straight MAC East title. Matt Johnson is back at quarterback after suffering a season ending injury in Week 1 last year. Johnson threw for 393 yards and five TDs in the 2013 MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois.

Why not to bet the Falcons: The outlook isn't as optimistic for the Falcons defense that allowed opponents to average more than 33 points on almost 500 yards per game in 2014. Seven starters need to be replaced, and head coach Dino Babers is rolling the dice with what will be a young and inexperienced defense.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Western Michigan Broncos (2014: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +525
Season win total: 8

Why to bet the Broncos: This team won eight game in 2014, and it returns 16 starters, nine on offense. Zach Terrell threw for 3443 yards and 26 TDs in 2014, and he was named the MAC's Offensive Player of the Year. He'll have his top two targets back, including Corey Davis who led the MAC with 1,408 receiving yards and 86 receptions last year.

Why not to bet the Broncos: After winning eight games last year, expectations are high in 2015, perhaps too high. Head coach P.J. Fleck admits: "We probably won more games on paper than what kind of football team we actually had." The Broncos have a brutal non conference schedule that includes a week 1 game against Michigan State, and a road game at Ohio State a few weeks later.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Akron Zips (2014: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Zips: Akron is stacked on the defensive side of the ball, returning six starters from a unit that ranked first in the conference in points allowed last season, allowing opponents to average 23.1 points per game. They also bring in some high profile transfers, including a pair of former Ohio State players in Se'Von Pittman and Jamal Marcus.

Why not to bet the Zips: Akron ranked dead last in the MAC in passing efficiency last year, and third year quarterback Kyle Pohl completed just 55 percent of his passes and threw 18 interceptions in 12 games. The Zips will also be replacing their leading rusher and top two receivers from last year.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Ohio Bobcats (2014: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Bobcats: Senior quarterback Derrius Vick returns after an injury plagued 2014 season that saw him throw for 1156 yards with eight TDs and four INTs. The offensive line returns all five starters, and running back A.J. Ouellette returns after running for 785 yards as a freshman (2nd highest total in team history).

Why not to bet the Bobcats: The biggest problem for the Bobcats might be their schedule, which features a couple tough road games at Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, and non-conference games against Marshall and Minnesota.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Massachusetts Minutemen (2014: 3-9 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Minutemen: The 2015 squad returns 18 starters from last year, giving them plenty of experience on both sides of the ball. Blake Frohnapfel returns at quarterback for his senior year, and that's good news for an offense that ranked 1st in the conference in passing in 2014.

Why not to bet the Minutemen: After winning a total of five games over the last three seasons, it might be asking a bit too much for this team to win five games this year. The defense will have to come a long way after allowing opponents to average 33 points per game in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

Ball State Cardinals (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2300
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Cardinals: Ball State finished last season strong winning four of it's final six games. They bring back 17 starters from that squad, and they have an abundance of talent and depth at the wide receiver position.

Why not to bet the Cardinals: Pete Lembo will roll the dice with second year quarterback Jack Milas who completed just 55 percent of his passes last year. “I’m not going to say he has arrived by any means,” Lembo says, “but he’s more comfortable out there.”

Season win total pick: Under 7

Kent State Golden Flashes (2014: 2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State won the MAC Championship in 2012 behind a punishing rushing attack that featured Dri Archer (now with the Pittsburgh Steelers), and 250lb tailback Trayion Durham. Injuries have prevented Durham from reaching his full potential the last two seasons, but if he can stay healthy he should have a breakout season in 2015.

Why not to bet the Golden Flashes: Returning 11 starters on defense sounds like good news, but keeping in mind that this unit allowed opponents to average 29 points and 430 yards per game last year, it's fair to say that there is plenty of work to do.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5

Central Michigan Chippewas (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Chippewas: They are in good shape with Cooper Rush returning at quarterback for a third season. Rush threw for a record seven TDs in last year's blowout win over Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl.

Why not to bet the Chippewas: Success won't come easy for new head coach John Bonamego, as the Chippewas have a brutal schedule to look forward to. They will be lucky to avoid losing four of their first five games, as they host Oklahoma State in Week 1, before facing Syracuse and Michigan state on the road over the next three weeks. They begin conference play with a home game against the defending champion Huskies.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Buffalo Bulls (2014: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5.5

Why to bet the Bulls: Joe Licata will return at quarterback for the Bulls, and he's thrown a school record 60 TD passes over the last three seasons. He'll be handing the ball off to another talented senior in tailback Anthone Taylor, who ran for 1,403 yards last year (second most in school history).

Why not to bet the Bulls: This team will be thin on the defensive side of the ball with just three starters returning from 2014. Buffalo is also taking a huge gamble on a new head coach coming out of Division III, with no FBS experience.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5

Miami-Ohio Redhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +17500
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Redhawks: The strength of this team is in it's defense, which returns four starters on the line, and there is plenty of experience in the defensive backfield. Opening an indoor practice facility is also a positive step for a program that appears to be on the rise.

Why not to bet on the Redhawks: The offense is a mess, as their most experienced quarterback will suit up at defensive end (Austin Gearing), while Gus Ragland and Drew Kummer battle it out for the starting job. It's a similar story at running back and wide receiver with a lack of returning talent leaving holes to be filled by freshman.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Eastern Michigan Eagles (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 1.5

Why to bet the Eagles: They will have a talented young quarterback in Reginald Bell, a former state track champion at California. He ran for 202 yards and three TDs in a win over Buffalo in October of last year, and finished the season strong with nine TD passes over the last seven weeks.

Why not to bet the Eagles: Last year's team ranked among the worst in the nation on defense, allowing over 40 points and nearly 500 yards per game. They return seven defensive starters, so there is a chance that they may improve, but it likely won't be enough to make this team competitive in the MAC.

Season win total pick: Over 1.5

ERockMoney · Aug 20, 2015

XS,

Excellent work as always. Best of luck this season.

Continued success.

XSPower · Aug 20, 2015

Mountain West college football betting preview: Look for Boise State to be strong yet again by Steve Merril

Air Force Falcons (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1600
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Falcons: Air Force is a team that always gives their all, and for that reason alone, they can never be counted out of a game. The Falcons return 11 starters from their 10-win team in 2014, and that is a decent amount of experience for a service academy team. Air Force may prove to be a tough out once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Falcons: They made a big jump last season, going from 2 wins in 2013 to 10 wins in 2014. The biggest improvement came on defense where they held opponents to just 24.2 points per game after allowing 40 points per game the season before. Teams that fit that profile tend to regress the following season, so it’s highly unlikely the Falcons will repeat last season’s success.

Season win total pick: Over 6

Boise State Broncos (2014: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -260
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Broncos: Boise State has a strong team every year, and 2015 will be no different. The Broncos have the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference by a wide margin, so they will dominate the line of scrimmage in their games. With 17 returning starters, Boise State has a formidable team once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Broncos: Despite the abundance of talent still on hand, Boise State has to replace quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi on offense. The Broncos also have to replace exceptional place kicker Dan Goodale who led a very good special teams unit. Boise State is a known commodity, so there’s not much value left on the Broncos.

Season win total pick: Under 10

Colorado State Rams (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2300
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Rams: Colorado State has gone 18-9 over the last two years, so they’ve been a much better team in recent seasons. The Rams return 15 starters, so there’s plenty of playing experience coming back. Colorado State will certainly be underdogs against the top teams in the conference, so the value will remain in 2015 despite winning 18 games over the last two seasons.

Why not bet the Rams: The Rams have a lot to replace, beginning with head coach Jim McElwain. Mike Bobo takes over, and he’ll have to replace a top quarterback, running back, and their top two defensive players. Colorado State’s conference schedule is tough, especially since they finish the season by playing three of their last four games on the road.

Season win total pick: Under 7

New Mexico Lobos (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Lobos: Head coach Bob Davie returns for his fourth season at New Mexico, and he has 14 returning starters to work with. The Lobos have a terrific rushing attack that has averaged over 300 yards per game in all three seasons under Davie. New Mexico’s ability to run the ball and control the clock keeps them competitive in the majority of their games.

Why not bet the Lobos: New Mexico hasn’t had a winning season since 2007, and a major reason for that has been the lack of a defense. The Lobos’ defense has allowed and average of 36.3 points and 493.3 yards per game over the last three years. Last year, New Mexico was out-gained by an average of 148 yards per game in conference play alone.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Utah State Aggies (2014: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Aggies: Utah State had a revolving door at quarterback in 2014, and they still won 10 games. The Aggies will return talented Chuckie Keeton under center this year after his missed the final 10 games with injury. Keeton is dynamic, and he’ll lead an offense that returns nine starters. Utah State’s defense is also terrific as they’ve held opponents to just an average of 17.4 points per game over the last three seasons.

Why not bet the Aggies: The team has a lot of promise, but keep in mind their best player is coming back from multiple injuries. It’s no given that Keeton will be healthy, and if his injuries reoccur, the Aggies could regress sharply. Utah State is a popular sleeper team in the MWC this season, so they will be playing with the pressure of high expectations.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Wyoming Cowboys (2014: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Cowboys: Wyoming will play their second season under head coach Craig Bohl who was very successful at North Dakota State (104-32). The Cowboys were transitioning new schemes on both sides of the ball last season, so year two should see a nice improvement, especially on offense. Wyoming will have a good offensive line and a good running game, so they’ll be a competitive team in 2015.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The biggest concern coming into 2015 for Wyoming is their inexperience. The Cowboys only return 9 starters which is the fewest in the Mountain West conference. The schedule is weak early on, but Wyoming will have to face Boise State and Utah State in back-to-back weeks on the road to close out the month of October.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Fresno State Bulldogs (2014: 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3300
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Tim DeRuyter has done a fantastic job in his three years at Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 20-6 in conference play under DeRuyter, so they have plenty of confidence coming into the 2015 season. Fresno State is off an overall disappointing 6-8 season, so there’s plenty of motivation for a winning season in 2015.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: The Bulldogs only return 11 starters, and they play a brutal non-conference schedule this season. Fresno State will play at Mississippi and at BYU while hosting Utah. Those three games are tough, especially for a team that regressed on both sides of the ball in 2014. There’s a lot of unknowns for the Bulldogs coming into this season, so taking a wait and see approach may be the best thing to do early on.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Hawaii Warriors (2014: 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +6600
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Warriors: Hawaii suffered through another miserable 4-9 season in head coach Norm Chow’s third year on the job. Expectations are extremely low in Honolulu, so the Warriors may be able to surprise some teams this year. Hawaii does return 14 starters, so there are some positives coming into 2015.

Why not bet the Warriors: The program has been in steady decline over the last four seasons, and the talent has dropped off significantly. Losing teams are hard to back, especially when they are just 8-29 under their current head coach. The schedule is brutal with trips to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Boise State. It will be more of the same for Hawaii in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Nevada Wolf Pack (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3500
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Wolf Pack: Nevada made a nice improvement in 2014 in their second season under head coach Brian Polian. The Wolf Pack won 7 games last season, and their record could have been even better as three of their losses came by exactly 7 points each. The offense and defense improved on both sides of the ball, so another step forward will get Nevada into another bowl game in 2015.

Why not bet the Wolf Pack: The team returns only 11 starters after having 17 starters back for last season. The Wolf Pack lost senior quarterback Cody Fajardo to graduation, and his production is of utmost importance to replace. Nevada’s defense will have the spotlight on them, but after losing some key pieces, it’s a stretch to think they can match last year’s numbers when they allowed a respectable 27.2 points per game.

Season win total pick: Under 7

San Diego State Aztecs (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Aztecs: San Diego State has had a winning record in five consecutive years, and with 14 returning starters, 2015 should be another winning campaign. The Aztecs play a favorable schedule this season, and their defense will be a stout unit once again. They only allowed 19.8 points per game in 2014.

Why not bet the Aztecs: The Aztecs regressed on offense last season, so they’ll need to bounce back strong if they want to contend for a conference title in 2015. San Diego State also needs significant improvement away from home where they went just 1-5 last season.

Season win total pick: Over 7

San Jose State Spartans (2014: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Spartans: San Jose State will be in their third season under head coach Ron Caragher, and significant improvement is quite possible. The Spartans return 16 starters, including ten on offense. San Jose State will be underdogs in the majority of their games this season, but don’t sell the Spartans short in 2015.

Why not bet the Spartans: Even though San Jose State returns ten offensive starters, the unit was terrible last season; they only averaged 19.3 points per game in 2014. The Spartans also play a very tough schedule, including games at Oregon State and at Auburn out of conference.

Season win total pick: Over 4

UNLV Rebels (2014: 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +35000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Rebels: UNLV is projected be one of the worst teams in college football this season. And that means the Rebels will likely be big underdogs in just about every one of their games this season. With expectations extremely low in Las Vegas, playing the Rebels will take courage, and the abundance of points will be plentiful.

Why not bet the Rebels: As alluded to above, UNLV will be a terrible team. The Rebels hired a local high school coach that brings a lot of hope, but he has no collegiate coaching experience. There’s a major rebuilding project ahead for the UNLV program, and in its current situation, the Rebels are a team to avoid at all costs.

Season win total pick: Under 2

XSPower · Aug 20, 2015

Greenbacks2 said:
Good stuff.....GL this season!

Thank you sir and good luck this season as well......

XSPower · Aug 22, 2015

College football Betting 101: Importance of capping coaching changes by jason logan

In order to help you focus your energy on the most important components of college football capping this summer, we’ve asked some of Covers Experts top handicappers to share what they do when preparing for the NCAA pigskin season.

Part II on this Betting 101 series focuses on handicapping teams undergoing coaching changes, whether that be head coaches or coordinators, and how they will adjust to new schemes and systems in the early NCAAF schedule:

Capping Coaching Changes

There are 15 teams with new head coaches heading into the 2015 college football season, not as bad as the 20 new hires in 2014. That number is really tame compared to the 31 new coaches who took the sidelines in 2013. Needless to say, coaches are on a shorter leash than ever when it comes to producing winning results in the FBS ranks.

“Coaching changes happen all the time in College Football,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports. “Sometimes a head coach will get wooed by a bigger school, other times it's in hopes of re-energizing a struggling program. Make sure to know exactly what the situation is when it comes to a team with a new coach, over or under-reacting to these types of scenarios is something that a lot of novice bettors tend to do.”

We take a look at three ways in which coaching changes can impact your college football bets in the early stages of the NCAAF season, which programs fall into those categories, and how you should treat those transitions when it comes to making your plays every Saturday.

Head Coaching Changes

As mentioned above, there are 15 FBS programs wiping the slate clean with a new head coach this season. Some schools are hoping these new leaders can return them to glory while others are scrambling to find a new coach after having theirs poached by a bigger program.

Obviously, the sexy hire of the college football offseason was Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. The former 49ers coach was chased out of the pros like Frankenstein on the run from pitchfork-wielding villagers and found his way to Ann Arbor, where he played his college ball.

Harbaugh has a legacy with the Wolverines, so expectations are sky high – perhaps too high in Year 1 with the Maize and Blue. Michigan has a monster challenge in Week 1, traveling to Salt Lake City to play the Utes in high altitude, which will test UM’s early-season conditioning. However, when you break it down, as long as Harbaugh gives Ohio State a run for its money, the Ann Arbor faithful will be appeased… for now.

While major-conference coaching swaps like Harbaugh’s are heavily publicized and monitored by the media – giving bettors excellent insight to every practice and scrimmage this offseason – the lesser-known coaching changes in the smaller conferences are tougher to tangle with.

In Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane are trying to inject life into their offense by hiring former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who takes over a 2-10 program (5-7 ATS) that finished 94th in scoring with 24.7 points per game.

Montgomery was with BU for a long time and helped make the Bears a national powerhouse in recent seasons, unleashing a playbook that topped the nation in yardage in 2014 and 2013, and finished second in 2012 and 2011.

Tulsa was one of the best Over bets in college football last season, going 10-2 Over/Under, thanks in large part to a defense that was gashed for more than 39 points per game – 122nd in the land. Since firming up that soft stop unit won’t happen overnight, Montgomery is more than comfortable simply trying to outgun opponents, which should make for sky-high totals in Tulsa this year.

New Coordinators

Head coaching changes get all the attention but switching up coordinators on either side of the ball can have just as big an impact – and hold more betting value, since not everyone is privy to that information.

“I pay extra attention to teams that are introducing new offensive or defensive schemes,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “I look closely at how healthy and experienced teams are along the offensive and defensive lines. Even if I’m not making any future wagers, I look at teams Over/Under projections, as it’s helpful in gauging expectations.”

One notable coordinator move this offseason was the hire of Andy Ludwig at Vanderbilt. Ludwig has been the brains behind some of the most dominating rushing attacks in recent years, helping etch the blueprint for Oregon’s up-tempo offense in the early 2000s and most recently calling the shots for Wisconsin.

Vanderbilt finished last in the SEC in scoring with just over 17 points per game and averaged just 109.25 yards on the ground. The Commodores will frequently hand off to budding star Ralph Webb, who rumbled for 912 as a redshirt freshman last year. A ground-and-pound style will have Vandy upping their time of possession (29:29.58 in 2014, 72nd in country) but also keeping scores low. And with four starters back on the offensive line, the Under could be a popular pick with the Commodores.

Coaches On The Hot Seat

While this may not be an official coaching change, there are plenty of guys wearing the headsets that will likely be headset-less next fall - if they don’t turn their programs around pronto.

“Coaches that need statement wins to make fans forget about last year: This can be coaches taking over new programs and had disappointing results last year or coaches that are on the hot seat,” says one professional handicapper.

Jim McElwain looks to make a big splash at Florida in the early goings of the season. He comes to Gainesville from Colorado State, putting the hopes of a once-dominant program on his shoulders. McElwain eases his toe into the SEC waters, playing tuneup tilts with New Mexico State and East Carolina before facing Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Expect the Gators new coach to lay it on thick in those first few games to get the Florida faithful behind him.

Staying in the Sunshine State, Miami head coach Al Golden is sitting on the hot seat entering 2015. He survived 2014 despite the Hurricanes losing their final four games of the schedule, including a bowl loss to South Carolina. Miami fans will be calling for his head if the Cans stumble out of the blocks.

Miami opens against FCS Bethune Cookman and Florida Atlantic in two must-dominate games for Golden. The Hurricanes have a much stiffer test in Nebraska in Week 3, with the Huskers and their new coach Mike Riley trying to establish themselves as a power program once again. Early odds have Miami as a 2-point home favorite, out to avenge a 41–31 loss to the Cornhuskers last season.

XSPower · Aug 22, 2015

C-USA college football betting preview: Marshall thundering towards another C-USA crown BY STEVE MERRIL

Charlotte 49ers (2014: 5-6 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +50000

Season win total: 2

Why bet the 49ers:

Charlotte will be in their third season under head coach Brad Lambert, and the 49ers return 17 starters from last year's team that went 5-6. Five of their six losses came by 8 points or less, so Charlotte was a competitive team in 2014. Close games tend to reverse the following season, and since the 49ers will likely be underdogs in the majority of their games, they could surprise some opponents in 2015.

Why not bet the 49ers:

The team is transitioning from FCS to FBS in 2015. And in fact, Charlotte has never played an FBS opponent before, so the big step-up in class may prove to be too demanding for the 49ers. FBS teams are typically bigger, stronger, and faster than FCS teams, so it will be interesting to see how Charlotte matches-up with their opponents.

Season win total pick: Under 2

Florida Atlantic Owls (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3200

Season win total: 5

Why bet the Owls:

The team only won three games in 2014, but they played much better than their record indicates. Florida Atlantic lost an incredible four games in which they led with less than a minute left to play. With 12 starters returning for the second season under head coach Charlie Partridge, the Owls could surprise in 2015.

Why not bet the Owls:

Florida Atlantic was terrible in road games last season. The Owls went 0-7 away from home while getting out-scored 255-96. They can't be trusted on the road until they show some competitiveness. The schedule is also tough as they'll face eight opponents that won 6 games or more last season.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Florida International Golden Panthers (2014: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference:+30000

Season win total: 6

Why bet the Golden Panthers:

Florida International was much better in head coach Ron Turner's second season despite only winning four games. The Panthers lost four games by three points or less, so they were a competitive team in 2014. With 15 returning starters, the Panthers should improve once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Golden Panthers:

Ron Turner has only had three winning seasons in eleven years as a head coach. Florida International has had a losing season in eight of the last ten years, so coach and program have a long history of losing. Florida International faces a brutal schedule with seven road games, including four of their first five games coming away from home.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Marshall Thundering Herd (2014: 13-1 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference:+230

Season win total: 10

Why bet the Thundering Herd:

Marshall is once again the favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd also get a favorable schedule as they avoid the top two teams (LA Tech and Rice) from the West division. Marshall has the most talent in C-USA, so they are deserving of their high expectations.

Why not bet the Thundering Herd:

The Thundering Herd only returns 11 starters, and they must replace quarterback Rakeem Cato who threw for 3,903 yards and 40 touchdown passes in 2014. Marshall's offense averaged 45.6 points per game in 2014, and it's highly unlikely they'll repeat that in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 10

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (2014: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1400

Season win total: 7

Why bet the Blue Raiders:

Middle Tennessee State returns 16 starters this season, and they've been excellent in conference play. The Blue Raiders are 11-5 SU against conference opponents over the last two years, and this year's team is more talented and more experienced.

Why not bet the Blue Raiders:

MTSU's defense inexplicably had a bad season in 2014. The stop unit was projected to be one of the best in the conference, but they allowed 31.5 points and 452 yards per game. Middle Tennessee's season hinges on the play of their defense, and a repeat of 2014 will make them an average team in 2015.

Season win total pick:Under 7
Old Dominion Monarchs (2014: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000

Season win total: 4

Why bet the Monarchs:

Old Dominion went a respectable 6-6 in their first full year in the FBS. The Monarchs have a winning program; they are 52-20 SU over the last ten years. Head coach Bobby Wilder begins his seventh season, and he's built a potent offensive system that has averaged 32.7 points per game or more in all six of his years at Old Dominion.

Why not bet the Monarchs:

Old Dominion's problem has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Monarchs have allowed an average of 36 points and 452 yards per game over the last two years. They only return five starters on defense this season, and there's nothing to suggest the stop unit will be improved.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +305

Season win total: 7

Why bet the Hilltoppers:

Western Kentucky's offense projects to be explosive once again this season with 7 starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The Hilltoppers averaged 44.4 points per game in 2014 under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. Western Kentucky will be a tough team to stop in 2015.

Why not bet the Hilltoppers:

The team returns nine starters on defense, but numerous question marks still remain. The unit gave up 39.9 points on 510 yards per game last season, so major improvement is needed if Western Kentucky wants to take a step forward.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2014: 9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +280

Season win total: 8

Why bet the Bulldogs:

Louisiana Tech is in their third year under head coach Skip Holtz, and the Bulldogs are the clear-cut favorites to win the West. The Bulldogs will have Florida transfer Jeff Driskel at quarterback, so the offense shouldn't skip a beat after averaging 37.4 points per game in 2014.

Why not bet the Bulldogs:

Last season, Louisiana Tech fielded a strong and opportunistic defense. They gave up just 24.7 points per game while forcing 42 turnovers, the most in the nation. However, only six starters return on the stop unit, so their numbers are quite likely to regress sharply in 2015.

Season win total pick:Over 8

North Texas Mean Green (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference:+8000

Season win total: 5

Why bet the Mean Green:

North Texas has a pretty good defense based on C-USA standards. The Mean Green returns six starters from a unit that only allowed 29.8 points per game in 2014. They only had four defensive starters return last season, so they turned in a decent result considering the circumstances. Their ability to play solid defense may be enough to keep them competitive.

Why not bet the Mean Green:

The team has a slew of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, especially along the line. North Texas must replace four starters on the line, and their quarterback situation remains in flux. The Mean Green also play a brutal schedule that includes seven true road games.

Season win total pick:Under 5

Rice Owls (2014: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference:+700

Season win total: 7

Why bet the Owls:

Rice is 18-9 over the last two seasons, so they come into the 2015 season with confidence and momentum. The Owls' best offensive attribute is their running game, and their ability to possess the ball and control the clock makes them very competitive in this conference.

Why not bet the Owls:

Rice only returns three starters on defense, so they are basically starting over on that side of the ball. The Owls tend to get overwhelmed by strong offenses, and that will be the case once again this season, especially with little experience returning.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000

Season win total: 4

Why bet the Golden Eagles:

The Golden Eagles return 16 starters, and they will be in the third year of head coach Todd Monken's system. Improvement often occurs in the third year of a coach's tenure, especially when the offense and defense was better than the season before.

Why not bet the Golden Eagles:

Southern Miss is an ugly 4-32 SU over the last three years. The offense returns ten starters, so they'll have no excuse in 2015, but we're still talking about a unit that only averaged 19 points per game last season. Southern Miss has been an underdog in 20 of their last 24 games, but they project to be favored in half of their games this season. Backing losing teams when laying points is not a winning strategy.

Season win total pick: Over 4

UTEP Miners (2014: 7-6 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3200

Season win total: 6

Why bet the Miners:

UTEP will be in the third year of head coach Sean Kugler's system. Kugler cleaned out the dead weight, and the team responded by going 7-6 in 2014. The team is built to be a physical running team, and their offensive line is one of the best in C-USA. The Miners can control the clock, and that alone can keep them competitive.

Why not bet the Miners:

The Miners shocked everybody last year by making a bowl game. But UTEP only returns 11 starters in 2015, and their unexpected reversal of form sets them up to regress a bit. The Miners were actually out-scored 28.1-26.6 in 2014 despite having a winning record. UTEP will likely be a .500 team at best in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 6

UTSA Roadrunners (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference:+10000

Season win total: 2

Why bet the Roadrunners:

UTSA returned one of the most experienced teams in the country last year as 20 starters were back. Expectations were extremely high, but the team disappointed, going just 4-8 SU and ATS. The opposite is the case in 2015 as expectations are low with only six returning starters. The Roadrunners will be underdogs in just about every game, so they may be able to sneak inside the big numbers.

Why not bet the Roadrunners:

The Roadrunners are one of the least experienced teams in all of college football this season. Their first four games are all extremely tough with road games at Arizona and Oklahoma State while hosting Kansas State and Colorado State. UTEP's confidence will be quite low after September, so tread lightly when backing this team in conference play.

Season win total pick: Over 2

groundhog11 · Aug 22, 2015

Good luck this year xs...

XSPower · Aug 22, 2015

ERockMoney said:
XS,

Excellent work as always. Best of luck this season.

Continued success.

Thank sir..... And to you do the same sir!!!

XSPower · Aug 22, 2015

ground hog11 said:
Good luck this year xs...

Good luck to you as well my friend..... Let's the games begin!!!!

XSPower · Aug 30, 2015

One week away....... Lets see how these number move!!!!

Time	Teams	ATS	Moneyline	Total
[h=1]College Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h]
(ET)		Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage
Thursday, September 3, 2015
6:00pm odds	(133) South Carolina Gamecocks (134) North Carolina Tar Heels	2044 1215	63% 37%	50 466	10% 90%	O728 U993	42% 58%
6:00pm odds	(135) Florida Intl Golden Panthers (136) Central Florida Knights	440 621	41% 59%	45 133	25% 75%	O502 U332	60% 40%
7:00pm odds	(137) Oklahoma State Cowboys (138) Central Michigan Chippewas	827 546	60% 40%	268 85	76% 24%	O673 U309	69% 31%
8:00pm odds	(211) W. Kentucky Hilltoppers (212) Vanderbilt Commodores	910 825	52% 48%	181 135	57% 43%	O570 U580	50% 50%
8:30pm odds	(139) Michigan Wolverines (140) Utah Utes	1669 1390	55% 45%	483 366	57% 43%	O829 U990	46% 54%
9:00pm odds	(141) TCU Horned Frogs (142) Minnesota Golden Gophers	1405 813	63% 37%	528 45	92% 8%	O874 U493	64% 36%
9:00pm odds	(145) Ohio Bobcats (146) Idaho Vandals	722 439	62% 38%	15 2	88% 12%	O347 U324	52% 48%
9:30pm odds	(143) Duke Blue Devils (144) Tulane Green Wave	968 601	62% 38%	229 129	64% 36%	O592 U484	55% 45%
10:00pm odds	(147) TX-San Antonio Roadrunners (148) Arizona Wildcats	371 623	37% 63%	34 126	21% 79%	O444 U269	62% 38%
11:59pm odds	(149) Colorado Buffaloes (150) Hawaii Warriors	567 694	45% 55%	83 84	50% 50%	O476 U445	52% 48%
Friday, September 4, 2015
3:30pm odds	(153) Charlotte (154) Georgia State Panthers	6 2	75% 25%	1 4	20% 80%	O2 U2	50% 50%
7:00pm odds	(151) Baylor Bears (152) SMU Mustangs	1551 629	71% 29%	287 228	56% 44%	O783 U522	60% 40%
7:00pm odds	(155) Michigan State Spartans (156) Western Michigan Broncos	1002 452	69% 31%	206 90	70% 30%	O332 U304	52% 48%
9:00pm odds	(157) Kent State Golden Flashes (158) Illinois Fighting Illini	475 528	47% 53%	50 62	45% 55%	O367 U369	50% 50%
10:15pm odds	(159) Washington Huskies (160) Boise State Broncos	867 931	48% 52%	48 311	13% 87%	O545 U611	47% 53%

XSPower · Aug 30, 2015

Time	Teams	ATS	Moneyline	Total
[h=1]College Football Consensus: Public Picks[/h]
(ET)		Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage	Picks	Percentage
Saturday, September 5, 2015
12:00pm odds	(171) Stanford Cardinal (172) Northwestern Wildcats	617 511	55% 45%	122 59	67% 33%	O495 U282	64% 36%
12:00pm odds	(189) UL Monroe Warhawks (190) Georgia Bulldogs	322 487	40% 60%	1 85	1% 99%	O359 U242	60% 40%
3:00pm odds	(161) Old Dominion Monarchs (162) Eastern Michigan Eagles	526 433	55% 45%			O274 U305	47% 53%
3:30pm odds	(165) Penn State Nittany Lions (166) Temple Owls	1334 800	63% 37%	325 230	59% 41%	O986 U380	72% 28%
3:30pm odds	(167) Florida Atlantic Owls (168) Tulsa Golden Hurricane	457 558	45% 55%			O299 U286	51% 49%
3:30pm odds	(169) Virginia Cavaliers (170) UCLA Bruins	540 430	56% 44%	1 96	1% 99%	O308 U288	52% 48%
3:30pm odds	(173) Louisville Cardinals (174) Auburn Tigers	625 896	41% 59%	236 42	85% 15%	O555 U428	56% 44%
3:30pm odds	(177) BYU Cougars (178) Nebraska Cornhuskers	622 999	38% 62%	174 124	58% 42%	O404 U631	39% 61%
3:30pm odds	(193) UTEP Miners (194) Arkansas Razorbacks	344 509	40% 60%	1 70	1% 99%	O360 U247	59% 41%
4:00pm odds	(185) Bowling Green Falcons (186) Tennessee Volunteers	473 895	35% 65%	1 67	1% 99%	O319 U272	54% 46%
6:00pm odds	(179) Troy Trojans (180) NC State Wolfpack	308 463	40% 60%	1 80	1% 99%	O313 U269	54% 46%
7:00pm odds	(175) Arizona State Sun Devils (176) Texas A&M Aggies	795 1056	43% 57%	274 132	67% 33%	O768 U427	64% 36%
7:00pm odds	(183) Akron Zips (184) Oklahoma Sooners	332 661	33% 67%	46 81	36% 64%	O359 U244	60% 40%
7:00pm odds	(191) UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (192) Kentucky Wildcats	385 692	36% 64%	4 182	2% 98%	O297 U281	51% 49%
7:30pm odds	(163) New Mexico State Aggies (164) Florida Gators	367 542	40% 60%	1 67	1% 99%	O372 U335	53% 47%
7:30pm odds	(181) UNLV Rebels (182) Northern Illinois Huskies	355 482	42% 58%	1 44	2% 98%	O317 U270	54% 46%
7:30pm odds	(195) Georgia Southern Eagles (196) West Virginia Mountaineers	541 757	42% 58%	2 56	3% 97%	O537 U352	60% 40%
7:30pm odds	(197) Texas Longhorns (198) Notre Dame Fighting Irish	747 1001	43% 57%	188 187	50% 50%	O446 U664	40% 60%
8:00pm odds	(199) Texas State Bobcats (200) Florida State Seminoles	343 575	37% 63%	1 70	1% 99%	O380 U309	55% 45%
8:00pm odds	(201) Wisconsin Badgers (202) Alabama Crimson Tide	927 1012	48% 52%	35 473	7% 93%	O523 U700	43% 57%
10:00pm odds	(203) Mississippi State Bulldogs (204) Southern Miss Golden Eagles	695 421	62% 38%	48 1	98% 2%	O395 U392	50% 50%
11:00pm odds	(205) Arkansas State Red Wolves (206) USC Trojans	371 617	38% 62%	46 108	30% 70%	O317 U408	44% 56%
Sunday, September 6, 2015
3:00pm odds	(207) Purdue Boilermakers (208) Marshall Thundering Herd	548 474	54% 46%	0 3	0% 100%	O331 U286	54% 46%
Monday, September 7, 2015
8:00pm odds	(209) Ohio State Buckeyes (210) Virginia Tech Hokies	1579 589	73% 27%	359 282	56% 44%	O1115 U303	79% 21%

XSPower · Aug 31, 2015

NCAAF Opening Line Report: Buckeyes open with another crack at the Hokies by covers

A year ago this week, Ohio State was 1-0, ranked No. 7 in the nation and full of high hopes, despite having already lost star quarterback Braxton Miller for the season.

But unranked Virginia Tech, a 10-point road underdog, bounced the Buckeyes 35-21. By the end of the season, Ohio State was on its third quarterback, Cardale Jones.

Oh, and the Buckeyes were also national champions, having vanquished Oregon 42-20 in the title game to cap the first year that the Football Bowl Subdivision had a playoff. Indeed, Ohio State’s only loss (14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS) was against VaTech – and the Buckeyes will get another crack at the Hokies on Sept. 7 in Blacksburg, in a contest that wraps up the first week of the 2015 season.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, likes the look of Ohio State, pegging the Buckeyes a 12-point chalk.

“We all know that Ohio State is loaded. Even with the absence of defensive end Joey Bosa (suspension), they're still loaded,” Avello said. “Virginia Tech returns 16 starters from last year’s 7-6 team (6-7 ATS), but coach Frank Beamer's teams have been underachievers the last three seasons.”

One thing Avello isn’t putting much stock in: an Ohio State desire to avenge its only blemish from 2014.

“I'm not putting a revenge factor into this one, because who needs revenge when you've won the national championship?”

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-10)

Part of a full first Saturday next weekend, this matchup is technically on a neutral field – AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. But it’s a hefty trip for the No. 20 Badgers, and the third-ranked Crimson Tide have been perennial national title contenders for several years now, winning it all in 2009, 2011 and 2012.

“The Badgers are going to be a good squad, but this is a tough opening act to start the season,” Avello said. “They also have a new coach (Gary Andersen), so it may take time to get to their full potential.”

‘Bama went 12-2 SU in 2014 (but a dismal 5-9 ATS), losing to Ohio State 42-35 as a 7.5-point chalk in the national semifinals. Wisconsin (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS in 2014) edged Auburn 34-31 in the Outback Bowl catching 5.5 points to cap its 2014 campaign.

“Alabama is Alabama. It's hard to find fault with a team that’s won the national championship three times since 2009,” Avello said. “But with multiple new players in starting roles on offense, the Tide may need a few games to get rolling.”

Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-5.5)

It’s a Thursday night kickoff in the debut for Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh, who played quarterback for Michigan back in the 1980s. But Michigan is coming off a 5-7 SU and ATS campaign (which explains the new coach), while the Utes were 9-4 SU and ATS last year.

“Michigan is most likely a year or two away from competing for the Big Ten's top spot or a national title, but with that being said, look for significant improvement from the Wolverines,” Avello said. “Playing on the road has been extremely difficult the last seven years for Michigan, with only 11 wins in 33 attempts.

“Utah has seven starters back on both offense and defense and should be as good as last year's team. But I expect Michigan money closer to game time, and the house will probably need the favorite.”

Texas Longhorns at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10)

The Longhorns, coming off a meager 6-7 season (7-6 ATS), are looking to restore their brand name, while the Fighting Irish won their first six games last season, then limped to an 8-5 SU finish (6-7 ATS).

“Last year's record is tough to swallow in Longhorns country. They did show signs of life toward the end of the season, but the quarterback position was just too inconsistent,” Avello said. “The Irish on paper look very good, especially on defense, where almost everybody returns. I expect a correction after they allowed an average of 30 points a game last season.”