Sat's 4-1-1 +200. Still made a few bucks
YTD 32-17-1 +929
Sunday's Plays--The way i read them. From various reports.
LAD - 175
Clayton Kershaw - The Astros strike out a lot against left handed pitching - their 22.9% rate is the 4th highest in the majors. They've put together the 10th highest wOBA against left handed pitching this season, but their .315 wOBA isn't terrifying or anything. Lance McCullers is a good pitcher, and a win isn't a forgone conclusion or anything. Still, the Astros' strike out rate and Kershaw's general awesomeness make him a fine cash game play.
Yasmani Grandal
He's got an .875 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and Houston's a friendlier place to hit than LA.
STL -137
Michael Wacha- the San Diego Padres got the 5th lowest wOBA and the 6th highest K% against right handed pitching this season, and are even worse than that at home. They also happen to be starting Colin Rea today. Rea had an xFIP over 4 in A+ ball last season, and was just OK in the minors in 2015. Great chance for a win.
Jhonny Peralta--He's a shortstop with a .765 OPS against right handed pitching this season, he's 2nd in the majors at his position in home runs, and 4th in the majors at SS in wOBA. He bats third on his team! plus he's facing a significantly bad pitcher today in Colin Rea.
Matt Carpenter--Carpenter has been .070 OPS points better against right handed pitching for his career, and is generally a line-drive machine. Colin Rea was getting bludgeoned for a 4.66 FIP in AAA ball before the Padres called him up this season, presumably to continue to lose on purpose. Like him plenty for cash.
Jason Heyward - He is pretty good against right handed pitching, and his surprising willingness to run makes him an interesting baseball play when the going is good. He's better against right handed pitching, and Petco shouldn't depress his speed.
LLA -137
Erick Aybar - He bats 6th behind some guys who can really hit, and while he doesn't do any real damage himself, he can still have a reasonable impact on the game in the right match-up. RA Dickey is just that. His 4.77 xFIP is the third worst in all the majors, and his knuckle-ball has gone all pumpkin-shaped on everyone.
Mike Trout - f you read Aybar's write-up, you could have probably seen this coming. Trout's got a 1K OPS against right handed and left handed pitching this season, but what he really does best is burn guys like Dickey alive. RA is just pitching batting practice at this point.
Over 8.5 Minn/Balt -117
[URL="http://razzball.com/player/9810/Brian+Dozier/"]Brian Dozier
[/URL]Opponent- Bal (Gausman) R Park- @Ba
25 homers and he's got 10 steals to go with them. He's pushing an .800 OPS against right handed pitching this season, making him playable against the right righties on the right night. Right? Right.
Jonathan Schoop -
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @BalPelfrey is a dream match-up for any hitter, and B-more's a fine place to hit. But wait, there's more! Schoop has been a reverse platoon split guy early in his career, and while it's admittedly BABIP fueled to some degree, his .915 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, even in a small sample size. What really drives this ranking, though, is Mike Pelfrey. His incredible 4.42 K/9 is the 2nd worst in the majors, trailing just Mark Buehrle when it comes to futility in striking out opposing hitters. Take Ks off the table for a young
guy like Schoop, and you have a fine play.
Adam Jones -
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Bal
Jones has been marginally better against right handed pitching over the course of his career, even if it hasn't been the case this season. Still, he's able to turn on even good right handed pitching, so facing one of the very worst pitchers in all of the major leagues makes this a pretty nice play. This is literally the ideal match-up and park for him.
Over 7.5 SF/Pitt +103
Buster Posey
Opponent- Pit (Liriano) L Park- @Pit
He's got a .964 OPS against left handed pitching in almost 900 career plate appearances against LHP. It's no fluke - Posey can mash a left handed pitcher. Now, Liriano is still something more than your average left handed pitcher, but after 4 crappy starts in a row, roll the dice in such a favorable platoon situation.
Neil Walker
opponent- SF (Vogelsong) R Park- @Pit
He's got 13 homers and 3 steals in 388 PAs against right handed pitching this season,
And Vogelsong, for his part, has a worse xFIP than even Pelfrey this season. He's allowed an OPS .160 points higher on the road than at home this season, and an .850 OPS against left handed hitters. Huge upside here, my friends, even if it doesn't look it at first blush.
Over 8 Arz/Cinn +105
Paul Goldschmidt -
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Cin
Goldschmidt last night against a righty as well, 4/4 with 2 homers! Goldie again on Sunday.
Todd Frazier -
Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Cin
Frazier in a near identical situation as last night, and he paid the price going away. Well, today's a fine day to roll it back. Anderson's an arguably worse pitcher than Delgado, and Frazier and the Reds should have similar success here. He strikes out fewer guys, gives up more homers, and his pitch-to-contact approach gives up lots of big Hits.
Jay Bruce -
Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Cin
He's got a .229 ISO against right handed pitching this season, and his OPS is .070 points higher against northpaws. you got the skivvy on Anderson already, but it bears repeating: he's a disaster start waiting to happen, what with his low K rate and total lack of put-away stuff.
YTD 32-17-1 +929
Sunday's Plays--The way i read them. From various reports.
LAD - 175
Clayton Kershaw - The Astros strike out a lot against left handed pitching - their 22.9% rate is the 4th highest in the majors. They've put together the 10th highest wOBA against left handed pitching this season, but their .315 wOBA isn't terrifying or anything. Lance McCullers is a good pitcher, and a win isn't a forgone conclusion or anything. Still, the Astros' strike out rate and Kershaw's general awesomeness make him a fine cash game play.
Yasmani Grandal
He's got an .875 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and Houston's a friendlier place to hit than LA.
STL -137
Michael Wacha- the San Diego Padres got the 5th lowest wOBA and the 6th highest K% against right handed pitching this season, and are even worse than that at home. They also happen to be starting Colin Rea today. Rea had an xFIP over 4 in A+ ball last season, and was just OK in the minors in 2015. Great chance for a win.
Jhonny Peralta--He's a shortstop with a .765 OPS against right handed pitching this season, he's 2nd in the majors at his position in home runs, and 4th in the majors at SS in wOBA. He bats third on his team! plus he's facing a significantly bad pitcher today in Colin Rea.
Matt Carpenter--Carpenter has been .070 OPS points better against right handed pitching for his career, and is generally a line-drive machine. Colin Rea was getting bludgeoned for a 4.66 FIP in AAA ball before the Padres called him up this season, presumably to continue to lose on purpose. Like him plenty for cash.
Jason Heyward - He is pretty good against right handed pitching, and his surprising willingness to run makes him an interesting baseball play when the going is good. He's better against right handed pitching, and Petco shouldn't depress his speed.
LLA -137
Erick Aybar - He bats 6th behind some guys who can really hit, and while he doesn't do any real damage himself, he can still have a reasonable impact on the game in the right match-up. RA Dickey is just that. His 4.77 xFIP is the third worst in all the majors, and his knuckle-ball has gone all pumpkin-shaped on everyone.
Mike Trout - f you read Aybar's write-up, you could have probably seen this coming. Trout's got a 1K OPS against right handed and left handed pitching this season, but what he really does best is burn guys like Dickey alive. RA is just pitching batting practice at this point.
Over 8.5 Minn/Balt -117
[URL="http://razzball.com/player/9810/Brian+Dozier/"]Brian Dozier
[/URL]Opponent- Bal (Gausman) R Park- @Ba
25 homers and he's got 10 steals to go with them. He's pushing an .800 OPS against right handed pitching this season, making him playable against the right righties on the right night. Right? Right.
Jonathan Schoop -
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @BalPelfrey is a dream match-up for any hitter, and B-more's a fine place to hit. But wait, there's more! Schoop has been a reverse platoon split guy early in his career, and while it's admittedly BABIP fueled to some degree, his .915 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, even in a small sample size. What really drives this ranking, though, is Mike Pelfrey. His incredible 4.42 K/9 is the 2nd worst in the majors, trailing just Mark Buehrle when it comes to futility in striking out opposing hitters. Take Ks off the table for a young
guy like Schoop, and you have a fine play.
Adam Jones -
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Bal
Jones has been marginally better against right handed pitching over the course of his career, even if it hasn't been the case this season. Still, he's able to turn on even good right handed pitching, so facing one of the very worst pitchers in all of the major leagues makes this a pretty nice play. This is literally the ideal match-up and park for him.
Over 7.5 SF/Pitt +103
Buster Posey
Opponent- Pit (Liriano) L Park- @Pit
He's got a .964 OPS against left handed pitching in almost 900 career plate appearances against LHP. It's no fluke - Posey can mash a left handed pitcher. Now, Liriano is still something more than your average left handed pitcher, but after 4 crappy starts in a row, roll the dice in such a favorable platoon situation.
Neil Walker
opponent- SF (Vogelsong) R Park- @Pit
He's got 13 homers and 3 steals in 388 PAs against right handed pitching this season,
And Vogelsong, for his part, has a worse xFIP than even Pelfrey this season. He's allowed an OPS .160 points higher on the road than at home this season, and an .850 OPS against left handed hitters. Huge upside here, my friends, even if it doesn't look it at first blush.
Over 8 Arz/Cinn +105
Paul Goldschmidt -
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Cin
Goldschmidt last night against a righty as well, 4/4 with 2 homers! Goldie again on Sunday.
Todd Frazier -
Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Cin
Frazier in a near identical situation as last night, and he paid the price going away. Well, today's a fine day to roll it back. Anderson's an arguably worse pitcher than Delgado, and Frazier and the Reds should have similar success here. He strikes out fewer guys, gives up more homers, and his pitch-to-contact approach gives up lots of big Hits.
Jay Bruce -
Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Cin
He's got a .229 ISO against right handed pitching this season, and his OPS is .070 points higher against northpaws. you got the skivvy on Anderson already, but it bears repeating: he's a disaster start waiting to happen, what with his low K rate and total lack of put-away stuff.
$$
