~Power Ratings~ Can Generate A Pointspread~ by System Smitty Ryann Jr.

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Some sports-books base all their lines on their own internal line-making, but the majority of books rely either solely on odds making services or a combination of external service and their own handicapping. Sharp bookies like our mentor late Bob Martin handicap the games themselves, compare these results to the opening lines out of Vegas and then adjusts for the historical action of their own player base before coming up with a consensus opening number for each game. From there, the numbers are moved only to balance action or to account for special circumstances such as weather, injuries or the like. A number of sports gamblers, both beginners and veterans, fail to understand the true meaning of the point spread and the thought process that goes behind the making of the spread for each game. The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game. The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog. The key advantage bettors have is that they do not have to wager on every game, but can pick and choose wagering opportunities. The bookie however, puts up a number every week, In a typical NFL week, there are 14 to 15 games for you to choose from and there are even multiple betting opportunities on each game. You may not have a good feel for every game, but you most likely see several games where you are confident that one team will cover with better than 63% probability. This is what J.J. Bascus as gambler & handicapper and his power rating with our crew refers to as an "overlay" or "getting value", which is our starting point of every gambler with in our crew.

For example only one set of ratings I saw a couple years ago Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins hold off Andrew Luck's comeback attempt as they defeat the Indianapolis Colts 24-20 in Week 2 of NFL action Sep 15, 2013. Miami rated 57 at home and Indianapolis rated 53 on the road, so the difference results in a 4 point line. Another set has Miami rated 75, Indianapolis rated 72, and gave a 3.5 point advantage to the home team so it predicted an opening line of 5. The actual line opened at 6 at some books, and was bet down quickly to 4.5, so it appears that 6 was too high. There are no standards for how to derive these ratings, and predicting actual outcomes with better accuracy than the majority of the betting public is your key to success. Power ratings involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate a point-spread. To conclude this post winning at sports betting is “all in the numbers, all in the timing.“The secret is patience. You always have the action. But you need to pick your spots. You need to exercise self-control.”

System Smitty Ryann Jr.[ J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst [ Las Vegas N.V.]

PS...I hope this will helpful in making your decisions and bets? Look for my threads for coming season and very good luck on your picks for the opening season of NFL. Looking forward to your replys,feedbacks any questions you might have with our picks and also yours.

~OurCrew~
J.J. Bascus Power Rating and Picks [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann Jr., J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst [ Las Vegas N.V.]/// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper for the 1st 3 weeks of NFLseason

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