Week 1 NFL Vegas Power Rankings
Dave Tuley, ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions and have been continuously in the news all offseason thanks to Deflategate, but the Seattle Seahawks enter the 2015 season as the top-ranked team in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
The Seahawks came up 1 yard short of back-to-back titles and have kept more of their defense together than the Patriots, and that helped get the nod in the combined power ratings from our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers -- Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England and San Francisco are typically given a full field goal, while Denver and New Orleans are closer to 3.5. Seattle is given the biggest home-field advantage in the league (about four points). Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
If you had used our recommendations the last time we updated the NFL Vegas Rankings after the draft, you would have three solid bets at numbers that are no longer available: New York Jets minus-2 vs. Cleveland (the line is now NYJ minus-3), Miami minus-2.5 vs. Washington (the line is up to MIA minus-4) and Minnesota plus-4 vs. San Francisco (the Vikings are now a 2.5-point favorite). After the rankings, we'll list any potential plays we see with the current numbers.
Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the Thursday night betting preview and my "Tuley's Takes" column Friday.
NFL Vegas Rankings
1. Seattle Seahawks (Power rating: 27) The Seahawks keep rolling along and are poised for another deep run (and they're doubly tough if they earn home field for the NFC playoffs). They've kept most of their championship-caliber team intact, plus added tight end Jimmy Graham. Their power rating is only decreased until they show they can return to their lofty postseason form.Previous rating: 28
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2. New England Patriots (26.5) A lot of people (and pollsters) consider the Patriots back to full strength after Tom Brady's suspension was overturned, but we'll see if Bill Belichick can overcome the loss on defense of Darrelle Revis,Brandon Browner and Vince Wilfork. Previous rating: 26.5
3 (tie). Green Bay Packers (26) The Packers have some issues on defense, but they were mostly downgraded because of the season-ending injury to WRJordy Nelson. Previous rating: 27
3 (tie). Denver Broncos (26) Gary Kubiak replaces John Fox as head coach and we'll see if Peyton Manning has one. He should be helped by an increased emphasis on the running game and a solid defense. Previous rating: 25.5
5. Indianapolis Colts (25) Andrew Luck has been carrying this team since entering the league three seasons ago, but this year he has more weapons with the addition of RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson. Previous rating: 24.5
6. Dallas Cowboys (24.5) There are a lot of questions in Dallas. Can that offensive line elevate Darren McFadden or another running back to stardom as it did with DeMarco Murray? Can the defense overachieve again? Can Jerry Jones resist a camera? Previous rating: 25
7. Philadelphia Eagles (24) The bandwagon is filling up in Philadelphia, though Chip Kelly isn't without his detractors. It remains to be seen if shipping off LeSean McCoy and replacing him with Murray was the right move; same thing with the trade of Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. Previous rating: 23
8 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (23.5) The Ravens should be right back in the mix in the AFC South. Joe Flacco doesn't get the hype of other top quarterbacks but he should lead a potent offense even if it is Steve Smith's last season. Previous rating: 23
8 (tie). Miami Dolphins (23.5) The development of Ryan Tannehillcontinues and he has more weapons. The defense also should be better withNdamukong Suh clogging the middle. Previous rating: 23
10. Cincinnati Bengals (22.5) The Bengals look pretty much like the same team that keeps excelling in the regular season and then makes an early playoff exit. Their biggest challenge in getting back to the playoffs is being in the same division as Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Previous rating: 22.5
11 (tie). Kansas City Chiefs (22) The Chiefs probably need the Broncos to struggle to have a chance to end Denver's reign in the AFC West, but coach Andy Reid is putting together a solid team. Jeremy Maclin will try to help the receiving corps get in the end zone this season. Previous rating: 22
11 (tie). Detroit Lions (22) The defense lost Suh, but picked up Haloti Ngatafrom Baltimore. Matthew Stafford has shown more ability in pulling out close games. Previous rating: 21.5
13 (tie). Buffalo Bills (21.5) There's a difference of opinion here as well with the general public. A lot of people are optimistic about Rex Ryan's move to Buffalo, with its already stellar defense. But how will the offense do with Tyrod Taylor winning the starting QB job? Previous rating: 21.5
13 (tie). Houston Texans (21.5) Can J.J. Watt play quarterback? Brian Hoyer is the new gunslinger in town. He should be helped by a running game that is in good hands with Alfred Blue until Arian Foster returns. The defense should be great at times, but is that enough in today's NFL? Previous rating:21.5
13 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (21.5) The Steelers would be rated significantly higher, but they start the season with RB Le'Veon Bell serving a two-game suspension, WR Martavis Bryant out for four games with a suspension and CMaurkice Pouncey out for the first half of the season. If the offense ever gets to full strength, Ben Roethlisberger & Co. will be a force to be reckoned with.Previous rating: 22
13 (tie). New Orleans Saints (21.5) The Saints sent Jimmy Graham to Seattle, but they have improved in a lot of other areas with C Max Unger coming over in that deal, C.J. Spiller teaming with Mark Ingram in the backfield (once he returns from injury) and Brandon Browner and others added on defense.Previous rating: 21
13 (tie). Arizona Cardinals (21.5) Will the defense continue to thrive without defensive coordinator Todd Bowles? Will RB Andre Ellington's star continue to rise? Will Carson Palmer take advantage of a talented receiving corps? More important, can Palmer last the season without being injured?Previous rating: 22.5
18. St. Louis Rams (21) Everyone is waiting to see how good Todd Gurley will be. The other thing everyone is waiting to see is if the Rams made the right decision in trading Bradford for Foles. Jeff Fisher is great at pulling upsets, but hasn't gotten his team to perform consistently week after week. Previous rating: 21
19. Minnesota Vikings (20.5) With Adrian Peterson returning to the lineup and the continuing improvement of QB Teddy Bridgewater, a lot of people are high on the Vikings this year, especially since they looked good in the preseason (going 4-1, not that it really matters) without Peterson stepping on the field.Previous rating: 18.5
20 (tie). San Diego Chargers (20) The Chargers are staying in San Diego for now. The big question is if Melvin Gordon is the next great running back and can take some pressure off QB Philip Rivers. Previous rating: 20.5
20 (tie). Atlanta Falcons (20) New coach Dan Quinn (the former Seattle defensive coordinator) went right to work improving the defense. We know the offense should put up points if Matt Ryan's receivers can stay healthy. Previous rating: 20
22. New York Giants (19.5) Odell Beckham Jr. should be good for a bunch of circus catches, but he could use Victor Cruz to help defenses from teaming up on him. Does Tom Coughlin have one more Super Bowl run left in him? Previous rating: 20
23 (tie). Carolina Panthers (19) The Panthers are the defending NFC South champs, but they were only 7-8-1. It was a big blow to lose WR Kelvin Benjaminas he was Cam Newton's favorite target. Previous rating: 20
23 (tie). New York Jets (19) Revis and Antonio Cromartie return to New York to help new coach Todd Bowles build his defense. There still are some locker room issues in the aftermath of the Geno Smith incident, but the offense adds Brandon Marshall. Previous rating: 19
25. San Francisco 49ers (18) The 49ers have gone from one of the top-rated teams to below average in a short time. Gore and Michael Crabtree left via free agency and Patrick Willis and several other defenders retired. But the biggest loss might be head coach Jim Harbaugh. Previous rating: 19
26. Chicago Bears (17) It remains to be seen if the defense will improve, but the Bears still have a lot of weapons with Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery, though first-round pick Kevin White, expected to replace the departed Marshall, hasn't returned from shin surgery and the team is mum on if he'll play this season.Previous rating: 18
27. Cleveland Browns (16.5) The Browns started well last year and finished 7-9 but Hoyer is gone and Johnny Manziel is still riding the bench behind Josh McCown. Another fourth-place finish in the strong AFC North looks inevitable.Previous rating: 17
28 (tie). Oakland Raiders (16) Derek Carr looks in sync with rookie Amari Cooper, but will teams be able to take him away if other offensive players don't step up? The defense still has some holes. It's not good when your best player is 35 years old. Charles Woodson needs some help. Previous rating: 16
28 (tie). Washington Redskins (16) In one of the most high-profile QB battles, Kirk Cousins beat out Robert Griffin III, but the team still seems split over it and it could be a lingering issue (as well as Griffin's contract status). The defense is another issue. Previous rating: 16
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (15) One of these years we'll see the Jaguars make a marked improvement. Maybe not this year. Blake Bortles is coming along nicely, but it looks as if he'll have to wait until Week 4 to get his new weapon, TEJulius Thomas (though we'll see how Thomas' numbers compare with Bortles throwing him the ball instead of Peyton Manning). Previous rating: 15
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14.5) Jameis Winston comes in as the No. 1 draft pick and, while probably experiencing growing pains like other rookie QBs, he has the benefit of throwing to big targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.Previous rating: 14.5
32. Tennessee Titans (14) Marcus Mariota comes in as the No. 2 draft pick to try to revive the Tennessee franchise (and coach Ken Whisenhunt's career), but the Titans have a lot more needs to fill before they get competitive on a weekly basis. Previous rating: 14
Week 1 value plays
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Vegas consensus line: Jets -3Vegas Ranks: Jets -2 (19-16.5)
This play isn't as strong as when the line was NYJ minus-2 after the draft, but our panel's raw numbers have the Jets as 2.5 points better than the Browns and with home-field advantage, we're thinking this line should be well over a field goal (and it looks to be headed that way), so get New York minus-3 now if you can (if you agree with our power rankings).
The play: Jets -3.
Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers Vegas consensus line: Chargers -3Vegas Ranks: Lions -2 (22-20)
Our panel has the Lions as two points better than the Chargers, so even with the game in San Diego, the Chargers shouldn't be much more than pick 'em, yet the Lions are getting plus-3 at most books, though you might have to lay a little more juice.
The play: Lions +3.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers Vegas consensus line:Vikings -2.5 Vegas Ranks: Vikings -2.5 (20.5-18)
This is another repeat from our value plays after the draft, except we've flipped to the other side. Our power ratings do have the Vikings as 2.5 points better than the 49ers, but with home field, that should be closer to pick 'em.
The play: 49ers +2.5 (even more so if it gets to +3).
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*Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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Dave Tuley, ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions and have been continuously in the news all offseason thanks to Deflategate, but the Seattle Seahawks enter the 2015 season as the top-ranked team in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
The Seahawks came up 1 yard short of back-to-back titles and have kept more of their defense together than the Patriots, and that helped get the nod in the combined power ratings from our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers -- Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England and San Francisco are typically given a full field goal, while Denver and New Orleans are closer to 3.5. Seattle is given the biggest home-field advantage in the league (about four points). Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
If you had used our recommendations the last time we updated the NFL Vegas Rankings after the draft, you would have three solid bets at numbers that are no longer available: New York Jets minus-2 vs. Cleveland (the line is now NYJ minus-3), Miami minus-2.5 vs. Washington (the line is up to MIA minus-4) and Minnesota plus-4 vs. San Francisco (the Vikings are now a 2.5-point favorite). After the rankings, we'll list any potential plays we see with the current numbers.
Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the Thursday night betting preview and my "Tuley's Takes" column Friday.
NFL Vegas Rankings
1. Seattle Seahawks (Power rating: 27) The Seahawks keep rolling along and are poised for another deep run (and they're doubly tough if they earn home field for the NFC playoffs). They've kept most of their championship-caliber team intact, plus added tight end Jimmy Graham. Their power rating is only decreased until they show they can return to their lofty postseason form.Previous rating: 28
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2. New England Patriots (26.5) A lot of people (and pollsters) consider the Patriots back to full strength after Tom Brady's suspension was overturned, but we'll see if Bill Belichick can overcome the loss on defense of Darrelle Revis,Brandon Browner and Vince Wilfork. Previous rating: 26.5
3 (tie). Green Bay Packers (26) The Packers have some issues on defense, but they were mostly downgraded because of the season-ending injury to WRJordy Nelson. Previous rating: 27
3 (tie). Denver Broncos (26) Gary Kubiak replaces John Fox as head coach and we'll see if Peyton Manning has one. He should be helped by an increased emphasis on the running game and a solid defense. Previous rating: 25.5
5. Indianapolis Colts (25) Andrew Luck has been carrying this team since entering the league three seasons ago, but this year he has more weapons with the addition of RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson. Previous rating: 24.5
6. Dallas Cowboys (24.5) There are a lot of questions in Dallas. Can that offensive line elevate Darren McFadden or another running back to stardom as it did with DeMarco Murray? Can the defense overachieve again? Can Jerry Jones resist a camera? Previous rating: 25
7. Philadelphia Eagles (24) The bandwagon is filling up in Philadelphia, though Chip Kelly isn't without his detractors. It remains to be seen if shipping off LeSean McCoy and replacing him with Murray was the right move; same thing with the trade of Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. Previous rating: 23
8 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (23.5) The Ravens should be right back in the mix in the AFC South. Joe Flacco doesn't get the hype of other top quarterbacks but he should lead a potent offense even if it is Steve Smith's last season. Previous rating: 23
8 (tie). Miami Dolphins (23.5) The development of Ryan Tannehillcontinues and he has more weapons. The defense also should be better withNdamukong Suh clogging the middle. Previous rating: 23
10. Cincinnati Bengals (22.5) The Bengals look pretty much like the same team that keeps excelling in the regular season and then makes an early playoff exit. Their biggest challenge in getting back to the playoffs is being in the same division as Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Previous rating: 22.5
11 (tie). Kansas City Chiefs (22) The Chiefs probably need the Broncos to struggle to have a chance to end Denver's reign in the AFC West, but coach Andy Reid is putting together a solid team. Jeremy Maclin will try to help the receiving corps get in the end zone this season. Previous rating: 22
11 (tie). Detroit Lions (22) The defense lost Suh, but picked up Haloti Ngatafrom Baltimore. Matthew Stafford has shown more ability in pulling out close games. Previous rating: 21.5
13 (tie). Buffalo Bills (21.5) There's a difference of opinion here as well with the general public. A lot of people are optimistic about Rex Ryan's move to Buffalo, with its already stellar defense. But how will the offense do with Tyrod Taylor winning the starting QB job? Previous rating: 21.5
13 (tie). Houston Texans (21.5) Can J.J. Watt play quarterback? Brian Hoyer is the new gunslinger in town. He should be helped by a running game that is in good hands with Alfred Blue until Arian Foster returns. The defense should be great at times, but is that enough in today's NFL? Previous rating:21.5
13 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (21.5) The Steelers would be rated significantly higher, but they start the season with RB Le'Veon Bell serving a two-game suspension, WR Martavis Bryant out for four games with a suspension and CMaurkice Pouncey out for the first half of the season. If the offense ever gets to full strength, Ben Roethlisberger & Co. will be a force to be reckoned with.Previous rating: 22
13 (tie). New Orleans Saints (21.5) The Saints sent Jimmy Graham to Seattle, but they have improved in a lot of other areas with C Max Unger coming over in that deal, C.J. Spiller teaming with Mark Ingram in the backfield (once he returns from injury) and Brandon Browner and others added on defense.Previous rating: 21
13 (tie). Arizona Cardinals (21.5) Will the defense continue to thrive without defensive coordinator Todd Bowles? Will RB Andre Ellington's star continue to rise? Will Carson Palmer take advantage of a talented receiving corps? More important, can Palmer last the season without being injured?Previous rating: 22.5
18. St. Louis Rams (21) Everyone is waiting to see how good Todd Gurley will be. The other thing everyone is waiting to see is if the Rams made the right decision in trading Bradford for Foles. Jeff Fisher is great at pulling upsets, but hasn't gotten his team to perform consistently week after week. Previous rating: 21
19. Minnesota Vikings (20.5) With Adrian Peterson returning to the lineup and the continuing improvement of QB Teddy Bridgewater, a lot of people are high on the Vikings this year, especially since they looked good in the preseason (going 4-1, not that it really matters) without Peterson stepping on the field.Previous rating: 18.5
20 (tie). San Diego Chargers (20) The Chargers are staying in San Diego for now. The big question is if Melvin Gordon is the next great running back and can take some pressure off QB Philip Rivers. Previous rating: 20.5
20 (tie). Atlanta Falcons (20) New coach Dan Quinn (the former Seattle defensive coordinator) went right to work improving the defense. We know the offense should put up points if Matt Ryan's receivers can stay healthy. Previous rating: 20
22. New York Giants (19.5) Odell Beckham Jr. should be good for a bunch of circus catches, but he could use Victor Cruz to help defenses from teaming up on him. Does Tom Coughlin have one more Super Bowl run left in him? Previous rating: 20
23 (tie). Carolina Panthers (19) The Panthers are the defending NFC South champs, but they were only 7-8-1. It was a big blow to lose WR Kelvin Benjaminas he was Cam Newton's favorite target. Previous rating: 20
23 (tie). New York Jets (19) Revis and Antonio Cromartie return to New York to help new coach Todd Bowles build his defense. There still are some locker room issues in the aftermath of the Geno Smith incident, but the offense adds Brandon Marshall. Previous rating: 19
25. San Francisco 49ers (18) The 49ers have gone from one of the top-rated teams to below average in a short time. Gore and Michael Crabtree left via free agency and Patrick Willis and several other defenders retired. But the biggest loss might be head coach Jim Harbaugh. Previous rating: 19
26. Chicago Bears (17) It remains to be seen if the defense will improve, but the Bears still have a lot of weapons with Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery, though first-round pick Kevin White, expected to replace the departed Marshall, hasn't returned from shin surgery and the team is mum on if he'll play this season.Previous rating: 18
27. Cleveland Browns (16.5) The Browns started well last year and finished 7-9 but Hoyer is gone and Johnny Manziel is still riding the bench behind Josh McCown. Another fourth-place finish in the strong AFC North looks inevitable.Previous rating: 17
28 (tie). Oakland Raiders (16) Derek Carr looks in sync with rookie Amari Cooper, but will teams be able to take him away if other offensive players don't step up? The defense still has some holes. It's not good when your best player is 35 years old. Charles Woodson needs some help. Previous rating: 16
28 (tie). Washington Redskins (16) In one of the most high-profile QB battles, Kirk Cousins beat out Robert Griffin III, but the team still seems split over it and it could be a lingering issue (as well as Griffin's contract status). The defense is another issue. Previous rating: 16
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (15) One of these years we'll see the Jaguars make a marked improvement. Maybe not this year. Blake Bortles is coming along nicely, but it looks as if he'll have to wait until Week 4 to get his new weapon, TEJulius Thomas (though we'll see how Thomas' numbers compare with Bortles throwing him the ball instead of Peyton Manning). Previous rating: 15
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14.5) Jameis Winston comes in as the No. 1 draft pick and, while probably experiencing growing pains like other rookie QBs, he has the benefit of throwing to big targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.Previous rating: 14.5
32. Tennessee Titans (14) Marcus Mariota comes in as the No. 2 draft pick to try to revive the Tennessee franchise (and coach Ken Whisenhunt's career), but the Titans have a lot more needs to fill before they get competitive on a weekly basis. Previous rating: 14
Week 1 value plays
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Vegas consensus line: Jets -3Vegas Ranks: Jets -2 (19-16.5)
This play isn't as strong as when the line was NYJ minus-2 after the draft, but our panel's raw numbers have the Jets as 2.5 points better than the Browns and with home-field advantage, we're thinking this line should be well over a field goal (and it looks to be headed that way), so get New York minus-3 now if you can (if you agree with our power rankings).
The play: Jets -3.
Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers Vegas consensus line: Chargers -3Vegas Ranks: Lions -2 (22-20)
Our panel has the Lions as two points better than the Chargers, so even with the game in San Diego, the Chargers shouldn't be much more than pick 'em, yet the Lions are getting plus-3 at most books, though you might have to lay a little more juice.
The play: Lions +3.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers Vegas consensus line:Vikings -2.5 Vegas Ranks: Vikings -2.5 (20.5-18)
This is another repeat from our value plays after the draft, except we've flipped to the other side. Our power ratings do have the Vikings as 2.5 points better than the 49ers, but with home field, that should be closer to pick 'em.
The play: 49ers +2.5 (even more so if it gets to +3).
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">NFL Vegas Rankings
*Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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