[h=1]2015 pro football betting guide[/h]
- Dave Tuley
- Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
[h=2]Super Bowl 50 best bets[/h]Dave Tuley
Pittsburgh Steelers: After Super Bowl XLIX on Feb. 1, I jumped on the Pittsburgh Steelers as my best bet to win Super Bowl 50 at odds of 20-1. It worked well for me two years ago when I tabbed the Seattle Seahawks at 12-1 (not so well last year with the Saints). Now, I've stuck to my guns and still like the Steelers to win it all -- and that's my official pick -- but I can't say it's the best bet on the board anymore.
The Steelers are 20-1, but they'll start the season without star running backLe'Veon Bell for the first two games (we knew that was coming). But we didn't know the Steelers would also be without No. 2 wide receiverMartavis Bryant for four games and center Maurkice Pouncey for the first half of the season. When everyone is back the Steelers' offense will be great, but I'm just not as confident that they'll secure a first-round bye in the AFC, so they're not as good of a value at the current price considering what we know now.
Here are a few teams that I believe are overlays if you're making last-minute Super Bowl future bets before the season starts:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
New Orleans Saints (30-1): They let me down last year, but one thing I've learned from years of betting is to be ahead of the curve in recognizing teams before they peak (something I learned from my years playing the ponies). It's better to be early than late, so maybe last year's disappointment will set up a big run by the Saints. TE Jimmy Graham is gone, but the offensive line is improved with Max Unger (acquired from Seattle in the Graham trade) and so is the defense. And assuming C.J. Spiller can return from knee surgery, I believe he'll be a major weapon for Drew Brees out of the backfield. The Saints also have the softest division in the league, and if they return to dominance, a first-round bye is within reach.
Detroit Lions (30-1): The Lions were arguably one controversial play away from beating Dallas in the playoffs last year, and the Cowboys nearly beat the Packers, who nearly beat the Seahawks, who nearly beat the Patriots. Granted, that's a lot of close calls to overcome, but it shows the Lions really aren't that far away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The first hurdle is getting past the Packers, but Matthew Stafford & Co. are getting better at winning close games, and they could be worth a flier.
New England Patriots (8-1): Before Tom Brady's suspension was overturned, I was telling everyone who would listen that the Pats were the best value on the future-book board. You could have gotten between 10-1 and 12-1 on the defending champs with Brady missing the first four games, and it was likely the Pats would still have been good enough to get at least a split and start 2-2 as they did last year. Double-digit odds are gone, but it still looks like a fair price at 8-1, especially considering New England was vying for favoritism around 5-1 before the initial suspension was announced.
Erin Rynning
Denver Broncos (9-1): The Broncos are my top-rated AFC team heading into the season, making the 9-1 price a worthy bet. Look for Denver's defense to be much-improved in 2015; it ranked an impressive third in the NFL last season in yards allowed per game, but couldn't translate this on the scoreboard. The Broncos ranked 16th in points allowed, and they'll improve upon this mark in 2015. The addition of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is a huge plus. The addition of head coach Gary Kubiak and his zone-blocking run offense will also pay dividends come playoff time. A better defense and run game and a healthyPeyton Manning will be a tough out in the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals (40-1): Cincinnati is worth a look at this sweet price. The Bengals own the talent on both sides of the football to be a player in the playoffs. Yes, they're winless in the last four years in the playoffs, but there's something to be said about reaching the playoffs four straight years. The clock is ticking on this roster with its numerous potential free agents, but with the authority to control the line of scrimmage on offense and defense, the Bengals can play the role of a deep sleeper.
New Orleans Saints (30-1): The Seahawks own the first position in my NFL ratings, but at 9-2 odds I'll pass. The Saints are an intriguing team in 2015, with a tandem of Brees at QB and coach Sean Payton -- and of course, they've won the big game in their time together. The Saints must survive the early portion of a tough schedule, but the back end of their schedule is extremely soft. They could go on a run and remain fresh for a deep playoff run. The goal for the Saints is to play a much more physical style on both sides of the line of scrimmage, which could pay dividends in January.
[h=2]Best season win total bets[/h]Tuley
Detroit Lions (8.5, over +130): I really like this wager, especially as we get a nice plus-money price with the under favored. I believe the loss of Ndamukong Suh is being overrated and the defense, which carried this team at times, will be just fine.
New Orleans Saints (9, over -140): The Saints, in my opinion, have the biggest upside in the NFC South (see my Super Bowl pick) and should easily get over .500 and back to battling for home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals (8.5, over +120): Assuming Carson Palmerstays healthy the whole season -- and I can't blame people who say that's a long shot -- the defense should be improved to go along with a solid offense. I'm not sure the Cards can start 9-1 again or challenge Seattle in the NFC West, but they should be able to get to at least nine wins overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5, over -130): They're missing some players early in the season as noted above, but they shouldn't have any problem getting to at least nine wins.
Cincinnati Bengals (8.5, over EVEN): The Bengals can keep choking in the playoffs as long as they keep cashing overs in their season win totals. The Steelers, Bengals and Ravens should battle it out again for the AFC North title and wild-card berths.
Minnesota Vikings (8, under +130): I liked the under here when it opened at 6.5, as I'm not so sure the Vikings can take another leap forward, and I also don't think Teddy Bridgewater is immune from a sophomore jinx. The Vikings also have to play the Packers and Lions twice, and I'm not sure a split with either team is realistic.
Carolina Panthers (8.5, under -170): The under is priced very high, so I would shop for under 8. I don't see how the Panthers will be better than the 7-8-1 record that won the NFC South by default last season, especially without their top weapon, Kelvin Benjamin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6, under +130): When a team gets the No. 1 pick, it usually has a lot of problems, so even if Jameis Winston lives up to expectations, he'll still find it hard to rack up victories. He does play in a weak division, so it's nice to get the added insurance of the number being 6 in case they somehow go 6-10.
Tennessee Titans (5.5, under +175): Similar reasons here. When the over/unders first came out, I liked the Titans to stay under 5 -- because they still have a lot more holes to fill on their roster even if Marcus Mariota is the real deal -- so I love it even more at under 5.5 at a nice, juicy price.
Cleveland Browns (6.5, under -110): Yes, they won seven games last year, but that was while facing non-divisional teams from the NFC South and AFC South. They get the NFC West and AFC West this year, and after Week 3, it's hard to see a game where they'll be favored. Sure, they'll win a few games because it's the NFL, but another 7-9 season looks like a long shot to me.
Rynning
Cincinnati Bengals (8.5, over EVEN): It's crucial when handicapping season over/under wins to take stock in each division overall. With the AFC North, I expect a downturn in play from Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Hence, with a bet on the Bengals over, I'm also making small bets against the three aforementioned teams. The Bengals' offense can take a step forward this season with pass-catching weapons A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert all healthy from an injury-ravaged 2014. The defense also can move forward; it ranked just 22nd in the NFL last year in yards per game. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins is the straw that stirs the drink, and I like him to bounce back from a disappointing 2014.
New York Giants (8, under -170): The Giants continue to trend in the wrong direction. Asking this team to win nine games seems daunting given a roster with evaporating talent. In elementary football terms, the Giants can't run or stop the run, and pressuring the quarterback is a distant memory. Again, with these weaknesses, winning more games than you lose is an uphill battle. Finally, the Eagles and Cowboys look like tough matchups for the Giants, and I actually expect Washington to show improvement.
[h=2]Bet on teams[/h]Tuley
Arizona Cardinals: Arizona was a league-best 11-5 ATS last season, and while it's hard to predict a repeat of that, it helps when you consider that a lot of people are expecting them to come back to earth this season. That's why the Cardinals are only 2.5-point home favorites in the opener against New Orleans. (I also like the Saints in the futures, but I'm not sure they'll have a winning ATS record, especially since they'll probably be laying lot of big points at home.)
New York Jets: The defense will keep the Jets in most games, so they'll often be a live underdog. Look at how they beat Pittsburgh last year and covered in both losses to New England. The problem has been consistency against lesser opponents, but a few embarrassing losses (as long as we're not on them) mixed in helps maintain value in the marquee games. (Note: The Rams could easily be added for the same reasons of looking awful one week and then being an unlikely live underdog against a good team the next.)
Kansas City Chiefs: Coach Andy Reid has had this team ready out of the blocks in each of his first two years. They own a 13-5 combined mark ATS in their first nine games over the last two seasons. Last year, everyone was down on the Chiefs, and after they stumbled in their first game, they went on a solid run. This season, they'll be on much more solid footing. Jamaal Charles is healthy and Jeremy Maclin's presence will make the offense more efficient. On defense, the return of Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry gives a boost to an already talented unit. Look for the Chiefs to hit the ground running again.
[h=2]Bet against teams[/h]Tuley
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</article>Minnesota Vikings: As stated before, I'm not as high on the Vikings as a lot of other handicappers are, and I'll be fading them early and often, starting with the opener at San Francisco. Yes, I know the 49ers have fallen on hard times, but this line opened at San Francisco minus-4, and now the Vikings are favored by 2.5 and likely to go to 3. A 7-point swing, really?
Carolina Panthers: It'll be interesting to see who Cam Newton's go-to guy will be with Benjamin out for the season. Greg Olsen? I don't see the Panthers scoring enough to cover a lot of spreads. I just don't know if I'm willing to take the Jaguars plus-3.5 against them in the opener.
Rynning
Baltimore Ravens: No question, this is a dangerous franchise to take a stand against. However, I'm willing to take that stand as the 2015 kickoff approaches. I expect this offense to take a major step backward after scoring a franchise record in points last year. Too many key contributors are gone from last season, including Kubiak, Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. Joe Flacco is a nice quarterback, but I'm doubtful he can carry this offense on his shoulders. Finally, the offensive line hasn't been healthy all training camp, and time will be needed for the strength of this unit to come together. Their schedule is rocky from the start, with five of their first seven games on the road.
