How to use contrarian betting strategy in NFL Week 1
David Solar
ESPN INSIDER
Always fade the public. It's Sports Insights' contrarian, yet highly profitable betting strategy. Whenever the public zigs, we zag.
In the sports betting marketplace, there are two types of bettors: "sharps" and "squares." Typically sharps are wise guys or betting syndicates who spread five- to six-figure bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected, sharps are a smaller group who move lines across the market.
Most bettors can be classified as squares: recreational weekend warriors who place their wagers based on instinct, rather than data and analysis. These individuals overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which has historically created value on underdogs and unders.
Squares consistently overreact to recent results, such as teams coming off a blowout or on a prolonged streak. Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate the behavior of these bettors and shade their opening lines to force square bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. These shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors who go against the grain and take the underdog.
Every week in this column, we will examine some of the top historical betting trends, identify sharp money indicators and inform our readers about how to capitalize on public perception. We'll be your personal Jiminy Cricket, guiding bettors through the ins and outs of NFL betting.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Last season our system picks combined to post a 31-25 (55.35 percent) against the spread (ATS) record, including a 26-21 ATS record during the regular season. This year we hope to continue those winning ways, and bring you inside the workings of the marketplace.
Our database includes valuable historical information such as NFL line data, public betting percentages, team and player stats, streaks, ATS stats, weather information and more. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, users can apply hundreds of different filters to find historically profitable trends and quickly develop winning betting systems.
In our first analysis for the new season, we wanted to use this data to examine how bettors would overreact to the past season's results when placing their Week 1 bets. Although teams have made major moves from player personnel to coaching and strategy, bettors still overvalue high-performing teams -- specifically teams who made the playoffs in the previous season.
Since 2005, bettors would have gone 68-50 (57.6 percent) ATS by simply betting against every playoff team during Week 1. When their opponent missed the playoffs in the previous season, that record improves to 43-25 (63.2 percent) ATS.
While these results already provided a substantial edge, there was one more criterion to consider. Historically, underdogs have performed especially well in divisional matchups. The familiarity between teams levels the playing field and provides additional value on the team getting points.
This addition reduced our sample size substantially, but caused the return on investment (ROI) to nearly double. The table below summarizes the results of our analysis. (Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example below, a $100 bettor would have won $1,346 -- $100 x 13.46 units -- following the system.)
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</tbody></aside>Why does this work?
As we mentioned earlier, square bettors are prone to overreacting and will typically place their bets based purely on instincts. Entering the first week of a new season, bettors are limited in their ability to assess offseason transactions so they use last season's results as their guide.
Week 1 is especially unique because lines open so early that bettors have months to pound teams they know will be good, while playing against bad teams. This influx of public money will often times create artificially inflated lines. Case in point, two of our system fits have seen the line move at least a half-point based on lopsided public betting. It's particularly important because both of these occurrences involve key numbers.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Week 1 system matches
St. Louis Rams (+4) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are the early favorite to win Super Bowl 50, while oddsmakers anticipate that the Rams will fail to post a winning record for the 12th consecutive season. This level of discrepancy between each team's expectations helps to explain why the Seahawks are currently receiving 76 percent of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. This one-sided public betting has moved the Rams from plus-3.5 to plus-4.
This game exemplifies the value of buying on bad news and selling on good, while fitting our betting against the public philosophy. The Rams' defense is highly underrated and sportsbooks are clearly expecting a low-scoring affair because the over/under is currently 41.
Historically, underdogs have offered value in games with low totals, so we'll happily take the Rams plus-4 in this matchup.
Chicago Bears (+7) at Green Bay Packers
Last season these divisional foes squared off twice, with the Packers winning by 21 points in the first matchup and 41 in the second. The Bears ultimately limped to a 5-11 record (their first losing season since 2009) and responded by firing head coach Marc Trestman and replacing him with John Fox.
After posting his worst statistics since his rookie season, the Bears also traded Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets for draft picks.
With so many organizational changes, the Packers opened as 4-point favorites and have received 85 percent of spread bets thus far -- the largest figure for any Week 1 game. This lopsided public betting has pushed Green Bay from minus-4 to minus-7 across the sports betting marketplace.
The Bears are not only a current game match for this system, but also for our popular 80/20 system and a previously mentioned system focusing on contrarian underdogs coming off a season with six wins or fewer. We're happy to take this home underdog at the second most significant key number.
New York Giants (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
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</article>In the Sunday night game, the Giants opened as 5.5-point road underdogs against the Cowboys. Public betting has been evenly split with 51 percent of bettors favoring New York. Despite this balanced action, the Giants line has moved from plus-5.5 to plus-6.5.
Although this game doesn't fit the same contrarian criteria as our two aforementioned games, there is additional value on New York. Road underdogs of at least 3.5 points who fit our Week 1 system have been undefeated (6-0 ATS, +5.64 units) over the past decade. Admittedly this is a very small sample size, but it falls in line with previously observed betting trends.
Eli Manning has been the eighth-most profitable quarterback in our database, so we'll gladly take the Giants plus-6 in this prime-time affair.
David Solar
ESPN INSIDER
Always fade the public. It's Sports Insights' contrarian, yet highly profitable betting strategy. Whenever the public zigs, we zag.
In the sports betting marketplace, there are two types of bettors: "sharps" and "squares." Typically sharps are wise guys or betting syndicates who spread five- to six-figure bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected, sharps are a smaller group who move lines across the market.
Most bettors can be classified as squares: recreational weekend warriors who place their wagers based on instinct, rather than data and analysis. These individuals overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which has historically created value on underdogs and unders.
Squares consistently overreact to recent results, such as teams coming off a blowout or on a prolonged streak. Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate the behavior of these bettors and shade their opening lines to force square bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. These shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors who go against the grain and take the underdog.
Every week in this column, we will examine some of the top historical betting trends, identify sharp money indicators and inform our readers about how to capitalize on public perception. We'll be your personal Jiminy Cricket, guiding bettors through the ins and outs of NFL betting.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Last season our system picks combined to post a 31-25 (55.35 percent) against the spread (ATS) record, including a 26-21 ATS record during the regular season. This year we hope to continue those winning ways, and bring you inside the workings of the marketplace.
Our database includes valuable historical information such as NFL line data, public betting percentages, team and player stats, streaks, ATS stats, weather information and more. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, users can apply hundreds of different filters to find historically profitable trends and quickly develop winning betting systems.
In our first analysis for the new season, we wanted to use this data to examine how bettors would overreact to the past season's results when placing their Week 1 bets. Although teams have made major moves from player personnel to coaching and strategy, bettors still overvalue high-performing teams -- specifically teams who made the playoffs in the previous season.
Since 2005, bettors would have gone 68-50 (57.6 percent) ATS by simply betting against every playoff team during Week 1. When their opponent missed the playoffs in the previous season, that record improves to 43-25 (63.2 percent) ATS.
While these results already provided a substantial edge, there was one more criterion to consider. Historically, underdogs have performed especially well in divisional matchups. The familiarity between teams levels the playing field and provides additional value on the team getting points.
This addition reduced our sample size substantially, but caused the return on investment (ROI) to nearly double. The table below summarizes the results of our analysis. (Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example below, a $100 bettor would have won $1,346 -- $100 x 13.46 units -- following the system.)
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent made playoffs | 68-50 (57.6%) | +13.97 | +11.8% |
| Team missed playoffs, opponent made | 42-25 (63.2%) | +15.02 | +22.1% |
| Team missed, opponent made, divisional game | 21-6 (77.8%) | +13.46 | +49.8% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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As we mentioned earlier, square bettors are prone to overreacting and will typically place their bets based purely on instincts. Entering the first week of a new season, bettors are limited in their ability to assess offseason transactions so they use last season's results as their guide.
Week 1 is especially unique because lines open so early that bettors have months to pound teams they know will be good, while playing against bad teams. This influx of public money will often times create artificially inflated lines. Case in point, two of our system fits have seen the line move at least a half-point based on lopsided public betting. It's particularly important because both of these occurrences involve key numbers.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Week 1 system matches
St. Louis Rams (+4) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are the early favorite to win Super Bowl 50, while oddsmakers anticipate that the Rams will fail to post a winning record for the 12th consecutive season. This level of discrepancy between each team's expectations helps to explain why the Seahawks are currently receiving 76 percent of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. This one-sided public betting has moved the Rams from plus-3.5 to plus-4.
This game exemplifies the value of buying on bad news and selling on good, while fitting our betting against the public philosophy. The Rams' defense is highly underrated and sportsbooks are clearly expecting a low-scoring affair because the over/under is currently 41.
Historically, underdogs have offered value in games with low totals, so we'll happily take the Rams plus-4 in this matchup.
Chicago Bears (+7) at Green Bay Packers
Last season these divisional foes squared off twice, with the Packers winning by 21 points in the first matchup and 41 in the second. The Bears ultimately limped to a 5-11 record (their first losing season since 2009) and responded by firing head coach Marc Trestman and replacing him with John Fox.
After posting his worst statistics since his rookie season, the Bears also traded Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets for draft picks.
With so many organizational changes, the Packers opened as 4-point favorites and have received 85 percent of spread bets thus far -- the largest figure for any Week 1 game. This lopsided public betting has pushed Green Bay from minus-4 to minus-7 across the sports betting marketplace.
The Bears are not only a current game match for this system, but also for our popular 80/20 system and a previously mentioned system focusing on contrarian underdogs coming off a season with six wins or fewer. We're happy to take this home underdog at the second most significant key number.
New York Giants (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
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</article>In the Sunday night game, the Giants opened as 5.5-point road underdogs against the Cowboys. Public betting has been evenly split with 51 percent of bettors favoring New York. Despite this balanced action, the Giants line has moved from plus-5.5 to plus-6.5.
Although this game doesn't fit the same contrarian criteria as our two aforementioned games, there is additional value on New York. Road underdogs of at least 3.5 points who fit our Week 1 system have been undefeated (6-0 ATS, +5.64 units) over the past decade. Admittedly this is a very small sample size, but it falls in line with previously observed betting trends.
Eli Manning has been the eighth-most profitable quarterback in our database, so we'll gladly take the Giants plus-6 in this prime-time affair.
