How To Bet Pittsburgh/New England

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]How to bet Pittsburgh-New England[/h]
NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER

The NFL season has finally arrived. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game, along with line movement from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate SuperBook. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Opened New England -6; now New England -7
Total: Opened 53; now 51.5

Jay Kornegay says: Currently, we're at 68 percent of the tickets on the Patriots. We expect New England support to rise and push this line up to at least minus-7 (-120). There's a chance it could go up to minus-7.5. The line movement will be based on the sophisticated money. Will they bite at plus-7 or will it take plus-7.5 for them to take Pittsburgh?

[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says: When this game was announced, I remember thinking<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">"hopefully I can get plus-7 with Pittsburgh." The Steelers were my value pick to win the Super Bowl at 20-1 and while I thought it was a tough break to draw the defending Super Bowl champs in the opener, I felt Pittsburgh's offense could match up with the Patriots and cover as 7-point underdogs and possibly pull an outright upset. The line opened Patriots minus-6 and I was hopeful it would get to 7, but then Tom Brady got suspended and the line dropped below a field goal. It then looked like a lucky break for the Steelers to get to face the Pats without Brady. But as we all know, Brady's suspension was overturned and now the Patriots are back to the 7-point favorite that I was initially hoping for.

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Everyone now picking the Patriots to blow out the Steelers is pointing out that RB Le'Veon Bell and No. 2 WRMartavis Bryant are suspended and CMaurkice Pouncey is injured. Oh, and the Pittsburgh defense is closer to a lace curtain than an iron curtain. So, yes, the Steelers aren't at full strength, but even with Brady back, the Patriots aren't without their problems. The defense has lost Vince Wilfork,Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and I believe Ben Roethlisberger will still have a big game, spreading the ball around to the rest of his weapons. Bryant is an emerging star, but he's no Antonio Brown and can be replaced in the short-term while DeAngelo Williams is a capable replacement for Bell.
In what should be a shootout (the Patriots won 55-31 the last time these teams met in 2013), the Steelers will get their points and I believe the defense will be better than people are expecting. The key will be in getting a pass rush -- perhaps from Jarvis Jones or James Harrison -- to pressure Brady into making some mistakes. Brady and Co. broke slow from the gate last year (losing to Miami in the opener and starting 2-2 before turning their season around) and I'm counting on the same thing Thursday night. The Steelers are good enough to take advantage of it.
ATS pick: Pittsburgh +7

Erin Rynning says: I expect a heavy downward turn from the Steelers in 2015 after a stellar 11-5 2014. Of course, the offense last season set many franchise marks, however it's difficult for many facets to flow easily two seasons in a row in the NFL. Tonight, they'll be greatly hampered by the losses of center Maurkice Pouncey, Martavis Bryant and of course the remarkable Le'Veon Bell. Note the Steelers played one of the softest schedules last season, and the quarterbacks they opposed. That changes in a hurry tonight matched up against the Patriots and Tom Brady.
After a difficult campaign defensively, this unit will be expected to struggle again tonight. The Patriots, however, feature their own questions entering 2015 -- particularly their secondary after losing their top three cornerbacks from last season. That's not a positive sign when opposing their own opposing stalwart quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. I'll take a clear pass on the side and lean over the total with the Steelers' offensive personnel issuing a red flag for a best bet.
ATS pick: Over 51.5

[h=2]Proposition Bets[/h]First score of the game will be (touchdown -185, any other score +165)
John Parolin says: Starting with last year's results, there's a pretty decided split in the trend of each team. The Steelers scored or allowed touchdowns first in six of the 16 games last year, while the Patriots scored or allowed touchdowns first in 11 of the 16 games. The combined 17 touchdowns and 15 "others" (all field goals) in the 32 games last year seems to favor "any other score" at plus-165. But this isn't Week 4 against the Buccaneers (with all due respect to Tampa Bay). This is a season opener fueled by a little more emotion and a LOT more offensive firepower than the average NFL game. But digging a little deeper only reinforces the point. Since 2001, 51 percent of all Week 1 games opened with a touchdown, compared to 49 percent with a field goal. It doesn't take long for the first heart vs. head bet of the season, and if the money line was closer to minus-110 each "touchdown" is probably the play. But at minus-185 and plus-165? The numbers just don't back that up.
The pick: Any other score (plus-165)

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</article>Will Rob Gronkowski score a TD? (Yes minus-160, No +140)Rob Gronkowski caught touchdown passes in 10 of his 15 games last year (he sat Week 17 to rest for the playoffs), slightly better than the minus-160 money line. But throw in Gronk spikes in all three playoff games, and his 13 games with a TD out of 18 played figure (72 percent) looks even better. Examining the Steelers defense from last year doesn't offer a compelling reason to change your mind -- Pittsburgh allowed a touchdown catch by a tight end in 10 of 16 games last year. Since 2010, Gronkowski has been Brady's preeminent red-zone threat. The only player on the roster with half as many red-zone targets since 2010 as Gronkowski is Julian Edelman. Gronk received 21 percent of the team's total red-zone targets in the past five years, 20th in the NFL. If that doesn't sound impressive, remember Gronkowski only played in 65 games in that span -- he missed 15 games entirely (almost a full season!) and it's reasonable to assume he played at varying degrees of health in those other 65. As for Thursday? It's only Week 1 -- and Gronk's been resting all preseason.
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The pick: Yes (-160)
 

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