[h=1]Football Outsiders: Would Ohio State go unbeaten in the SEC or Pac-12?[/h]Brian Fremeau, ESPN Insider
Ohio State earned every first-place vote in the AP top 25 poll and stands atop the rankings of pretty much every human and computer power-rating system.
And why not?
In the season opener against Virginia Tech, the defending national champion racked up 10 plays that gained at least 20 yards and allowed only three such plays. Expect even more of that kind of lopsided production throughout the season. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Ohio State is expected to have at least a 91 percent likelihood of victory against its next nine opponents, and at least a 79 percent likelihood of victory against the remaining two teams on its regular-season schedule.
But how would the Buckeyes do in the other Power 5 conferences? Well, they wouldn't be as dominant, that's for sure.
We ran a simulation that swapped the Buckeyes' schedule with those of the top teams in each of the other major conferences and found that all of them would be more challenging to run the table against than what the Big Ten has in store.
According to our methodology, Ohio State currently projects to win an average of 11.6 regular-season games in the Big Ten. How many wins would the Buckeyes get if they didn't play in the Big Ten?
Spoiler alert: Big Ten fans may not enjoy what the data shows.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the SEC[/h]Alabama's schedule would give Ohio State 1.3 extra losses
Georgia's schedule would give Ohio State 1.0 extra losses
In the SEC, instead of facing 10 opponents ranked outside the top 30, against Alabama's SEC West gauntlet Ohio State would have to play eight opponents ranked inside the top 30, and five such opponents against Georgia's SEC East schedule. Instead of a 49 percent chance to run the table, Ohio State's likelihood of an undefeated season would drop to 14 percent. Even the nonconference games would be tougher. The Buckeyes dodge Wisconsin in the regular season this year, but Alabama dispatched the Badgers on Saturday night. Georgia faces a top-15 opponent, Georgia Tech, at the end of the year, a team projected to stand ahead of ACC Coastal division mate Virginia Tech.
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the Pac-12[/h]Oregon's schedule would give Ohio State 0.8 extra losses
USC's schedule would give Ohio State 1.2 extra losses
Both the Ducks and Buckeyes face top-10 opponent Michigan State this year, but Oregon has to play the Spartans in East Lansing while Ohio State gets them in Columbus. The Ducks don't have too many other major obstacles, but the Pac-12 as a whole ranks a step ahead of the Big Ten, so 90 percent win likelihoods for the Buckeyes today may only be 80-85 percent win likelihoods if the schedules swapped. USC's schedule is even more challenging, with six top-30 opponents on the slate according to our current projections, the second-toughest non-SEC schedule in the nation.
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the Big 12[/h]Baylor's schedule would give Ohio State 0.5 extra losses
TCU's schedule would give Ohio State 0.6 extra losses
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Big 12 doesn't play a conference championship game at the end of the year, and Ohio State will have an additional game at that point that would likely make this schedule swap a wash. But comparing regular-season schedules only, the Big 12 presumptive favorites have a tougher path than Ohio State. There are only four top-30 opponents in each league, according to our current ratings, and the Big 12 is a round-robin format so both TCU and Baylor must play each of the other three. Ohio State plays only one of the other three top-30 opponents on its league schedule because two are in the opposite division.
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the ACC[/h]Florida State's schedule would give Ohio State 0.3 extra losses
Clemson's schedule would give Ohio State 0.6 extra losses
Of the other Power 5 conferences, only the ACC is comparatively equivalent to the Big Ten in terms of its mix of strong, average and weak teams. Like the Buckeyes, the Seminoles face only two top-30 opponents over the course of the season, but unlike Ohio State both opponents are on the road. Clemson faces only two top-30 opponents in the ACC but adds two others out of conference -- South Carolina and Notre Dame. If the Buckeyes had either Clemson's or Florida State's ACC schedule, they would be a strong favorite in every game, but either schedule would be slightly more difficult than the Buckeyes' slate. Against FSU's schedule, the Buckeyes would have a 44 percent likelihood of going undefeated, and a 33 percent likelihood against Clemson's schedule.
Ohio State earned every first-place vote in the AP top 25 poll and stands atop the rankings of pretty much every human and computer power-rating system.
And why not?
In the season opener against Virginia Tech, the defending national champion racked up 10 plays that gained at least 20 yards and allowed only three such plays. Expect even more of that kind of lopsided production throughout the season. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Ohio State is expected to have at least a 91 percent likelihood of victory against its next nine opponents, and at least a 79 percent likelihood of victory against the remaining two teams on its regular-season schedule.
But how would the Buckeyes do in the other Power 5 conferences? Well, they wouldn't be as dominant, that's for sure.
We ran a simulation that swapped the Buckeyes' schedule with those of the top teams in each of the other major conferences and found that all of them would be more challenging to run the table against than what the Big Ten has in store.
According to our methodology, Ohio State currently projects to win an average of 11.6 regular-season games in the Big Ten. How many wins would the Buckeyes get if they didn't play in the Big Ten?
Spoiler alert: Big Ten fans may not enjoy what the data shows.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the SEC[/h]Alabama's schedule would give Ohio State 1.3 extra losses
Georgia's schedule would give Ohio State 1.0 extra losses
In the SEC, instead of facing 10 opponents ranked outside the top 30, against Alabama's SEC West gauntlet Ohio State would have to play eight opponents ranked inside the top 30, and five such opponents against Georgia's SEC East schedule. Instead of a 49 percent chance to run the table, Ohio State's likelihood of an undefeated season would drop to 14 percent. Even the nonconference games would be tougher. The Buckeyes dodge Wisconsin in the regular season this year, but Alabama dispatched the Badgers on Saturday night. Georgia faces a top-15 opponent, Georgia Tech, at the end of the year, a team projected to stand ahead of ACC Coastal division mate Virginia Tech.
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the Pac-12[/h]Oregon's schedule would give Ohio State 0.8 extra losses
USC's schedule would give Ohio State 1.2 extra losses
Both the Ducks and Buckeyes face top-10 opponent Michigan State this year, but Oregon has to play the Spartans in East Lansing while Ohio State gets them in Columbus. The Ducks don't have too many other major obstacles, but the Pac-12 as a whole ranks a step ahead of the Big Ten, so 90 percent win likelihoods for the Buckeyes today may only be 80-85 percent win likelihoods if the schedules swapped. USC's schedule is even more challenging, with six top-30 opponents on the slate according to our current projections, the second-toughest non-SEC schedule in the nation.
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the Big 12[/h]Baylor's schedule would give Ohio State 0.5 extra losses
TCU's schedule would give Ohio State 0.6 extra losses
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Big 12 doesn't play a conference championship game at the end of the year, and Ohio State will have an additional game at that point that would likely make this schedule swap a wash. But comparing regular-season schedules only, the Big 12 presumptive favorites have a tougher path than Ohio State. There are only four top-30 opponents in each league, according to our current ratings, and the Big 12 is a round-robin format so both TCU and Baylor must play each of the other three. Ohio State plays only one of the other three top-30 opponents on its league schedule because two are in the opposite division.
[h=2]If Ohio State played in the ACC[/h]Florida State's schedule would give Ohio State 0.3 extra losses
Clemson's schedule would give Ohio State 0.6 extra losses
Of the other Power 5 conferences, only the ACC is comparatively equivalent to the Big Ten in terms of its mix of strong, average and weak teams. Like the Buckeyes, the Seminoles face only two top-30 opponents over the course of the season, but unlike Ohio State both opponents are on the road. Clemson faces only two top-30 opponents in the ACC but adds two others out of conference -- South Carolina and Notre Dame. If the Buckeyes had either Clemson's or Florida State's ACC schedule, they would be a strong favorite in every game, but either schedule would be slightly more difficult than the Buckeyes' slate. Against FSU's schedule, the Buckeyes would have a 44 percent likelihood of going undefeated, and a 33 percent likelihood against Clemson's schedule.
