[h=1]Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 3[/h]ESPN INSIDER
Oklahoma and Michigan State won thrillers in the two biggest national games despite some ugly lapses; Arkansas suffered an embarrassing home loss while Auburn narrowly avoided a more embarrassing one; and Notre Dame, Utah and UNLV were the latest teams to lose starting quarterbacks to injury.
Ole Miss scored 70 points for the second straight week, while Boston College held Howard to 11 total yards. BYU won its second straight game on a desperation heave, joining Minnesota and Washington State as dramatic victors in Week 2. And Penn State didn't give up a single sack a week after allowing 10 to Temple.
Read on for more on the Razorbacks, Sooners and Gophers, as well as other Week 2 takeaways, plus a look ahead at what the early numbers tell us about the Week 3 slate.
Note: All lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday afternoon, except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways from Week 2[/h]
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner threw for 233 yards on a career-high 45 attempts in an overtime win in Fort Collins, Colorado, including a 38-yard touchdown to tight end Drew Wolitarsky, and a go-ahead 22-yard score toKJ Maye with under a minute remaining. Critics point to<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> the Gophers' inability to throw the ball effectively, but remember that this team is coming off just its second back-to-back eight-win seasons since the Murray Warmath era, yet has not averaged even 170 passing yards in any of Jerry Kill's first four seasons.</offer>
In other words, like Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, Air Force and others, Minnesota does not depend on even average passing numbers for success. It's built to win without them, and early indications are that this offense will be just fine without tight end Maxx Williams and running back David Cobb, last year's two main weapons.
Minnesota didn't get 300 total yards from any wideout last year, and threw just four total touchdown passes to wide receivers in 2014. It remains to be seen if another wide receiver will emerge from what coaches continue to insist is the deepest and most talented group yet, but Maye has upped his game and appears an able replacement for Williams as the go-to guy in the passing game.
Leidner, while still pedestrian, is an improved thrower, and Wolitarsky has become a reliable target at tight end. Rodney Smith's emergence in the running game has been the best news of all. Further, the Gophers have played the first two games with an injury-wracked, reshuffled offensive line. They'll be even better when stability returns to the front. We still like this team to win an improved Big Ten West.
Oklahoma Sooners
The comeback in Neyland Stadium sure looked like a championship moment. This team had everything it needed on the field already, and now it has the belief it can do anything. The Sooners stand at co-No. 1 in our power ratings along with Michigan State and Ohio State.
Akron Zips
Akron hasn't gotten the offensive mastermind it thought it was getting in Terry Bowden. The offense has averaged just 380 yards and 23 points in Bowden's first three years, of which the first (2012) was by far the best. This year, a senior three-year starting quarterback hasn't been able to hold down the starting job, and the quarterbacks have combined for 13 completions in 48 attempts. Through two games, Akron boasts 10 points, 18 first downs and 336 total yards, to go with the 27 percent completion rate.
The Zips have been a popular dark horse pick in the MAC in each of the past two years, but it's evident that this offense has not made sufficient progress in Year 4 under Bowden and that the two poor showings to open 2015 are more than the product of tough competition. We'll see what the Zips can produce this week against Savannah State, losers of 41 straight games to schools at the FCS level and above, and possibly the worst defensive team in the entire FCS.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Don't overreact to the loss to Toledo. The Razorbacks had a subpar week of preparation prior to continuing their recent trend of poor play in Little Rock, and it bit them against a tough, well-coached outfit with an outstanding run defense and high confidence in its ability to take down big-name teams. The Hogs actually "out-statted" Toledo 515 yards to 318, and 30 first downs to 15, but suffered several injuries and a host of key penalties while putting on a clinic about the importance of finishing drives. Seven Arkansas possessions of at least seven plays penetrated Toledo territory, but one touchdown and a field goal was all the Razorbacks got out of them. This team is better than last year's formidable edition and capable of much more in the run game than it showed Saturday.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Leonte Carroo's suspension is the latest in a bad run of off-field incidents for Rutgers. We won't lay points with Penn State's anemic offense, but we are looking for an excuse to fade this team, and if Carroo is out long term, the Knights could throw in the towel on 2015 early. Six straight losses after the open date wouldn't be a surprise.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 3[/h]
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-5.5) at Army Black Knights
Wake has won all eight meetings since 1990, all but last year's by more than a field goal. This is the fourth straight year these two have played, and in the previous three, the Deacons have taken weak teams that ultimately won five, four and three games and beaten Army by 12, 14 and 3. We'd argue that Dave Clawson and Jeff Monken are taking their programs in opposite directions, and that the gap between these two is widening, not shrinking. Wake did lose again to a Syracuse outfit that has outscored them 73-24 since joining the ACC, but there were positive signs. This year has seen the first two 400-yard outputs of the Clawson era, and the defense has allowed just 21 first downs and two conversions on 22 third downs faced.
Ball State Cardinals (-6) at Eastern Michigan Eagles
This number was 13.5 in August, but Eastern opened the season with two straight covers, including a 48-29 romp at Wyoming last week, while Ball State is 0-2 ATS on the year. We like what Chris Creighton and his staff are doing in Ypsilanti, but have lots of faith in Pete Lembo and a Ball State outfit that wins the games it should win, and will be unstoppable offensively in this matchup.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+3) at Miami Hurricanes
It may be Mike Riley's third game in charge of his new team, but he and his staff will still provide Huskers backers a big edge on the sideline over Al Golden and a beleaguered Miami staff that has struggled to get results from its top talent. Anything more than a field goal seems generous, especially in a game that was priced as a pick 'em in August. Miami hasn't done anything inspiring since then, and the Canes already have lost two key players to season-ending injuries.
Ole Miss Rebels (+6) at Alabama Crimson Tide
We're not optimistic about Alabama's chances to defend its SEC title anyway, but it's certainly not going to happen with Jake Coker under center. The defensive front seven is the nation's best against the run, and a young receiving corps is a strength despite the loss of Biletnikoff winner Amari Cooper as well as the No. 2 and 3 receivers. The pass defense remains an issue, and the offensive line is still developing. But the Tide's main soft spot is at quarterback, where we're not buying the idea that a solid statistical performance against Wisconsin is indicative of what Coker can deliver against SEC defenses.
Ole Miss entered the season with the offensive backfield as the team's major question mark. Chad Kelly has answered the bell so far, and targets Cody Coreand Quincy Adeboyejo appear improved enough to complement Laquon Treadwell and Evan Engram. The keys to beating the Tide are to hold up on the defensive line and present more than two legitimate receiving threats. Ole Miss and Texas A&M both fit the profile.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]
If you played California over Texas in the preseason, you can now keep the ticket or buy back the Longhorns for a whopping 16.5-point middle. The season's biggest mover among the Westgate's Games of the Year by a wide margin, the Bears were 9.5-point underdogs to Texas at the end of August, 3.5-point underdogs a week ago, 3-point favorites at opening Sunday evening and 7-point favorites now.
Cal also saw its national championship odds at the Westgate drop from 1,000-1 last week to 300-1. That's not so much due to the 35-7 win over San Diego State, but because the oddsmakers have so dramatically adjusted their evaluation of the probability of Cal beating Texas and clearing what was once seen as a major schedule hurdle.
Other movers in the Westgate's playoff futures market: Michigan State fell from 20-1 to 10-1, while Oregon's price lengthened from 25-1 to 40-1. Interestingly, Tennessee fell only from 60-1 to 100-1, hardly the out-of-the-running price of 300-1 carried by other teams with one quality loss such as Wisconsin and Arizona State. And Oklahoma still hasn't moved from the 30-1 odds that were posted in August (pro tip: buy now).
Easy wins as big favorites in Week 2 reduced the odds for TCU (8-1 to 6-1), USC (15-1 to 12-1), Ole Miss (30-1 to 20-1), Baylor (12-1 to 10-1) and UCLA (30-1 to 20-1).
Auburn's near miss versus FCS Jacksonville State saw the Tigers drop from 15-1 to 30-1, while Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire's season-ending injury moved the Irish from 12-1 to 40-1.
There were few Week 3 games that rivaled the Cal-Texas move, but Clemson did open as 3.5-point favorites against Louisville Thursday and is now laying 6.5. Texas A&M opened at -27.5 hosting Nevada and is now at -33.5. Navy opened -1.5 at home versus East Carolina and quickly moved across a key number to -3.5.
Chalk bits
Since its last bowl team in 2010, Army is just 4-13 ATS in games that opened priced +3.5 to -3.5.
Ole Miss has been an SEC road underdog only twice the past two seasons. Every other SEC team except Alabama (none) and Georgia (once) had at least four chances in that role the past two years.
Since coming onto the Nevada rotation full time in 2013, Georgia State is 8-1 ATS when opening as a double-digit road underdog. Oregon is certainly off a draining game and a long road trip, but the Panthers' schedule must be considered as well. To Las Cruces, then back to Atlanta, then to Eugene -- that's a tough road sequence. Also, excepting the game after Chip Kelly's horrific debut in Boise and the bubble-burst stretch run of 2013, the Ducks have covered all five chances following regular-season losses in the Kelly-Helfrich era.
Georgia covered only three of its 12 meetings with Steve Spurrier-coached Florida teams, and has managed only two covers in 10 tries since the Head Ball Coach arrived in Columbia.
It's not often that teams meeting in the third week of the season already have a common opponent, but UTEP opened the 2015 season with road trips to Week 3 combatants Arkansas and Texas Tech. The Miners were outgained 490-204 as they fell 48-13 in Fayetteville taking 32 points, and were a 20-point 'dog last week when they were outgained 674-414 in a 69-20 loss in Lubbock.
Since Scott Loeffler took over as offensive coordinator to start the 2013 season, Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite and 3-12 as a favorite overall in FBS games.
Oklahoma and Michigan State won thrillers in the two biggest national games despite some ugly lapses; Arkansas suffered an embarrassing home loss while Auburn narrowly avoided a more embarrassing one; and Notre Dame, Utah and UNLV were the latest teams to lose starting quarterbacks to injury.
Ole Miss scored 70 points for the second straight week, while Boston College held Howard to 11 total yards. BYU won its second straight game on a desperation heave, joining Minnesota and Washington State as dramatic victors in Week 2. And Penn State didn't give up a single sack a week after allowing 10 to Temple.
Read on for more on the Razorbacks, Sooners and Gophers, as well as other Week 2 takeaways, plus a look ahead at what the early numbers tell us about the Week 3 slate.
Note: All lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday afternoon, except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways from Week 2[/h]
Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner threw for 233 yards on a career-high 45 attempts in an overtime win in Fort Collins, Colorado, including a 38-yard touchdown to tight end Drew Wolitarsky, and a go-ahead 22-yard score toKJ Maye with under a minute remaining. Critics point to<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> the Gophers' inability to throw the ball effectively, but remember that this team is coming off just its second back-to-back eight-win seasons since the Murray Warmath era, yet has not averaged even 170 passing yards in any of Jerry Kill's first four seasons.</offer>
In other words, like Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, Air Force and others, Minnesota does not depend on even average passing numbers for success. It's built to win without them, and early indications are that this offense will be just fine without tight end Maxx Williams and running back David Cobb, last year's two main weapons.
Minnesota didn't get 300 total yards from any wideout last year, and threw just four total touchdown passes to wide receivers in 2014. It remains to be seen if another wide receiver will emerge from what coaches continue to insist is the deepest and most talented group yet, but Maye has upped his game and appears an able replacement for Williams as the go-to guy in the passing game.
Leidner, while still pedestrian, is an improved thrower, and Wolitarsky has become a reliable target at tight end. Rodney Smith's emergence in the running game has been the best news of all. Further, the Gophers have played the first two games with an injury-wracked, reshuffled offensive line. They'll be even better when stability returns to the front. We still like this team to win an improved Big Ten West.
The comeback in Neyland Stadium sure looked like a championship moment. This team had everything it needed on the field already, and now it has the belief it can do anything. The Sooners stand at co-No. 1 in our power ratings along with Michigan State and Ohio State.
Akron hasn't gotten the offensive mastermind it thought it was getting in Terry Bowden. The offense has averaged just 380 yards and 23 points in Bowden's first three years, of which the first (2012) was by far the best. This year, a senior three-year starting quarterback hasn't been able to hold down the starting job, and the quarterbacks have combined for 13 completions in 48 attempts. Through two games, Akron boasts 10 points, 18 first downs and 336 total yards, to go with the 27 percent completion rate.
The Zips have been a popular dark horse pick in the MAC in each of the past two years, but it's evident that this offense has not made sufficient progress in Year 4 under Bowden and that the two poor showings to open 2015 are more than the product of tough competition. We'll see what the Zips can produce this week against Savannah State, losers of 41 straight games to schools at the FCS level and above, and possibly the worst defensive team in the entire FCS.
Don't overreact to the loss to Toledo. The Razorbacks had a subpar week of preparation prior to continuing their recent trend of poor play in Little Rock, and it bit them against a tough, well-coached outfit with an outstanding run defense and high confidence in its ability to take down big-name teams. The Hogs actually "out-statted" Toledo 515 yards to 318, and 30 first downs to 15, but suffered several injuries and a host of key penalties while putting on a clinic about the importance of finishing drives. Seven Arkansas possessions of at least seven plays penetrated Toledo territory, but one touchdown and a field goal was all the Razorbacks got out of them. This team is better than last year's formidable edition and capable of much more in the run game than it showed Saturday.
Leonte Carroo's suspension is the latest in a bad run of off-field incidents for Rutgers. We won't lay points with Penn State's anemic offense, but we are looking for an excuse to fade this team, and if Carroo is out long term, the Knights could throw in the towel on 2015 early. Six straight losses after the open date wouldn't be a surprise.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 3[/h]
Wake has won all eight meetings since 1990, all but last year's by more than a field goal. This is the fourth straight year these two have played, and in the previous three, the Deacons have taken weak teams that ultimately won five, four and three games and beaten Army by 12, 14 and 3. We'd argue that Dave Clawson and Jeff Monken are taking their programs in opposite directions, and that the gap between these two is widening, not shrinking. Wake did lose again to a Syracuse outfit that has outscored them 73-24 since joining the ACC, but there were positive signs. This year has seen the first two 400-yard outputs of the Clawson era, and the defense has allowed just 21 first downs and two conversions on 22 third downs faced.
This number was 13.5 in August, but Eastern opened the season with two straight covers, including a 48-29 romp at Wyoming last week, while Ball State is 0-2 ATS on the year. We like what Chris Creighton and his staff are doing in Ypsilanti, but have lots of faith in Pete Lembo and a Ball State outfit that wins the games it should win, and will be unstoppable offensively in this matchup.
It may be Mike Riley's third game in charge of his new team, but he and his staff will still provide Huskers backers a big edge on the sideline over Al Golden and a beleaguered Miami staff that has struggled to get results from its top talent. Anything more than a field goal seems generous, especially in a game that was priced as a pick 'em in August. Miami hasn't done anything inspiring since then, and the Canes already have lost two key players to season-ending injuries.
We're not optimistic about Alabama's chances to defend its SEC title anyway, but it's certainly not going to happen with Jake Coker under center. The defensive front seven is the nation's best against the run, and a young receiving corps is a strength despite the loss of Biletnikoff winner Amari Cooper as well as the No. 2 and 3 receivers. The pass defense remains an issue, and the offensive line is still developing. But the Tide's main soft spot is at quarterback, where we're not buying the idea that a solid statistical performance against Wisconsin is indicative of what Coker can deliver against SEC defenses.
Ole Miss entered the season with the offensive backfield as the team's major question mark. Chad Kelly has answered the bell so far, and targets Cody Coreand Quincy Adeboyejo appear improved enough to complement Laquon Treadwell and Evan Engram. The keys to beating the Tide are to hold up on the defensive line and present more than two legitimate receiving threats. Ole Miss and Texas A&M both fit the profile.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]
If you played California over Texas in the preseason, you can now keep the ticket or buy back the Longhorns for a whopping 16.5-point middle. The season's biggest mover among the Westgate's Games of the Year by a wide margin, the Bears were 9.5-point underdogs to Texas at the end of August, 3.5-point underdogs a week ago, 3-point favorites at opening Sunday evening and 7-point favorites now.
Cal also saw its national championship odds at the Westgate drop from 1,000-1 last week to 300-1. That's not so much due to the 35-7 win over San Diego State, but because the oddsmakers have so dramatically adjusted their evaluation of the probability of Cal beating Texas and clearing what was once seen as a major schedule hurdle.
Other movers in the Westgate's playoff futures market: Michigan State fell from 20-1 to 10-1, while Oregon's price lengthened from 25-1 to 40-1. Interestingly, Tennessee fell only from 60-1 to 100-1, hardly the out-of-the-running price of 300-1 carried by other teams with one quality loss such as Wisconsin and Arizona State. And Oklahoma still hasn't moved from the 30-1 odds that were posted in August (pro tip: buy now).
Easy wins as big favorites in Week 2 reduced the odds for TCU (8-1 to 6-1), USC (15-1 to 12-1), Ole Miss (30-1 to 20-1), Baylor (12-1 to 10-1) and UCLA (30-1 to 20-1).
Auburn's near miss versus FCS Jacksonville State saw the Tigers drop from 15-1 to 30-1, while Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire's season-ending injury moved the Irish from 12-1 to 40-1.
There were few Week 3 games that rivaled the Cal-Texas move, but Clemson did open as 3.5-point favorites against Louisville Thursday and is now laying 6.5. Texas A&M opened at -27.5 hosting Nevada and is now at -33.5. Navy opened -1.5 at home versus East Carolina and quickly moved across a key number to -3.5.
Chalk bits
Since its last bowl team in 2010, Army is just 4-13 ATS in games that opened priced +3.5 to -3.5.
Ole Miss has been an SEC road underdog only twice the past two seasons. Every other SEC team except Alabama (none) and Georgia (once) had at least four chances in that role the past two years.
Since coming onto the Nevada rotation full time in 2013, Georgia State is 8-1 ATS when opening as a double-digit road underdog. Oregon is certainly off a draining game and a long road trip, but the Panthers' schedule must be considered as well. To Las Cruces, then back to Atlanta, then to Eugene -- that's a tough road sequence. Also, excepting the game after Chip Kelly's horrific debut in Boise and the bubble-burst stretch run of 2013, the Ducks have covered all five chances following regular-season losses in the Kelly-Helfrich era.
Georgia covered only three of its 12 meetings with Steve Spurrier-coached Florida teams, and has managed only two covers in 10 tries since the Head Ball Coach arrived in Columbia.
It's not often that teams meeting in the third week of the season already have a common opponent, but UTEP opened the 2015 season with road trips to Week 3 combatants Arkansas and Texas Tech. The Miners were outgained 490-204 as they fell 48-13 in Fayetteville taking 32 points, and were a 20-point 'dog last week when they were outgained 674-414 in a 69-20 loss in Lubbock.
Since Scott Loeffler took over as offensive coordinator to start the 2013 season, Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite and 3-12 as a favorite overall in FBS games.
